Scenario Analysis of Indonesia's Energy Security by using a System-Dynamics Approach

Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.

Data Annotation Models and Annotation Query Language

This paper presents data annotation models at five levels of granularity (database, relation, column, tuple, and cell) of relational data to address the problem of unsuitability of most relational databases to express annotations. These models do not require any structural and schematic changes to the underlying database. These models are also flexible, extensible, customizable, database-neutral, and platform-independent. This paper also presents an SQL-like query language, named Annotation Query Language (AnQL), to query annotation documents. AnQL is simple to understand and exploits the already-existent wide knowledge and skill set of SQL.

Octonionic Reformulation of Vector Analysis

According to celebrated Hurwitz theorem, there exists four division algebras consisting of R (real numbers), C (complex numbers), H (quaternions) and O (octonions). Keeping in view the utility of octonion variable we have tried to extend the three dimensional vector analysis to seven dimensional one. Starting with the scalar and vector product in seven dimensions, we have redefined the gradient, divergence and curl in seven dimension. It is shown that the identity n(n - 1)(n - 3)(n - 7) = 0 is satisfied only for 0, 1, 3 and 7 dimensional vectors. We have tried to write all the vector inequalities and formulas in terms of seven dimensions and it is shown that same formulas loose their meaning in seven dimensions due to non-associativity of octonions. The vector formulas are retained only if we put certain restrictions on octonions and split octonions.

Study of Environmental Effects on Sunflower Oil Percent based on Graphical Method

Biplot can be used to evaluate cultivars for their oil percent potential and stability and to evaluate trial sites for their discriminating ability and representativeness. Multi-environmental trial (MET) data for oil percent of 10 open pollinating sunflower cultivars were analyzed to investigate the genotype-environment interactions. The genotypes were evaluated in four locations with different climatic conditions in Iran in 2010. In each location, a Randomized Complete Block design with four replications was used. According to both mean and stability, Zaria, Master and R453, had highest performances among all cultivars. The graphical analysis identified best cultivar for each environment. Cultivars Berezans and Record performed best in Khoy and Islamabad. Zaria and R453 were the best genotypes in Sari and Karaj followed by Master and Favorit. The GGE bi-plot indicated two mega-environments, group one contained Karaj, Khoy and Islamabad and the second group contained Sari. The best discriminating location was Karaj followed with Khoy, Islamabad and Sari. The best representative genotypes were Zaria, R453, Master and Favorit. Ranking of ten cultivars based their oil percent was as Zaria > R453 ≈ Master ≈ Favorit > Record ≈ Berezans > Sor > Lakumka > Bulg3 > Bulg5.

Comparative Study of Sustainable Architecture in Stairway-like Ushtobin Village, Iran

Stairway Ushtobin Village is one of the five villages with original and sustainable architecture in Northwest of Iran along the border of Armenia, which has been able to maintain its environment and sustainable ecosystem. Studying circulation, function and scale (grand, medium and minor) of space, ratio of full and empty spaces, number and height of stairs, ratio of compound volume to luxury spaces, openings, type of local masonry (stone, mud, wood) and form of covering elements have been carried out in four houses of this village comparatively as some samples in this article, and furthermore, this article analyzes that the architectural shapes and organic texture of the village meet the needs of cold and dry climate. Finally, some efficient plans are offered suiting the present needs of the village to have a sustainable architecture.

Sensorless Control of a Six-Phase Induction Motors Drive Using FOC in Stator Flux Reference Frame

In this paper, a direct torque control - space vector modulation (DTC-SVM) scheme is presented for a six-phase speed and voltage sensorless induction motor (IM) drive. The decoupled torque and stator flux control is achieved based on IM stator flux field orientation. The rotor speed is detected by on-line estimating of the rotor angular slip speed and stator vector flux speed. In addition, a simple method is introduced to estimate the stator resistance. Moreover in this control scheme the voltage sensors are eliminated and actual motor phase voltages are approximated by using PWM inverter switching times and the dc link voltage. Finally, some simulation and experimental results are presented to verify the effectiveness and capability of the proposed control scheme.

Properties of SMA Mixtures Containing Waste Polyethylene Terephthalate

Utilization of waste material in asphalt pavement would be beneficial in order to find an alternative solution to increase service life of asphalt pavement and reduce environmental pollution as well. One of these waste materials is Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) which is a type of polyester material and is produced in a large extent. This research program is investigating the effects of adding waste PET particles into the asphalt mixture with a maximum size of 2.36 mm. Different percentages of PET were added into the mixture during dry process. Gap-graded mixture (SMA 14) and PG 80-100 asphalt binder have been used for this study. To evaluate PET reinforced asphalt mixture different laboratory investigations have been conducted on specimens. Marshall Stability test was carried out. Besides, stiffness modulus test and indirect tensile fatigue test were conducted on specimens at optimum asphalt content. It was observed that in many cases PET reinforced SMA mixture had better mechanical properties in comparison with control mixture.

Some Reflexions on the Selfunderstanding of the Kazakh People: A Way of Building Identity in the Modern World

This article explores the self-identity of the Kazakh people by way of identifying the roots of self-understanding in Kazakh culture. Unfortunately, Western methods of ethno psychology cannot fully capture what is unique about identity in Kazakh culture. Although Kazakhstan is the ninth largest country in terms of geographical space, Kazakh cultural identity is not wellknown in the West. In this article we offer an account of the national psychological features of the Kazakh people, in order to reveal the spiritual, mental, ethical dimensions of modern Kazakhs. These factors play a central role in the revival of forms of identity that are central to the Kazakh people.

Vortex Formation in Lid-driven Cavity with Disturbance Block

In this paper, numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effect of disturbance block on flow field of the classical square lid-driven cavity. Attentions are focused on vortex formation and studying the effect of block position on its structure. Corner vortices are different upon block position and new vortices are produced because of the block. Finite volume method is used to solve Navier-Stokes equations and PISO algorithm is employed for the linkage of velocity and pressure. Verification and grid independency of results are reported. Stream lines are sketched to visualize vortex structure in different block positions.

Acquiring Contour Following Behaviour in Robotics through Q-Learning and Image-based States

In this work a visual and reactive contour following behaviour is learned by reinforcement. With artificial vision the environment is perceived in 3D, and it is possible to avoid obstacles that are invisible to other sensors that are more common in mobile robotics. Reinforcement learning reduces the need for intervention in behaviour design, and simplifies its adjustment to the environment, the robot and the task. In order to facilitate its generalisation to other behaviours and to reduce the role of the designer, we propose a regular image-based codification of states. Even though this is much more difficult, our implementation converges and is robust. Results are presented with a Pioneer 2 AT on a Gazebo 3D simulator.

Ultra-Precise Hybrid Lens Distortion Correction

A new hybrid method to realise high-precision distortion determination for optical ultra-precision 3D measurement systems based on stereo cameras using active light projection is introduced. It consists of two phases: the basic distortion determination and the refinement. The refinement phase of the procedure uses a plane surface and projected fringe patterns as calibration tools to determine simultaneously the distortion of both cameras within an iterative procedure. The new technique may be performed in the state of the device “ready for measurement" which avoids errors by a later adjustment. A considerable reduction of distortion errors is achieved and leads to considerable improvements of the accuracy of 3D measurements, especially in the precise measurement of smooth surfaces.

A Case Study of Applying Virtual Prototyping in Construction

The use of 3D computer-aided design (CAD) models to support construction project planning has been increasing in the previous year. 3D CAD models reveal more planning ideas by visually showing the construction site environment in different stages of the construction process. Using 3D CAD models together with scheduling software to prepare construction plan can identify errors in process sequence and spatial arrangement, which is vital to the success of a construction project. A number of 4D (3D plus time) CAD tools has been developed and utilized in different construction projects due to the awareness of their importance. Virtual prototyping extends the idea of 4D CAD by integrating more features for simulating real construction process. Virtual prototyping originates from the manufacturing industry where production of products such as cars and airplanes are virtually simulated in computer before they are built in the factory. Virtual prototyping integrates 3D CAD, simulation engine, analysis tools (like structural analysis and collision detection), and knowledgebase to streamline the whole product design and production process. In this paper, we present the application of a virtual prototyping software which has been used in a few construction projects in Hong Kong to support construction project planning. Specifically, the paper presents an implementation of virtual prototyping in a residential building project in Hong Kong. The applicability, difficulties and benefits of construction virtual prototyping are examined based on this project.

Improving the Convergence of the Backpropagation Algorithm Using Local Adaptive Techniques

Since the presentation of the backpropagation algorithm, a vast variety of improvements of the technique for training a feed forward neural networks have been proposed. This article focuses on two classes of acceleration techniques, one is known as Local Adaptive Techniques that are based on weightspecific only, such as the temporal behavior of the partial derivative of the current weight. The other, known as Dynamic Adaptation Methods, which dynamically adapts the momentum factors, α, and learning rate, η, with respect to the iteration number or gradient. Some of most popular learning algorithms are described. These techniques have been implemented and tested on several problems and measured in terms of gradient and error function evaluation, and percentage of success. Numerical evidence shows that these techniques improve the convergence of the Backpropagation algorithm.

A 3rd order 3bit Sigma-Delta Modulator with Reduced Delay Time of Data Weighted Averaging

This paper presents a method of reducing the feedback delay time of DWA(Data Weighted Averaging) used in sigma-delta modulators. The delay time reduction results from the elimination of the latch at the quantizer output and also from the falling edge operation. The designed sigma-delta modulator improves the timing margin about 16%. The sub-circuits of sigma-delta modulator such as SC(Switched Capacitor) integrator, 9-level quantizer, comparator, and DWA are designed with the non-ideal characteristics taken into account. The sigma-delta modulator has a maximum SNR (Signal to Noise Ratio) of 84 dB or 13 bit resolution.

Nonfactorizable Contributions to Weak D →ππ Decay Modes

We investigate nonfactorizable contributions to D → ¤Ç¤Ç decay modes. We perform isospin analysis of the nonfactorizable contributions to these decays. Obtaining the factorizable contributions from spectator-quark diagrams using = 3 C N , we determine nonfactorizable amplitudes for these decays and predict their branching ratios.

Machine Learning in Production Systems Design Using Genetic Algorithms

To create a solution for a specific problem in machine learning, the solution is constructed from the data or by use a search method. Genetic algorithms are a model of machine learning that can be used to find nearest optimal solution. While the great advantage of genetic algorithms is the fact that they find a solution through evolution, this is also the biggest disadvantage. Evolution is inductive, in nature life does not evolve towards a good solution but it evolves away from bad circumstances. This can cause a species to evolve into an evolutionary dead end. In order to reduce the effect of this disadvantage we propose a new a learning tool (criteria) which can be included into the genetic algorithms generations to compare the previous population and the current population and then decide whether is effective to continue with the previous population or the current population, the proposed learning tool is called as Keeping Efficient Population (KEP). We applied a GA based on KEP to the production line layout problem, as a result KEP keep the evaluation direction increases and stops any deviation in the evaluation.

Cubic Splines and Fourier Series Approach to Study Temperature Variation in Dermal Layers of Elliptical Shaped Human Limbs

An attempt has been made to develop a seminumerical model to study temperature variations in dermal layers of human limbs. The model has been developed for two dimensional steady state case. The human limb has been assumed to have elliptical cross section. The dermal region has been divided into three natural layers namely epidermis, dermis and subdermal tissues. The model incorporates the effect of important physiological parameters like blood mass flow rate, metabolic heat generation, and thermal conductivity of the tissues. The outer surface of the limb is exposed to the environment and it is assumed that heat loss takes place at the outer surface by conduction, convection, radiation, and evaporation. The temperature of inner core of the limb also varies at the lower atmospheric temperature. Appropriate boundary conditions have been framed based on the physical conditions of the problem. Cubic splines approach has been employed along radial direction and Fourier series along angular direction to obtain the solution. The numerical results have been computed for different values of eccentricity resembling with the elliptic cross section of the human limbs. The numerical results have been used to obtain the temperature profile and to study the relationships among the various physiological parameters.

Interrelationships between Physicochemical Water Pollution Indicators: A Case Study of River Pandu

Water samples were collected from river Pandu at six stations where human and animal activities were high. Composite samples were analyzed for dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD) , pH values during dry and wet seasons as well as the harmattan period. The total data points were used to establish relationships between the parameters and data were also subjected to statistical analysis and expressed as mean ± standard error of mean (SEM) at a level of significance of p

Influence of Various Factors on Stability of CoSPc in LPG Sweetening Process

IFP Group Technology “Sulfrex process" was used in Iran-s South Pars Gas Complex Refineries for removing sulfur compounds such as mercaptans, carbonyl sulfide and hydrogen sulfide, which uses sulfonated cobalt phthalocyanine dispersed in alkaline solution as catalyst. In this technology, catalyst and alkaline solution were used circularly. However the stability of catalyst due to effect of some parameters would reduce with the running of the unit and therefore sweetening efficiency would be decreased. Hence, the aim of this research is study the factors effecting on the stability of catalyst.

A Hybrid Neural Network and Traditional Approach for Forecasting Lumpy Demand

Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy. In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed, which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.