Scenario Analysis of Indonesia's Energy Security by using a System-Dynamics Approach
Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.
[1] ADB, 2009a. Asian Development Outlook 2009 Update: Broadening
Openness for a Resilient Asia.
[2] ADB, 2009b, Energy Statistics in Asia and the Pacific.
[3] Affeldt J.F., Hamilton B.A., 2006, The application of system dynamics
(SD) simulation to volatile system management, Proceeding: The 24th
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Nijmegen.
[4] Alhajji, A.F., James L. Williams, 2003. Measures of Petroleum
Dependence and Vulnerability in OECD Countries. Middle East
Economic Survey, 46:16, http://www.wtrg.com/oecd/OECD0304.html
accessed: 20 February 2010.
[5] APERC, 2009, APEC Energy Overview 2008.
[6] APO, 2009, APO Productivity Databook 2009.
[7] Atje, R and Hapsari, I., 2008, Energy Security: An Indonesian
Perspective, Vision from Asia and Europe.
[8] BP. 2008. BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
[9] Chester, L., 2009, Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its
polysemic nature. Energy Policy.
[10] EU Commision Council Directive 2006/67/EC retrieved from http://ec.
europa.eu/energy/security/oil_en. Htm
[11] Kruyt, B., van Vuuren, D.P., de Vries, H.J.M., Groenenberg H., 2009,
Indicators for energy security .Energy Policy, 37 (2009) 2166-2181
[12] Lardic, S., Mignon, V, 2006, The impact of oil prices on GDP in
European countries An empirical investigation based on asymmetric
cointegration, Energy Policy Vol.34.
[13] Lee, C, 2005, Energy consumption and GDP in developingcountries: A
cointegrated panel analysis, Energy Economics.
[14] Lee, C, Chang C, 2008, Energy consumption and economic growth in
Asian economies: A more comprehensive
analysis using panel data, Resource and Energy Economics.
[15] Radzicki M.J., Taylor R.A., 2010, "Origin of System Dynamics: Jay W.
Forrester and the History of System Dynamics". In: U.S. Department of
Energy's Introduction to System Dynamics. accessed 19 June 2010.
[16] Sovacool, Benjamin K., Brown, Marilyn A., 2009, Competing
Dimensions of Energy Security: An International Perspective. Working
Paper #45, Ivan Allen College School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute
of Technology, Atlanta.
[17] Scheepers, M.J.J., Seebregts, A.J., de Jong, J.J., Maters, J.M., 2007. EU
Standards for Energy Security of Supply-Updates on the Crisis Capability
Index and the Supply/Demand Index Quantification for EU-27.
ECN-E-07-004.
[18] The Central Bank of Republic of Indonesia, 2006, Oil Dependency and
Energy Policy in Indonesia, Working Paper WP/10/2006.
[19] United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), 2005,
Capability Building For Catching-Up: Historical, Empirical And Policy
Dimensions. Industrial Development Report. United Nations
[20] Von Hippel D., Suzuki T., Williams J.H., Savage T., Hayes P., 2009,
Energy security and sustainability in Northeast Asia. Energy Policy,.
[21] Winz I., Brierley G., Trowsdale S., 20069, The Use of System Dynamics
Simulation in Water Resource Management. Water Resource
Management.
[1] ADB, 2009a. Asian Development Outlook 2009 Update: Broadening
Openness for a Resilient Asia.
[2] ADB, 2009b, Energy Statistics in Asia and the Pacific.
[3] Affeldt J.F., Hamilton B.A., 2006, The application of system dynamics
(SD) simulation to volatile system management, Proceeding: The 24th
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Nijmegen.
[4] Alhajji, A.F., James L. Williams, 2003. Measures of Petroleum
Dependence and Vulnerability in OECD Countries. Middle East
Economic Survey, 46:16, http://www.wtrg.com/oecd/OECD0304.html
accessed: 20 February 2010.
[5] APERC, 2009, APEC Energy Overview 2008.
[6] APO, 2009, APO Productivity Databook 2009.
[7] Atje, R and Hapsari, I., 2008, Energy Security: An Indonesian
Perspective, Vision from Asia and Europe.
[8] BP. 2008. BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
[9] Chester, L., 2009, Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its
polysemic nature. Energy Policy.
[10] EU Commision Council Directive 2006/67/EC retrieved from http://ec.
europa.eu/energy/security/oil_en. Htm
[11] Kruyt, B., van Vuuren, D.P., de Vries, H.J.M., Groenenberg H., 2009,
Indicators for energy security .Energy Policy, 37 (2009) 2166-2181
[12] Lardic, S., Mignon, V, 2006, The impact of oil prices on GDP in
European countries An empirical investigation based on asymmetric
cointegration, Energy Policy Vol.34.
[13] Lee, C, 2005, Energy consumption and GDP in developingcountries: A
cointegrated panel analysis, Energy Economics.
[14] Lee, C, Chang C, 2008, Energy consumption and economic growth in
Asian economies: A more comprehensive
analysis using panel data, Resource and Energy Economics.
[15] Radzicki M.J., Taylor R.A., 2010, "Origin of System Dynamics: Jay W.
Forrester and the History of System Dynamics". In: U.S. Department of
Energy's Introduction to System Dynamics. accessed 19 June 2010.
[16] Sovacool, Benjamin K., Brown, Marilyn A., 2009, Competing
Dimensions of Energy Security: An International Perspective. Working
Paper #45, Ivan Allen College School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute
of Technology, Atlanta.
[17] Scheepers, M.J.J., Seebregts, A.J., de Jong, J.J., Maters, J.M., 2007. EU
Standards for Energy Security of Supply-Updates on the Crisis Capability
Index and the Supply/Demand Index Quantification for EU-27.
ECN-E-07-004.
[18] The Central Bank of Republic of Indonesia, 2006, Oil Dependency and
Energy Policy in Indonesia, Working Paper WP/10/2006.
[19] United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), 2005,
Capability Building For Catching-Up: Historical, Empirical And Policy
Dimensions. Industrial Development Report. United Nations
[20] Von Hippel D., Suzuki T., Williams J.H., Savage T., Hayes P., 2009,
Energy security and sustainability in Northeast Asia. Energy Policy,.
[21] Winz I., Brierley G., Trowsdale S., 20069, The Use of System Dynamics
Simulation in Water Resource Management. Water Resource
Management.
@article{"International Journal of Business, Human and Social Sciences:59874", author = "Yudha Prambudia and Masaru Nakano", title = "Scenario Analysis of Indonesia's Energy Security by using a System-Dynamics Approach", abstract = "Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.
", keywords = "Energy security, modeling, simulation, system dynamics.", volume = "4", number = "12", pages = "2276-6", }
