Abstract: In fields such as neuroscience and especially in cognition modeling of mental processes, uncertainty processing in temporal zone of signal is vital. In this paper, Bayesian online inferences in estimation of change-points location in signal are constructed. This method separated the observed signal into independent series and studies the change and variation of the regime of data locally with related statistical characteristics. We give conditions on simulations of the method when the data characteristics of signals vary, and provide empirical evidence to show the performance of method. It is verified that correlation between series around the change point location and its characteristics such as Signal to Noise Ratios and mean value of signal has important factor on fluctuating in finding proper location of change point. And one of the main contributions of this study is related to representing of these influences of signal statistical characteristics for finding abrupt variation in signal. There are two different structures for simulations which in first case one abrupt change in temporal section of signal is considered with variable position and secondly multiple variations are considered. Finally, influence of statistical characteristic for changing the location of change point is explained in details in simulation results with different artificial signals.
Abstract: Modeling dam-break flows over non-flat beds requires
an accurate representation of the topography which is the main
source of uncertainty in the model. Therefore, developing robust
and accurate techniques for reconstructing topography in this class
of problems would reduce the uncertainty in the flow system. In
many hydraulic applications, experimental techniques have been
widely used to measure the bed topography. In practice, experimental
work in hydraulics may be very demanding in both time and cost.
Meanwhile, computational hydraulics have served as an alternative
for laboratory and field experiments. Unlike the forward problem,
the inverse problem is used to identify the bed parameters from the
given experimental data. In this case, the shallow water equations
used for modeling the hydraulics need to be rearranged in a way
that the model parameters can be evaluated from measured data.
However, this approach is not always possible and it suffers from
stability restrictions. In the present work, we propose an adaptive
optimal control technique to numerically identify the underlying bed
topography from a given set of free-surface observation data. In this
approach, a minimization function is defined to iteratively determine
the model parameters. The proposed technique can be interpreted
as a fractional-stage scheme. In the first stage, the forward problem
is solved to determine the measurable parameters from known data.
In the second stage, the adaptive control Ensemble Kalman Filter is
implemented to combine the optimality of observation data in order to
obtain the accurate estimation of the topography. The main features
of this method are on one hand, the ability to solve for different
complex geometries with no need for any rearrangements in the
original model to rewrite it in an explicit form. On the other hand, its
achievement of strong stability for simulations of flows in different
regimes containing shocks or discontinuities over any geometry.
Numerical results are presented for a dam-break flow problem over
non-flat bed using different solvers for the shallow water equations.
The robustness of the proposed method is investigated using different
numbers of loops, sensitivity parameters, initial samples and location
of observations. The obtained results demonstrate high reliability and
accuracy of the proposed techniques.
Abstract: In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested
in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate
these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated
with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order
statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order
statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places
with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson
Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated
assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions.
Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations
of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number
of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original
place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts
the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly
outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place
increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the
log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola
2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be
highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5%
of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model
exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear
regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.
Abstract: The seismic forces caused by the waves created in the depths of the earth during the earthquake hit the structure and cause the building to vibrate. Creating large seismic forces will cause low-strength sections in the structure to suffer extensive surface damage. The use of new steel shear walls in steel structures has caused the strength of the building and its main members (columns) to increase due to the reduction and depreciation of seismic forces during earthquakes. In the present study, an attempt was made to evaluate a type of steel shear wall that has regular holes in the inner sheet by modeling the finite element model with Abacus software. The shear wall of the steel plate, measuring 6000 × 3000 mm (one floor) and 3 mm thickness, was modeled with four different pores with a cross-sectional area. The shear wall was dynamically subjected to a time history of 5 seconds by three accelerators, El Centro, Imperial Valley and Kobe. The results showed that increasing the distance between the geometric center of the hole and the geometric center of the inner plate in the steel shear wall (increasing the RCS index) caused the total maximum acceleration to be transferred from the perimeter of the hole to horizontal and vertical beams. The results also show that there is no direct relationship between RCS index and total acceleration in steel shear wall and RCS index is separate from the peak ground acceleration value of earthquake.
Abstract: This study aims to investigate the amount of energy (economic wave energy potential) that can be obtained from the existing wave energy converters in the high wave energy potential region of the Black Sea in terms of wave energy potential and their performance at different depths in the region. The data needed for this purpose were obtained using the calibrated nested layered SWAN wave modeling program version 41.01AB, which was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) winds from 1979 to 2009. The wave dataset at a time interval of 2 hours was accumulated for a sub-grid domain for around Karaburun beach in Arnavutkoy, a district of Istanbul city. The annual sea state characteristic matrices for the five different depths along with a vertical line to the coastline were calculated for 31 years. According to the power matrices of different wave energy converter systems and characteristic matrices for each possible installation depth, the probability distribution tables of the specified mean wave period or wave energy period and significant wave height were calculated. Then, by using the relationship between these distribution tables, according to the present wave climate, the energy that the wave energy converter systems at each depth can produce was determined. Thus, the economically feasible potential of the relevant coastal zone was revealed, and the effect of different depths on energy converter systems is presented. The Oceantic at 50, 75 and 100 m depths and Oyster at 5 and 25 m depths presents the best performance. In the 31-year long period 1998 the most and 1989 is the least dynamic year.
Abstract: In this study, scanned data of a damaged femur diaphysis are used to generate three dimensional model of the bone. Further, customized implant of Hydroxyapatite-Polyetheretherketone (HA-PEEK) material for this damaged bone is prepared using CAD modeling. Damaged bone and implant have been assembled to prepare the intact bone. This assembled model has been analyzed to evaluate the stresses and deformation developed during the static loading. It has been observed that these stresses and deformation are very less thus imply that the proposed method of preparing implant is appropriate.
Abstract: Stainless steel pipelines are crucial components to transportation and storage in the oil and gas industry. However, the rise of random attacks and vandalism on these pipes for their valuable transport has led to more security and protection for incoming surface impacts. These surface impacts can lead to large global deformations of the pipe and place the pipe under strain, causing the eventual failure of the pipeline. Therefore, understanding how these surface impact loads affect the pipes is vital to improving the pipes’ security and protection. In this study, experimental test and finite element analysis (FEA) have been carried out on EN3B stainless steel specimens to study the impact behaviour. Low velocity impact tests at 9 m/s with 16 kg dome impactor was used to simulate for high momentum impact for localised failure. FEA models of clamped and deformable boundaries were modelled to study the effect of the boundaries on the pipes impact behaviour on its impact resistance, using experimental and FEA approach. Comparison of experimental and FE simulation shows good correlation to the deformable boundaries in order to validate the robustness of the FE model to be implemented in pipe models with complex anisotropic structure.
Abstract: Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.
Abstract: Engagement is one of the most important factors in determining successful outcomes and deep learning in students. Existing approaches to detect student engagement involve periodic human observations that are subject to inter-rater reliability. Our solution uses real-time multimodal multisensor data labeled by objective performance outcomes to infer the engagement of students. The study involves four students with a combined diagnosis of cerebral palsy and a learning disability who took part in a 3-month trial over 59 sessions. Multimodal multisensor data were collected while they participated in a continuous performance test. Eye gaze, electroencephalogram, body pose, and interaction data were used to create a model of student engagement through objective labeling from the continuous performance test outcomes. In order to achieve this, a type of continuous performance test is introduced, the Seek-X type. Nine features were extracted including high-level handpicked compound features. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, a series of different machine learning approaches were evaluated. Overall, the random forest classification approach achieved the best classification results. Using random forest, 93.3% classification for engagement and 42.9% accuracy for disengagement were achieved. We compared these results to outcomes from different models: AdaBoost, decision tree, k-Nearest Neighbor, naïve Bayes, neural network, and support vector machine. We showed that using a multisensor approach achieved higher accuracy than using features from any reduced set of sensors. We found that using high-level handpicked features can improve the classification accuracy in every sensor mode. Our approach is robust to both sensor fallout and occlusions. The single most important sensor feature to the classification of engagement and distraction was shown to be eye gaze. It has been shown that we can accurately predict the level of engagement of students with learning disabilities in a real-time approach that is not subject to inter-rater reliability, human observation or reliant on a single mode of sensor input. This will help teachers design interventions for a heterogeneous group of students, where teachers cannot possibly attend to each of their individual needs. Our approach can be used to identify those with the greatest learning challenges so that all students are supported to reach their full potential.
Abstract: Jet grouting (JG) is one of the methods of improving and increasing the strength and bearing of soil in which the high pressure water or grout is injected through the nozzles into the soil. During this process, a part of the soil and grout particles comes out of the drill borehole, and the other part is mixed up with the grout in place, as a result of this process, a mass of modified soil is created. The purpose of this method is to change the soil into a mixture of soil and cement, commonly known as "soil-cement". In this paper, first, the principles of high pressure injection and then the effective parameters in the JG method are described. Then, the tests on the samples taken from the columns formed from the excavation around the soil-cement columns, as well as the static loading test on the created column, are discussed. In the other part of this paper, the soil behavior models for numerical modeling in PLAXIS software are mentioned. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the results of numerical modeling based on in-situ static loading tests. The results indicate an acceptable agreement between the results of the tests mentioned and the modeling results. Also, modeling with this software as an appropriate option for technical feasibility can be used to soil improvement using JG.
Abstract: In this paper, a longitudinal and lateral control approach
based on a nonlinear observer is proposed for a convoy of autonomous
vehicles to follow a desired trajectory. To authors best knowledge,
this topic has not yet been sufficiently addressed in the literature
for the control of multi vehicles. The modeling of the convoy
of the vehicles is revisited using a robotic method for simulation
purposes and control design. With these models, a sliding mode
observer is proposed to estimate the states of each vehicle in the
convoy from the available sensors, then a sliding mode control
based on this observer is used to control the longitudinal and lateral
movement. The validation and performance evaluation are done using
the well-known driving simulator Scanner-Studio. The results are
presented for different maneuvers of 5 vehicles.
Abstract: There are currently many people living with limb loss in the USA. The main causes for amputation can range from vascular disease, to trauma, or cancer. This number is expected increase over the next decade. Many patients have a single prosthetic for the first year but end up getting a second one to accommodate their changing physique. Afterwards, the prosthesis gets replaced every three to five years depending on how often it is used. This could cost the patient up to $500,000 throughout their lifetime. Complications do not end there, however. Due to the absence of nerves, it becomes more difficult to traverse terrain with a prosthetic. Moving on an incline or decline becomes difficult, thus curbs and stairs can be a challenge. Certain physical activities, such as cycling, could be even more strenuous. It will need to be relearned to accommodate for the change in weight, center of gravity, and transfer of energy from the leg to the pedal. The purpose of this research project is to develop a new, alternate below-knee cycling prosthetic using Dieter & Schmidt’s design process approach. It will be subjected to fatigue analysis under dynamic loading to observe the limitations as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the prosthetic. Benchmark comparisons will be made between existing prosthetics and the proposed one, examining the benefits and disadvantages. The resulting prosthetic will be 3D printed using acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) or polycarbonate (PC) plastic.
Abstract: This paper presents modeling and control strategy for the grid connected wind turbine system based on Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG). The considered system is based on back-to-back converter topology. The Grid Side Converter (GSC) achieves the DC bus voltage control and unity power factor. The Machine Side Converter (MSC) assures the PMSG speed control. The PMSG is used as a variable speed generator and connected directly to the turbine without gearbox. The pitch angle control is not either considered in this study. Further, Optimal Tip Speed Ratio (OTSR) based MPPT control strategy is used to ensure the most energy efficiency whatever the wind speed variations. A filter (L) is put between the GSC and the grid to reduce current ripple and to improve the injected power quality. The proposed grid connected wind system is built under MATLAB/Simulink environment. The simulation results show the feasibility of the proposed topology and performance of its control strategies.
Abstract: A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.
Abstract: Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy coupled with chemometrics was used to distinguish between butter samples and non-butter samples. Further, quantification of the content of margarine in adulterated butter samples was investigated. Fingerprinting region (1400-800 cm–1) was used to develop unsupervised pattern recognition (Principal Component Analysis, PCA), supervised modeling (Soft Independent Modelling by Class Analogy, SIMCA), classification (Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis, PLS-DA) and regression (Partial Least Squares Regression, PLS-R) models. PCA of the fingerprinting region shows a clustering of the two sample types. All samples were classified in their rightful class by SIMCA approach; however, nine adulterated samples (between 1% and 30% w/w of margarine) were classified as belonging both at the butter class and at the non-butter one. In the two-class PLS-DA model’s (R2 = 0.73, RMSEP, Root Mean Square Error of Prediction = 0.26% w/w) sensitivity was 71.4% and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 100%. Its threshold was calculated at 7% w/w of margarine in adulterated butter samples. Finally, PLS-R model (R2 = 0.84, RMSEP = 16.54%) was developed. PLS-DA was a suitable classification tool and PLS-R a proper quantification approach. Results demonstrate that FT-IR spectroscopy combined with PLS-R can be used as a rapid, simple and safe method to identify pure butter samples from adulterated ones and to determine the grade of adulteration of margarine in butter samples.
Abstract: Distal femur fractures are the cause of abnormal gloomy. Several types of surgical treatments have been adopted by the practitioners to restore the fractured region of distal femur. Still within this domain of study, unstable fixation remains a challenge for orthopedists. In the present study, a fixation implant is designed and analyzed under physiological loading conditions for cobalt-chromium-molybdenum alloy (Co-Cr-Mo). It has been found that the stresses and deformation developed are quite low. It means that customized fixation plates will provide stable fixation resulting in improved fracture union.
Abstract: In this paper, natural convection in an attic is numerically investigated. The geometry of the problem is considered to be a triangular enclosure. ANSYS Fluent software is used for modeling and numerical solution. This study is for steady state. Four right-angled triangles with height to base ratios of 2, 1, 0.5 and 0.25 are considered. The behavior of various parameters related to its performance, including temperature distribution and velocity vectors are evaluated, and graphs for the Nusselt number have been drawn. Also, in this study, the effect of geometric shape of enclosure with different height-to-base ratios has been evaluated for three types of boundary conditions of winter, summer day and one another state. It can be concluded that as the bottom side temperature and ratio of base to height of the enclosure increases, the convective effects become more prominent and circulation happened.
Abstract: This paper comprehensively investigates current
development status of global power grids and fossil energy pipelines
(oil and natural gas), proposes a standard visual platform of global
power and fossil energy based on Geographic Information System
(GIS) technology. In this visual platform, a series of systematic
visual models is proposed with global spatial data, systematic
energy and power parameters. Under this visual platform, the
current Global Power Grids Map and Global Fossil Energy Pipelines
Map are plotted within more than 140 countries and regions
across the world. Using the multi-scale fusion data processing
and modeling methods, the world’s global fossil energy pipelines
and power grids information system basic database is established,
which provides important data supporting global fossil energy and
electricity research. Finally, through the systematic and comparative
study of global fossil energy pipelines and global power grids, the
general status of global fossil energy and electricity development
are reviewed, and energy transition in key areas are evaluated and
analyzed. Through the comparison analysis of fossil energy and
clean energy, the direction of relevant research is pointed out for
clean development and energy transition.
Abstract: The biochemical industry is one of the most important modern industries. Biochemical reactors are crucial devices of the biochemical industry. The essential bioprocess carried out in bioreactors is the fermentation process. A thorough insight into the fermentation process and the knowledge how to control it are essential for effective use of bioreactors to produce high quality and quantitatively enough products. The development of the control system starts with the determination of a mathematical model that describes the steady state and dynamic properties of the controlled plant satisfactorily, and is suitable for the development of the control system. The paper analyses the fermentation process in bioreactors thoroughly, using existing mathematical models. Most existing mathematical models do not allow the design of a control system for controlling the fermentation process in batch bioreactors. Due to this, a mathematical model was developed and presented that allows the development of a control system for batch bioreactors. Based on the developed mathematical model, a control system was designed to ensure optimal response of the biochemical quantities in the fermentation process. Due to the time-varying and non-linear nature of the controlled plant, the conventional control system with a proportional-integral-differential controller with constant parameters does not provide the desired transient response. The improved adaptive control system was proposed to improve the dynamics of the fermentation. The use of the adaptive control is suggested because the parameters’ variations of the fermentation process are very slow. The developed control system was tested to produce dairy products in the laboratory bioreactor. A carbon dioxide concentration was chosen as the controlled variable. The carbon dioxide concentration correlates well with the other, for the quality of the fermentation process in significant quantities. The level of the carbon dioxide concentration gives important information about the fermentation process. The obtained results showed that the designed control system provides minimum error between reference and actual values of carbon dioxide concentration during a transient response and in a steady state. The recommended control system makes reference signal tracking much more efficient than the currently used conventional control systems which are based on linear control theory. The proposed control system represents a very effective solution for the improvement of the milk fermentation process.
Abstract: Due to the need for a rigorous mathematical model that can help to estimate kinetic properties for soluble-insoluble systems, through voltammetric experiments, a Nicholson Semi Analytical Approach was used in this work for modeling and prediction of theoretical linear sweep voltammetry responses for reversible, quasi reversible or irreversible electron transfer reactions. The redox system of interest is a one-step metal electrodeposition process. A rigorous analysis of simulated linear scan voltammetric responses following variation of dimensionless factors, the rate constant and charge transfer coefficients in a broad range was studied and presented in the form of the so called kinetic zones diagrams. These kinetic diagrams were divided into three kinetics zones. Interpreting these zones leads to empirical mathematical models which can allow the experimenter to determine electrodeposition reactions kinetics whatever the degree of reversibility. The validity of the obtained results was tested and an excellent experiment–theory agreement has been showed.