Abstract: The study is aimed to test causal relationship between
growth and unemployment, using time series data for Pakistan from
1972 to 2006. Growth is considered to be a pathway to decrease the
level of unemployment. Unemployment is a social and political
issue. It is a phenomenon where human resources are wasted leading
to deacceleration in growth. Johanson Cointegration shows that there
is long run relationship between growth and unemployment. For
short run dynamics and causality, the study utilizes Vector Error
Correction Model (VECM). The results of VECM indicate that there
is short and long run causal relation between growth and
unemployment including capital, labor and human capital as
explanatory variables.
Abstract: One of the essential components of much of DSP
application is noise cancellation. Changes in real time signals are
quite rapid and swift. In noise cancellation, a reference signal which
is an approximation of noise signal (that corrupts the original
information signal) is obtained and then subtracted from the noise
bearing signal to obtain a noise free signal. This approximation of
noise signal is obtained through adaptive filters which are self
adjusting. As the changes in real time signals are abrupt, this needs
adaptive algorithm that converges fast and is stable. Least mean
square (LMS) and normalized LMS (NLMS) are two widely used
algorithms because of their plainness in calculations and
implementation. But their convergence rates are small. Adaptive
averaging filters (AFA) are also used because they have high
convergence, but they are less stable. This paper provides the
comparative study of LMS and Normalized NLMS, AFA and new
enhanced average adaptive (Average NLMS-ANLMS) filters for noise
cancelling application using speech signals.
Abstract: Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.
Abstract: Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.
Abstract: The main focus of this paper is on the human induced
forces. Almost all existing force models for this type of load (defined
either in the time or frequency domain) are developed from the
assumption of perfect periodicity of the force and are based on force
measurements conducted on rigid (i.e. high frequency) surfaces. To
verify the different authors conclusions the vertical pressure
measurements invoked during the walking was performed, using
pressure gauges in various configurations. The obtained forces are
analyzed using Fourier transformation. This load is often decisive in
the design of footbridges. Design criteria and load models proposed
by widely used standards and other researchers were introduced and a
comparison was made.
Abstract: Speckled images arise when coherent microwave,
optical, and acoustic imaging techniques are used to image an object, surface or scene. Examples of coherent imaging systems include synthetic aperture radar, laser imaging systems, imaging sonar
systems, and medical ultrasound systems. Speckle noise is a form of object or target induced noise that results when the surface of the object is Rayleigh rough compared to the wavelength of the illuminating radiation. Detection and estimation in images corrupted
by speckle noise is complicated by the nature of the noise and is not
as straightforward as detection and estimation in additive noise. In
this work, we derive stochastic models for speckle noise, with an emphasis on speckle as it arises in medical ultrasound images. The
motivation for this work is the problem of segmentation and tissue classification using ultrasound imaging. Modeling of speckle in this
context involves partially developed speckle model where an underlying Poisson point process modulates a Gram-Charlier series
of Laguerre weighted exponential functions, resulting in a doubly
stochastic filtered Poisson point process. The statistical distribution of partially developed speckle is derived in a closed canonical form.
It is observed that as the mean number of scatterers in a resolution cell is increased, the probability density function approaches an
exponential distribution. This is consistent with fully developed speckle noise as demonstrated by the Central Limit theorem.
Abstract: Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic metabolic disorder, where the improper management of the blood glucose level in the diabetic patients will lead to the risk of heart attack, kidney disease and renal failure. This paper attempts to enhance the diagnostic accuracy of the advancing blood glucose levels of the diabetic patients, by combining principal component analysis and wavelet neural network. The proposed system makes separate blood glucose prediction in the morning, afternoon, evening and night intervals, using dataset from one patient covering a period of 77 days. Comparisons of the diagnostic accuracy with other neural network models, which use the same dataset are made. The comparison results showed overall improved accuracy, which indicates the effectiveness of this proposed system.
Abstract: Recently, genetic algorithms (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique have attracted considerable attention among various modern heuristic optimization techniques. Since the two approaches are supposed to find a solution to a given objective function but employ different strategies and computational effort, it is appropriate to compare their performance. This paper presents the application and performance comparison of PSO and GA optimization techniques, for Thyristor Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC)-based controller design. The design objective is to enhance the power system stability. The design problem of the FACTS-based controller is formulated as an optimization problem and both the PSO and GA optimization techniques are employed to search for optimal controller parameters. The performance of both optimization techniques in terms of computational time and convergence rate is compared. Further, the optimized controllers are tested on a weakly connected power system subjected to different disturbances, and their performance is compared with the conventional power system stabilizer (CPSS). The eigenvalue analysis and non-linear simulation results are presented and compared to show the effectiveness of both the techniques in designing a TCSC-based controller, to enhance power system stability.
Abstract: This study employs auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach to cointegration for long run and errorcorrection modeling (ECM) for short run analysis to examine the relationship between revenue gap and economic growth for Pakistan using annual time series data over the period 1980 to 2008. The short and long run results indicate that revenue gap is statistical significant and negatively effect economic growth. The significant and negative coefficient of error correction term in ECM indicates that after a shock, the long rum equilibrium will again converge towards equilibrium about 10.406 percent within a year.
Abstract: The Indian subcontinent is facing a massive challenge with regards to the energy security in member countries, i.e. providing a reliable source of electricity to facilitate development across various sectors of the economy and thereby achieve the developmental targets it has set for itself. A highly precarious situation exists in the subcontinent which is observed in the series of system failures which most of the times leads to system collapses-blackouts. To mitigate the issues related with energy security as well as keep in check the increasing supply demand gap, a possible solution that stands in front of the subcontinent is the deployment of an interconnected electricity ‘Supergrid’ designed to carry huge quanta of power across the sub continent as well as provide the infra structure for RES integration. This paper assesses the need and conditions for a Supergrid deployment and consequently proposes a meshed topology based on VSC HVDC converters for the Supergrid modeling.
Abstract: Entrepreneurship has become an important and
extensively researched concept in business studies. Research on
foreign direct investment (FDI) has become widespread due to the
growth of FDI and its importance in globalization. Most
entrepreneurship studies examined the importance and influence of
entrepreneurial orientation in a micro-level context. On the other
hand, studies and research concerning FDI used statistical techniques
to analyze the effect, determinants, and motives of FDI on a
macroeconomic level, ignoring empirical studies on other noneconomic
determinants. In order to bridge the gap between the theory
and empirical evidence on FDI and the theory and research on
entrepreneurship, this study examines the impact of entrepreneurship
on inward foreign direct investment. The relationship between
entrepreneurship and foreign direct investment is investigated
through regression analysis of pooled time-series and cross-sectional
data. The results suggest that entrepreneurship has a significant effect
on FDI.
Abstract: In this paper, an approach for finding optimized
layouts for connecting PV units delivering maximum array output
power is suggested. The approach is based on considering the
different varying parameters of PV units that might be extracted from
a general two-diode model. These are mainly, solar irradiation,
reverse saturation currents, ideality factors, series and shunt
resistances in addition to operating temperature. The approach has
been tested on 19 possible 2×3 configurations and allowed to
determine the optimized configurations as well as examine the effects
of the different units- parameters on the maximum output power.
Thus, using this approach, standard arrays with n×m units can be
configured for maximum generated power and allows designing PV
based systems having reduced surfaces to fit specific required power,
as it is the case for solar cars and other mobile systems.
Abstract: This paper explores the features of political economy in the dynamics of representative politics in India. Politics is seen as enhancing economic benefits through acquiring and maintenance of power in the realm of democratic set up. The system of representation is riddled with competitive populism. Emerging leaders and parties are forced to accommodate their ideologies in coping with competitive politics. Electoral politics and voting behaviour reflect series of influences mooted by the politicians. Voters are accustomed to expect benefits outs of state exchequer. The electoral competitors show a changing phase of investment and return policy. Every elector has to spend and realize his costs in his tenure. In the case of defeated electors, even the cost recovery is not possible directly; there are indirect means to recover their costs. The series of case studies show the method of party funding, campaign financing, electoral expenditure, and cost recovery. Regulations could not restrict the level of spending. Several cases of disproportionate accumulation of wealth by the politicians reveal that money played a major part in electoral process. The political economy of representative politics hitherto ignores how a politician spends and recovers his cost and multiples his wealth. To be sure, the acquiring and maintenance of power is to enhance the wealth of the electors.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present a Dynamic
Time Warping technique which reduces significantly the data
processing time and memory size of multi-dimensional time series
sampled by the biometric smart pen device BiSP. The acquisition
device is a novel ballpoint pen equipped with a diversity of sensors
for monitoring the kinematics and dynamics of handwriting
movement. The DTW algorithm has been applied for time series
analysis of five different sensor channels providing pressure,
acceleration and tilt data of the pen generated during handwriting on
a paper pad. But the standard DTW has processing time and memory
space problems which limit its practical use for online handwriting
recognition. To face with this problem the DTW has been applied to
the sum of the five sensor signals after an adequate down-sampling
of the data. Preliminary results have shown that processing time and
memory size could significantly be reduced without deterioration of
performance in single character and word recognition. Further
excellent accuracy in recognition was achieved which is mainly due
to the reduced dynamic time warping RDTW technique and a novel
pen device BiSP.
Abstract: This paper deals with econometric analysis of real
retail trade turnover. It is a part of an extensive scientific research
about modern trends in Croatian national economy. At the end of the
period of transition economy, Croatia confronts with challenges and
problems of high consumption society. In such environment as
crucial economic variables: real retail trade turnover, average
monthly real wages and household loans are chosen for consequence
analysis. For the purpose of complete procedure of multiple
econometric analysis data base adjustment has been provided.
Namely, it has been necessary to deflate original national statistics
data of retail trade turnover using consumer price indices, as well as
provide process of seasonally adjustment of its contemporary
behavior. In model establishment it has been necessary to involve the
overcoming procedure for the autocorrelation and colinearity
problems. Moreover, for case of time-series shift a specific
appropriate econometric instrument has been applied. It would be
emphasize that the whole methodology procedure is based on the real
Croatian national economy time-series.
Abstract: Having done in this study, air-conditioning
automation for patisserie shopwindow was designed. In the cooling
sector it is quite important to cooling up the air temperature in the
shopwindow within short time interval. Otherwise the patisseries
inside of the shopwindow will be spoilt in a few days. Additionally
the humidity is other important parameter for the patisseries kept in
shopwindow. It must be raised up to desired level in a quite short
time. Traditional patisserie shopwindows only allow controlling
temperature manually. There is no humidity control and humidity is
supplied by fans that are directed to the water at the bottom of the
shopwindows. In this study, humidity and temperature sensors
(SHT11), PIC, AC motor controller, DC motor controller, ultrasonic
nebulizer and other electronic circuit members were used to simulate
air conditioning automation for patisserie shopwindow in proteus
software package. The simulation results showed that temperature
and humidity values are adjusted in desired time duration by openloop
control technique. Outer and inner temperature and humidity
values were used for control mechanism.
Abstract: The effect of chemical treatment in CdCl2 on the
compositional changes and defect structures of potentially useful ZnS
solar cell thin films prepared by vacuum deposition method was
studied using the complementary Rutherford backscattering (RBS)
and Thermoluminesence (TL) techniques. A series of electron and
hole traps are found in the various as deposited samples studied.
After treatment, perturbation on the intensity is noted; mobile defect
states and charge conversion and/or transfer between defect states are
found.
Abstract: Prediction of highly non linear behavior of suspended
sediment flow in rivers has prime importance in the field of water
resources engineering. In this study the predictive performance of
two Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) namely, the Radial Basis
Function (RBF) Network and the Multi Layer Feed Forward (MLFF)
Network have been compared. Time series data of daily suspended
sediment discharge and water discharge at Pari River was used for
training and testing the networks. A number of statistical parameters
i.e. root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE),
coefficient of efficiency (CE) and coefficient of determination (R2)
were used for performance evaluation of the models. Both the models
produced satisfactory results and showed a good agreement between
the predicted and observed data. The RBF network model provided
slightly better results than the MLFF network model in predicting
suspended sediment discharge.
Abstract: In the world of Peer-to-Peer (P2P) networking
different protocols have been developed to make the resource sharing
or information retrieval more efficient. The SemPeer protocol is a
new layer on Gnutella that transforms the connections of the nodes
based on semantic information to make information retrieval more
efficient. However, this transformation causes high clustering in the
network that decreases the number of nodes reached, therefore the
probability of finding a document is also decreased. In this paper we
describe a mathematical model for the Gnutella and SemPeer
protocols that captures clustering-related issues, followed by a
proposition to modify the SemPeer protocol to achieve moderate
clustering. This modification is a sort of link management for the
individual nodes that allows the SemPeer protocol to be more
efficient, because the probability of a successful query in the P2P
network is reasonably increased. For the validation of the models, we
evaluated a series of simulations that supported our results.
Abstract: Performance of a limited Round-Robin (RR) rule is
studied in order to clarify the characteristics of a realistic sharing
model of a processor. Under the limited RR rule, the processor
allocates to each request a fixed amount of time, called a quantum, in a
fixed order. The sum of the requests being allocated these quanta is
kept below a fixed value. Arriving requests that cannot be allocated
quanta because of such a restriction are queued or rejected. Practical
performance measures, such as the relationship between the mean
sojourn time, the mean number of requests, or the loss probability and
the quantum size are evaluated via simulation. In the evaluation, the
requested service time of an arriving request is converted into a
quantum number. One of these quanta is included in an RR cycle,
which means a series of quanta allocated to each request in a fixed
order. The service time of the arriving request can be evaluated using
the number of RR cycles required to complete the service, the number
of requests receiving service, and the quantum size. Then an increase
or decrease in the number of quanta that are necessary before service is
completed is reevaluated at the arrival or departure of other requests.
Tracking these events and calculations enables us to analyze the
performance of our limited RR rule. In particular, we obtain the most
suitable quantum size, which minimizes the mean sojourn time, for the
case in which the switching time for each quantum is considered.