Hourly Electricity Load Forecasting: An Empirical Application to the Italian Railways
Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.
[1] D.W. Bunn, and E.D. Farmer, (1985), Review of Short-Term Forecasting
Methods in the Electricity Power Industry, New York: Wiley, 1985, pp.
13-30.
[2] T. Haida, and S. Muto, "Regression based peak load forecasting using a
transformation technique", IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 9, p.p.
1788-1794, Issue: 4, 1994.
[3] P.D. Matthewman, and H.Nicholson, "Techniques for load prediction in
electricity supply industry", Proceedings of the Institution of Electrical
Engineers, vol. 115, p.p. 1451-1457, Issue: 10, 1968.
[4] M.A. Abu-E-Magd, and N.K. Sinha, "Short term load demand modeling
and forecasting", IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics,
vol. 12, p.p. 370-382, Issue: 3, 1982.
[5] G. Gross, and F.D. Galiana, "Short-term load forecasting", Proceedings
of the IEEE, vol. 75, 1558-1573, Issue: 12, 1987.
[6] G.A. Darbellay, and M.Slama, "Forecasting the short-term demand for
electricity - do neural networks stand a better chance?", International
Journal of Forecasting, 16, p.p. 71-84, 2000.
[7] H.S. Hippert, C.E. Pedreira, and R.C. Souza, "Neural networks for shortterm
load forecasting: a review and evaluation", IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, vol. 16, p.p. 44-55, Issue: 1, 2001.
[8] J.W. Taylor, L. de Menezes, and P.E. McSharry, "A comparison of
univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead,
International Journal of Forecasting, 22(1), p.p. 1-16, 2006.
[9] M. Adya, and F. Collopy, "How effective are neural networks at
forecasting and prediction? A review and evaluation", Journal of
Forecasting, 17, pp. 481-495, 1998.
[10] S. Makridakis, S.C. Wheelwright, and R.J. Hyndman, Forecasting:
Methods and Applications, Third Edition, New York: Wiley, 1998.
[11] G. Zhang, B.E. Patuwo, and M.Y. Hu, "Forecasting with artificial neural
networks: the state of the art, International Journal of Forecasting, 14,
p.p. 35-62, 1998.
[12] C.W. Gellings, Demand Forecasting for Electric Utilities, The Fairmont
Press, Lilburn, GA, 1996.
[13] E.A. Feinberg, J.T. Hajagos, and D. Genethliou, "Load pocket
modeling", Proceedings of the 2nd IASTED International Conference:
Power and Energy Systems, p.p. 50-54, Crete, 2002.
[14] E.A. Feinberg, J.T. Hajagos, and D. Genethliou, "Statistical load
modeling", Proceedings of the 7th IASTED International Conference:
Power and Energy Systems, p.p. 88-91, Palm Springs, CA, 2003.
[15] R.F. Engle, C. Mustafa, and J. Rice, (1992), "Modeling peak electricity
demand", Journal of Forecasting, vol. 11, p.p. 241-251, 1992.
[16] O. Hyde, and P.F. Hodnett, "Adaptable automated procedure for shortterm
electricity load forecasting", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
vo. 12, p.p. 84-94, Issue: 1, 1997.
[17] S. Ruzic, A. Vuckovic, and N. Nikolic, "Weather sensitive method for
short-term load forecasting in electric power utility of Serbia", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 18, p.p. 1581-1586, Issue: 18,
2003.
[18] T. Haida, S. Muto, Y. Takahashi, and Y. Ishi, "Peak load forecasting
using multiple-year data with trend data processing techniques",
Electrical Engineering in Japan, vol. 124, p.p. 7-16, Issue: 1, July 1998.
[19] W. Charytoniuk, M.S. Chen, and P. van Olinda, "Nonparametric
regression based short-term load forecasting", IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, vol. 13, p.p. 725-730, Issue: 3, 1998.
[20] J.Y. Fan,. and J.D. McDonald, "A real-time implementation of short-
Term load forecasting for distribution power system", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 9, p.p. 988-994, Issue: 2, 1994.
[21] M.Y. Cho, J.C. Hwang, and C.S. Chen, "Customer short-term load
forecasting by using ARIMA transfer function model", Proceedings of
International Conference on Energy Management and Power Delivery,
vol. 1, p.p. 317-322, 1995.
[22] H.T. Yang, C.-M. Huang, and C.-L. Huang, "Identification of ARIMA
model for short-term load forecasting: an evolutionary approach", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 11, p.p. p.p. 403-408, Issue: 1, Feb.
1996.
[23] M. Peng, N.F. Hubele, and G.G. Karadi, "Advancement in the
application of neural networks for short-term load forecasting", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 7, p.p. 250-257, Issue: 1, 1992.
[24] A.G., Bakirtzis, V. Petridis, M.C. Kiartzis, and A.H. Maissis, "A neural
network short-term load forecasting model for the Greek power system",
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 11, p.p. 858-863, Issue: 2,
1996.
[25] A.D. Papalexopoulos, S. Hao, and T.-M. Peng, "An implementation of a
neural network based load forecasting model for the EMS", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 9, p.p. 1956-1962, Issue: 4,1994.
[26] A. Khotanzad, R.A. Rohani, and D.J. Maratukulam, "ANNSTLF -
artificial neural network short-term load forecaster - generation three",
IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, vol. 13, p.p. 1413-1422, Issue:
4, 1998.
[27] K.L. Ho, Y.Y. Hsu, F.F. Chen, T.E. Lee, C.C. Liang, T.S. Lai, and K.K.
Chen, "Short-term load forecasting of Taiwan Power System using a
knowledge based expert system", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
vol. 5, p.p. 1214-1221, 1990.
[28] S. Rahman, and O. Hazim, "Load forecasting for multiple sites:
development of an expert system-based technique", Electric Power
System Research, vol. 39, p.p. 161-169, Issue:3, December 1996.
[29] S.J. Kiartzis, A.G. Bakirtzis, J.B. Theocharis, and G. Tsagas, "A fuzzy
expert system for peak load forecasting: application to the Greek Power
System", Proceedings of the 10th Mediterraean Electrotechnical
Conference, vol. 3, p.p. 1097-1100, 2000.
[30] V. Miranda, and C. Monteiro, "Fuzzy interference in spatial load
forecasting", Proceedings of IEEE Power Engineering Winter Meeting,
vol. 2, p.p. 1063-1068, 2000.
[31] S.E. Skarman, and M. Georgiopoulos, "Short-term electrical load
forecasting using a fuzzy ARTMAP neural network", Proceedings of the
SPIE, p.p. 181-191, 1998.
[32] V.N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learnig Theory, New York:
Springer Verlag, 1995.
[33] M. Mohandes, "Support vector machines for short-term electrical load
forecasting", International Journal of Energy Research, vol. 25, p.p.
335-345, 2002.
[34] B.J. Chen, M.V. Chang, M.V. and C.J. Lin, "Load forecasting using
support vector machines: a study on EUNITE Competition 2001", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 19, p.p. 1821-1830, Issue: 4, 2004.
[35] Y. Li, and T. Fang, (2003), "Wawelet and support vector machines for
short-term electrical load forecasting", Proceedings of International
Conference on Wawelet Analysis and its Applications, vol. 1, p.p. 399-
404, 2003.
[36] E.A. Feinberg, and D. Genethliou, "Load forecasting", in Applied
Mathematics for Restructured Electric Power Systems: Optimization,
Control and Computational Intelligence, J.H. Chow, F.F: Wu and J.J.
Momoh (eds), Springer, 2005.
[37] S. Varadan, and E.B. Makram, "Harmonic load identification and
determination of load composition using a least squares method",
Electric Power System Research, vol. 37, p.p. 203-208, Issue: 3, 1996.
[38] O. Hyde, and P.F. Hodnett, "Modeling the effect of weather in shortterm
electricity load forecasting", Mathematical Engineering in
Industry, vol. 6, p.p. 155-169, 1997.
[39] R.P. Broadwater, A. Sargent, A. Yarali, H.E. Shaalan, and J. Nazarko,
"Estimating substation peaks from research data", IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, vol. 12, p.p. 451-456, Issue: 1, 1997.
[40] A.Z. Al-Garni, Z. Ahmed, Y.N. Al-Nassar, S.M. Zubair, and A. Al-
Shehri, "Model for electric energy consumption in eastern Saudi
Arabia", Energy Sources, vol. 19, p.p. 325-334, 1997.
[41] H.K. Alfares, and M. Nazeeruddin, "Regression-based methodology for
daily peak load forecasting", Proceedings of the 2nd International
Conference on Operation and Quantitative Management, Ahmedabad,
India, pp.468-471, 3-6 January, 1999.
[42] M. Smith, "Modeling and short-term forecasting of New South Wales
electricity system load", Journal of Business & Economic Statistic, vol.
18, p.p. 465-478. 2000.
[43] A. Misiorek, and R. Weron, "Application of external variables to
increase accuracy of system load forecast", Proceedings of APE05
Conference, (in Polish), Jurata, 2005.
[44] J.W. Taylor, and R. Buizza, (2003), "Using weather ensemble
predictions in electricity demand forecasting", International Journal of
Forecasting, vol. p.p. 19, 57-70, 2003.
[45] I. Moghram, and S. Rahman, "Analysis and evaluation of five short-term
load forecasting techniques", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.
4, p.p. 1484-1491, Issue: 4, October 1989.
[46] E.H. Barakat, M.A. Qayyum, M.N. Hamed, and S.A. Al-Rashed,
"Short-term peak demand forecasting in fast developing utility with
inherent dynamic load characteristic", IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, vol. 5, p.p. 813-824, Issue: 3, 1990.
[47] A.A. El-Keib, X. Ma, and H. Ma, "Advancement of statistical based
modeling for short-term load forecasting", Electric Power System
Research, vol. 35, p.p. 51-58, Issue: 1, October 1995.
[48] D.G. Infield, and D.C. Hill, "Optimal smoothing for trend removal in
short term electricity demand forecasting", IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, vol. 13, p.p. 1115-1120, Issue: 3, 1998.
[49] K. Liu, S. Subbarayan, R.R. Shoults, M.T. Manry C. Kwan, F.L. Lewis,
and J. Naccarino, "Comparison of very short-term load forecasting",
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 11, p.p. 877-882, Issue: 2,
1996.
[50] G.A. Mbamalu, and M.E. El-Hawary, "Load forecasting via suboptimal
autoregressive models and iteratively reweighted least squares", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 8, p.p. 343-348, Issue: 1, 1993.
[51] A.A. El-Keib, X. Ma, and H. Ma, "Advancement of statistical based
modeling for short-term load forecasting", Electric Power System
Research, vol. 35, p.p. 51-58, Issue:1 , October 1995.
[52] S.R. Huang, "Short-term load forecasting using threshold autoregressive
models", IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission, and Distribution,
vol. 144, p.p. 477-481, Issue: 5, 1997.
[53] L.J. Soares, and M.C. Medeiros, "Modeling and forecasting short-term
electricity load: a two-step methodology", Discussion Paper n┬░. 495,
Department of Economics, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de
Janeiro, 2005.
[54] E.H. Barakat, J.M. Al-Qassim, and S.A. Al-Rashed, "New model for
peak demand forecasting applied to highly complex load characteristics
of a fast developing area", IEE Proceedings C in Generation,
Transmission and Distribution, vol. 139, p.p. 136-149, Issue: 2, Mar.
1992.
[55] J.F. Chen, W.M.Wang, and C.M. Huang, C.M., "Analysis of an adaptive
time-series autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) model for shortterm
load forecasting", Electric Power Systems Research, vol. 34, p.p.
187-196, Issue: 3, September 1995.
[56] L.D. Paarmann, and M.D. Najar-s, "Adaptive on-line forecasting via
time series modeling", Electric Power System Research, vol. 32, p.p.
219-225, Issue: 3, March 1995.
[57] J. Nowicka-Zagrajek, and R. Weron, "Modeling electricity loads in
California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise", Signal Processing,
vol. 82, p.p. 1903-1915, Issue: 12, December 2002.
[58] S.J. Huang, and K.R. Shih, "Short-term load forecasting via ARMA
model identification including non-Gaussian process consideration",
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 18, p.p. 673-679, Issue: 2,
2003.
[59] Z.S. Elrazaz, and , A.A. Mazi, "Unified weekly peak load forecasting for
fast growing power system", IEE Proceedings C - Generation,
Transmission and Distribution, vol. 136, p.p. 29-41, Issue: 1, Jan. 1989.
[60] N. Amjadi, "Short-term hourly load forecasting using time-series
modeling with peak load estimation capability", IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, vol. 16, p.p. 798-805, Issue: 4, 2001.
[61] G. Juberias, R. Yunta, J. Garcia Morino, and C. Mendivil, "A new
ARIMA model for hourly load forecasting", IEEE Transmission and
Distribution Conference Proceedings, vol. 1, p.p. 314-319, 1999.
[62] L. Ljung, System Identification - Theory for the User, 2nd edn, Prentice
Hall, Upper Saddle River, 1999.
[63] A. Khotanzad, R. Afkhami-Rohani, Tsun-Liang Lu; A. Abaye, M.
Davis, D.J. Maratukulam, "ANNSTLF-a neural-network-based electric
load forecasting system ", IEEE Transaction on Neural Network, vol. 8,
p.p. 835-846, Issue: 4, 1997.
[64] H.S. Hippert, D.W. Bunnand and R.C. Souza, "Large neural networks
for electricity load forecasting: are they overfitted?, International
Journal of Forecasting, vol. 21, 3, 425-434, Issue: 3, 2005.
[65] K.L. Ho, Y.Y. Hsu, F.F. Chen, T.E. Lee, C.C. Liang, T.S. Lai, and K.K.
Chen, "Short-term load forecasting of Taiwan Power System using a
knowledge based expert system", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
vol. 5, p.p. 1214-1221, Issue: 4, 1990.
[66] S. Rahman, and O. Hazim, "Load forecasting for multiple sites:
development of an expert system-based technique", Electric Power
System Reseach, vol. 39, p.p. 161-169, Issue: 3, December 1996.
[67] K.-H. Kim, J.-K. Park, K.-J. Hwang, and S.-H. Kim, "Implementation of
hybrid short-term load forecasting system using artificial neural
networks and fuzzy expert systems", IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, vol. 10, p.p. 1534-1539, Issue: 3, 1995.
[68] D. Srinivasan, S.S. Tan. C.S. Chang., and E.K. Chan, "Parallel neural
network-fuzzy expert system for short-term load forecasting: system
implementation and performance evaluation", IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, vol. 14, p.p. 1100-1106, Issue: 3, 1999.
[69] S.H. Ling, F.H.F. Leung, H.K. Lam, and P.K.S. Tam, "Short-term
electric load forecasting based on a neural fuzzy network", IEEE
Transactions on Industrial Electronics, vol. 50, p.p. 1305-1316, Issue: 6,
2003.
[70] T. Senjyu, P. Mandal, K. Uezato, and T. Funabashi, "Next day load
curve forecasting using hybrid correction methods", IEEE Transactions
on Power Systems, vol. 20, p.p. 102-109, Issue: 1, 2005.
[71] K.-B. Song, S.-K. Ha, J.-W. Park, D.-J. Kweon, and K.-H. Kim,
"Hybrid load forecasting method with analysis of temperature
sensitivities", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 21, p.p. 869-
876, Issue: 2, 2006.
[72] V.N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, New York:
Springer Verlag, 1995.
[73] Y. Li, and T. Fang, "Application of fuzzy support vector machines in
short-term load forecasting", Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2639,
p.p. 363-367, 2003.
[1] D.W. Bunn, and E.D. Farmer, (1985), Review of Short-Term Forecasting
Methods in the Electricity Power Industry, New York: Wiley, 1985, pp.
13-30.
[2] T. Haida, and S. Muto, "Regression based peak load forecasting using a
transformation technique", IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 9, p.p.
1788-1794, Issue: 4, 1994.
[3] P.D. Matthewman, and H.Nicholson, "Techniques for load prediction in
electricity supply industry", Proceedings of the Institution of Electrical
Engineers, vol. 115, p.p. 1451-1457, Issue: 10, 1968.
[4] M.A. Abu-E-Magd, and N.K. Sinha, "Short term load demand modeling
and forecasting", IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics,
vol. 12, p.p. 370-382, Issue: 3, 1982.
[5] G. Gross, and F.D. Galiana, "Short-term load forecasting", Proceedings
of the IEEE, vol. 75, 1558-1573, Issue: 12, 1987.
[6] G.A. Darbellay, and M.Slama, "Forecasting the short-term demand for
electricity - do neural networks stand a better chance?", International
Journal of Forecasting, 16, p.p. 71-84, 2000.
[7] H.S. Hippert, C.E. Pedreira, and R.C. Souza, "Neural networks for shortterm
load forecasting: a review and evaluation", IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, vol. 16, p.p. 44-55, Issue: 1, 2001.
[8] J.W. Taylor, L. de Menezes, and P.E. McSharry, "A comparison of
univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead,
International Journal of Forecasting, 22(1), p.p. 1-16, 2006.
[9] M. Adya, and F. Collopy, "How effective are neural networks at
forecasting and prediction? A review and evaluation", Journal of
Forecasting, 17, pp. 481-495, 1998.
[10] S. Makridakis, S.C. Wheelwright, and R.J. Hyndman, Forecasting:
Methods and Applications, Third Edition, New York: Wiley, 1998.
[11] G. Zhang, B.E. Patuwo, and M.Y. Hu, "Forecasting with artificial neural
networks: the state of the art, International Journal of Forecasting, 14,
p.p. 35-62, 1998.
[12] C.W. Gellings, Demand Forecasting for Electric Utilities, The Fairmont
Press, Lilburn, GA, 1996.
[13] E.A. Feinberg, J.T. Hajagos, and D. Genethliou, "Load pocket
modeling", Proceedings of the 2nd IASTED International Conference:
Power and Energy Systems, p.p. 50-54, Crete, 2002.
[14] E.A. Feinberg, J.T. Hajagos, and D. Genethliou, "Statistical load
modeling", Proceedings of the 7th IASTED International Conference:
Power and Energy Systems, p.p. 88-91, Palm Springs, CA, 2003.
[15] R.F. Engle, C. Mustafa, and J. Rice, (1992), "Modeling peak electricity
demand", Journal of Forecasting, vol. 11, p.p. 241-251, 1992.
[16] O. Hyde, and P.F. Hodnett, "Adaptable automated procedure for shortterm
electricity load forecasting", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
vo. 12, p.p. 84-94, Issue: 1, 1997.
[17] S. Ruzic, A. Vuckovic, and N. Nikolic, "Weather sensitive method for
short-term load forecasting in electric power utility of Serbia", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 18, p.p. 1581-1586, Issue: 18,
2003.
[18] T. Haida, S. Muto, Y. Takahashi, and Y. Ishi, "Peak load forecasting
using multiple-year data with trend data processing techniques",
Electrical Engineering in Japan, vol. 124, p.p. 7-16, Issue: 1, July 1998.
[19] W. Charytoniuk, M.S. Chen, and P. van Olinda, "Nonparametric
regression based short-term load forecasting", IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, vol. 13, p.p. 725-730, Issue: 3, 1998.
[20] J.Y. Fan,. and J.D. McDonald, "A real-time implementation of short-
Term load forecasting for distribution power system", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 9, p.p. 988-994, Issue: 2, 1994.
[21] M.Y. Cho, J.C. Hwang, and C.S. Chen, "Customer short-term load
forecasting by using ARIMA transfer function model", Proceedings of
International Conference on Energy Management and Power Delivery,
vol. 1, p.p. 317-322, 1995.
[22] H.T. Yang, C.-M. Huang, and C.-L. Huang, "Identification of ARIMA
model for short-term load forecasting: an evolutionary approach", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 11, p.p. p.p. 403-408, Issue: 1, Feb.
1996.
[23] M. Peng, N.F. Hubele, and G.G. Karadi, "Advancement in the
application of neural networks for short-term load forecasting", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 7, p.p. 250-257, Issue: 1, 1992.
[24] A.G., Bakirtzis, V. Petridis, M.C. Kiartzis, and A.H. Maissis, "A neural
network short-term load forecasting model for the Greek power system",
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 11, p.p. 858-863, Issue: 2,
1996.
[25] A.D. Papalexopoulos, S. Hao, and T.-M. Peng, "An implementation of a
neural network based load forecasting model for the EMS", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 9, p.p. 1956-1962, Issue: 4,1994.
[26] A. Khotanzad, R.A. Rohani, and D.J. Maratukulam, "ANNSTLF -
artificial neural network short-term load forecaster - generation three",
IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, vol. 13, p.p. 1413-1422, Issue:
4, 1998.
[27] K.L. Ho, Y.Y. Hsu, F.F. Chen, T.E. Lee, C.C. Liang, T.S. Lai, and K.K.
Chen, "Short-term load forecasting of Taiwan Power System using a
knowledge based expert system", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
vol. 5, p.p. 1214-1221, 1990.
[28] S. Rahman, and O. Hazim, "Load forecasting for multiple sites:
development of an expert system-based technique", Electric Power
System Research, vol. 39, p.p. 161-169, Issue:3, December 1996.
[29] S.J. Kiartzis, A.G. Bakirtzis, J.B. Theocharis, and G. Tsagas, "A fuzzy
expert system for peak load forecasting: application to the Greek Power
System", Proceedings of the 10th Mediterraean Electrotechnical
Conference, vol. 3, p.p. 1097-1100, 2000.
[30] V. Miranda, and C. Monteiro, "Fuzzy interference in spatial load
forecasting", Proceedings of IEEE Power Engineering Winter Meeting,
vol. 2, p.p. 1063-1068, 2000.
[31] S.E. Skarman, and M. Georgiopoulos, "Short-term electrical load
forecasting using a fuzzy ARTMAP neural network", Proceedings of the
SPIE, p.p. 181-191, 1998.
[32] V.N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learnig Theory, New York:
Springer Verlag, 1995.
[33] M. Mohandes, "Support vector machines for short-term electrical load
forecasting", International Journal of Energy Research, vol. 25, p.p.
335-345, 2002.
[34] B.J. Chen, M.V. Chang, M.V. and C.J. Lin, "Load forecasting using
support vector machines: a study on EUNITE Competition 2001", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 19, p.p. 1821-1830, Issue: 4, 2004.
[35] Y. Li, and T. Fang, (2003), "Wawelet and support vector machines for
short-term electrical load forecasting", Proceedings of International
Conference on Wawelet Analysis and its Applications, vol. 1, p.p. 399-
404, 2003.
[36] E.A. Feinberg, and D. Genethliou, "Load forecasting", in Applied
Mathematics for Restructured Electric Power Systems: Optimization,
Control and Computational Intelligence, J.H. Chow, F.F: Wu and J.J.
Momoh (eds), Springer, 2005.
[37] S. Varadan, and E.B. Makram, "Harmonic load identification and
determination of load composition using a least squares method",
Electric Power System Research, vol. 37, p.p. 203-208, Issue: 3, 1996.
[38] O. Hyde, and P.F. Hodnett, "Modeling the effect of weather in shortterm
electricity load forecasting", Mathematical Engineering in
Industry, vol. 6, p.p. 155-169, 1997.
[39] R.P. Broadwater, A. Sargent, A. Yarali, H.E. Shaalan, and J. Nazarko,
"Estimating substation peaks from research data", IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, vol. 12, p.p. 451-456, Issue: 1, 1997.
[40] A.Z. Al-Garni, Z. Ahmed, Y.N. Al-Nassar, S.M. Zubair, and A. Al-
Shehri, "Model for electric energy consumption in eastern Saudi
Arabia", Energy Sources, vol. 19, p.p. 325-334, 1997.
[41] H.K. Alfares, and M. Nazeeruddin, "Regression-based methodology for
daily peak load forecasting", Proceedings of the 2nd International
Conference on Operation and Quantitative Management, Ahmedabad,
India, pp.468-471, 3-6 January, 1999.
[42] M. Smith, "Modeling and short-term forecasting of New South Wales
electricity system load", Journal of Business & Economic Statistic, vol.
18, p.p. 465-478. 2000.
[43] A. Misiorek, and R. Weron, "Application of external variables to
increase accuracy of system load forecast", Proceedings of APE05
Conference, (in Polish), Jurata, 2005.
[44] J.W. Taylor, and R. Buizza, (2003), "Using weather ensemble
predictions in electricity demand forecasting", International Journal of
Forecasting, vol. p.p. 19, 57-70, 2003.
[45] I. Moghram, and S. Rahman, "Analysis and evaluation of five short-term
load forecasting techniques", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.
4, p.p. 1484-1491, Issue: 4, October 1989.
[46] E.H. Barakat, M.A. Qayyum, M.N. Hamed, and S.A. Al-Rashed,
"Short-term peak demand forecasting in fast developing utility with
inherent dynamic load characteristic", IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, vol. 5, p.p. 813-824, Issue: 3, 1990.
[47] A.A. El-Keib, X. Ma, and H. Ma, "Advancement of statistical based
modeling for short-term load forecasting", Electric Power System
Research, vol. 35, p.p. 51-58, Issue: 1, October 1995.
[48] D.G. Infield, and D.C. Hill, "Optimal smoothing for trend removal in
short term electricity demand forecasting", IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, vol. 13, p.p. 1115-1120, Issue: 3, 1998.
[49] K. Liu, S. Subbarayan, R.R. Shoults, M.T. Manry C. Kwan, F.L. Lewis,
and J. Naccarino, "Comparison of very short-term load forecasting",
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 11, p.p. 877-882, Issue: 2,
1996.
[50] G.A. Mbamalu, and M.E. El-Hawary, "Load forecasting via suboptimal
autoregressive models and iteratively reweighted least squares", IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 8, p.p. 343-348, Issue: 1, 1993.
[51] A.A. El-Keib, X. Ma, and H. Ma, "Advancement of statistical based
modeling for short-term load forecasting", Electric Power System
Research, vol. 35, p.p. 51-58, Issue:1 , October 1995.
[52] S.R. Huang, "Short-term load forecasting using threshold autoregressive
models", IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission, and Distribution,
vol. 144, p.p. 477-481, Issue: 5, 1997.
[53] L.J. Soares, and M.C. Medeiros, "Modeling and forecasting short-term
electricity load: a two-step methodology", Discussion Paper n┬░. 495,
Department of Economics, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de
Janeiro, 2005.
[54] E.H. Barakat, J.M. Al-Qassim, and S.A. Al-Rashed, "New model for
peak demand forecasting applied to highly complex load characteristics
of a fast developing area", IEE Proceedings C in Generation,
Transmission and Distribution, vol. 139, p.p. 136-149, Issue: 2, Mar.
1992.
[55] J.F. Chen, W.M.Wang, and C.M. Huang, C.M., "Analysis of an adaptive
time-series autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) model for shortterm
load forecasting", Electric Power Systems Research, vol. 34, p.p.
187-196, Issue: 3, September 1995.
[56] L.D. Paarmann, and M.D. Najar-s, "Adaptive on-line forecasting via
time series modeling", Electric Power System Research, vol. 32, p.p.
219-225, Issue: 3, March 1995.
[57] J. Nowicka-Zagrajek, and R. Weron, "Modeling electricity loads in
California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise", Signal Processing,
vol. 82, p.p. 1903-1915, Issue: 12, December 2002.
[58] S.J. Huang, and K.R. Shih, "Short-term load forecasting via ARMA
model identification including non-Gaussian process consideration",
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 18, p.p. 673-679, Issue: 2,
2003.
[59] Z.S. Elrazaz, and , A.A. Mazi, "Unified weekly peak load forecasting for
fast growing power system", IEE Proceedings C - Generation,
Transmission and Distribution, vol. 136, p.p. 29-41, Issue: 1, Jan. 1989.
[60] N. Amjadi, "Short-term hourly load forecasting using time-series
modeling with peak load estimation capability", IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, vol. 16, p.p. 798-805, Issue: 4, 2001.
[61] G. Juberias, R. Yunta, J. Garcia Morino, and C. Mendivil, "A new
ARIMA model for hourly load forecasting", IEEE Transmission and
Distribution Conference Proceedings, vol. 1, p.p. 314-319, 1999.
[62] L. Ljung, System Identification - Theory for the User, 2nd edn, Prentice
Hall, Upper Saddle River, 1999.
[63] A. Khotanzad, R. Afkhami-Rohani, Tsun-Liang Lu; A. Abaye, M.
Davis, D.J. Maratukulam, "ANNSTLF-a neural-network-based electric
load forecasting system ", IEEE Transaction on Neural Network, vol. 8,
p.p. 835-846, Issue: 4, 1997.
[64] H.S. Hippert, D.W. Bunnand and R.C. Souza, "Large neural networks
for electricity load forecasting: are they overfitted?, International
Journal of Forecasting, vol. 21, 3, 425-434, Issue: 3, 2005.
[65] K.L. Ho, Y.Y. Hsu, F.F. Chen, T.E. Lee, C.C. Liang, T.S. Lai, and K.K.
Chen, "Short-term load forecasting of Taiwan Power System using a
knowledge based expert system", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,
vol. 5, p.p. 1214-1221, Issue: 4, 1990.
[66] S. Rahman, and O. Hazim, "Load forecasting for multiple sites:
development of an expert system-based technique", Electric Power
System Reseach, vol. 39, p.p. 161-169, Issue: 3, December 1996.
[67] K.-H. Kim, J.-K. Park, K.-J. Hwang, and S.-H. Kim, "Implementation of
hybrid short-term load forecasting system using artificial neural
networks and fuzzy expert systems", IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, vol. 10, p.p. 1534-1539, Issue: 3, 1995.
[68] D. Srinivasan, S.S. Tan. C.S. Chang., and E.K. Chan, "Parallel neural
network-fuzzy expert system for short-term load forecasting: system
implementation and performance evaluation", IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, vol. 14, p.p. 1100-1106, Issue: 3, 1999.
[69] S.H. Ling, F.H.F. Leung, H.K. Lam, and P.K.S. Tam, "Short-term
electric load forecasting based on a neural fuzzy network", IEEE
Transactions on Industrial Electronics, vol. 50, p.p. 1305-1316, Issue: 6,
2003.
[70] T. Senjyu, P. Mandal, K. Uezato, and T. Funabashi, "Next day load
curve forecasting using hybrid correction methods", IEEE Transactions
on Power Systems, vol. 20, p.p. 102-109, Issue: 1, 2005.
[71] K.-B. Song, S.-K. Ha, J.-W. Park, D.-J. Kweon, and K.-H. Kim,
"Hybrid load forecasting method with analysis of temperature
sensitivities", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 21, p.p. 869-
876, Issue: 2, 2006.
[72] V.N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, New York:
Springer Verlag, 1995.
[73] Y. Li, and T. Fang, "Application of fuzzy support vector machines in
short-term load forecasting", Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2639,
p.p. 363-367, 2003.
@article{"International Journal of Electrical, Electronic and Communication Sciences:63227", author = "M. Centra", title = "Hourly Electricity Load Forecasting: An Empirical Application to the Italian Railways", abstract = "Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.
", keywords = "ARIMA models, Exponential smoothing,Electricity, Load forecasting, Rail transportation.", volume = "5", number = "8", pages = "1133-8", }
