Abstract: In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.
Abstract: Turbulence of the incoming wind field is of paramount
importance to the dynamic response of civil engineering structures. Hence reliable stochastic models of the turbulence should be available from which time series can be generated for dynamic response and
structural safety analysis. In the paper an empirical cross spectral
density function for the along-wind turbulence component over the wind field area is taken as the starting point. The spectrum is spatially
discretized in terms of a Hermitian cross-spectral density matrix for the turbulence state vector which turns out not to be positive
definite. Since the succeeding state space and ARMA modelling of
the turbulence rely on the positive definiteness of the cross-spectral
density matrix, the problem with the non-positive definiteness of such
matrices is at first addressed and suitable treatments regarding it are proposed. From the adjusted positive definite cross-spectral density
matrix a frequency response matrix is constructed which determines the turbulence vector as a linear filtration of Gaussian white noise.
Finally, an accurate state space modelling method is proposed which allows selection of an appropriate model order, and estimation of a state space model for the vector turbulence process incorporating its phase spectrum in one stage, and its results are compared with a conventional ARMA modelling method.
Abstract: In this study integral form and new recursive formulas
for Favard constants and some connected with them numeric and
Fourier series are obtained. The method is based on preliminary
integration of Fourier series which allows for establishing finite
recursive representations for the summation. It is shown that the
derived recursive representations are numerically more effective than
known representations of the considered objects.
Abstract: Recently, most digital systems are designed as GALS (Globally Asynchronous Locally Synchronous) systems. Several architectures have been proposed as bus architectures for a GALS system : shared bus, segmented bus, ring bus, and so on. In this study, we propose a ring segmented bus architecture which is a combination of segmented bus and ring bus architecture with the aim of throughput enhancement. In a segmented bus architecture, segments are connected in series. By connecting the segments at the end of the bus and constructing the ring bus, it becomes possible to allocate a channel of the bus bidirectionally. The bus channel is allocated to the shortest path between segments. We consider a metastable operation caused by asynchronous communication between segments and a burst transfer between segments. According to the result of simulation, it is shown that the GALS system designed by the proposed method has the desired operations.
Abstract: Inferring the network structure from time series data
is a hard problem, especially if the time series is short and noisy.
DNA microarray is a technology allowing to monitor the mRNA
concentration of thousands of genes simultaneously that produces
data of these characteristics. In this study we try to investigate the
influence of the experimental design on the quality of the result.
More precisely, we investigate the influence of two different types of
random single gene perturbations on the inference of genetic networks
from time series data. To obtain an objective quality measure for
this influence we simulate gene expression values with a biologically
plausible model of a known network structure. Within this framework
we study the influence of single gene knock-outs in opposite to
linearly controlled expression for single genes on the quality of the
infered network structure.
Abstract: This work concerns on experimentally investigation
of surfactant flooding in fractured porous media. In this study a series
of water and surfactant injection processes were performed on
micromodels initially saturated with a heavy crude oil. Eight
fractured glass micromodels were used to illustrate effects of
surfactant types and concentrations on oil recovery efficiency in
presence of fractures with different properties i.e. fracture
orientation, length and number of fractures. Two different
surfactants with different concentrations were tested. The results
showed that surfactant flooding would be more efficient by using
SDS surfactant aqueous solution and also by locating injection well
in a proper position respect to fracture properties. This study
demonstrates different physical and chemical conditions that affect
the efficiency of this method of enhanced oil recovery.
Abstract: Recent fifteen years witnessed fast improvements in the field of humanoid robotics. The human-like robot structure is
more suitable to human environment with its supreme obstacle avoidance properties when compared with wheeled service robots.
However, the walking control for bipedal robots is a challenging task
due to their complex dynamics. Stable reference generation plays a very important role in control.
Linear Inverted Pendulum Model (LIPM) and the Zero Moment Point (ZMP) criterion are applied in a number of studies for stable
walking reference generation of biped walking robots. This paper follows this main approach too. We propose a natural and continuous ZMP reference trajectory for a stable and human-like walk. The ZMP reference trajectories move forward under the sole of the support foot when the robot body is supported by a single leg. Robot center of mass trajectory is obtained
from predefined ZMP reference trajectories by a Fourier series
approximation method. The Gibbs phenomenon problem common with Fourier approximations of discontinuous functions is avoided by employing continuous ZMP references. Also, these ZMP reference
trajectories possess pre-assigned single and double support phases,
which are very useful in experimental tuning work.
The ZMP based reference generation strategy is tested via threedimensional
full-dynamics simulations of a 12-degrees-of-freedom
biped robot model. Simulation results indicate that the proposed reference trajectory generation technique is successful.
Abstract: The power system network is becoming more
complex nowadays and it is very difficult to maintain the stability
of the system. Today-s enhancement of technology makes it
possible to include new energy storage devices in the electric
power system. In addition, with the aid of power electronic
devices, it is possible to independently exchange active and
reactive power flow with the utility grid. The main purpose of this
paper proposes a Proportional – Integral (PI) control based 48 –
pulse Inverter based Static Synchronous Series Compensator
(SSSC) with and without Superconducting Magnetic Energy
Storage (SMES) used for enhancing the transient stability and
regulating power flow in automatic mode. Using a test power
system through the dynamic simulation in Matlab/Simulink
platform validates the performance of the proposed SSSC with and
without SMES system.
Abstract: The novelty proposed in this study is twofold and consists in the developing of a new color similarity metric based on the human visual system and a new color indexing based on a textual approach. The new color similarity metric proposed is based on the color perception of the human visual system. Consequently the results returned by the indexing system can fulfill as much as possibile the user expectations. We developed a web application to collect the users judgments about the similarities between colors, whose results are used to estimate the metric proposed in this study. In order to index the image's colors, we used a text indexing engine to facilitate the integration of visual features in a database of text documents. The textual signature is build by weighting the image's colors in according to their occurrence in the image. The use of a textual indexing engine, provide us a simple, fast and robust solution to index images. A typical usage of the system proposed in this study, is the development of applications whose data type is both visual and textual. In order to evaluate the proposed method we chose a price comparison engine as a case of study, collecting a series of commercial offers containing the textual description and the image representing a specific commercial offer.
Abstract: In this paper, some experiments of liquid dispersion flow driven by explosion in vertical plane were carried out using a liquid explosive dispersion device with film cylindrical constraints. The separated time series describing the breakup shape and dispersion process of liquid were recorded with high speed CMOS camera. The experimental results were analyzed and some essential characteristics of liquid dispersing flow are presented.
Abstract: The prediction of meteorological parameters at a
meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder
linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the
grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data
points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we
consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and
the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term
prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy
predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a
comparison between local and global prediction schemes.
Abstract: Liners are made to protect the groundwater table from
the infiltration of leachate which normally carries different kinds of
toxic materials from landfills. Although these liners are engineered to
last for long period of time; unfortunately these liners fail; therefore,
toxic materials pass to groundwater. This paper focuses on the
changes of the hydraulic conductivity of a sand-bentonite liner due to
the infiltration of biofuel and ethanol fuel. Series of laboratory tests
were conducted in 20-cm-high PVC columns. Several compositions
of sand-bentonite liners were tested: 95% sand: 5% bentonite; 90%
sand: 10% bentonite; and 100% sand (passed mesh #40). The
columns were subjected to extreme pressures of 40 kPa, and 100 kPa
to evaluate the transport of alternative fuels (biofuel and ethanol
fuel). For comparative studies, similar tests were carried out using
water. Results showed that hydraulic conductivity increased due to
the infiltration of alternative fuels through the liners. Accordingly,
the increase in the hydraulic conductivity showed significant
dependency on the type of liner mixture and the characteristics of the
liquid. The hydraulic conductivity of a liner (subjected to biofuel
infiltration) consisting of 5% bentonite: 95% sand under pressure of
40 kPa and 100 kPa had increased by one fold. In addition, the
hydraulic conductivity of a liner consisting of 10% bentonite: 90%
sand under pressure of 40 kPa and 100 kPa and infiltrated by biofuel
had increased by three folds. On the other hand, the results obtained
by water infiltration under 40 kPa showed lower hydraulic
conductivities of 1.50×10-5 and 1.37×10-9 cm/s for 5% bentonite:
95% sand, and 10% bentonite: 90% sand, respectively. Similarly,
under 100 kPa, the hydraulic conductivities were 2.30×10-5 and
1.90×10-9 cm/s for 5% bentonite: 95% sand, and 10% bentonite: 90%
sand, respectively.
Abstract: A homologous series of aromatic esters, 4-nalkanoyloxybenzylidene-
4--bromoanilines, nABBA,
consisting of two 1,4-disubstituted phenyl cores and a Schiff
base central linkage was synthesized. All the members can be
differed by the number of carbon atoms at terminal
alkanoyloxy chain (CnH2n-1COO-, n = 2, 6, 18). The molecular
structure of nABBA was confirmed with infrared
spectroscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)
spectroscopy and electron-ionization mass (EI-MS)
spectrometry. Mesomorphic properties were studied using
differential scanning calorimetry and polarizing optical
microscopy.
Abstract: Structured catalysts formed from the growth of
zeolites on substrates is an area of increasing interest due to the
increased efficiency of the catalytic process, and the ability to
provide superior heat transfer and thermal conductivity for both
exothermic and endothermic processes.
However, the generation of structured catalysts represents a
significant challenge when balancing the relationship variables
between materials properties and catalytic performance, with the
Na2O, H2O and Al2O3 gel composition paying a significant role in
this dynamic, thereby affecting the both the type and range of
application.
The structured catalyst films generated as part of this
investigation have been characterised using a range of techniques,
including X-ray diffraction (XRD), Electron microscopy (SEM),
Energy Dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX) and Thermogravimetric
Analysis (TGA), with the transition from oxide-on-alloy wires to
hydrothermally synthesised uniformly zeolite coated surfaces being
demonstrated using both SEM and XRD. The robustness of the
coatings has been ascertained by subjecting these to thermal cycling
(ambient to 550oC), with the results indicating that the synthesis time
and gel compositions have a crucial effect on the quality of zeolite
growth on the FeCrAlloy wires.
Finally, the activity of the structured catalyst was verified by a
series of comparison experiments with standard zeolite Y catalysts in
powdered pelleted forms.
Abstract: Automated production lines with so called 'hard structures' are widely used in manufacturing. Designers segmented these lines into sections by placing a buffer between the series of machine tools to increase productivity. In real production condition the capacity of a buffer system is limited and real production line can compensate only some part of the productivity losses of an automated line. The productivity of such production lines cannot be readily determined. This paper presents mathematical approach to solving the structure of section-based automated production lines by criterion of maximum productivity.
Abstract: The challenge in the swing-up problem of double
inverted pendulum on a cart (DIPC) is to design a controller that
bring all DIPC's states, especially the joint angles of the two links,
into the region of attraction of the desired equilibrium. This paper
proposes a new method to swing-up DIPC based on a series of restto-
rest maneuvers of the first link about its vertically upright
configuration while holding the cart fixed at the origin. The rest-torest
maneuvers are designed such that each one results in a net gain
in energy of the second link. This results in swing-up of DIPC-s
configuration to the region of attraction of the desired equilibrium. A
three-step algorithm is provided for swing-up control followed by the
stabilization step. Simulation results with a comparison to an
experimental work done in the literature are presented to demonstrate
the efficacy of the approach.
Abstract: Analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) has become a
popular non-invasive tool for assessing the activities of autonomic
nervous system. Most of the methods were hired from techniques
used for time series analysis. Currently used methods are time
domain, frequency domain, geometrical and fractal methods. A new
technique, which searches for pattern repeatability in a time series, is
proposed for quantifying heart rate (HR) time series. These set of
indices, which are termed as pattern repeatability measure and
pattern repeatability ratio are able to distinguish HR data clearly
from noise and electroencephalogram (EEG). The results of analysis
using these measures give an insight into the fundamental difference
between the composition of HR time series with respect to EEG and
noise.
Abstract: Water level forecasting using records of past time series is of importance in water resources engineering and management. For example, water level affects groundwater tables in low-lying coastal areas, as well as hydrological regimes of some coastal rivers. Then, a reliable prediction of sea-level variations is required in coastal engineering and hydrologic studies. During the past two decades, the approaches based on the Genetic Programming (GP) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were developed. In the present study, the GP is used to forecast daily water level variations for a set of time intervals using observed water levels. The measurements from a single tide gauge at Urmia Lake, Northwest Iran, were used to train and validate the GP approach for the period from January 1997 to July 2008. Statistics, the root mean square error and correlation coefficient, are used to verify model by comparing with a corresponding outputs from Artificial Neural Network model. The results show that both these artificial intelligence methodologies are satisfactory and can be considered as alternatives to the conventional harmonic analysis.
Abstract: Microaneurysm is a key indicator of diabetic retinopathy that can potentially cause damage to retina. Early detection and automatic quantification are the keys to prevent further damage. In this paper, which focuses on automatic microaneurysm detection in images acquired through non-dilated pupils, we present a series of experiments on feature selection and automatic microaneurysm pixel classification. We found that the best feature set is a combination of 10 features: the pixel-s intensity of shade corrected image, the pixel hue, the standard deviation of shade corrected image, DoG4, the area of the candidate MA, the perimeter of the candidate MA, the eccentricity of the candidate MA, the circularity of the candidate MA, the mean intensity of the candidate MA on shade corrected image and the ratio of the major axis length and minor length of the candidate MA. The overall sensitivity, specificity, precision, and accuracy are 84.82%, 99.99%, 89.01%, and 99.99%, respectively.
Abstract: Optimal supplementary damping controller design for Thyristor Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC) is presented in this paper. For the proposed controller design, a multi-objective fitness function consisting of both damping factors and real part of system electromachanical eigenvalue is used and Real- Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA) is employed for the optimal supplementary controller parameters. The performance of the designed supplementary TCSC-based damping controller is tested on a weakly connected power system with different disturbances and loading conditions with parameter variations. Simulation results are presented and compared with a conventional power system stabilizer and also with the TCSC-based supplementary controller when the controller parameters are not optimized to show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach over a wide range of loading conditions and disturbances.