Abstract: This study employs auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach to cointegration for long run and errorcorrection modeling (ECM) for short run analysis to examine the relationship between revenue gap and economic growth for Pakistan using annual time series data over the period 1980 to 2008. The short and long run results indicate that revenue gap is statistical significant and negatively effect economic growth. The significant and negative coefficient of error correction term in ECM indicates that after a shock, the long rum equilibrium will again converge towards equilibrium about 10.406 percent within a year.
Abstract: Availability and mobilization of revenue is the main
essential with which an economy is managed and run. While
planning or while making the budgets nations set revenue targets to
be achieved. But later when the accounts are closed the actual
collections of revenue through taxes or even the non-tax revenue
collection would invariably be different as compared to the initial
estimates and targets set to be achieved. This revenue-gap distorts the
whole system and the economy disturbing all the major macroeconomic
indicators. This study is aimed to find out short and long
term impact of revenue gap on budget deficit, debt burden and
economic growth on the economy of Pakistan. For this purpose the
study uses autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration
and error correction mechanism on three different models for the
period 1980 to 2009. The empirical results show that revenue gap has
a short and long run relationship with economic growth and budget
deficit. However, revenue gap has no impact on debt burden.