Abstract: Competing risks survival data that comprises of more
than one type of event has been used in many applications, and one
of these is in clinical study (e.g. in breast cancer study). The
decision tree method can be extended to competing risks survival
data by modifying the split function so as to accommodate two or
more risks which might be dependent on each other. Recently,
researchers have constructed some decision trees for recurrent
survival time data using frailty and marginal modelling. We further
extended the method for the case of competing risks. In this paper,
we developed the decision tree method for competing risks survival
time data based on proportional hazards for subdistribution of
competing risks. In particular, we grow a tree by using deviance
statistic. The application of breast cancer data is presented. Finally,
to investigate the performance of the proposed method, simulation
studies on identification of true group of observations were executed.
Abstract: The survival of publicly listed companies largely
depends on their stocks being liquidly traded. This goal can be
achieved when new investors are attracted to invest on companies-
stocks. Among different groups of investors, individual investors are
generally less able to objectively evaluate companies- risks and
returns, and tend to be emotionally biased in their investing
decisions. Therefore their decisions may be formed as a result of
perceived risks and returns, and influenced by companies- images.
This study finds that perceived risk, perceived returns and trust
directly affect individual investors- trading decisions while attitude
towards brand partially mediates the relationships. This finding
suggests that, in courting individual investors, companies still need to
perform financially while building a good image can result in their
stocks being accepted quicker than the stocks of good performing
companies with hidden images.
Abstract: In the past 20 years the economy of the Czech
Republic has experienced substantial changes. In the 1990s the
development was affected by the transformation which sought to
establish the right conditions for privatization and creation of
elementary market relations. In the last decade the characteristic
elements such as private ownership and corresponding institutional
framework have been strengthened. This development was marked by
the accession of the Czech Republic to the EU. The Czech Republic
is striving to reduce the difference between its level of economic
development and the quality of institutional framework in
comparison with other developed countries. The process of finding
the adequate solutions has been hampered by the negative impact of
the world financial crisis on the Czech Republic and the standard of
living of its inhabitants. This contribution seeks to address the
question of whether and to which extent the economic development
of the transitive Czech economy is affected by the change in
behaviour of households and their tendency to consumption, i.e. in
the sense of reduction or increase in demand for goods and services.
It aims to verify whether the increasing trend of household
indebtedness and decreasing trend of saving pose a significant risk in
the Czech Republic. At a general level the analysis aims to contribute
to finding an answer to the question of whether the debt increase of
Czech households is connected to the risk of "eating through" the
borrowed money and whether Czech households risk falling into a
debt trap. In addition to household indebtedness risks in the Czech
Republic the analysis will focus on identification of specifics of the
transformation phase of the Czech economy in comparison with the
EU countries, or selected OECD countries.
Abstract: Genetically modified (GM) technology in food
production continued to generate controversies. Consumers were
concerned with the GM foods about the healthy and environmental
risks. While consumers- acceptance was a critical factor affecting how
widely this technology be used. According to the research review,
consumers- lack of information was one of the reasons to explain
consumers- low acceptance toward GM foods. The objective for this
study wanted to find out would informative product package affect
consumers- behavior toward GM foods. An experiment was designed
to investigate consumer behavior toward different product package
information. The results indicated that the product package
information influenced consumer product trust toward GM foods.
Compared with the traceability production system information, the
information about the GM rice was approved by authorized
organizations could increase consumers product trust in GM foods.
Consumers in Taiwan saw the information provided by authorized
organizations more credible than other information.
Abstract: Paper is dealing with vulnerability concerning elements of hydrological structures and elements of technological equipments which are acceptable for groundwater resources. The vulnerability assessment stems from the application of the register of hazards and a potential threat to individual water source elements within each type of hazard. The proposed procedure is pattern for assessing the risks of disturbance, damage, or destruction of water source by the identified natural or technological hazards and consequently for classification of these risks in relation to emergency water supply. Using of this procedure was verified on selected groundwater resource in particular region, which seems to be as potentially useful for crisis planning system.
Abstract: This paper analysis the integrated use of safety monitoring with the domestic and international latest research on rail safety protection system, and focus on the implementation of an organic whole system, with the monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, predictive control and emergency rescue system. The system framework, contents and system structure of Security system is proposed completely. It-s pointed out that the Security system is a negative feedback system composed of by safety monitoring and warning system, risk assessment and emergency rescue system. Safety monitoring and warning system focus on the monitoring target monitoring, early warning, tracking, integration of decision-making, for objective and subjective risks factors. Risk assessment system analysis the occurrence of a major Security risk mechanism, determines the standard of the future short, medium and long term safety conditions, and give prop for development of safety indicators, accident analysis and safety standards. Emergency rescue system is with the goal of rapid and effective rescue work for accident, to minimize casualties and property losses.
Abstract: Pipeline infrastructures normally represent high cost of investment and the pipeline must be free from risks that could cause environmental hazard and potential threats to personnel safety. Pipeline integrity such monitoring and management become very crucial to provide unimpeded transportation and avoiding unnecessary production deferment. Thus proper cleaning and inspection is the key to safe and reliable pipeline operation and plays an important role in pipeline integrity management program and has become a standard industry procedure. In view of this, understanding the motion (dynamic behavior), prediction and control of the PIG speed is important in executing pigging operation as it offers significant benefits, such as estimating PIG arrival time at receiving station, planning for suitable pigging operation, and improves efficiency of pigging tasks. The objective of this paper is to review recent developments in speed control system of pipeline PIGs. The review carried out would serve as an industrial application in a form of quick reference of recent developments in pipeline PIG speed control system, and further initiate others to add-in/update the list in the future leading to knowledge based data, and would attract active interest of others to share their view points.
Abstract: Trihalogenmethanes are the most significant byproducts of the reaction of disinfection agent with organic precursors naturally present in ground and surface waters.Their incidence negatively affects the quality of drinking water in relation to their nephrotoxic, hepatotoxic and genotoxic effects on human health. Taking into consideration the considerable volatility of monitored contaminants it could be assumed that their incidence in drinking water would depend on the distance of sampling from the area of disinfection. Based on the concentration of trihalogenmethanes determined with the help of gas chromatography with mass detector and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) such dependence has been proved as statistically significant. The acquired outcomes will be used for assessing the non-carcinogenic and genotoxic risks to consumers.
Abstract: The main aim of this study is to describe and introduce a method of numerical analysis in obtaining approximate solutions for the SIR-SI differential equations (susceptible-infectiverecovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) that represent a model for dengue disease transmission. Firstly, we describe the ordinary differential equations for the SIR-SI disease transmission models. Then, we introduce the numerical analysis of solutions of this continuous time, discrete space SIR-SI model by simplifying the continuous time scale to a densely populated, discrete time scale. This is followed by the application of this numerical analysis of solutions of the SIR-SI differential equations to the estimation of relative risk using continuous time, discrete space dengue data of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Finally, we present the results of the analysis, comparing and displaying the results in graphs, table and maps. Results of the numerical analysis of solutions that we implemented offers a useful and potentially superior model for estimating relative risks based on continuous time, discrete space data for vector borne infectious diseases specifically for dengue disease.
Abstract: A virtualized and virtual approach is presented on
academically preparing students to successfully engage at a strategic
perspective to understand those concerns and measures that are both
structured and not structured in the area of cyber security and
information assurance. The Master of Science in Cyber Security and
Information Assurance (MSCSIA) is a professional degree for those
who endeavor through technical and managerial measures to ensure
the security, confidentiality, integrity, authenticity, control,
availability and utility of the world-s computing and information
systems infrastructure. The National University Cyber Security and
Information Assurance program is offered as a Master-s degree. The
emphasis of the MSCSIA program uniquely includes hands-on
academic instruction using virtual computers. This past year, 2011,
the NU facility has become fully operational using system
architecture to provide a Virtual Education Laboratory (VEL)
accessible to both onsite and online students. The first student cohort
completed their MSCSIA training this past March 2, 2012 after
fulfilling 12 courses, for a total of 54 units of college credits. The
rapid pace scheduling of one course per month is immensely
challenging, perpetually changing, and virtually multifaceted. This
paper analyses these descriptive terms in consideration of those
globalization penetration breaches as present in today-s world of
cyber security. In addition, we present current NU practices to
mitigate risks.
Abstract: In recent years, strategic alliances have taken
increasing importance as a means to control competitive forces and to
enter into new markets. Joint ventures are one of the most frequently
used contractual forms in strategic alliances. There are various
motivations for cooperation between two or more firms e.g.,
accessing to technical know-how, accessing to financial resources
and managing risks. The firms must know about these motivations to
encourage for establishing joint venture. So, it is important for
managers to understand about these motives. On the other hand, the
cooperation section is one of the most effective parts in each country.
In this way, our study identifies goals of joint venture between
cooperative manufacturing firms, and prioritizes those using
TOPSIS1. The results show that the most important of joint venture
goals are: accessing to managerial know-how, sharing total capital
investment.
Abstract: Recent widespread use of information and
communication technology has greatly changed information security
risks that businesses and institutions encounter. Along with this
situation, in order to ensure security and have confidence in electronic
trading, it has become important for organizations to take competent
information security measures to provide international confidence that
sensitive information is secure. Against this backdrop, the approach to
information security checking has come to an important issue, which
is believed to be common to all countries. The purpose of this paper is
to introduce the new system of information security checking program
in Korea and to propose synthetic information security
countermeasures under domestic circumstances in order to protect
physical equipment, security management and technology, and the
operation of security check for securing services on ISP(Internet
Service Provider), IDC(Internet Data Center), and
e-commerce(shopping malls, etc.)
Abstract: Recently, the health of retired National Football
League players, particularly lineman has been investigated. A
number of studies have reported increased cardiometabolic risk,
premature cardiovascular disease and incidence of type 2 diabetes.
Rugby union players have somatotypes very similar to National
Football League players which suggests that rugby players may have
similar health risks. The International Golden Oldies World Rugby
Festival (GORF) provided a unique opportunity to investigate the
demographics of veteran rugby players. METHODOLOGIES: A
cross-sectional, observational study was completed using an online
web-based questionnaire that consisted of medical history and
physiological measures. Data analysis was completed using a one
sample t-test (50yrs) and Chi-square test. RESULTS:
A total of 216 veteran rugby competitors (response rate = 6.8%)
representing 10 countries, aged 35-72 yrs (mean 51.2, S.D. ±8.0),
participated in the online survey. As a group, the incidence of current
smokers was low at 8.8% (avg 72.4 cigs/wk) whilst the percentage
consuming alcohol was high (93.1% (avg 11.2 drinks/wk).
Competitors reported the following top six chronic
diseases/disorders; hypertension (18.6%), arthritis (OA/RA, 11.5%),
asthma (9.3%), hyperlipidemia (8.2%), diabetes (all types, 7.5%) and
gout (6%), there were significant differences between groups with
regard to cancer (all types) and migraines. When compared to the
Australian general population (Australian Bureau of Statistics data,
n=18,000), GORF competitors had a significantly lower incidence of
anxiety (p
Abstract: Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.
Abstract: In this paper the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is
applied to the selection of photovoltaic (PV) solar power projects.
These projects follow a long management and execution process
from plant site selection to plant start-up. As a consequence, there are
many risks of time delays and even of project stoppage.
In the case study presented in this paper a top manager of an
important Spanish company that operates in the power market has to
decide on the best PV project (from four alternative projects) to
invest based on risk minimization. The manager identified 50 project
execution delay and/or stoppage risks.
The influences among elements of the network (groups of risks
and alternatives) were identified and analyzed using the ANP
multicriteria decision analysis method. After analyzing the results the
main conclusion is that the network model can manage all the
information of the real-world problem and thus it is a decision
analysis model recommended by the authors. The strengths and
weaknesses ANP as a multicriteria decision analysis tool are also
described in the paper.
Abstract: Abdominal aortic aneurysms rupture (AAAs) is one of the main causes of death in the world. This is a very complex phenomenon that usually occurs “without previous warning". Currently, criteria to assess the aneurysm rupture risk (peak diameter and growth rate) can not be considered as reliable indicators. In a first approach, the main geometric parameters of aneurysms have been linked into five biomechanical factors. These are combined to obtain a dimensionless rupture risk index, RI(t), which has been validated preliminarily with a clinical case and others from literature. This quantitative indicator is easy to understand, it allows estimating the aneurysms rupture risks and it is expected to be able to identify the one in aneurysm whose peak diameter is less than the threshold value. Based on initial results, a broader study has begun with twelve patients from the Clinic Hospital of Valladolid-Spain, which are submitted to periodic follow-up examinations.
Abstract: There are many sources trough which the soil get
enriched and contaminated with REEs. The determination of REEs in
environmental samples has been limited because of the lack of
sensitive analytical techniques. Soil samples were collected from
four sites including open cast coal mine, natural coal burning, coal
washery and control in the coal field located in Dhanbad, India.
Total concentrations of rare earth elements (REEs) were determined
using the inductively coupled plasma atomic absorption spectrometry
in order to assess enrichment status in the coal field. Results showed
that the mean concentrations of La, Pr, Eu, Tb, Ho, and Tm in open
cast mine and natural coal burning sites were elevated compared to
the reference concentrations, while Ce, Nd, Sm, and Gd were
elevated in coal washery site. When compared to reference soil,
heavy REEs (HREEs) were enriched in open cast mines and natural
coal burning affected soils, however, the HREEs were depleted in the
coal washery sites. But, the Chondrite-normalization diagram showed
significant enrichment for light REEs (LREEs) in all the soils. High
concentration of Pr, Eu, Tb, Ho, Tm, and Lu in coal mining and coal
burning sites may pose human health risks. Factor analysis showed
that distribution and relative abundance of REEs of the coal washery
site is comparable with the control. Eventually washing or cleaning
of coal could significantly decrease the emission of REEs from coal
into the environment.
Abstract: The article deals with the classification of alternative water resources in terms of potential risks which is the prerequisite for incorporating these water resources to the emergency plans. The classification is based on the quantification of risks resulting from possible damage, disruption or total destruction of water resource caused by natural and anthropogenic hazards, assessment of water quality and availability, traffic accessibility of the assessed resource and finally its water yield. The aim is to achieve the development of an integrated rescue system, which will be capable of supplying the population with drinking water on the whole stricken territory during the states of emergency.
Abstract: A personal estimate of a health risk may not
correspond to a scientific assessment of the health risk. Hence, there
is a need to investigate perceived health risks in the public. In this
study, a young, educated and healthy group of people from a tertiary
institute were questioned about their health concerns. Ethics
clearance was obtained and data was collected by means of a
questionnaire. 362 students participated in the study. Tobacco use,
heavy alcohol drinking, illicit drugs, unsafe sex and potential
carcinogens were perceived to be the five greatest threats to health in
this cohort. On the other hand natural health products,
unemployment, unmet contraceptive needs, family violence and
homelessness were felt to be the least perceived health risks.
Nutrition-related health risks as well as health risks due to physical
inactivity and obesity were not perceived as major health threats.
Such a study of health perceptions may guide health promotion
campaigns.
Abstract: There are three main ways of categorizing capital in banking operations: accounting, regulatory and economic capital. However, the 2008-2009 global crisis has shown that none of these categories adequately reflects the real risks of bank operations, especially in light of the failures Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers or Northern Rock. This paper deals with the economic capital allocation of global banks. In theory, economic capital should reflect the real risks of a bank and should be publicly available. Yet, as discovered during the global financial crisis, even when economic capital information was publicly disclosed, the underlying assumptions rendered the information useless. Specifically, some global banks that reported relatively high levels of economic capital before the crisis went bankrupt or had to be bailed-out by their government. And, only 15 out of 50 global banks reported their economic capital during the 2007-2010 period. In this paper, we analyze the changes in reported bank economic capital disclosure during this period. We conclude that relative shares of credit and business risks increased in 2010 compared to 2007, while both operational and market risks decreased their shares on the total economic capital of top-rated global banks. Generally speaking, higher levels of disclosure and transparency of bank operations are required to obtain more confidence from stakeholders. Moreover, additional risks such as liquidity risks should be included in these disclosures.