Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence and relative share of underwriting risks in explaining the variation in insurance cycles in subsequent periods. Through the insurance contracts they underwrite, insurance companies assume risks. Underwriting risks include pricing risk, reserve risk, reinsurance risk and occurrence risk. These risks pose major risks for property and liability insurers, and therefore their impact on the insurance cycle is important. The main goal of this paper is to determine the relative proportion of underwriting risks in explaining the variation of insurance cycle. In order to fulfill the main goal of the paper vector autoregressive model, VAR, will be applied.
Abstract: Just-In-Time (JIT) is a lean manufacturing tool, which provides the benefits of efficiency, and of minimizing unnecessary costs for many organisations. However, the risks arising from these benefits have been disregarded. These risks impact on system processes disrupting the whole supply chain. This paper proposes an inventory model that can simultaneously reduce costs and risks in JIT systems. This model is developed to ascertain an optimal ordering strategy for procuring raw materials by using regular multi-external and local backup suppliers to reduce the total cost of the products, and at the same time to reduce the risks arising from this cost reduction within production systems. Some results that will be illustrated in the second part of this paper are presented.
Abstract: Radioactive waste management is fundamental to safeguard population and environment by radiological risks. Environmental assessment of a site, where nuclear activities are located, allows understanding the hydro geological system and the radionuclides transport in groundwater and subsoil. Use of dedicated software is the basis of transport phenomena investigation and for dynamic scenarios prediction; this permits to understand the evolution of accidental contamination events, but at the same time the potentiality of the software itself can be verified. The aim of this paper is to perform a numerical analysis by means of HYDRUS 1D code, so as to evaluate radionuclides transport in a nuclear site in Piedmont region (Italy). In particular, the behavior in vadose zone was investigated. An iterative assessment process was performed for risk assessment of radioactive contamination. The analysis therein developed considers the following aspects: i) hydro geological site characterization; ii) individuation of the main intrinsic and external site factors influencing water flow and radionuclides transport phenomena; iii) software potential for radionuclides leakage simulation purposes.
Abstract: Risk Evaluation is an important step in protecting your workers and your business, as well as complying with the law. It helps you focus on the risks that really matter in your workplace – the ones with the potential to cause real harm. We are in this paper introduce basics of risk assessment then we mention some of ways to risk evaluation by computer especially Monte Carlo simulation and Microsoft project.
We use Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) to deal with Risks in Industrial Facilities in Evaluation and Assessment for this risk. Using PERT Technique in Microsoft Project by the PERT toolbar and using PERTMASTER Program with Primavera Program we evaluate many hazards and make calculations for that by mathematical equation to make right decisions. We define and calculate risk factor and risk severity to ranking the type of the risk then dealing with it using in that many ways like probability computation, curves, and tables. By introducing variables in the equation of functions in computer programs we calculate the risk in the time and the cost in general case and then mention some examples in industrial facilities field.
Abstract: The MIGR’HYCAR research project was initiated to provide decisional tools for risks connected to oil spill drifts in continental waters. These tools aim to serve in the decision-making process once oil spill pollution occurs and/or as reference tools to study scenarios of potential impacts of pollutions on a given site. This paper focuses on the study of the distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and derivatives from oil spill in water as function of environmental parameters. Eight petroleum oils covering a representative range of commercially available products were tested. 41 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and derivates, among them 16 EPA priority pollutants were studied by dynamic tests at laboratory scale. The chemical profile of the water soluble fraction was different from the parent oil profile due to the various water solubility of oil components. Semi-volatile compounds (naphtalenes) constitute the major part of the water soluble fraction. A large variation in composition of the water soluble fraction was highlighted depending on oil type. Moreover, four environmental parameters (temperature, suspended solid quantity, salinity and oil: water surface ratio) were investigated with the Taguchi experimental design methodology. The results showed that oils are divided into three groups: the solubility of Domestic fuel and Jet A1 presented a high sensitivity to parameters studied, meaning they must be taken into account. For Gasoline (SP95-E10) and Diesel fuel, a medium sensitivity to parameters was observed. In fact, the four others oils have shown low sensitivity to parameters studied. Finally, three parameters were found to be significant towards the water soluble fraction.
Abstract: Big data has the potential to improve the quality of services; enable infrastructure that businesses depend on to adapt continually and efficiently; improve the performance of employees; help organizations better understand customers; and reduce liability risks. Analytics and marketing models of fixed and mobile operators are falling short in combating churn and declining revenue per user. Big Data presents new method to reverse the way and improve profitability. The benefits of Big Data and next-generation network, however, are more exorbitant than improved customer relationship management. Next generation of networks are in a prime position to monetize rich supplies of customer information—while being mindful of legal and privacy issues. As data assets are transformed into new revenue streams will become integral to high performance.
Abstract: Growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, cross-border bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012 almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. Under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.
Abstract: Osteoporosis is a complex health disease characterized by low bone mineral density, which is determined by an interaction of genetics with metabolic and environmental factors. Current research in genetics of osteoporosis is focused on identification of responsible genes and polymorphisms. TNFRSF11B gene plays a key role in bone remodeling. The aim of this study was to investigate the genotype and allele distribution of A163G (rs3102735) osteoprotegerin gene promoter and G1181C (rs2073618) osteoprotegerin first exon polymorphisms in the group of 180 unrelated postmenopausal women with diagnosed osteoporosis and 180 normal controls. Genomic DNA was isolated from peripheral blood leukocytes using standard methodology. Genotyping for presence of different polymorphisms was performed using the Custom Taqman®SNP Genotyping assays. Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was tested for each SNP in the groups of participants using the chi-square (χ2) test. The distribution of investigated genotypes in the group of patients with osteoporosis were as follows: AA (66.7%), AG (32.2%), GG (1.1%) for A163G polymorphism; GG (19.4%), CG (44.4%), CC (36.1%) for G1181C polymorphism. The distribution of genotypes in normal controls were follows: AA (71.1%), AG (26.1%), GG (2.8%) for A163G polymorphism; GG (22.2%), CG (48.9%), CC (28.9%) for G1181C polymorphism. In A163G polymorphism the variant G allele was more common among patients with osteoporosis: 17.2% versus 15.8% in normal controls. Also, in G1181C polymorphism the phenomenon of more frequent occurrence of C allele in the group of patients with osteoporosis was observed (58.3% versus 53.3%). Genotype and allele distributions showed no significant differences (A163G: χ2=0.270, p=0.605; χ2=0.250, p=0.616; G1181C: χ2= 1.730, p=0.188; χ2=1.820, p=0.177). Our results represents an initial study, further studies of more numerous file and associations studies will be carried out. Knowing the distribution of genotypes is important for assessing the impact of these polymorphisms on various parameters associated with osteoporosis. Screening for identification of “at-risk” women likely to develop osteoporosis and initiating subsequent early intervention appears to be most effective strategy to substantially reduce the risks of osteoporosis.
Abstract: International market expansion involves a strategic process of market entry decision through which a firm expands its operation from domestic to the international domain. Hence, entry timing choices require the needs to balance the early entry risks and the problems in losing opportunities as a result of late entry into a new market. Questionnaire surveys administered to 115 Malaysian construction firms operating in 51 countries worldwide have resulted in 39.1 percent response rate. Factor analysis was used to determine the most significant factors affecting entry timing choices of the firms to penetrate the international market. A logistic regression analysis used to examine the firms’ entry timing choices, indicates that the model has correctly classified 89.5 per cent of cases as late movers. The findings reveal that the most significant factor influencing the construction firms’ choices as late movers was the firm factor related to the firm’s international experience, resources, competencies and financing capacity. The study also offers valuable information to construction firms with intention to internationalize their businesses.
Abstract: As many recent researches being implemented in aviation and maritime aspects, strong doubts have been raised concerning the reliability of the estimation of collision risk. It is shown that using position and velocity of objects can lead to imprecise results. In this paper, therefore, a new approach to the estimation of collision risks using pose and shape of objects is proposed. Simulation results are presented validating the accuracy of the new criterion to adapt to collision risk algorithm based on fuzzy logic.
Abstract: On March 11, 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred off the coast of Sanriku, Japan. It is important to build a sustainable society through the reconstruction process rather than simply restoring the infrastructure. To compare the goals of reconstruction plans of quake-stricken municipalities, Japanese language morphological analysis was performed by using text mining techniques. Frequently-used nouns were sorted into four main categories of “life”, “disaster prevention”, “economy”, and “harmony with environment”. Because Soma City is affected by nuclear accident, sentences tagged to “harmony with environment” tended to be frequent compared to the other municipalities. Results from cluster analysis and principle component analysis clearly indicated that the local government reinforces the efforts to reduce risks from radiation exposure as a top priority.
Abstract: Spoilage occurs in plant produce due to the action of field and storage microorganisms. The conditions of storage can also cause physiological spoilage. Various methods exist to ensure that these food substances maintain their quality long after harvesting. However, many of these methods either fail to keep the plant for the required period or predispose the plant to other spoilage risks. The major shortcoming posed by the use of many antimicrobials is the chemical residues it deposits in the food substance. The use of plants in preservation has been in use for a long period, though little understood then, it served its purposes. A better understanding of the roles of these plant parts in increasing the shelf life of farm produce has helped in the creation of more effective and safer means of pest and microbial control. This can be extended to plants that have not been used for these purposes initially. Microbial sources should also be investigated as these have provided cheaper sources of secondary metabolites.
Abstract: Trihalogenmethanes (THMs) are disinfection byproducts with non-carcinogenic and genotoxic effects. The contamination of 6 sites close to the water treatment plant has been monitored in second largest city of the Czech Republic. Health risk assessment including both non-carcinogenic and genotoxic risk for long term exposition was realized using the critical concentrations. Concentrations of trihalogenmethanes met national standards in all samples. Risk assessment proved that health risks from trihalogenmethanes are acceptable on each site.
Abstract: Medical care is vital for our life, health and well-being. But the waste generated from medical activities can be hazardous, toxic and even lethal because of their high potential for diseases transmission. The hazardous and toxic parts of waste from healthcare establishments comprising infectious, medical and radioactive material as well as sharps constitute a grave risks to mankind and the environment, if these are not properly treated / disposed or are allowed to be mixed with other municipal waste. In Nigeria, practical information on this aspect is inadequate and research on the public health implications of poor management of medical wastes is few and limited in scope. Findings drawn from Literature particularly in the third world countries highlights financial problems, lack of awareness of risks involved in MWM, lack of appropriate legislation and lack of specialized MWM staff. The paper recommends how MWM practices can be improved in medical facilities.
Abstract: Most empirical studies have analyzed how liquidity risks faced by individual institutions turn into systemic risk. Recent banking crisis has highlighted the importance of grasping and controlling the systemic risk, and the acceptance by Central Banks to ease their monetary policies for saving default or illiquid banks. This last point shows that banks would pay less attention to liquidity risk which, in turn, can become a new important channel of loss. The financial regulation focuses on the most important and “systemic” banks in the global network. However, to quantify the expected loss associated with liquidity risk, it is worth to analyze sensitivity to this channel for the various elements of the global bank network. A small bank is not considered as potentially systemic; however the interaction of small banks all together can become a systemic element. This paper analyzes the impact of medium and small banks interaction on a set of banks which is considered as the core of the network. The proposed method uses the structure of agent-based model in a two-class environment. In first class, the data from actual balance sheets of 22 large and systemic banks (such as BNP Paribas or Barclays) are collected. In second one, to model a network as closely as possible to actual interbank market, 578 fictitious banks smaller than the ones belonging to first class have been split into two groups of small and medium ones. All banks are active on the European interbank network and have deposit and market activity. A simulation of 12 three month periods representing a midterm time interval three years is projected. In each period, there is a set of behavioral descriptions: repayment of matured loans, liquidation of deposits, income from securities, collection of new deposits, new demands of credit, and securities sale. The last two actions are part of refunding process developed in this paper. To strengthen reliability of proposed model, random parameters dynamics are managed with stochastic equations as rates the variations of which are generated by Vasicek model. The Central Bank is considered as the lender of last resort which allows banks to borrow at REPO rate and some ejection conditions of banks from the system are introduced.
Liquidity crunch due to exogenous crisis is simulated in the first class and the loss impact on other bank classes is analyzed though aggregate values representing the aggregate of loans and/or the aggregate of borrowing between classes. It is mainly shown that the three groups of European interbank network do not have the same response, and that intermediate banks are the most sensitive to liquidity risk.
Abstract: In May 2009, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted the Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships to address the growing concerns about the environmental, occupational health and safety risks related to ship recycling. The aim of the Hong Kong Convention is to provide a legally binding instrument which ensures that the process of ship recycling does not pose risks to human health, safety and to the environment. In this paper, critical analysis of the Hong Kong Convention has been carried out in order to study the effectiveness of the Convention to meet its objectives. The Convention has been studied in detail including its background, main features, major stakeholders, strengths and weaknesses. The Convention, though having several deficiencies, is a major breakthrough in not only recognizing but also dealing with the ill-practices associated with ship recycling.
Abstract: Two different testicular tissues have to be distinguished in regard to radiation damage: first the seminiferous tubules, corresponding to the sites of spermatogenesis, which are extremely radiosensitive. Second the testosterone secreting Leydig cells, which are considered to be less radiosensitive. This study aims to estimate testicular dose and the associated risks for infertility and hereditary effects from Abdominal and pelvic irradiation. Radiotherapy was simulated on a humanoid phantom using a 15 MV photon beam. Testicular dose was measured for various field sizes and tissue thicknesses along beam axis using an ionization chamber and TLD. For transmission Factor Also common method of measuring the absorbed dose distribution and electron contamination in the build-up region of high-energy beams for radiation therapy is by means of parallel-plate Ionisation chambers. Gonadal dose was reduced by placing lead cups around the testes supplemented by a field edge block. For a tumor dose of 100 cGy, testicular dose was 2.96-8.12 cGy depending upon the field size and the distance from the inferior field edge. The treatment at parameters, the presence of gonad shield and the somatometric characteristics determine whether testicular dose can exceed 1 Gy which allows a complete recovery of spermatogenesis.
Abstract: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have gained tremendous importance, in both Military and Civil, during first decade of this century. In a UAV, onboard computer (autopilot) autonomously controls the flight and navigation of the aircraft. Based on the aircraft role and flight envelope, basic to complex and sophisticated controllers are used to stabilize the aircraft flight parameters. These controllers constitute the autopilot system for UAVs. The autopilot systems, most commonly, provide lateral and longitudinal control through Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controllers or Phase-lead or Lag Compensators. Various techniques are commonly used to ‘tune’ gains of these controllers. Some techniques used are, in-flight step-by-step tuning, software-in-loop or hardware-in-loop tuning methods. Subsequently, numerous in-flight tests are required to actually ‘fine-tune’ these gains. However, an optimization-based tuning of these PID controllers or compensators, as presented in this paper, can greatly minimize the requirement of in-flight ‘tuning’ and substantially reduce the risks and cost involved in flight-testing.
Abstract: Although the Vietnamese catfish farming has grown
at very high rates in recent years, the industry has also faced many
problems affecting its sustainability. This paper studies the
perceptions of catfish farmers regarding risk and risk management
strategies in their production activities. Specifically, the study aims
to measure the consequences, likelihoods, and levels of risks as well
as the efficacy of risk management in Vietnamese catfish farming.
Data for the study were collected through a sample of 261 catfish
farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam using a questionnaire survey
in 2008. Results show that, in general, price and production risks
were perceived as the most important risks. Farm management and
technical measures were perceived more effective than other kinds of
risk management strategies in risk reduction. Although price risks
were rated as important risks, price risk management strategies were
not perceived as important measures for risk mitigation. The results
of the study are discussed to provide implications for various
industry stakeholders, including policy makers, processors, advisors,
and developers of new risk management strategies.
Abstract: Over the years, there is a growing trend towards
quality-based specifications in highway construction. In many
Quality Control/Quality Assurance (QC/QA) specifications, the
contractor is primarily responsible for quality control of the process,
whereas the highway agency is responsible for testing the acceptance
of the product. A cooperative investigation was conducted in Illinois
over several years to develop a prototype End-Result Specification
(ERS) for asphalt pavement construction. The final characteristics of
the product are stipulated in the ERS and the contractor is given
considerable freedom in achieving those characteristics. The risk for
the contractor or agency depends on how the acceptance limits and
processes are specified. Stochastic simulation models are very useful
in estimating and analyzing payment risk in ERS systems and these
form an integral part of the Illinois-s prototype ERS system. This
paper describes the development of an innovative methodology to
estimate the variability components in in-situ density, air voids and
asphalt content data from ERS projects. The information gained from
this would be crucial in simulating these ERS projects for estimation
and analysis of payment risks associated with asphalt pavement
construction. However, these methods require at least two parties to
conduct tests on all the split samples obtained according to the
sampling scheme prescribed in present ERS implemented in Illinois.