Abstract: Many firms implemented various initiatives such as outsourced manufacturing which could make a supply chain (SC) more vulnerable to various types of disruptions. So managing risk has become a critical component of SC management. Different types of SC vulnerability management methodologies have been proposed for managing SC risk, most offer only point-based solutions that deal with a limited set of risks. This research aims to reinforce SC risk management by proposing an integrated approach. SC risks are identified and a risk index classification structure is created. Then we develop a SC risk assessment approach based on the analytic network process (ANP) and the VIKOR methods under the fuzzy environment where the vagueness and subjectivity are handled with linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. By using FANP, risks weights are calculated and then inserted to the FVIKOR to rank the SC members and find the most risky partner.
Abstract: As the new industrial revolution advances in the
nanotechnology have been followed with interest throughout the
world and also in Turkey. Media has an important role in conveying
these advances to public, rising public awareness and creating
attitudes related to nanotechnology. As well as representing how a
subject is treated, media frames determine how public think about
this subject. In literature definite frames related to nanoscience and
nanotechnology such as process, regulation, conflict and risks were
mentioned in studies focusing different countries. So how
nanotechnology news is treated by which frames and in which news
categories in Turkey as a one of developing countries? In this study
examining different variables about nanotechnology that affect
public attitudes such as category, frame, story tone, source in Turkish
media via framing analysis developed in agenda setting studies was
aimed. In the analysis data between 2005 and 2009 obtained from the
first five national newspapers with wide circulation in Turkey will be
used. In this study the direction of the media about nanotechnology,
in which frames nanotechnologic advances brought to agenda were
reported as news, and sectoral, legal, economic and social scenes
reflected by these frames to public related to nanotechnology in
Turkey were planned.
Abstract: This study analyzed environmental health risks and
people-s perceptions of risks related to waste management in poor
settlements of Abidjan, to develop integrated solutions for health and
well-being improvement. The trans-disciplinary approach used relied
on remote sensing, a geographic information system (GIS),
qualitative and quantitative methods such as interviews and a
household survey (n=1800). Mitigating strategies were then
developed using an integrated participatory stakeholder workshop.
Waste management deficiencies resulting in lack of drainage and
uncontrolled solid and liquid waste disposal in the poor settlements
lead to severe environmental health risks. Health problems were
caused by direct handling of waste, as well as through broader
exposure of the population. People in poor settlements had little
awareness of health risks related to waste management in their
community and a general lack of knowledge pertaining to sanitation
systems. This unfortunate combination was the key determinant
affecting the health and vulnerability. For example, an increased
prevalence of malaria (47.1%) and diarrhoea (19.2%) was observed
in the rainy season when compared to the dry season (32.3% and
14.3%). Concerted and adapted solutions that suited all the
stakeholders concerned were developed in a participatory workshop
to allow for improvement of health and well-being.
Abstract: Due to the increasing and varying risks that economic units face with, derivative instruments gain substantial importance, and trading volumes of derivatives have reached very significant level. Parallel with these high trading volumes, researchers have developed many different models. Some are parametric, some are nonparametric. In this study, the aim is to analyse the success of artificial neural network in pricing of options with S&P 100 index options data. Generally, the previous studies cover the data of European type call options. This study includes not only European call option but also American call and put options and European put options. Three data sets are used to perform three different ANN models. One only includes data that are directly observed from the economic environment, i.e. strike price, spot price, interest rate, maturity, type of the contract. The others include an extra input that is not an observable data but a parameter, i.e. volatility. With these detail data, the performance of ANN in put/call dimension, American/European dimension, moneyness dimension is analyzed and whether the contribution of the volatility in neural network analysis make improvement in prediction performance or not is examined. The most striking results revealed by the study is that ANN shows better performance when pricing call options compared to put options; and the use of volatility parameter as an input does not improve the performance.
Abstract: Risk of infectious disease outbreaks is related to the
hygiene among the population. To assess the actual risks and modify
the relevant emergency procedures if necessary, a hygiene survey
was conducted among undergraduate students on the Rhodes
University campus. Soap was available to 10.5% and only 26.8% of
the study participants followed proper hygiene in relation to food
consumption. This combination increases the risk of infectious
disease outbreaks at the campus. Around 83.6% were willing to wash
their hands if soap was provided. Procurement and availability of
soap in undergraduate residences on campus should be improved, as
the total cost is estimated at only 2000 USD per annum. Awareness
campaigns about food-related hygiene and the need for regular handwashing
with soap should be run among Rhodes University students.
If successful, rates of respiratory and hygiene-related diseases will be
decreased and emergency health management simplified.
Abstract: The higher compounded growth rates coupled with
favourable demographics in emerging markets portend abundant
opportunities for multinational organizations. With many
organizations competing for talent in these growing markets, their
ability to succeed will depend on their understanding of local
workforce needs and aspirations. Using data from the Towers Watson
2010 Global Workforce Study, this paper highlights differences in
employee engagement, turnover risks, and attraction and retention
drivers between the two markets. Apart from looking at the
traditional drivers of employee engagement, the study also explores
the value placed by employees on elements like a strong senior
leadership, managerial capabilities and career advancement
opportunities. Results reveal that emerging markets employees seem
to be more engaged and value the non-traditional elements more
highly than the developed markets employees.
Abstract: Nanotechnology is the science of creating, using and
manipulating objects which have at least one dimension in range of
0.1 to 100 nanometers. In other words, nanotechnology is
reconstructing a substance using its individual atoms and arranging
them in a way that is desirable for our purpose.
The main reason that nanotechnology has been attracting
attentions is the unique properties that objects show when they are
formed at nano-scale. These differing characteristics that nano-scale
materials show compared to their nature-existing form is both useful
in creating high quality products and dangerous when being in
contact with body or spread in environment.
In order to control and lower the risk of such nano-scale particles,
the main following three topics should be considered:
1) First of all, these materials would cause long term diseases that
may show their effects on body years after being penetrated in human
organs and since this science has become recently developed in
industrial scale not enough information is available about their
hazards on body.
2) The second is that these particles can easily spread out in
environment and remain in air, soil or water for very long time,
besides their high ability to penetrate body skin and causing new
kinds of diseases.
3) The third one is that to protect body and environment against
the danger of these particles, the protective barriers must be finer than
these small objects and such defenses are hard to accomplish.
This paper will review, discuss and assess the risks that human and
environment face as this new science develops at a high rate.
Abstract: Lutein is a dietary oxycarotenoid which is found
to reduce the risks of Age-related Macular Degeneration
(AMD). Supercritical fluid extraction of lutein esters from
marigold petals was carried out and was found to be much
effective than conventional solvent extraction. The
saponification of pre-concentrated lutein esters to produce free
lutein was studied which showed a composition of about 88%
total carotenoids (UV-VIS spectrophotometry) and 90.7%
lutein (HPLC). The lipase catalyzed hydrolysis of lutein esters
in conventional medium was investigated. The optimal
temperature, pH, enzyme concentration and water activity
were found to be 50°C, 7, 15% and 0.33 respectively and the
activity loss of lipase was about 25% after 8 times re-use in at
50°C for 12 days. However, the lipase catalyzed hydrolysis of
lutein esters in conventional media resulted in poor
conversions (16.4%).
Abstract: Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global
regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and
market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel
Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to
be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set
of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking
sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic
stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and
governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures.
Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential,
regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking
institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations,
system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well
as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two
approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at
the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks.
Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the
medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is
in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand
economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending
spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher
capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated
effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary
policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a
reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30
to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework
based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises.
Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute
to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first
part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking
system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second
part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed.
The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of
the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.
Abstract: The case study deals with the semi-quantitative risk
assessment of water resource earmarked for the emergency supply
of population with drinking water. The risk analysis has been based
on previously identified hazards/sensitivities of the elements
of hydrogeological structure and technological equipment of ground
water resource as well as on the assessment of the levels of hazard,
sensitivity and criticality of individual resource elements in the form
of point indexes. The following potential sources of hazard have
been considered: natural disasters caused by atmospheric and
geological changes, technological hazards, and environmental
burdens. The risk analysis has proved that the assessed risks are
acceptable and the water resource may be integrated into a crisis plan
of a given region.
Abstract: The development of sustainable utilization water resources is crucial. The ecological environment and water resources systems form the foundation of the existence and development of the social economy. The urban ecological support system depends on these resources as well. This research studies the vulnerability, criticality, and risk of climate change on water supply and demand in the main administrative district of the Taijiang Area (Tainan City). Based on the two situations set in this paper and various factors (indexes), this research adopts two kinds of weights (equal and AHP) to conduct the calculation and establish the water supply and demand risk map for the target year 2039. According to the risk analysis result, which is based on equal weight, only one district belongs to a high-grade district (Grade 4). Based on the AHP weight, 16 districts belong to a high-grade or higher-grade district (Grades 4 and 5), and from among them, two districts belong to the highest grade (Grade 5). These results show that the risk level of water supply and demand in cities is higher than that in towns. The government generally gives more attention to the adjustment strategy in the “cities." However, it should also provide proper adjustment strategies for the “towns" to be able to cope with the risks of water supply and demand.
Abstract: Baltic competitiveness is quite controversial. In a
situation with the rapid structural changes, economy develops in
balance very rarely - in different fields will always be more rapid
changes in another more stagnation.
Analyzing different economic indices developed by international
organizations the situation in three Baltic countries are described
from a different competitiveness positions highlighting strengths and
weaknesses of each country.
Exploring the openness of the economy, it is possible to observe
certain risks included in the reports describing situation of
competitiveness where government policies competing in the tax
system, the rates of labour market policies, investment environment,
etc. This is a very important factor resulting in competitive
advantage.
Baltic countries are still at a weak position from a technological
perspective, and need to borrow the knowledge and technology from
more developed countries.
Abstract: Mobile banking services present a unique growth
opportunity for mobile operators in emerging markets, and have
already made good progress in bringing financial services to the
previously unbanked populations of many developing countries. The
potential is amazing, but what about the risks? In the complex
process of establishing a mobile banking business model, many kinds
of risks and factors need to be monitored and well-managed. Risk
identification is the first stage of risk management. Correct risk
identification ensures risk management effectiveness. Keeping the
risks low makes it possible to use the full potential of mobile banking
and carry out the planned business strategy. The focus should be on
adoption of consumers which is the main risk factor of mobile
banking services.
Abstract: To estimate the risks of dam failure phenomenon, it is necessary to understand this phenomenon and the involved governing factors. Overtopping and piping are the two main reasons of earthdam failures. In the piping context, the piping is determined as a phenomenon which is occurred between two phases, the water liquid and the solid soil. In this investigation, the onset of piping and its development, as well as the movement of water in soil, are numerically approached. In this regard, a one-dimensional numerical model based on the mass-conserving finite-volume method is developed and applied in order to simulate the piping phenomenon in a continuous circular tunnel of given initial length and radius, located between upstream and downstream. The simulation result includes the time-variations of radius along the tunnel until the radius value reaches its critical and the piping phenomenon converts to overtopping.
Abstract:
Innovation is becoming more and more important in
modern society. There are a lot of researches on different kinds of
innovation but marketing innovation is one kind of innovation that
has not been studied frequently before. Marketing innovation is
defined as a new way in which companies can market themselves to
potential or existing customers.
The study shows some key elements for marketing innovation that
are worth paying attention to when implementing marketing
innovation projects. Examples of such key elements are: paying
attention to the neglected market, suitable market segmentatio
reliable market information, public relationship, increased customer
value, combination of market factors, explore different marketing
channels and the use of technology in combination with what? Beside
the key elements for marketing innovation, we also present some
risks that may occur, such as cost, market uncertainty, information
leakage, imitation and overdependence on experience.
By proposing a set of indicators to measure marketing innovation,
the article offers solutions for marketing innovation implementation
so that any organization can achieve optimal results.
Abstract: Housebuilders in England have been the target of numerous government policies in recent years promoting increased productivity and affordability. As a result, the housebuilding industry is currently faced with objectives to improve the affordability and sustainability of new homes whilst also increasing production rates to 240,000 per year by 2016.Yet amidst a faltering economic climate, the UK Government is forging ahead with the 'Code for Sustainable Homes', which includes stringent sustainable standards for all new homes and sets ambitious targets for the housebuilding industry, the culmination of which is the production of zero carbon homes by 2016.Great uncertainty exists amongst housebuilders as to the costs, benefits and risks of building zero carbon homes. This paper examines the key barriers to zero carbon homes from housebuilders- perspective. A comprehensive opinion on the challenges to deliver zero carbon homes is gathered through a questionnaire survey issued to the major housing developers in England. The study found that a number of cultural, legislative, and financial barriers stand in the way of the widespread construction of zero carbon homes. The study concludes with several recommendations to both the Government and the housebuilding industry to address the barriers that hinder a successful delivery of zero carbon homes in England.
Abstract: This study proposes a materials procurement contracts
model to which the zero-cost collar option is applied for heading price
fluctuation risks in construction.The material contract model based on
the collar option that consists of the call option striking zone of the
construction company(the buyer) following the materials price
increase andthe put option striking zone of the material vendor(the
supplier) following a materials price decrease. This study first
determined the call option strike price Xc of the construction company
by a simple approach: it uses the predicted profit at the project starting
point and then determines the strike price of put option Xp that has an
identical option value, which completes the zero-cost material
contract.The analysis results indicate that the cost saving of the
construction company increased as Xc decreased. This was because the
critical level of the steel materials price increasewas set at a low level.
However, as Xc decreased, Xpof a put option that had an identical
option value gradually increased. Cost saving increased as Xc
decreased. However, as Xp gradually increased, the risk of loss from a
construction company increased as the steel materials price decreased.
Meanwhile, cost saving did not occur for the construction company,
because of volatility. This result originated in the zero-cost features of
the two-way contract of the collar option. In the case of the regular
one-way option, the transaction cost had to be subtracted from the cost
saving. The transaction cost originated from an option value that
fluctuated with the volatility. That is, the cost saving of the one-way
option was affected by the volatility. Meanwhile, even though the
collar option with zero transaction cost cut the connection between
volatility and cost saving, there was a risk of exercising the put option.
Abstract: In this paper, we propose a hardware and software
design method for automotive Electronic Control Units (ECU)
considering the functional safety. The proposed ECU is considered for
the application to Electro-Mechanical Actuator systems and the
validity of the design method is shown by the application to the
Electro-Mechanical Brake (EMB) control system which is used as a
brake actuator in Brake-By-Wire (BBW) systems. The importance of a
functional safety-based design approach to EMB ECU design has been
emphasized because of its safety-critical functions, which are executed
with the aid of many electric actuators, sensors, and application
software. Based on hazard analysis and risk assessment according to
ISO26262, the EMB system should be ASIL-D-compliant, the highest
ASIL level. To this end, an external signature watchdog and an
Infineon 32-bit microcontroller TriCore are used to reduce risks
considering common-cause hardware failure. Moreover, a software
design method is introduced for implementing functional
safety-oriented monitoring functions based on an asymmetric dual
core architecture considering redundancy and diversity. The validity
of the proposed ECU design approach is verified by using the EMB
Hardware-In-the-Loop (HILS) system, which consists of the EMB
assembly, actuator ECU, a host PC, and a few debugging devices.
Furthermore, it is shown that the existing sensor fault tolerant control
system can be used more effectively for mitigating the effects of
hardware and software faults by applying the proposed ECU design
method.
Abstract: Estimation time and cost of work completion in a
project and follow up them during execution are contributors to
success or fail of a project, and is very important for project
management team. Delivering on time and within budgeted cost
needs to well managing and controlling the projects. To dealing with
complex task of controlling and modifying the baseline project
schedule during execution, earned value management systems have
been set up and widely used to measure and communicate the real
physical progress of a project. But it often fails to predict the total
duration of the project. In this paper data mining techniques is used
predicting the total project duration in term of Time Estimate At
Completion-EAC (t). For this purpose, we have used a project with
90 activities, it has updated day by day. Then, it is used regular
indexes in literature and applied Earned Duration Method to
calculate time estimate at completion and set these as input data for
prediction and specifying the major parameters among them using
Clem software. By using data mining, the effective parameters on
EAC and the relationship between them could be extracted and it is
very useful to manage a project with minimum delay risks. As we
state, this could be a simple, safe and applicable method in prediction
the completion time of a project during execution.
Abstract: The right information at the right time influences the
enterprise and technical success. Sharing knowledge among members
of a big organization may be a complex activity. And as long as the
knowledge is not shared, can not be exploited by the organization.
There are some mechanisms which can originate knowledge sharing.
It is intended, in this paper, to trigger these mechanisms by using
semantic nets. Moreover, the intersection and overlapping of terms
and sub-terms, as well as their relationships will be described through
the mereology science for the whole knowledge sharing system. It is
proposed a knowledge system to supply to operators with the right
information about a specific process and possible risks, e.g. at the
assembly process, at the right time in an automated manufacturing
environment, such as at the automotive industry.