Abstract: S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies.
However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead
to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology
forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be
discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other
forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in
technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages,
disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on
3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the
results will be discussed.
Abstract: This paper introduces a mixed integer programming model to find the optimum development plan for port Anzali. The model minimizes total system costs taking into account both port infrastructure costs and shipping costs. Due to the multipurpose function of the port, the model consists of 1020 decision variables and 2490 constraints. Results of the model determine the optimum number of berths that should be constructed in each period and for each type of cargo. In addition to, the results of sensitivity analysis on port operation quantity provide useful information for managers to choose the best scenario for port planning with the lowest investment risks. Despite all limitations-due to data availability-the model offers a straightforward decision tools to port planners aspiring to achieve optimum port planning steps.
Abstract: The heat storage capacity of concrete in building shells is a major reason for excessively large electricity consumption induced by indoor air conditioning. In this research, the previously developed Smart Temperature Information Material (STIM) is embedded in two groups of exterior wall specimens (the control group contains reinforced concrete exterior walls and the experimental group consists of tiled exterior walls). Long term temperature measurements within the concrete are taken by the embedded STIM. Temperature differences between the control group and the experimental group in walls facing the four cardinal directions (east, west, south, and north) are evaluated. This study aims to provide a basic reference for the design of exterior walls and the selection of heat insulation materials.
Abstract: A fast adaptive Tomlinson Harashima (T-H) precoder structure is presented for indoor wireless communications, where the channel may vary due to rotation and small movement of the mobile terminal. A frequency-selective slow fading channel which is time-invariant over a frame is assumed. In this adaptive T-H precoder, feedback coefficients are updated at the end of every uplink frame by using system identification technique for channel estimation in contrary with the conventional T-H precoding concept where the channel is estimated during the starting of the uplink frame via Wiener solution. In conventional T-H precoder it is assumed the channel is time-invariant in both uplink and downlink frames. However assuming the channel is time-invariant over only one frame instead of two, the proposed adaptive T-H precoder yields better performance than conventional T-H precoder if the channel is varied in uplink after receiving the training sequence.
Abstract: A multilayer self organizing neural neural network
(MLSONN) architecture for binary object extraction, guided by a beta
activation function and characterized by backpropagation of errors
estimated from the linear indices of fuzziness of the network output
states, is discussed. Since the MLSONN architecture is designed to
operate in a single point fixed/uniform thresholding scenario, it does
not take into cognizance the heterogeneity of image information in
the extraction process. The performance of the MLSONN architecture
with representative values of the threshold parameters of the beta
activation function employed is also studied. A three layer bidirectional
self organizing neural network (BDSONN) architecture
comprising fully connected neurons, for the extraction of objects from
a noisy background and capable of incorporating the underlying image
context heterogeneity through variable and adaptive thresholding,
is proposed in this article. The input layer of the network architecture
represents the fuzzy membership information of the image scene to
be extracted. The second layer (the intermediate layer) and the final
layer (the output layer) of the network architecture deal with the self
supervised object extraction task by bi-directional propagation of the
network states. Each layer except the output layer is connected to the
next layer following a neighborhood based topology. The output layer
neurons are in turn, connected to the intermediate layer following
similar topology, thus forming a counter-propagating architecture
with the intermediate layer. The novelty of the proposed architecture
is that the assignment/updating of the inter-layer connection weights
are done using the relative fuzzy membership values at the constituent
neurons in the different network layers. Another interesting feature
of the network lies in the fact that the processing capabilities of
the intermediate and the output layer neurons are guided by a beta
activation function, which uses image context sensitive adaptive
thresholding arising out of the fuzzy cardinality estimates of the
different network neighborhood fuzzy subsets, rather than resorting to
fixed and single point thresholding. An application of the proposed
architecture for object extraction is demonstrated using a synthetic
and a real life image. The extraction efficiency of the proposed
network architecture is evaluated by a proposed system transfer index
characteristic of the network.
Abstract: Multimedia security is an incredibly significant area of concern. The paper aims to discuss a robust image watermarking scheme, which can withstand geometric attacks. The source image is initially moment normalized in order to make it withstand geometric attacks. The moment normalized image is wavelet transformed. The first level wavelet transformed image is segmented into blocks if size 8x8. The product of mean and standard and standard deviation of each block is computed. The second level wavelet transformed image is divided into 8x8 blocks. The product of block mean and the standard deviation are computed. The difference between products in the two levels forms the watermark. The watermark is inserted by modulating the coefficients of the mid frequencies. The modulated image is inverse wavelet transformed and inverse moment normalized to generate the watermarked image. The watermarked image is now ready for transmission. The proposed scheme can be used to validate identification cards and financial instruments. The performance of this scheme has been evaluated using a set of parameters. Experimental results show the effectiveness of this scheme.
Abstract: An accurate optimal design of laminated composite
structures may present considerable difficulties due to the complexity
and multi-modality of the functional design space. The Big Bang
– Big Crunch (BB-BC) optimization method is a relatively new
technique and has already proved to be a valuable tool for structural
optimization. In the present study the exceptional efficiency of the
method is demonstrated by an example of the lay-up optimization
of multilayered anisotropic cylinders based on a three-dimensional
elasticity solution. It is shown that, due to its simplicity and speed,
the BB-BC is much more efficient for this class of problems when
compared to the genetic algorithms.
Abstract: The aim of our research was to evaluate the effects of
physical exercise on lipid profile and anthropometric characteristics
in young subjects, diagnosed with metabolic syndrome (MS). The
study has been developed during 28 weeks on 20 young obese
patients which have undertaken an intermittent submaximal exercise
program. After 28 weeks of physical activity, the results show
significant effects on anthropometric characteristics and serum lipid
profile of research subjects. Additionally, the results of this study
confirms the major correlation between the variations of
intraabdominal adiposity, determined ultrasonographycally,
and the changes of serum lipid concentrations, a better
correlation than it is used abdominal circumference or body
weight index.
Abstract: This study deals with a multi-criteria optimization
problem which has been transformed into a single objective
optimization problem using Response Surface Methodology (RSM),
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Grey Relational Analyses
(GRA) approach. Grey-RSM and Grey-ANN are hybrid techniques
which can be used for solving multi-criteria optimization problem.
There have been two main purposes of this research as follows.
1. To determine optimum and robust fiber dyeing process
conditions by using RSM and ANN based on GRA,
2. To obtain the best suitable model by comparing models
developed by different methodologies.
The design variables for fiber dyeing process in textile are
temperature, time, softener, anti-static, material quantity, pH,
retarder, and dispergator. The quality characteristics to be evaluated
are nominal color consistency of fiber, maximum strength of fiber,
minimum color of dyeing solution. GRA-RSM with exact level
value, GRA-RSM with interval level value and GRA-ANN models
were compared based on GRA output value and MSE (Mean Square
Error) performance measurement of outputs with each other. As a
result, GRA-ANN with interval value model seems to be suitable
reducing the variation of dyeing process for GRA output value of the
model.
Abstract: As German companies roll out their standardized
production systems to offshore manufacturing plants, they face the
challenge of implementing them in different cultural environments.
Studies show that the local adaptation is one of the key factors for a
successful implementation. Thus the question arises of where the line
between standardization and adaptation can be drawn. To answer
this question the influence of culture on production systems is
analysed in this paper. The culturally contingent components of
production systems are identified. Also the contingency factors are
classified according to their impact on the necessary adaptation
changes and implementation effort. Culturally specific decision
making, coordination, communication and motivation patterns
require one-time changes in organizational and process design. The
attitude towards rules requires more intense coaching and controlling.
Lastly a framework is developed to depict standardization and
adaption needs when transplanting production systems into different
cultural environments.
Abstract: It has been proven that early establishment of
microbial flora in digestive tract of ruminants, has a beneficial effect
on their health condition and productivity. A probiotic compound,
made from five bacteria isolated from adult bovine cattle, was dosed
to 15 Holstein newborn calves in order to measure its capacity of
improving body weight gain and reduce diarrhea incidence. The test
was performed in the municipality of Cajicá (Colombia), at 2580
m.a.s.l., throughout rainy season, with environmental temperature
that oscillated between 4 to 25 °C. Five calves were allotted to
control (no addition of probiotic). Treatments 1, and 2 (5 calves per
group) received 10 ml Probiotic mix 1 and 2, respectively. Probiotic
mixes 1 and 2 where similar in microbial composition but different in
production process. Probiotics were added to the morning milk and
dosed on a daily basis by a month and then on a weekly basis for
three additional months. Diarrhea incidence was measured by
observance of number of animals affected in each group; each animal
was weighed up on a daily basis for obtaining weight gain and rumen
fluid samples were extracted with oro-esophageal catheter for
determining level of fiber and grain consumption.
Abstract: Since IEC61850 substation communication standard represents the trend to develop new generations of Substation Automation System (SAS), many IED manufacturers pursue this technique and apply for KEMA. In order to put on the market to meet customer demand as fast as possible, manufacturers often apply their products only for basic environment standard certification but claim to conform to IEC61850 certification. Since verification institutes generally perform verification tests only on specific IEDs of the manufacturers, the interoperability between all certified IEDs cannot be guaranteed. Therefore the interoperability between IEDs from different manufacturers needs to be tested. Based upon the above reasons, this study applies the definitions of the information models, communication service, GOOSE functionality and Substation Configuration Language (SCL) of the IEC61850 to build the concept of communication protocols, and build the test environment. The procedures of the test of the data collection and exchange of the P2P communication mode and Client / Server communication mode in IEC61850 are outlined as follows. First, test the IED GOOSE messages communication capability from different manufacturers. Second, collect IED data from each IED with SCADA system and use HMI to display the SCADA platform. Finally, problems generally encountered in the test procedure are summarized.
Abstract: Music segmentation is a key issue in music information
retrieval (MIR) as it provides an insight into the
internal structure of a composition. Structural information about
a composition can improve several tasks related to MIR such
as searching and browsing large music collections, visualizing
musical structure, lyric alignment, and music summarization.
The authors of this paper present the MTSSM framework, a twolayer
framework for the multi-track segmentation of symbolic
music. The strength of this framework lies in the combination of
existing methods for local track segmentation and the application
of global structure information spanning via multiple tracks.
The first layer of the MTSSM uses various string matching
techniques to detect the best candidate segmentations for each
track of a multi-track composition independently. The second
layer combines all single track results and determines the best
segmentation for each track in respect to the global structure of
the composition.
Abstract: Thermal conductivity is an important characteristic of
a nanofluid in laminar flow heat transfer. This paper presents an
improved model for the prediction of the effective thermal
conductivity of nanofluids based on dimensionless groups. The
model expresses the thermal conductivity of a nanofluid as a function
of the thermal conductivity of the solid and liquid, their volume
fractions and particle size. The proposed model includes a parameter
which accounts for the interfacial shell, brownian motion, and
aggregation of particle. The validation of the model is verified by
applying the results obtained by the experiments of Tio2-water and
Al2o3-water nanofluids.
Abstract: Fossil fuel-firing power plants dominate electric
power generation in Taiwan, which are also the major contributor to
Green House gases (GHG). CO2 is the most important greenhouse
gas that cause global warming. This paper penetrates the relationship
between carbon trading for GHG reduction and power generation
expansion planning (GEP) problem for the electrical utility. The
Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Algorithm is presented to deal
with the generation expansion planning strategy of the utility with
independent power providers (IPPs). The utility has to take both the
IPPs- participation and environment impact into account when a new
generation unit is considering expanded from view of supply side.
Abstract: A two-parameter fatigue model explicitly accounting for the cyclic as well as the mean stress was used to fit static and fatigue data available in literature concerning carbon fiber reinforced composite laminates subjected tension-tension fatigue. The model confirms the strength–life equal rank assumption and predicts reasonably the probability of failure under cyclic loading. The model parameters were found by best fitting procedures and required a minimum of experimental tests.
Abstract: The springs located in urban areas are the outpouring
of surface water, which can serve as water supply, effluent receptors
and important local macro-drainage elements. With unplanned
occupation, non-compliance with environmental legislation and the
importance of these water bodies, it is vital to analyze the springs
within urban areas, considering the Brazilian forest code. This paper
submits an analysis and discussion methodology proposal of
environmental compliance functions of urban springs, by means of
G.I.S. - Geographic Information System analysis - and in situ
analysis. The case study included two springs which exhibit a history
of occupation along its length, with different degrees of impact. The
proposed method is effective and easy to apply, representing a
powerful tool for analyzing the environmental conditions of springs
in urban areas.
Abstract: This paper describes about dynamic reconfiguration to
miniaturize arithmetic circuits in general-purpose processor. Dynamic
reconfiguration is a technique to realize required functions by
changing hardware construction during operation. The proposed
arithmetic circuit performs floating-point arithmetic which is
frequently used in science and technology. The data format is
floating-point based on IEEE754. The proposed circuit is designed
using VHDL, and verified the correct operation by simulations and
experiments.
Abstract: In this study, a vibration analysis was carried out of
symmetric angle-ply laminated composite plates with and without
square hole when subjected to compressive loads, numerically. A
buckling analysis is also performed to determine the buckling load of
laminated plates. For each fibre orientation, the compression load is
taken equal to 50% of the corresponding buckling load. In the
analysis, finite element method (FEM) was applied to perform
parametric studies, the effects of degree of orthotropy and stacking
sequence upon the fundamental frequencies and buckling loads are
discussed. The results show that the presence of a constant
compressive load tends to reduce uniformly the natural frequencies
for materials which have a low degree of orthotropy. However, this
reduction becomes non-uniform for materials with a higher degree of
orthotropy.
Abstract: In this paper we present a Feed-Foward Neural
Networks Autoregressive (FFNN-AR) model with genetic algorithms
training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product
growth of six countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted
regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the
initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum
weights from input-hidden layer of the training process. The
forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive
model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting
results outperform significant those of autoregressive model.
Moreover this technique can be used in Autoregressive-Moving
Average models, with and without exogenous inputs, as also the
training process with genetics algorithms optimization can be
replaced by the error back-propagation algorithm.