The Use of S Curves in Technology Forecasting and its Application On 3D TV Technology
S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies.
However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead
to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology
forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be
discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other
forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in
technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages,
disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on
3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the
results will be discussed.
[1] Bengisu, M., R. Nekhili, "Forecasting Emerging Technologies with the
Aid of Science and Technology Databases", Technological Forecasting
and Social Change, vol. 73 (7), pp. 835-844, 2006.
[2] Chen Y. H., C. Y. Chen, S.C. Lee,. "Technology forecasting and Patent
Strategy of Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell", International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, vol. 36, pp. 6957-6969, 2011.
[3] Daim, T. U., G. Rueda, H. Martin, G. Pisek, "Forecasting EmergingTechnologies: Use of Bibliometrics and Patent Analysis", Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 73, pp. 981-1012, 2006.
[4] Dubaric, E., D. Giaznnocarro, R. Bengtsson, T. Ackermann, "Patent
Data as indicator of Wind Power Technology Development", World
Patent Information, vol. 22, pp. 144-149, 2011.
[5] Ernst. H., "The Use of Patent Data for Technological Forecasting: The
Diffusion of CNC-Technology in the Machine Tool Industry", Small
Business Economics, vol. 9, pp. 361-381, 1997.
[6] Foster, R. N.; Innovation: The Attacker-s Advantage. Summit Books:
New York, 1986.
[7] Franses, P. H., "A Method to Select Between Gompertz and Logistic
Trend Curves", Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 46, pp. 45-
49, 1994.
[8] Frenz, M., G. Ietto-Gillies, "The impact on innovation performance of
different sources of knowledge: Evidence from the UK community
innovation Survey",Research Policy ,vol. 38(7), pp. 1125-1135, 2009.
[9] Halal, W. E., M. D. Kull, A. Leffman, "A Continuous Assessment of the
Technology Revolution", Elsevier Science Inc, Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 59, pp. 89-110, 1998.
[10] http://worldwide.espacenet.com/quickSearch?locale=en_EP, retrieved
12/15/2010.
[11] http://www.3dtvguide.org/, retrieved 12/121/2010
[12] Jantsch E., "Technological Forecasting in Perspective",OECD: Paris,
1967.
[13] Järvenpää H. M., S. J. Mäkinen, M. Seppänen, "Patent and publishing
activity sequence over a technology's life cycle", Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 78, pp. 283-293, 2011.
[14] Kucharavy, D., R. De Guio, "Application of S-shaped curves", Procedia
Engineering, vol. 9, pp. 559-572, 2011.
[15] Levery, R.R., D. Han, "Choosing a technological forecasting method",
Institute of Industrial Engineers, vol. 37(1), pp. 14-18, Jan./Feb.1995.
[16] Meredith J. R., S. J. Mantel; Project Management: A Managerial
Approach. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 1995.
[17] Meyer, P S., "A Premier on Logistic Growth and Substitutions: The
Mathematics of the Loglet Lab Software", Technological Forecasting
and Social Change, Vol. 61(3), pp. 247-271, 1999.
[18] Ryu, J., S.C. Byeon, "Technology Level Evaluation Methodology Based
on the Technology Growth Curve", Technological Forecasting & Social
Change, vol. 78, pp. 1049-1059, 2011.
[19] Vanston, J., "Better forecasts, better plans, better results: Enhance the
validity and credibility of your forecasts by structuring them in
accordance with the five different ways people view the future",
Industrial Research Institute, Inc., Retrieved 12/15/2011 World Wide
Web, http://www.tfi.com/pubs/better-forecasts.pdf
[20] Yang, J., "Knowledge integration and innovation: Securing new product
advantage in high technology industry", The Journal of High
Technology Management Research, vol. 16(1), pp. 121-135, 2005.
[1] Bengisu, M., R. Nekhili, "Forecasting Emerging Technologies with the
Aid of Science and Technology Databases", Technological Forecasting
and Social Change, vol. 73 (7), pp. 835-844, 2006.
[2] Chen Y. H., C. Y. Chen, S.C. Lee,. "Technology forecasting and Patent
Strategy of Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell", International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, vol. 36, pp. 6957-6969, 2011.
[3] Daim, T. U., G. Rueda, H. Martin, G. Pisek, "Forecasting EmergingTechnologies: Use of Bibliometrics and Patent Analysis", Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 73, pp. 981-1012, 2006.
[4] Dubaric, E., D. Giaznnocarro, R. Bengtsson, T. Ackermann, "Patent
Data as indicator of Wind Power Technology Development", World
Patent Information, vol. 22, pp. 144-149, 2011.
[5] Ernst. H., "The Use of Patent Data for Technological Forecasting: The
Diffusion of CNC-Technology in the Machine Tool Industry", Small
Business Economics, vol. 9, pp. 361-381, 1997.
[6] Foster, R. N.; Innovation: The Attacker-s Advantage. Summit Books:
New York, 1986.
[7] Franses, P. H., "A Method to Select Between Gompertz and Logistic
Trend Curves", Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 46, pp. 45-
49, 1994.
[8] Frenz, M., G. Ietto-Gillies, "The impact on innovation performance of
different sources of knowledge: Evidence from the UK community
innovation Survey",Research Policy ,vol. 38(7), pp. 1125-1135, 2009.
[9] Halal, W. E., M. D. Kull, A. Leffman, "A Continuous Assessment of the
Technology Revolution", Elsevier Science Inc, Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 59, pp. 89-110, 1998.
[10] http://worldwide.espacenet.com/quickSearch?locale=en_EP, retrieved
12/15/2010.
[11] http://www.3dtvguide.org/, retrieved 12/121/2010
[12] Jantsch E., "Technological Forecasting in Perspective",OECD: Paris,
1967.
[13] Järvenpää H. M., S. J. Mäkinen, M. Seppänen, "Patent and publishing
activity sequence over a technology's life cycle", Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 78, pp. 283-293, 2011.
[14] Kucharavy, D., R. De Guio, "Application of S-shaped curves", Procedia
Engineering, vol. 9, pp. 559-572, 2011.
[15] Levery, R.R., D. Han, "Choosing a technological forecasting method",
Institute of Industrial Engineers, vol. 37(1), pp. 14-18, Jan./Feb.1995.
[16] Meredith J. R., S. J. Mantel; Project Management: A Managerial
Approach. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 1995.
[17] Meyer, P S., "A Premier on Logistic Growth and Substitutions: The
Mathematics of the Loglet Lab Software", Technological Forecasting
and Social Change, Vol. 61(3), pp. 247-271, 1999.
[18] Ryu, J., S.C. Byeon, "Technology Level Evaluation Methodology Based
on the Technology Growth Curve", Technological Forecasting & Social
Change, vol. 78, pp. 1049-1059, 2011.
[19] Vanston, J., "Better forecasts, better plans, better results: Enhance the
validity and credibility of your forecasts by structuring them in
accordance with the five different ways people view the future",
Industrial Research Institute, Inc., Retrieved 12/15/2011 World Wide
Web, http://www.tfi.com/pubs/better-forecasts.pdf
[20] Yang, J., "Knowledge integration and innovation: Securing new product
advantage in high technology industry", The Journal of High
Technology Management Research, vol. 16(1), pp. 121-135, 2005.
@article{"International Journal of Mechanical, Industrial and Aerospace Sciences:62193", author = "Gizem Intepe and Tufan Koc", title = "The Use of S Curves in Technology Forecasting and its Application On 3D TV Technology", abstract = "S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies.
However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead
to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology
forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be
discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other
forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in
technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages,
disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on
3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the
results will be discussed.", keywords = "Patent analysis, Technological forecasting. S curves, 3D TV", volume = "6", number = "11", pages = "2557-5", }
