Abstract: Contractor selection in Saudi Arabia is very important due to the large construction boom and the contractor role to get over construction risks. The need for investigating contractor selection is due to the following reasons; large number of defaulted or failed projects (18%), large number of disputes attributed to contractor during the project execution stage (almost twofold), the extension of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) into construction industry, and finally the few number of researches. The selection strategy is not perfect and considered as the reason behind irresponsible contractors. As a response, this research was conducted to review the contractor selection strategies as an integral part of a long advanced research to develop a good selection model. Many techniques can be used to form a selection strategy; multi criteria for optimizing decision, prequalification to discover contractor-s responsibility, bidding process for competition, third party guarantee to enhance the selection, and fuzzy techniques for ambiguities and incomplete information.
Abstract: This paper suggests a new Affine Projection (AP) algorithm with variable data-reuse factor using the condition number as a decision factor. To reduce computational burden, we adopt a recently reported technique which estimates the condition number of an input data matrix. Several simulations show that the new algorithm has better performance than that of the conventional AP algorithm.
Abstract: The frontal area in the brain is known to be involved in
behavioral judgement. Because a Kanji character can be discriminated
visually and linguistically from other characters, in Kanji character
discrimination, we hypothesized that frontal event-related potential
(ERP) waveforms reflect two discrimination processes in separate
time periods: one based on visual analysis and the other based
on lexcical access. To examine this hypothesis, we recorded ERPs
while performing a Kanji lexical decision task. In this task, either a
known Kanji character, an unknown Kanji character or a symbol was
presented and the subject had to report if the presented character was
a known Kanji character for the subject or not. The same response
was required for unknown Kanji trials and symbol trials. As a preprocessing
of signals, we examined the performance of a method
using independent component analysis for artifact rejection and found
it was effective. Therefore we used it. In the ERP results, there
were two time periods in which the frontal ERP wavefoms were
significantly different betweeen the unknown Kanji trials and the
symbol trials: around 170ms and around 300ms after stimulus onset.
This result supported our hypothesis. In addition, the result suggests
that Kanji character lexical access may be fully completed by around
260ms after stimulus onset.
Abstract: Text Mining is around applying knowledge discovery
techniques to unstructured text is termed knowledge discovery in text
(KDT), or Text data mining or Text Mining. In decision tree
approach is most useful in classification problem. With this
technique, tree is constructed to model the classification process.
There are two basic steps in the technique: building the tree and
applying the tree to the database. This paper describes a proposed
C5.0 classifier that performs rulesets, cross validation and boosting
for original C5.0 in order to reduce the optimization of error ratio.
The feasibility and the benefits of the proposed approach are
demonstrated by means of medial data set like hypothyroid. It is
shown that, the performance of a classifier on the training cases from
which it was constructed gives a poor estimate by sampling or using a
separate test file, either way, the classifier is evaluated on cases that
were not used to build and evaluate the classifier are both are large. If
the cases in hypothyroid.data and hypothyroid.test were to be
shuffled and divided into a new 2772 case training set and a 1000
case test set, C5.0 might construct a different classifier with a lower
or higher error rate on the test cases. An important feature of see5 is
its ability to classifiers called rulesets. The ruleset has an error rate
0.5 % on the test cases. The standard errors of the means provide an
estimate of the variability of results. One way to get a more reliable
estimate of predictive is by f-fold –cross- validation. The error rate of
a classifier produced from all the cases is estimated as the ratio of the
total number of errors on the hold-out cases to the total number of
cases. The Boost option with x trials instructs See5 to construct up to
x classifiers in this manner. Trials over numerous datasets, large and
small, show that on average 10-classifier boosting reduces the error
rate for test cases by about 25%.
Abstract: In this paper, the potential use of an exponential
hidden Markov model to model a hidden pavement deterioration
process, i.e. one that is not directly measurable, is investigated. It is
assumed that the evolution of the physical condition, which is the
hidden process, and the evolution of the values of pavement distress
indicators, can be adequately described using discrete condition states
and modeled as a Markov processes. It is also assumed that condition
data can be collected by visual inspections over time and represented
continuously using an exponential distribution. The advantage of
using such a model in decision making process is illustrated through
an empirical study using real world data.
Abstract: Improving performance measures in the construction
processes has been a major concern for managers and decision
makers in the industry. They seek for ways to recognize the key
factors which have the largest effect on the process. Identifying such
factors can guide them to focus on the right parts of the process in
order to gain the best possible result. In the present study design of
experiment (DOE) has been applied to a computer simulation model
of brick laying process to determine significant factors while
productivity has been chosen as the response of the experiment. To
this end, four controllable factors and their interaction have been
experimented and the best factor level has been calculated for each
one. The results indicate that three factors, namely, labor of brick,
labor of mortar and inter arrival time of mortar along with interaction
of labor of brick and labor of mortar are significant.
Abstract: Rotation or tilt present in an image capture by digital
means can be detected and corrected using Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) for application with a Face Recognition System (FRS). Principal
Component Analysis (PCA) features of faces at different angles
are used to train an ANN which detects the rotation for an input image
and corrected using a set of operations implemented using another
system based on ANN. The work also deals with the recognition
of human faces with features from the foreheads, eyes, nose and
mouths as decision support entities of the system configured using
a Generalized Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network (GFFANN).
These features are combined to provide a reinforced decision for
verification of a person-s identity despite illumination variations. The
complete system performing facial image rotation detection, correction
and recognition using re-enforced decision support provides a
success rate in the higher 90s.
Abstract: Recently research on human wayfinding has focused
mainly on mental representations rather than processes of
wayfinding. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the
rationality behind applying multi-agent simulation paradigm to the
modeling of rescuer team wayfinding in order to develop
computational theory of perceptual wayfinding in crisis situations
using image schemata and affordances, which explains how people
find a specific destination in an unfamiliar building such as a
hospital. The hypothesis of this paper is that successful navigation is
possible if the agents are able to make the correct decision through
well-defined cues in critical cases, so the design of the building
signage is evaluated through the multi-agent-based simulation. In
addition, a special case of wayfinding in a building, finding one-s
way through three hospitals, is used to demonstrate the model.
Thereby, total rescue time for rescue operation during building fire is
computed. This paper discuses the computed rescue time for various
signage localization and provides experimental result for
optimization of building signage design. Therefore the most
appropriate signage design resulted in the shortest total rescue time in
various situations.
Abstract: Effective employee selection is a critical component
of a successful organization. Many important criteria for personnel
selection such as decision-making ability, adaptability, ambition, and
self-organization are naturally vague and imprecise to evaluate. The
rough sets theory (RST) as a new mathematical approach to
vagueness and uncertainty is a very well suited tool to deal with
qualitative data and various decision problems. This paper provides
conceptual, descriptive, and simulation results, concentrating chiefly
on human resources and personnel selection factors. The current
research derives certain decision rules which are able to facilitate
personnel selection and identifies several significant features based
on an empirical study conducted in an IT company in Iran.
Abstract: The values of managers and employees in organizations are phenomena that have captured the interest of researchers at large. Despite this attention, there continues to be a lack of agreement on what values are and how they influence individuals, or how they are constituted in individuals- mind. In this article content-based approach is presented as alternative reference frame for exploring values. In content-based approach human thinking in different contexts is set at the focal point. Differences in valuations can be explained through the information contents of mental representations. In addition to the information contents, attention is devoted to those cognitive processes through which mental representations of values are constructed. Such informational contents are in decisive role for understanding human behavior. By applying content-based analysis to an examination of values as mental representations, it is possible to reach a deeper to the motivational foundation of behaviors, such as decision making in organizational procedures, through understanding the structure and meanings of specific values at play.
Abstract: In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded
to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a
competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic
decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a
satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation
model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price
evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering
software, considers two main factors affecting the
bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the
project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate
projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk
analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price
with associated certainty level in a scientific method.
Abstract: Need for an appropriate system of evaluating students-
educational developments is a key problem to achieve the predefined
educational goals. Intensity of the related papers in the last years; that
tries to proof or disproof the necessity and adequacy of the students
assessment; is the corroborator of this matter. Some of these studies
tried to increase the precision of determining question weights in
scientific examinations. But in all of them there has been an attempt
to adjust the initial question weights while the accuracy and precision
of those initial question weights are still under question. Thus In
order to increase the precision of the assessment process of students-
educational development, the present study tries to propose a new
method for determining the initial question weights by considering
the factors of questions like: difficulty, importance and complexity;
and implementing a combined method of PROMETHEE and fuzzy
analytic network process using a data mining approach to improve
the model-s inputs. The result of the implemented case study proves
the development of performance and precision of the proposed
model.
Abstract: Globalization, supported by information and
communication technologies, changes the rules of competitiveness
and increases the significance of information, knowledge and
network cooperation. In line with this trend, the need for efficient
trust-building tools has emerged. The absence of trust building
mechanisms and strategies was identified within several studies.
Through trust development, participation on e-business network and
usage of network services will increase and provide to SMEs new
economic benefits. This work is focused on effective trust building
strategies development for electronic business network platforms.
Based on trust building mechanism identification, the questionnairebased
analysis of its significance and minimum level of requirements
was conducted. In the paper, we are confirming the trust dependency
on e-Skills which play crucial role in higher level of trust into the
more sophisticated and complex trust building ICT solutions.
Abstract: This paper focuses on the data-driven generation
of fuzzy IF...THEN rules. The resulted fuzzy rule base can be
applied to build a classifier, a model used for prediction, or
it can be applied to form a decision support system. Among
the wide range of possible approaches, the decision tree and
the association rule based algorithms are overviewed, and two
new approaches are presented based on the a priori fuzzy
clustering based partitioning of the continuous input variables.
An application study is also presented, where the developed
methods are tested on the well known Wisconsin Breast Cancer
classification problem.
Abstract: The contribution deals with current or potential approaches to the modeling and optimization of tactical activities. This issue takes on importance in recent times, particularly with the increasing trend of digitized battlefield, the development of C4ISR systems and intention to streamline the command and control process at the lowest levels of command. From fundamental and philosophically point of view, this new approaches seek to significantly upgrade and enhance the decision-making process of the tactical commanders.
Abstract: Environmental decision making, particularly about
hazardous waste management, is inherently exposed to a high
potential conflict, principally because of the trade-off between sociopolitical,
environmental, health and economic factors. The need to
plan complex contexts has led to an increasing request for decision
analytic techniques as support for the decision process. In this work,
alternative systems of asbestos-containing waste management
(ACW) in Puglia (Southern Italy) were explored by a multi-criteria
decision analysis. In particular, through Analytic Hierarchy Process
five alternatives management have been compared and ranked
according to their performance and efficiency, taking into account
environmental, health and socio-economic aspects. A separated
valuation has been performed for different temporal scale. For short
period results showed a narrow deviation between the disposal
alternatives “mono-material landfill in public quarry" and “dedicate
cells in existing landfill", with the best performance of the first one.
While for long period “treatment plant to eliminate hazard from
asbestos-containing waste" was prevalent, although high energy
demand required to achieve the change of crystalline structure. A
comparison with results from a participative approach in valuation
process might be considered as future development of method
application to ACW management.
Abstract: This article combines two techniques: data
envelopment analysis (DEA) and Factor analysis (FA) to data
reduction in decision making units (DMU). Data envelopment
analysis (DEA), a popular linear programming technique is useful to
rate comparatively operational efficiency of decision making units
(DMU) based on their deterministic (not necessarily stochastic)
input–output data and factor analysis techniques, have been proposed
as data reduction and classification technique, which can be applied
in data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique for reduction input –
output data. Numerical results reveal that the new approach shows a
good consistency in ranking with DEA.
Abstract: Tehran, one of the heavily-populated capitals, is
severely suffering from increasing air pollution. To show a
documented trend of such pollutants during last years, plane tree
species (Platanus orientalis) were suited to be studied as indicators,
for the species have been planted throughout the city many years
ago. Two areas (Saadatabad and Narmak districts) allotting different
contents of crowed and highly-traffic routs but the same ecological
characteristics were selected. Twelve sample individuals were cored
twice perpendicularly in each area. Tree-rings of each core were
measured by a binocular microscope and separated annually for the
last 25 years. Two heavy metals including Cd and Pb accompanied
by a mineral element (Ca) were analyzed using Hatch method. Treerings
analysis of the two areas showed different groups in term of
physiologically ability as the growths were plunged during the last
10 years in Saadatabad district and showed a slight decrease in the
same period for another studying area. In direct contrast to
decreasing growth trend in Saadatabad, all three mentioned elements
increased sharply during last 25 years in the same area. When it came
to Narmak district, the trend was completely different with
Saadatabad. There were some fluctuations in absorbing trace
elements like tree-rings widths were, yet calcium showed an upward
trend all the last 25 years. The results of the study proved the
possibility of using tree species of each region to monitor its air
pollution trends of the past, hence to depict a pollution assessment of
a populated city for last years and then to make appropriate decisions
for the future as it is well-known what the trend is. On the other
hand, risen values of calcium (as the stress-indicator element)
accompanied by increased trace elements suggests non-sustainable
state of the trees.
Abstract: This paper was aimed to survey the level of awareness
of traditional grocery stores in Bangkok in these categories: location,
service quality, risk, shopping, worthwhile, shopping satisfaction, and
future shopping intention. The paper was also aimed to survey factors
influencing the decision to shop at traditional grocery stores in
Bangkok in the future. The findings revealed that consumers had a
high level of awareness of traditional grocery stores in Bangkok.
Consumers were aware that the price was higher and it was riskier to
buy goods and services at traditional grocery stores but they still had
a high level of preference to patronage traditional grocery stores. This
was due to the reasons that there was a high level of satisfaction from
the factors of the friendliness of the owner, the ability to negotiate the
price, the ability to buy on credit, free delivery, and the enjoyment to
meet with other customers in the same neighborhood.
Abstract: This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.