Abstract: In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded
to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a
competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic
decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a
satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation
model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price
evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering
software, considers two main factors affecting the
bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the
project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate
projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk
analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price
with associated certainty level in a scientific method.