Abstract: This paper deals with a portfolio selection problem
based on the possibility theory under the assumption that the returns
of assets are LR-type fuzzy numbers. A possibilistic portfolio model
with transaction costs is proposed, in which the possibilistic mean
value of the return is termed measure of investment return, and the
possibilistic variance of the return is termed measure of investment
risk. Due to considering transaction costs, the existing traditional
optimization algorithms usually fail to find the optimal solution
efficiently and heuristic algorithms can be the best method. Therefore,
a particle swarm optimization is designed to solve the corresponding
optimization problem. At last, a numerical example is given to
illustrate our proposed effective means and approaches.
Abstract: Earthquakes produce some of the most violent loading
situations that a structure can be subjected to and if a structure fails
under these loads then inevitably human life is put at risk. One of the
most common methods by which a structure fails under seismic
loading is at the connection of structural elements. The research
presented in this paper investigates the interlock systems as a novel
method for building structures. The main objective of this
experimental study wasto determine the dynamic characteristics and
the seismic behaviour of the proposed structures compared to
conventional structural systemsduring seismic motions. Results of
this study indicate that the interlock mechanism of the panels
influences the behaviour of lateral load-resisting systems of the
structures during earthquakes, contributing to better structural
flexibility and easier maintenance.
Abstract: This paper describes topology of business models in market ecosystem of the emerging electric mobility industry. The business model topology shows that firm-s participation in the ecosystem is associated with different requirements on resources and capabilities, and different levels of risk. Business model concept is used together with concepts of networked value creation and shows that firms can achieve higher levels of sustainable advantage by cooperation, not competition. Hybrid business models provide companies a viable alternative possibility for participation in the market ecosystem.
Abstract: Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified
as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in
Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in
Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and
demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session
with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension
expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between
these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System
Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how
demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by
using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension
expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of
pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and
policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.
Abstract: The distribution, enrichment, and accumulation of zinc
(Zn) in the sediments of Kaohsiung Ocean Disposal Site (KODS),
Taiwan were investigated. Sediment samples from two outer disposal
site stations and nine disposed stations in the KODS were collected per
quarterly in 2009 and characterized for Zn, aluminum, organic matter,
and grain size. Results showed that the mean Zn concentrations varied
from 48 mg/kg to 456 mg/kg. Results from the enrichment factor (EF)
and geo-accumulation index (Igeo) analyses imply that the sediments
collected from the KODS can be characterized between moderate and
moderately severe degree enrichment and between none and none to
medium accumulation of Zn, respectively. However, results of
potential ecological risk index indicate that the sediment has low
ecological potential risk. The EF, Igeo, and Zn concentrations at the
disposed stations were slightly higher than those at outer disposal site.
This indicated that the disposed area centers may be subjected to the
disposal impaction of harbor dredged sediments.
Abstract: A model is presented to find the optimal design of the
mixed renewable warranty policy for non-repairable Weibull life
products. The optimal design considers the conflict of interests
between the customer and the manufacturer: the customer interests
are longer full rebate coverage period and longer total warranty
coverage period, the manufacturer interests are lower warranty cost
and lower risk. The design factors are full rebate and total warranty
coverage periods. Results showed that mixed policy is better than full
rebate policy in terms of risk and total warranty coverage period in all
of the three bathtub regions. In addition, results showed that linear
policy is better than mixed policy in infant mortality and constant
failure regions while the mixed policy is better than linear policy in
ageing region of the model. Furthermore, the results showed that
using burn-in period for infant mortality products reduces warranty
cost and risk.
Abstract: Brain ArterioVenous Malformation (BAVM) is an abnormal tangle of brain blood vessels where arteries shunt directly into veins with no intervening capillary bed which causes high pressure and hemorrhage risk. The success of treatment by embolization in interventional neuroradiology is highly dependent on the accuracy of the vessels visualization. In this paper the performance of clustering techniques on vessel segmentation from 3- D rotational angiography (3DRA) images is investigated and a new technique of segmentation is proposed. This method consists in: preprocessing step of image enhancement, then K-Means (KM), Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) and Expectation Maximization (EM) clustering are used to separate vessel pixels from background and artery pixels from vein pixels when possible. A post processing step of removing false-alarm components is applied before constructing a three-dimensional volume of the vessels. The proposed method was tested on six datasets along with a medical assessment of an expert. Obtained results showed encouraging segmentations.
Abstract: Commercial nanocomposite food packaging type nano-silver containers were characterised using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX). The presence of nanoparticles consistent with the incorporation of 1% nano-silver (Ag) and 0.1% titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanoparticle into polymeric materials formed into food containers was confirmed. Both nanomaterials used in this type of packaging appear to be embedded in a layered configuration within the bulk polymer. The dimensions of the incorporated nanoparticles were investigated using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and determined by calculation using the Scherrer Formula; these were consistent with Ag and TiO2 nanoparticles in the size range 20-70nm both were spherical shape nanoparticles. Antimicrobial assessment of the nanocomposite container has also been performed and the results confirm the antimicrobial activity of Ag and TiO2 nanoparticles in food packaging containers. Migration assessments were performed in a wide range of food matrices to determine the migration of nanoparticles from the packages. The analysis was based upon the relevant European safety Directives and involved the application of inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to identify the range of migration risk. The data pertain to insignificance levels of migration of Ag and TiO2 nanoparticles into the selected food matrices.
Abstract: Planning community has been long discussing emerging paradigms within the planning theory in the face of the changing conditions of the world order. The paradigm shift concept was introduced by Thomas Kuhn, in 1960, who claimed the necessity of shifting within scientific knowledge boundaries; and following him in 1970 Imre Loktas also gave priority to the emergence of multi-paradigm societies [24]. Multi-paradigm is changing our predetermined lifeworld through uncertainties. Those uncertainties are reflected in two sides, the first one is uncertainty as a concept of possibility and creativity in public sphere and the second one is uncertainty as a risk. Therefore, it is necessary to apply a resilience planning approach to be more dynamic in controlling uncertainties which have the potential to transfigure present time and space definitions. In this way, stability of system can be achieved. Uncertainty is not only an outcome of worldwide changes but also a place-specific issue, i.e. it changes from continent to continent, a country to country; a region to region. Therefore, applying strategic spatial planning with respect to resilience principle contributes to: control, grasp and internalize uncertainties through place-specific strategies. In today-s fast changing world, planning system should follow strategic spatial projects to control multi-paradigm societies with adaptability capacities. Here, we have selected two alternatives to demonstrate; these are; 1.Tehran (Iran) from the Middle East 2.Bath (United Kingdom) from Europe. The study elaborates uncertainties and particularities in their strategic spatial planning processes in a comparative manner. Through the comparison, the study aims at assessing place-specific priorities in strategic planning. The approach is to a two-way stream, where the case cities from the extreme end of the spectrum can learn from each other. The structure of this paper is to firstly compare semi-periphery (Tehran) and coreperiphery (Bath) cities, with the focus to reveal how they equip to face with uncertainties according to their geographical locations and local particularities. Secondly, the key message to address is “Each locality requires its own strategic planning approach to be resilient.--
Abstract: It is believed that DNA damaging toxic metabolites contributes to the development of different pathological conditions. To prevent harmful influence of toxic agents, cells developed number of protecting mechanisms, such as enzymatic reaction of detoxification of reactive metabolites and repair of DNA damage. The aim of the study was to examine the association between polymorphism of GSTT1/GSTM1 and XRCC1/3 genes and coronary artery disease (CAD) incidence. To examine a polymorphism of these genes in CAD susceptibility in patients and controls, PCR based genotyping assay was performed. For GST genes, frequency of GSTM1 null genotype among CAD affected group was significantly increased than in control group (P0.1). We found that neither XRCC1 Arg399Gln nor XRCC3 Thr241Met were associated with CAD risk. Obtained data suggests that GSTM1 null genotype carriers are more susceptible to CAD development.
Abstract: The p53 tumor suppressor gene plays two important
roles in genomic stability: blocking cell proliferation after DNA
damage until it has been repaired, and starting apoptosis if the
damage is too critical. Codon 72 exon4 polymorphism (Arg72Pro) of
the P53 gene has been implicated in cancer risk. Various studies have
been done to investigate the status of p53 at codon 72 for arginine
(Arg) and proline (Pro) alleles in different populations and also the
association of this codon 72 polymorphism with various tumors. Our
objective was to investigate the possible association between P53
Arg72Pro polymorphism and susceptibility to colorectal cancer
among Isfahan and Chaharmahal Va Bakhtiari (a part of south west
of Iran) population. We investigated the status of p53 at codon 72 for
Arg/Arg, Arg/Pro and Pro/Pro allele polymorphisms in blood
samples from 145 colorectal cancer patients and 140 controls by
Nested-PCR of p53 exon 4 and digestion with BstUI restriction
enzyme and the DNA fragments were then resolved by
electrophoresis in 2% agarose gel. The Pro allele was 279 bp, while
the Arg allele was restricted into two fragments of 160 and 119 bp.
Among the 145 colorectal cancer cases 49 cases (33.79%) were
homozygous for the Arg72 allele (Arg/Arg), 18 cases (12.41%) were
homozygous for the Pro72 allele (Pro/Pro) and 78 cases (53.8%)
found in heterozygous (Arg/Pro).
In conclusion, it can be said that p53Arg/Arg genotype may be
correlated with possible increased risk of this kind of cancers in south
west of Iran.
Abstract: This study examines the issue of recommendation
sources from the perspectives of gender and consumers- perceived
risk, and validates a model for the antecedents of consumer online
purchases. The method of obtaining quantitative data was that of the
instrument of a survey questionnaire. Data were collected via
questionnaires from 396 undergraduate students aged 18-24, and a
multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify causal
relationships. Empirical findings established the link between
recommendation sources (word-of-mouth, advertising, and
recommendation systems) and the likelihood of making online
purchases and demonstrated the role of gender and perceived risk as
moderators in this context. The results showed that the effects of
word-of-mouth on online purchase intentions were stronger than those
of advertising and recommendation systems. In addition, female
consumers have less experience with online purchases, so they may be
more likely than males to refer to recommendations during the
decision-making process. The findings of the study will help
marketers to address the recommendation factor which influences
consumers- intention to purchase and to improve firm performances to
meet consumer needs.
Abstract: The objective of this work is to present a expertise on
flooding hazard analysis and how to reduce the risk. The analysis
concerns the disaster induced by the flood on November 10/11, 2001
in the Bab El Oued district of the city of Algiers.The study begins by
an expertise of damages in related with the urban environment and
the history of the urban growth of the site. After this phase, the work
is focalized on the identification of the existing correlations between
the development of the town and its vulnerability. The final step
consists to elaborate the interpretations on the interactions between
the urban growth, the sewerage network and the vulnerability of the
urban system.In conclusion, several recommendations are formulated
permitting the mitigation of the risk in the future. The principal
recommendations concern the new urban operations and the existing
urbanized sites.
Abstract: Economic crime (i.e. corporate fraud) has a
significant impact on business. This study analyzes the fraud cases
reported by the Malaysian Securities Commission. Frauds involving
market manipulation and/or illegal share trading are the most
common types of fraud reported over the 6 years analyzed. The
highest number of frauds reported involved investment and fund
holding companies. Alarmingly the results indicate quite a high
number of frauds cases are committed by management. The higher
number of Chinese perpetrators may be due to fact that they are the
dominant group in Malaysian business. The result also shows that
more than half of companies involved with fraud are privately held
companies in the investment/fund/finance sector. The results of this
study highlight general characteristic of perpetrators (person and
company) that commit fraud which could help the regulators in their
monitoring and enforcement activities. To investors, this would help
in analyzing their business investment or portfolio risk.
Abstract: Operational risk has become one of the most discussed topics in the financial industry in the recent years. The reasons for this attention can be attributed to higher investments in information systems and technology, the increasing wave of mergers and acquisitions and emergence of new financial instruments. In addition, the New Basel Capital Accord (known as Basel II) demands a capital requirement for operational risk and further motivates financial institutions to more precisely measure and manage this type of risk. The aim of this paper is to shed light on main characteristics of operational risk management and common applied methods: scenario analysis, key risk indicators, risk control self assessment and loss distribution approach.
Abstract: Nowadays predicting political risk level of country
has become a critical issue for investors who intend to achieve
accurate information concerning stability of the business
environments. Since, most of the times investors are layman and
nonprofessional IT personnel; this paper aims to propose a
framework named GECR in order to help nonexpert persons to
discover political risk stability across time based on the political
news and events.
To achieve this goal, the Bayesian Networks approach was
utilized for 186 political news of Pakistan as sample dataset.
Bayesian Networks as an artificial intelligence approach has been
employed in presented framework, since this is a powerful technique
that can be applied to model uncertain domains. The results showed
that our framework along with Bayesian Networks as decision
support tool, predicted the political risk level with a high degree of
accuracy.
Abstract: In intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT)
treatment planning, beam angles are usually preselected on the basis of
experience and intuition. Therefore, getting an appropriate beam
configuration needs a very long time. Based on the present situation,
the paper puts forward beam orientation optimization using ant colony
optimization (ACO). We use ant colony optimization to select the
beam configurations, after getting the beam configuration using
Conjugate Gradient (CG) algorithm to optimize the intensity profiles.
Combining with the information of the effect of pencil beam, we can
get the global optimal solution accelerating. In order to verify the
feasibility of the presented method, a simulated and clinical case was
tested, compared with dose-volume histogram and isodose line
between target area and organ at risk. The results showed that the
effect was improved after optimizing beam configurations. The
optimization approach could make treatment planning meet clinical
requirements more efficiently, so it had extensive application
perspective.
Abstract: Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral
disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions,
especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and
including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or
chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease.
Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector
surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been
recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control
strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for
relative risk estimation is important as a good model will
subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of
this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based
initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called
Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest
applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model.
This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which
we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an
extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model.
Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and
maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a
better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The
Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the
problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain
regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and
there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in
adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many
researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the
risk.
Abstract: Over a million tonnes of cigarette butts (CBs) are produced worldwide annually. These CBs accumulate in the environment due to the poor biodegradability of the cellulose acetate filters and pose a serious environmental risk. This paper presents some of the results from a continuing study on recycling CBs into fired clay bricks. Properties including compressive strength, flexural strength, density, water absorption and thermal conductivity of fired clay bricks are reported and discussed. Furthermore, leaching of heavy metals from the manufactured clay bricks was tested. The results show that the density of fired bricks was reduced by about 8 – 30 %, depending on the percentage of CBs incorporated into the raw materials. The compressive strength of bricks tested was 12.57, 5.22 and 3.00 MPa for 2.5, 5.0 and 10 % CB content respectively. Water absorption and initial rate of absorption values increased as density, and hence porosity, of bricks decreased with increasing CB volume. The leaching test results revealed trace amounts of heavy metals.
Abstract: The paper presents dynamic programming based model as a planning tool for the maintenance of electric power systems. Every distribution component has an exponential age depending reliability function to model the fault risk. In the moment of time when the fault costs exceed the investment costs of the new component the reinvestment of the component should be made. However, in some cases the overhauling of the old component may be more economical than the reinvestment. The comparison between overhauling and reinvestment is made by optimisation process. The goal of the optimisation process is to find the cost minimising maintenance program for electric power distribution system.