Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to analyze climbers
involved in motivation and risk perception and analysis of the
predictive ability of the risk perception "mountaineering" involved in
motivation. This study used questionnaires, to have to climb the
3000m high mountain in Taiwan climbers object to carry out an
investigation in order to non-random sampling, a total of 231 valid
questionnaires were. After statistical analysis, the study found that: 1.
Climbers the highest climbers involved in motivation "to enjoy the
natural beauty of the fun. 2 climbers for climbers "risk perception" the
highest: the natural environment of risk. 3. Climbers “seeking
adventure stimulate", “competence achievement" motivation highly
predictive of risk perception. Based on these findings, this study not
only practices the recommendations of the outdoor leisure industry,
and also related research proposals for future researchers.
Abstract: This study was conducted using the data collected at the mouth of Jen-Gen River to investigate and analyze chromium (Cr) contained in the sediments, and to evaluate the accumulation of Cr and the degree of its potential risk. The results show that samples collected at all monitoring stations near the mouth of Jen-Gen River contain 92–567 mg/kg of Cr with average of 366±166 mg/kg. The spatial distribution of Cr reveals that the Cr concentration is relatively high in the river mouth region, and gradually diminishes toward the harbor region. This indicates that upstream industrial and municipal wastewater discharges along the river bank are major sources of pollution. The accumulation factor and potential ecological risk index indicate that the sedimentation at Jen-Gen River mouth has the most serious degree of Cr accumulation and the highest ecological potential risk.
Abstract: The one of most important objects in implementation
of damage analysis observations is manner of dam break wave
propagation. In this paper velocity and wave height due dam break in
with and without tailwater states for appointment hazardous lands
and flood radius are investigate. In order to modeling above
phenomenon finite volume method of Roe type for solving shallow
water equations is used. Results indicated that in the dry bed state
risk radius due to dam break is too high. While in the wet bed risk
radius has a less wide. Therefore in the first state constructions and
storage facilities are encountered with destruction risk. Further
velocity due to dam break in the second state is more comparing to
the first state. Hence erosion and scour the river bed in the dry bed is
too more compare to the wet bed.
Abstract: This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.
Abstract: The Malaysia Highway Authority (MHA) was
established by the Government in 1980 for the purpose of designing,
constructing and maintaining toll highways in Malaysia that include
the North-South Expressway and the Penang Bridge, which were
procured using the publicly-funded traditional procurement. However
following a recession in the mid 80-s, the operations of these tolledhighways
had been privatized to ensure that their operational services
continue through private financing as a result of long-term
concession agreement concurred between the Malaysian Government
and private operators. The change in the contract strategy for
highway projects in Malaysia would have a great tendency to dictate
a significant risk exposure towards the key parties involved,
particularly the Malaysian Government as project principal, unless
operational risks are clearly identified and managed via appropriate
mitigation measures prior to a contract signing.
This research identifies potential operational risks that have a
possibility to occur in highway projects in Malaysia from the
perspective of public sector clients. Since this research focuses on the
operational risks for highway projects in Malaysia, the initial results
acquired from literature review on the operational risks of highway
projects in some Asian countries are then justified by a number of
key individuals from the MHA through interviews. As a result,
among key operational risks that have possibility to occur in the
highway projects in Malaysia include initial toll-tariff decided by the
Government, traffic congestion, change of road network and overloaded
freight transportation, which could cause damage to the road
surface and hence affecting the operation of a particular highway.
Abstract: This paper systematically investigates the timedependent
health outcomes for office staff during computer work
using the developed mathematical model. The model describes timedependent
health outcomes in multiple body regions associated with
computer usage. The association is explicitly presented with a doseresponse
relationship which is parametrized by body region
parameters. Using the developed model we perform extensive
investigations of the health outcomes statically and dynamically. We
compare the risk body regions and provide various severity rankings
of the discomfort rate changes with respect to computer-related
workload dynamically for the study population. Application of the
developed model reveals a wide range of findings. Such broad
spectrum of investigations in a single report literature is lacking.
Based upon the model analysis, it is discovered that the highest
average severity level of the discomfort exists in neck, shoulder, eyes,
shoulder joint/upper arm, upper back, low back and head etc. The
biggest weekly changes of discomfort rates are in eyes, neck, head,
shoulder, shoulder joint/upper arm and upper back etc. The fastest
discomfort rate is found in neck, followed by shoulder, eyes, head,
shoulder joint/upper arm and upper back etc. Most of our findings are
consistent with the literature, which demonstrates that the developed
model and results are applicable and valuable and can be utilized to
assess correlation between the amount of computer-related workload
and health risk.
Abstract: The history of money is described in relationship to the history of computing. With the transformation and acceptance of money as information, major challenges to the security of money have involved engineering, computer science, and management. Research opportunities and challenges are described as money continues its transformation into information.
Abstract: The increasing development of wireless networks and
the widespread popularity of handheld devices such as Personal
Digital Assistants (PDAs), mobile phones and wireless tablets
represents an incredible opportunity to enable mobile devices as a
universal payment method, involving daily financial transactions.
Unfortunately, some issues hampering the widespread acceptance of
mobile payment such as accountability properties, privacy protection,
limitation of wireless network and mobile device. Recently, many
public-key cryptography based mobile payment protocol have been
proposed. However, limited capabilities of mobile devices and
wireless networks make these protocols are unsuitable for mobile
network. Moreover, these protocols were designed to preserve
traditional flow of payment data, which is vulnerable to attack and
increase the user-s risk. In this paper, we propose a private mobile
payment protocol which based on client centric model and by
employing symmetric key operations. The proposed mobile payment
protocol not only minimizes the computational operations and
communication passes between the engaging parties, but also
achieves a completely privacy protection for the payer. The future
work will concentrate on improving the verification solution to
support mobile user authentication and authorization for mobile
payment transactions.
Abstract: Probability-based identity disclosure risk
measurement may give the same overall risk for different
anonymization strategy of the same dataset. Some entities in the
anonymous dataset may have higher identification risks than the
others. Individuals are more concerned about higher risks than the
average and are more interested to know if they have a possibility of
being under higher risk. A notation of overall risk in the above
measurement method doesn-t indicate whether some of the involved
entities have higher identity disclosure risk than the others. In this
paper, we have introduced an identity disclosure risk measurement
method that not only implies overall risk, but also indicates whether
some of the members have higher risk than the others. The proposed
method quantifies the overall risk based on the individual risk values,
the percentage of the records that have a risk value higher than the
average and how larger the higher risk values are compared to the
average. We have analyzed the disclosure risks for different
disclosure control techniques applied to original microdata and
present the results.
Abstract: The interaction of tunneling or mining with
groundwater has become a very relevant problem not only due to the
need to guarantee the safety of workers and to assure the efficiency of
the tunnel drainage systems, but also to safeguard water resources
from impoverishment and pollution risk. Therefore it is very
important to forecast the drainage processes (i.e., the evaluation of
drained discharge and drawdown caused by the excavation). The aim
of this study was to know better the system and to quantify the flow
drained from the Fontane mines, located in Val Germanasca (Turin,
Italy). This allowed to understand the hydrogeological local changes
in time. The work has therefore been structured as follows: the
reconstruction of the conceptual model with the geological,
hydrogeological and geological-structural study; the calculation of
the tunnel inflows (through the use of structural methods) and the
comparison with the measured flow rates; the water balance at the
basin scale. In this way it was possible to understand what are the
relationships between rainfall, groundwater level variations and the
effect of the presence of tunnels as a means of draining water.
Subsequently, it the effects produced by the excavation of the mining
tunnels was quantified, through numerical modeling. In particular,
the modeling made it possible to observe the drawdown variation as a
function of number, excavation depth and different mines linings.
Abstract: A Decision Support System/Expert System for stock
portfolio selection presented where at first step, both technical and
fundamental data used to estimate technical and fundamental return
and risk (1st phase); Then, the estimated values are aggregated with
the investor preferences (2nd phase) to produce convenient stock
portfolio.
In the 1st phase, there are two expert systems, each of which is
responsible for technical or fundamental estimation. In the technical
expert system, for each stock, twenty seven candidates are identified
and with using rough sets-based clustering method (RC) the effective
variables have been selected. Next, for each stock two fuzzy rulebases
are developed with fuzzy C-Mean method and Takai-Sugeno-
Kang (TSK) approach; one for return estimation and the other for
risk. Thereafter, the parameters of the rule-bases are tuned with backpropagation
method. In parallel, for fundamental expert systems,
fuzzy rule-bases have been identified in the form of “IF-THEN" rules
through brainstorming with the stock market experts and the input
data have been derived from financial statements; as a result two
fuzzy rule-bases have been generated for all the stocks, one for return
and the other for risk.
In the 2nd phase, user preferences represented by four criteria and
are obtained by questionnaire. Using an expert system, four estimated
values of return and risk have been aggregated with the respective
values of user preference. At last, a fuzzy rule base having four rules,
treats these values and produce a ranking score for each stock which
will lead to a satisfactory portfolio for the user.
The stocks of six manufacturing companies and the period of
2003-2006 selected for data gathering.
Abstract: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most
widely used technique for evaluating the relative efficiency of a set
of homogeneous decision making units. Traditionally, it assumes that
input and output variables are known in advance, ignoring the critical
issue of data uncertainty. In this paper, we deal with the problem
of efficiency evaluation under uncertain conditions by adopting the
general framework of the stochastic programming. We assume that
output parameters are represented by discretely distributed random
variables and we propose two different models defined according to a
neutral and risk-averse perspective. The models have been validated
by considering a real case study concerning the evaluation of the
technical efficiency of a sample of individual firms operating in
the Italian leather manufacturing industry. Our findings show the
validity of the proposed approach as ex-ante evaluation technique
by providing the decision maker with useful insights depending on
his risk aversion degree.
Abstract: This article analyses the relationship between
sovereign credit risk rating and gross domestic product for Central
and Eastern European Countries for the period 1996 – 2010. In order
to study the metioned relationship, we have used a numerical
transformation of the risk qualification, thus: we marked 0 the lowest
risk; then, we went on ascending, with a pace of 5, up to the score of
355 corresponding to the maximum risk. The used method of analysis
is that of econometric modelling with EViews 7.0. programme. This
software allows the analysis of data into a pannel type system,
involving a mix of periods of time and series of data for different
entities. The main conclusion of the work is the one confirming the
negative relationship between the sovereign credit risk and the gross
domestic product for the Central European and Eastern countries
during the reviewed period.
Abstract: A personal estimate of a health risk may not
correspond to a scientific assessment of the health risk. Hence, there
is a need to investigate perceived health risks in the public. In this
study, a young, educated and healthy group of people from a tertiary
institute were questioned about their health concerns. Ethics
clearance was obtained and data was collected by means of a
questionnaire. 362 students participated in the study. Tobacco use,
heavy alcohol drinking, illicit drugs, unsafe sex and potential
carcinogens were perceived to be the five greatest threats to health in
this cohort. On the other hand natural health products,
unemployment, unmet contraceptive needs, family violence and
homelessness were felt to be the least perceived health risks.
Nutrition-related health risks as well as health risks due to physical
inactivity and obesity were not perceived as major health threats.
Such a study of health perceptions may guide health promotion
campaigns.
Abstract: Structured phospholipids from commercial soybean
lecithin with oil enriched omega-3 fatty acid form by product of tuna
canning is alternative procedure to provides the stability of omega-3
fatty acid structure and increase these bioactive function in
metabolism. Best treatment condition was obtain in 18 hours
acidolysis reaction with 30% enzyme concentration, which EPADHA
incorporation level was 127,47 mg/g and incorporation
percentage of EPA-DHA was 51,04% at phospholipids structure.
This structured phospolipids could reduce atherosclerosis risk in
male Sprague dawley rat. Provision of structured phospholipids has
significant effect (α = 0.05) on changes in lipid profile, intima-media
thickness of aorta rats (male Sprague dawley) fed atherogenic diet.
Structured phospholipids intake can lower total cholesterol 78.36
mg/dL, total triglycerides 94,57 mg/dL, LDL levels 87.08 mg/dL and
increased HDL level as much as 12,64 mg/dL in 10 weeks cares.
Structured phospholipids intake also can prevent the thickening of
the intima-media layer of the aorta.
Abstract: this article proposed a methodology for computer
numerical control (CNC) machine scoring. The case study company
is a manufacturer of hard disk drive parts in Thailand. In this
company, sample of parts manufactured from CNC machine are
usually taken randomly for quality inspection. These inspection data
were used to make a decision to shut down the machine if it has
tendency to produce parts that are out of specification. Large amount
of data are produced in this process and data mining could be very
useful technique in analyzing them. In this research, data mining
techniques were used to construct a machine scoring model called
'machine priority assessment model (MPAM)'. This model helps to
ensure that the machine with higher risk of producing defective parts
be inspected before those with lower risk. If the defective prone
machine is identified sooner, defective part and rework could be
reduced hence improving the overall productivity. The results
showed that the proposed method can be successfully implemented
and approximately 351,000 baht of opportunity cost could have
saved in the case study company.
Abstract: This is a cross-cultural study that determines South
African multinational enterprises (MNEs) entry strategies as they
invest in Africa. An integrated theoretical framework comprising the
transaction cost theory, Uppsala model, eclectic paradigm and the
distance framework was adopted. A sample of 40 South African
MNEs with 415 existing FDI entries in Africa was drawn. Using an
ordered logistic regression model, the impact of culture on the choice
of degree of control by South African MNEs in Africa was
determined. Cultural distance was one of significant factors that
influenced South African MNEs- choice of degree of control.
Furthermore, South African MNEs are risk averse in all countries in
Africa but minimize the risks differently across sectors. Service
sectors chooses to own their subsidiaries 100% and avoid dealing
with the locals while manufacturing, resources and construction
choose to have a local partner to share the risk.
Abstract: This study employs a bivariate asymmetric GARCH
model to reveal the hidden dynamics price changes and volatility
among the emerging markets of Thailand and Malaysian after the
Asian financial crisis from January 2001 to December 2008. Our
results indicated that the equity markets are sharing the common
information (shock) that transmitted among each others. These
empirical findings are used to demonstrate the importance of shock
and volatility dynamic transmissions in the cross-market hedging and
market risk.
Abstract: The distribution, enrichment, accumulation, and potential ecological risk of copper (Cu) in the surface sediments of northern Kaohsiung Harbor, Taiwan were investigated. Sediment samples from 12 locations of northern Kaohsiung Harbor were collected and characterized for Cu, aluminum, water content, organic matter, total nitrogen, total phosphorous, total grease and grain size. Results showed that the Cu concentrations varied from 6.9–244 mg/kg with an average of 109±66 mg/kg. The spatial distribution of Cu reveals that the Cu concentration is relatively high in the river mouth region, and gradually diminishes toward the harbor entrance region. This indicates that upstream industrial and municipal wastewater discharges along the river bank are major sources of Cu pollution. Results from the enrichment factor and geo-accumulation index analyses imply that the sediments collected from the river mouth can be characterized between moderate and moderately severe degree enrichment and between none to medium and moderate accumulation of Cu, respectively. However, results of potential ecological risk index indicate that the sediment has low ecological potential risk.
Abstract: Mathematical programming has been applied to various
problems. For many actual problems, the assumption that the parameters
involved are deterministic known data is often unjustified. In
such cases, these data contain uncertainty and are thus represented
as random variables, since they represent information about the
future. Decision-making under uncertainty involves potential risk.
Stochastic programming is a commonly used method for optimization
under uncertainty. A stochastic programming problem with recourse
is referred to as a two-stage stochastic problem. In this study, we
consider a stochastic programming problem with simple integer
recourse in which the value of the recourse variable is restricted to a
multiple of a nonnegative integer. The algorithm of a dynamic slope
scaling procedure for solving this problem is developed by using a
property of the expected recourse function. Numerical experiments
demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is quite efficient. The
stochastic programming model defined in this paper is quite useful
for a variety of design and operational problems.