Abstract: Hospital staff and managers are under pressure and
concerned for effective use and management of scarce resources. The
hospital admissions require many decisions that have complex and
uncertain consequences for hospital resource utilization and patient
flow. It is challenging to predict risk of admissions and length of stay
of a patient due to their vague nature. There is no method to capture
the vague definition of admission of a patient. Also, current methods
and tools used to predict patients at risk of admission fail to deal with
uncertainty in unplanned admission, LOS, patients- characteristics.
The main objective of this paper is to deal with uncertainty in
health system variables, and handles uncertain relationship among
variables. An introduction of machine learning techniques along with
statistical methods like Regression methods can be a proposed
solution approach to handle uncertainty in health system variables. A
model that adapts fuzzy methods to handle uncertain data and
uncertain relationships can be an efficient solution to capture the
vague definition of admission of a patient.
Abstract: Based on general proportional integral (GPI) observers and sliding mode control technique, a robust control method is proposed for the master-slave synchronization of chaotic systems in the presence of parameter uncertainty and with partially measurable output signal. By using GPI observer, the master dynamics are reconstructed by the observations from a measurable output under the differential algebraic framework. Driven by the signals provided by GPI observer, a sliding mode control technique is used for the tracking control and synchronization of the master-slave dynamics. The convincing numerical results reveal the proposed method is effective, and successfully accommodate the system uncertainties, disturbances, and noisy corruptions.
Abstract: Missing data yields many analysis challenges. In case of complex survey design, in addition to dealing with missing data, researchers need to account for the sampling design to achieve useful inferences. Methods for incorporating sampling weights in neural network imputation were investigated to account for complex survey designs. An estimate of variance to account for the imputation uncertainty as well as the sampling design using neural networks will be provided. A simulation study was conducted to compare estimation results based on complete case analysis, multiple imputation using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and neural network imputation. Furthermore, a public-use dataset was used as an example to illustrate neural networks imputation under a complex survey design
Abstract: Researches show that probability-statistical methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation Gas Turbine Engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods is considered. According to the purpose of this problem training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. For GTE technical condition more adequate model making dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients- changes are analysed. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE work parameters have fuzzy character. Hence consideration of fuzzy skewness and kurtosis coefficients is expedient. Investigation of the basic characteristics changes- dynamics of GTE work parameters allows drawing conclusion on necessity of the Fuzzy Statistical Analysis at preliminary identification of the engines' technical condition. Researches of correlation coefficients values- changes shows also on their fuzzy character. Therefore for models choice the application of the Fuzzy Correlation Analysis results is offered. At the information sufficiency is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification (Hard Computing technology is used) on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stageby- stage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine technical condition was made.
Abstract: Nowadays, financial and economic crises are growing
more and reach more countries and sectors. These events have, as a
result, a considerable impact on the activities of the firms which think
unstable and in danger.
But besides this heavy uncertainty which weighs on the different
firms, the family firm, object of our research, is not only confronted
with these external difficulties but also with an internal challenge and
of size: that of transmission. Indeed, the transmission of an
organization from one generation to another can succeed as it can
fail; leaving considerable damage.
Our research registers as part of these problems since we tried to
understand relation between the behavior of two main actors of the
process of succession, predecessor and successor; and the success of
transmission.
Abstract: In this paper, application of Sliding Mode Control (SMC) technique for an Active Magnetic Bearing (AMB) system with varying rotor speed is considered. The gyroscopic effect and mass imbalance inherited in the system is proportional to rotor speed in which this nonlinearity effect causes high system instability as the rotor speed increases. Transformation of the AMB dynamic model into regular system shows that these gyroscopic effect and imbalance lie in the mismatched part of the system. A H2-based sliding surface is designed which bound the mismatched parts. The solution of the surface parameter is obtained using Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI). The performance of the controller applied to the AMB model is demonstrated through simulation works under various system conditions.
Abstract: Supply network management adopts a systematic
and integrative approach to managing the operations and
relationships of various parties in a supply network. The objective
of the manufactures in their supply network is to reduce inventory
costs and increase customer satisfaction levels. One way of doing
that is to synchronize delivery performance. A supply network can
be described by nodes representing the companies and the links
(relationships) between these nodes. Uncertainty in delivery time
depends on type of network relationship between suppliers. The
problem is to understand how the individual uncertainties influence
the total uncertainty of the network and identify those parts of the
network, which has the highest potential for improving the total
delivery time uncertainty.
Abstract: XML is a markup language which is becoming the
standard format for information representation and data exchange. A
major purpose of XML is the explicit representation of the logical
structure of a document. Much research has been performed to
exploit logical structure of documents in information retrieval in
order to precisely extract user information need from large
collections of XML documents. In this paper, we describe an XML
information retrieval weighting scheme that tries to find the most
relevant elements in XML documents in response to a user query.
We present this weighting model for information retrieval systems
that utilize plausible inferences to infer the relevance of elements in
XML documents. We also add to this model the Dempster-Shafer
theory of evidence to express the uncertainty in plausible inferences
and Dempster-Shafer rule of combination to combine evidences
derived from different inferences.
Abstract: In this research, Forming Limit Diagrams for supertension
sheet metals which are using in automobile industry have
been obtained. The exerted strains to sheet metals have been
measured with four different methods and the errors of each method
have also been represented. These methods have been compared with
together and the most efficient and economic way of extracting of the
exerted strains to sheet metals has been introduced. In this paper total
error and uncertainty of FLD extraction procedures have been
derived. Determination of the measurement uncertainty in extracting
of FLD has a great importance in design and analysis of the sheet
metal forming process.
Abstract: Three service providers in competition, try to optimize
their quality of service / content level and their service access
price. But, they have to deal with uncertainty on the consumers-
preferences. To reduce their uncertainty, they have the opportunity
to buy information and to build alliances. We determine the Shapley
value which is a fair way to allocate the grand coalition-s revenue
between the service providers. Then, we identify the values of β
(consumers- sensitivity coefficient to the quality of service / contents)
for which allocating the grand coalition-s revenue using the Shapley
value guarantees the system stability. For other values of β, we prove
that it is possible for the regulator to impose a per-period interest rate
maximizing the market coverage under equal allocation rules.
Abstract: Effective employee selection is a critical component
of a successful organization. Many important criteria for personnel
selection such as decision-making ability, adaptability, ambition, and
self-organization are naturally vague and imprecise to evaluate. The
rough sets theory (RST) as a new mathematical approach to
vagueness and uncertainty is a very well suited tool to deal with
qualitative data and various decision problems. This paper provides
conceptual, descriptive, and simulation results, concentrating chiefly
on human resources and personnel selection factors. The current
research derives certain decision rules which are able to facilitate
personnel selection and identifies several significant features based
on an empirical study conducted in an IT company in Iran.
Abstract: Switched-mode converters play now a significant role in
modern society. Their operation are often crucial in various electrical
applications affecting the every day life. Therefore, the quality of
the converters needs to be reliably verified. Recent studies have
shown that the converters can be fully characterized by a set of
frequency responses which can be efficiently used to validate the
proper operation of the converters. Consequently, several methods
have been proposed to measure the frequency responses fast and
accurately. Most often correlation-based techniques have been applied.
The presented measurement methods are highly sensitive to
external errors and system nonlinearities. This fact has been often
forgotten and the necessary uncertainty analysis of the measured
responses has been neglected. This paper presents a simple approach
to analyze the noise and nonlinearities in the frequency-response
measurements of switched-mode converters. Coherence analysis is
applied to form a confidence interval characterizing the noise and
nonlinearities involved in the measurements. The presented method is
verified by practical measurements from a high-frequency switchedmode
converter.
Abstract: The object of this work is the probabilistic performance evaluation of safety instrumented systems (SIS), i.e. the average probability of dangerous failure on demand (PFDavg) and the average frequency of failure (PFH), taking into account the uncertainties related to the different parameters that come into play: failure rate (λ), common cause failure proportion (β), diagnostic coverage (DC)... This leads to an accurate and safe assessment of the safety integrity level (SIL) inherent to the safety function performed by such systems. This aim is in keeping with the requirement of the IEC 61508 standard with respect to handling uncertainty. To do this, we propose an approach that combines (1) Monte Carlo simulation and (2) fuzzy sets. Indeed, the first method is appropriate where representative statistical data are available (using pdf of the relating parameters), while the latter applies in the case characterized by vague and subjective information (using membership function). The proposed approach is fully supported with a suitable computer code.
Abstract: This paper proposes a novel approach to the question of lithofacies classification based on an assessment of the uncertainty in the classification results. The proposed approach has multiple neural networks (NN), and interval neutrosophic sets (INS) are used to classify the input well log data into outputs of multiple classes of lithofacies. A pair of n-class neural networks are used to predict n-degree of truth memberships and n-degree of false memberships. Indeterminacy memberships or uncertainties in the predictions are estimated using a multidimensional interpolation method. These three memberships form the INS used to support the confidence in results of multiclass classification. Based on the experimental data, our approach improves the classification performance as compared to an existing technique applied only to the truth membership. In addition, our approach has the capability to provide a measure of uncertainty in the problem of multiclass classification.
Abstract: In this paper, a new version of support vector regression (SVR) is presented namely Fuzzy Cost SVR (FCSVR). Individual property of the FCSVR is operation over fuzzy data whereas fuzzy cost (fuzzy margin and fuzzy penalty) are maximized. This idea admits to have uncertainty in the penalty and margin terms jointly. Robustness against noise is shown in the experimental results as a property of the proposed method and superiority relative conventional SVR.
Abstract: As a vital activity for companies, new product
development (NPD) is also a very risky process due to the high
uncertainty degree encountered at every development stage and the
inevitable dependence on how previous steps are successfully
accomplished. Hence, there is an apparent need to evaluate new
product initiatives systematically and make accurate decisions under
uncertainty. Another major concern is the time pressure to launch a
significant number of new products to preserve and increase the
competitive power of the company. In this work, we propose an
integrated decision-making framework based on neural networks and
fuzzy logic to make appropriate decisions and accelerate the
evaluation process. We are especially interested in the two initial
stages where new product ideas are selected (go/no go decision) and
the implementation order of the corresponding projects are
determined. We show that this two-staged intelligent approach allows
practitioners to roughly and quickly separate good and bad product
ideas by making use of previous experiences, and then, analyze a
more shortened list rigorously.
Abstract: The main criteria of designing in the most hydraulic
constructions essentially are based on runoff or discharge of water. Two of those important criteria are runoff and return period. Mostly,
these measures are calculated or estimated by stochastic data.
Another feature in hydrological data is their impreciseness.
Therefore, in order to deal with uncertainty and impreciseness, based
on Buckley-s estimation method, a new fuzzy method of evaluating hydrological measures are developed. The method introduces
triangular shape fuzzy numbers for different measures in which both
of the uncertainty and impreciseness concepts are considered. Besides, since another important consideration in most of the
hydrological studies is comparison of a measure during different
months or years, a new fuzzy method which is consistent with special form of proposed fuzzy numbers, is also developed. Finally, to
illustrate the methods more explicitly, the two algorithms are tested on one simple example and a real case study.
Abstract: Stochastic comparison has been an important
direction of research in various area. This can be done by the use of
the notion of stochastic ordering which gives qualitatitive rather than
purely quantitative estimation of the system under study. In this
paper we present applications of comparison based uncertainty
related to entropy in Reliability analysis, for example to design
better systems. These results can be used as a priori information in
simulation studies.
Abstract: Overall cost is a significant consideration in any
decision-making process. Although many studies were carried out on
overall cost in construction, little has treated the uncertainties of real
life cycle development. On the basis of several case studies, a
feedback process was performed on the historical data of studied
buildings. This process enabled to identify some factors causing
uncertainty during the operational period. As a result, the research
proposes a new method for assessing the overall cost during a part of
the building-s life cycle taking account of the building actual value,
its end-of-life value and the influence of the identified life cycle
uncertainty factors. The findings are a step towards a higher level of
reliability in overall cost evaluation taking account of some usually
unexpected uncertainty factors.
Abstract: In this article, a mathematical programming model
for choosing an optimum portfolio of investments is developed.
The investments are considered as investment projects. The
uncertainties of the real world are associated through fuzzy
concepts for coefficients of the proposed model (i. e. initial
investment costs, profits, resource requirement, and total available
budget). Model has been coded by using LINGO 11.0 solver. The
results of a full analysis of optimistic and pessimistic derivative
models are promising for selecting an optimum portfolio of
projects in presence of uncertainty.