Abstract: Due to uncertainty of wind velocity, wind power generators don’t have deterministic output power. Utilizing wind power generation and thermal power plants together create new concerns for operation engineers of power systems. In this paper, a model is presented to implement the uncertainty of load and generated wind power which can be utilized in power system operation planning. Stochastic behavior of parameters is simulated by generating scenarios that can be solved by deterministic method. A mixed-integer linear programming method is used for solving deterministic generation scheduling problem. The proposed approach is applied to a 12-unit test system including 10 thermal units and 2 wind farms. The results show affectivity of piecewise linear model in unit commitment problems. Also using linear programming causes a considerable reduction in calculation times and guarantees convergence to the global optimum. Neglecting the uncertainty of wind velocity causes higher cost assessment of generation scheduling.
Abstract: Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.
Abstract: This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.
Abstract: Background: Dimensional and transdiagnostic approaches as a result of high comorbidity among mental disorders have captured researchers and clinicians interests for exploring the latent factors to development and maintenance of some psychological disorders. The goal of present study is comparing some of these common factors between generalized anxiety disorder and unipolar mood disorder. Methods: 27 patients with generalized anxiety disorder, 29 patients with depression disorder were recruited by using SCID-I and 69 non-clinical populations were selected by using GHQ cut off point. MANCOVA was used for analyzing data. Results: The results show that worry, rumination, intolerance of uncertainty, maladaptive metacognitive beliefs, and experiential avoidance were all significantly different between GAD and unipolar mood disorder groups. However, there weren’t any significant differences in difficulties in emotion regulation and neuroticism between GAD and unipolar mood disorder groups. Discussion: Results indicate that although there are some transdiagnostic and common factors in GAD and unipolar mood disorder, there may be some specific vulnerability factors for each disorder. Further study is needed for answering these questions.
Abstract: Recent experimental evidences have shown that because
of a fast convergence and a nice accuracy, neural networks training
via extended kalman filter (EKF) method is widely applied. However,
as to an uncertainty of the system dynamics or modeling error, the
performance of the method is unreliable. In order to overcome this
problem in this paper, a new finite impulse response (FIR) filter based
learning algorithm is proposed to train radial basis function neural
networks (RBFN) for nonlinear function approximation. Compared
to the EKF training method, the proposed FIR filter training method
is more robust to those environmental conditions. Furthermore , the
number of centers will be considered since it affects the performance
of approximation.
Abstract: This study explores the clinical features of neurodegenerative disease patients with tremor. We study the motor impairments in patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) and essential tremor (ET). Since uncertainty exists on whether Parkinson's disease (PD) and essential tremor (ET) patients have similar degree of impairment during motor tasks, this study based on the self-developed computerized handwriting movement analysis to characterize motor functions of these two impairments. The recruited subjects were diagnosed and confirmed one of neurodegenerative diseases. They were undergone general clinical evaluations by physicians in the first year. We recruited 8 participants with PD and 10 with ET. Additional 12 participants without any neuromuscular dysfunction were recruited as control group. This study used fine motor control of penmanship on digital tablet for sensorimotor function tests. The movement speed in PD/ET group is found significant slower than subjects in normal control group. In movement intensity and speed, the result found subject with ET has similar clinical feature with PD subjects. The ET group shows smaller and slower movements than control group but not to the same extent as PD group. The results of this study contribute to the early screening and detection of diseases and the evaluation of disease progression.
Abstract: This paper presents a visualized computer aided case tool for non-expert, called Visual Time, for representing and reasoning about incomplete and uncertain temporal information. It is both expressive and versatile, allowing logical conjunctions and disjunctions of both absolute and relative temporal relations, such as “Before”, “Meets”, “Overlaps”, “Starts”, “During”, and “Finishes”, etc. In terms of a visualized framework, Visual Time provides a user-friendly environment for describing scenarios with rich temporal structure in natural language, which can be formatted as structured temporal phrases and modeled in terms of Temporal Relationship Diagrams (TRD). A TRD can be automatically and visually transformed into a corresponding Time Graph, supported by automatic consistency checker that derives a verdict to confirm if a given scenario is temporally consistent or inconsistent.
Abstract: Modern management in most fields is performance based; both planning and implementation of maintenance and operational activities are driven by appropriately defined performance indicators. Continuous real-time data collection for management is becoming feasible due to technological advancements. Outdated and insufficient input data may result in incorrect decisions. When using deterministic models the uncertainty of the object state is not visible thus applying the deterministic models are more likely to give false diagnosis. Constructing structured probabilistic models of the performance indicators taking into consideration the surrounding indicator environment enables to estimate the trustworthiness of the indicator values. It also assists to fill gaps in data to improve the quality of the performance analysis and management decisions. In this paper authors discuss the application of probabilistic graphical models in the road performance measurement and propose a high-level conceptual model that enables analyzing and predicting more precisely future pavement deterioration based on road utilization.
Abstract: Discrete search path planning in time-constrained uncertain environment relying upon imperfect sensors is known to be hard, and current problem-solving techniques proposed so far to compute near real-time efficient path plans are mainly bounded to provide a few move solutions. A new information-theoretic –based open-loop decision model explicitly incorporating false alarm sensor readings, to solve a single agent military logistics search-and-delivery path planning problem with anticipated feedback is presented. The decision model consists in minimizing expected entropy considering anticipated possible observation outcomes over a given time horizon. The model captures uncertainty associated with observation events for all possible scenarios. Entropy represents a measure of uncertainty about the searched target location. Feedback information resulting from possible sensor observations outcomes along the projected path plan is exploited to update anticipated unit target occupancy beliefs. For the first time, a compact belief update formulation is generalized to explicitly include false positive observation events that may occur during plan execution. A novel genetic algorithm is then proposed to efficiently solve search path planning, providing near-optimal solutions for practical realistic problem instances. Given the run-time performance of the algorithm, natural extension to a closed-loop environment to progressively integrate real visit outcomes on a rolling time horizon can be easily envisioned. Computational results show the value of the approach in comparison to alternate heuristics.
Abstract: A case study of the generation scheduling optimization
of the multi-hydroplants on the Yuan River Basin in China is reported
in this paper. Concerning the uncertainty of the inflows, the
long/mid-term generation scheduling (LMTGS) problem is solved by
a stochastic model in which the inflows are considered as stochastic
variables. For the short-term generation scheduling (STGS) problem, a
constraint violation priority is defined in case not all constraints are
satisfied. Provided the stage-wise separable condition and low
dimensions, the hydroplant-based operational region schedules
(HBORS) problem is solved by dynamic programming (DP). The
coordination of LMTGS and STGS is presented as well. The
feasibility and the effectiveness of the models and solution methods
are verified by the numerical results.
Abstract: Nowadays, more engineering systems are using some
kind of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for the development of their
processes. Some well-known AI techniques include artificial neural
nets, fuzzy inference systems, and neuro-fuzzy inference systems
among others. Furthermore, many decision-making applications base
their intelligent processes on Fuzzy Logic; due to the Fuzzy
Inference Systems (FIS) capability to deal with problems that are
based on user knowledge and experience. Also, knowing that users
have a wide variety of distinctiveness, and generally, provide
uncertain data, this information can be used and properly processed
by a FIS. To properly consider uncertainty and inexact system input
values, FIS normally use Membership Functions (MF) that represent
a degree of user satisfaction on certain conditions and/or constraints.
In order to define the parameters of the MFs, the knowledge from
experts in the field is very important. This knowledge defines the MF
shape to process the user inputs and through fuzzy reasoning and
inference mechanisms, the FIS can provide an “appropriate" output.
However an important issue immediately arises: How can it be
assured that the obtained output is the optimum solution? How can it
be guaranteed that each MF has an optimum shape? A viable solution
to these questions is through the MFs parameter optimization. In this
Paper a novel parameter optimization process is presented. The
process for FIS parameter optimization consists of the five simple
steps that can be easily realized off-line. Here the proposed process
of FIS parameter optimization it is demonstrated by its
implementation on an Intelligent Interface section dealing with the
on-line customization / personalization of internet portals applied to
E-commerce.
Abstract: Robust stability and performance are the two most
basic features of feedback control systems. The harmonic balance
analysis technique enables to analyze the stability of limit cycles
arising from a neural network control based system operating over
nonlinear plants. In this work a robust stability analysis based on the
harmonic balance is presented and applied to a neural based control
of a non-linear binary distillation column with unstructured
uncertainty. We develop ways to describe uncertainty in the form of
neglected nonlinear dynamics and high harmonics for the plant and
controller respectively. Finally, conclusions about the performance of
the neural control system are discussed using the Nyquist stability
margin together with the structured singular values of the uncertainty
as a robustness measure.
Abstract: The basic aim of our study is to give a possible model for handling uncertain information. This model is worked out in the framework of DATALOG. The concept of multivalued knowledgebase will be defined as a quadruple of any background knowledge; a deduction mechanism; a connecting algorithm, and a function set of the program, which help us to determine the uncertainty levels of the results. At first the concept of fuzzy Datalog will be summarized, then its extensions for intuitionistic- and interval-valued fuzzy logic is given and the concept of bipolar fuzzy Datalog is introduced. Based on these extensions the concept of multivalued knowledge-base will be defined. This knowledge-base can be a possible background of a future agent-model.
Abstract: Urban problems are problems of organized complexity. Thus, many models and scientific methods to resolve urban problems are failed. This study is concerned with proposing of a fuzzy system driven approach for classification and solving urban problems. The proposed study investigated mainly the selection of the inputs and outputs of urban systems for classification of urban problems. In this research, five categories of urban problems, respect to fuzzy system approach had been recognized: control, polytely, optimizing, open and decision making problems. Grounded Theory techniques were then applied to analyze the data and develop new solving method for each category. The findings indicate that the fuzzy system methods are powerful processes and analytic tools for helping planners to resolve urban complex problems. These tools can be successful where as others have failed because both incorporate or address uncertainty and risk; complexity and systems interacting with other systems.
Abstract: The many feasible alternatives and conflicting
objectives make equipment selection in materials handling a
complicated task. This paper presents utilizing Monte Carlo (MC)
simulation combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to
evaluate and select the most appropriate Material Handling
Equipment (MHE). The proposed hybrid model was built on the base
of material handling equation to identify main and sub criteria critical
to MHE selection. The criteria illustrate the properties of the material
to be moved, characteristics of the move, and the means by which the
materials will be moved. The use of MC simulation beside the AHP
is very powerful where it allows the decision maker to represent
his/her possible preference judgments as random variables. This will
reduce the uncertainty of single point judgment at conventional AHP,
and provide more confidence in the decision problem results. A small
business pharmaceutical company is used as an example to illustrate
the development and application of the proposed model.
Abstract: German electricity European options on futures using
Lévy processes for the underlying asset are examined. Implied
volatility evolution, under each of the considered models, is
discussed after calibrating for the Merton jump diffusion (MJD),
variance gamma (VG), normal inverse Gaussian (NIG), Carr, Geman,
Madan and Yor (CGMY) and the Black and Scholes (B&S) model.
Implied volatility is examined for the entire sample period, revealing
some curious features about market evolution, where data fitting
performances of the five models are compared. It is shown that
variance gamma processes provide relatively better results and that
implied volatility shows significant differences through time, having
increasingly evolved. Volatility changes for changed uncertainty, or
else, increasing futures prices and there is evidence for the need to
account for seasonality when modelling both electricity spot/futures
prices and volatility.
Abstract: We consider power system expansion planning under
uncertainty. In our approach, integer programming and stochastic
programming provide a basic framework. We develop a multistage
stochastic programming model in which some of the variables are
restricted to integer values. By utilizing the special property of the
problem, called block separable recourse, the problem is transformed
into a two-stage stochastic program with recourse. The electric power
capacity expansion problem is reformulated as the problem with first
stage integer variables and continuous second stage variables. The
L-shaped algorithm to solve the problem is proposed.
Abstract: This paper presents the novel Rao-Blackwellised
particle filter (RBPF) for mobile robot simultaneous localization and
mapping (SLAM) using monocular vision. The particle filter is
combined with unscented Kalman filter (UKF) to extending the path
posterior by sampling new poses that integrate the current observation
which drastically reduces the uncertainty about the robot pose. The
landmark position estimation and update is also implemented through
UKF. Furthermore, the number of resampling steps is determined
adaptively, which seriously reduces the particle depletion problem,
and introducing the evolution strategies (ES) for avoiding particle
impoverishment. The 3D natural point landmarks are structured with
matching Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) feature pairs. The
matching for multi-dimension SIFT features is implemented with a
KD-Tree in the time cost of O(log2
N). Experiment results on real robot
in our indoor environment show the advantages of our methods over
previous approaches.
Abstract: This paper presents the IP traffic analysis. The traffic
was collected from the network of Suranaree University of
Technology using the software based on the Simple Network
Management Protocol (SNMP). In particular, we analyze the
distribution of the aggregated traffic during the hours of peak load
and light load. The traffic profiles including the parameters described
the traffic distributions were derived. From the statistical analysis
applying three different methods, including the Kolmogorov Smirnov
test, Anderson Darling test, and Chi-Squared test, we found that the
IP traffic distribution is a non-normal distribution and the
distributions during the peak load and the light load are different. The
experimental study and analysis show high uncertainty of the IP
traffic.
Abstract: We present a method for the selection of students
in interdisciplinary studies based on the hybrid averaging
operator. We assume that the available information given in
the problem is uncertain so it is necessary to use interval
numbers. Therefore, we suggest a new type of hybrid
aggregation called uncertain induced generalized hybrid
averaging (UIGHA) operator. It is an aggregation operator
that considers the weighted average (WA) and the ordered
weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the same formulation.
Therefore, we are able to consider the degree of optimism of
the decision maker and grades of importance in the same
approach. By using interval numbers, we are able to represent
the information considering the best and worst possible results
so the decision maker gets a more complete view of the
decision problem. We develop an illustrative example of the
proposed scheme in the selection of students in
interdisciplinary studies. We see that with the use of the
UIGHA operator we get a more complete representation of the
selection problem. Then, the decision maker is able to
consider a wide range of alternatives depending on his
interests. We also show other potential applications that could
be used by using the UIGHA operator in educational problems
about selection of different types of resources such as
students, professors, etc.