Abstract: Due to today’s globalization as well as outsourcing
practices of the companies, the Supply Chain (SC) performances
have become more dependent on the efficient movement of material
among places that are geographically dispersed, where there is more
chance for disruptions. One such disruption is the quality and
delivery uncertainties of outsourcing. These uncertainties could lead
the products to be unsafe and, as is the case in a number of recent
examples, companies may have to end up in recalling their products.
As a result of these problems, there is a need to develop a
methodology for selecting suppliers globally in view of risks
associated with low quality and late delivery. Accordingly, we
developed a two-stage stochastic model that captures the risks
associated with uncertainty in quality and delivery as well as a
solution procedure for the model. The stochastic model developed
simultaneously optimizes supplier selection and purchase quantities
under price discounts over a time horizon. In particular, our target is
the study of global organizations with multiple sites and multiple
overseas suppliers, where the pricing is offered in suppliers’ local
currencies. Our proposed methodology is applied to a case study for a
US automotive company having two assembly plants and four
potential global suppliers to illustrate how the proposed model works
in practice.
Abstract: Electrohydraulic servo system have been used in industry in a wide number of applications. Its dynamics are highly nonlinear and also have large extent of model uncertainties and external disturbances. In this paper, a robust back-stepping control (RBSC) scheme is proposed to overcome the problem of disturbances and system uncertainties effectively and to improve the tracking performance of EHS systems. In order to implement the proposed control scheme, the system uncertainties in EHS systems are considered as total leakage coefficient and effective oil volume. In addition, in order to obtain the virtual controls for stabilizing system, the update rule for the system uncertainty term is induced by the Lyapunov control function (LCF). To verify the performance and robustness of the proposed control system, computer simulation of the proposed control system using Matlab/Simulink Software is executed. From the computer simulation, it was found that the RBSC system produces the desired tracking performance and has robustness to the disturbances and system uncertainties of EHS systems.
Abstract: In medical investigations, uncertainty is a major
challenging problem in making decision for doctors/experts to
identify the diseases with a common set of symptoms and also has
been extensively increasing in medical diagnosis problems. The
theory of cross entropy for intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFS) is an
effective approach in coping uncertainty in decision making for
medical diagnosis problem. The main focus of this paper is to
propose a new intuitionistic fuzzy cross entropy measure (IFCEM),
which aid in reducing the uncertainty and doctors/experts will take
their decision easily in context of patient’s disease. It is shown that
the proposed measure has some elegant properties, which
demonstrates its potency. Further, it is also exemplified in detail the
efficiency and utility of the proposed measure by using a real life
case study of diagnosis the disease in medical science.
Abstract: This paper attempts to define the validity domain of
LSDP (Loop Shaping Design Procedure) controller system, by
determining the suitable uncertainty region, so that linear system be
stable. Indeed the LSDP controller cannot provide stability for any
perturbed system. For this, we will use the gap metric tool that is
introduced into the control literature for studying robustness
properties of feedback systems with uncertainty. A 2nd order electric
linear system example is given to define the validity domain of LSDP
controller and effectiveness gap metric.
Abstract: This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil
prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the
period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South
African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by
the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR
model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and
positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also
allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional
standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in
oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive
and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of
food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.
Abstract: The main goal of this article is to describe the online
flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed
for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic
process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and
hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and
uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process
sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use
of a high performance computing environment is proposed for all
parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on
the Ostravice River catchment is presented that shows actual
durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.
Abstract: Solid waste management in steel industry is broadly
classified in “4 Rs” i.e. reduce, reuse, recycle and restore the
materials. Reuse and recycling the entire solid waste generated in the
process of steel making is a viable solution in targeting a clean, green
and zero waste technology leading to sustainable development of the
steel industry. Solid waste management has gained importance in
steel industry in view of its uncertainty, volatility and speculation due
to world competitive standards, rising input costs, scarcity of raw
materials and solid waste generated like in other sectors. The
challenges that the steel Industry faces today are the requirement of a
sustainable development by meeting the needs of our present
generation without compromising the ability of future generations.
Technologies are developed not only for gainful utilization of solid
wastes in manufacture of conventional products but also for
conversion of same in to completely new products.
Abstract: Established objective and subjective preconditions for
entrepreneurship, forming the business organically related whole, are
the necessary condition of successful entrepreneurial activities.
Objective preconditions for entrepreneurship are developed by
market economy that should stimulate entrepreneurship by allowing
the use of economic opportunities for all those who want to do
business in respective field while providing guarantees to all owners
and creating a stable business environment for entrepreneurs.
Subjective preconditions of entrepreneurship are formed primarily by
personal characteristics of the entrepreneur. These are his properties,
abilities, skills, physiological and psychological preconditions which
may be inherited, inborn or sequentially developed and obtained
during his life on the basis of education and influences of
surrounding environment. The paper is dealing with issues of
objective and subjective preconditions for entrepreneurship and
provides their analysis in view of the current situation in Slovakia. It
presents risks of the business environment in Slovakia that the Slovak
managers considered the most significant in 2014 and defines the
dominant attributes of the entrepreneur in the current business
environment in Slovakia.
Abstract: The development of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
into a regional trade, tourism, finance and logistics hub has
transformed its real estate markets. However, speculative activity and
price volatility remain concerns. UAE residential market values
(MV) are exposed to fluctuations in capital flows and migration
which, in turn, are affected by geopolitical uncertainty, oil price
volatility and global investment market sentiment. Internally, a
complex interplay between administrative boundaries, land tenure,
building quality and evolving location characteristics fragments UAE
residential property markets. In short, the UAE Residential Valuation
System (UAE-RVS) confronts multiple challenges to collect, filter
and analyze relevant information in complex and dynamic spatial and
capital markets. A robust (RVS) can mitigate the risk of unhelpful
volatility, speculative excess or investment mistakes. The research
outlines the institutional, ontological, dynamic and epistemological
issues at play. We highlight the importance of system capabilities,
valuation standard salience and stakeholders trust.
Abstract: The practice of freeing monuments from subsequent
additions crosses the entire history of conservation and it is
traditionally connected to the aim of valorisation, both for cultural
and educational purpose and recently even for touristic exploitation.
Defence heritage has been widely interested by these cultural and
technical moods from philological restoration to critic innovations. A
renovated critical analysis of Italian episodes and in particular the
Sardinian case of the area of San Pancrazio in Cagliari, constitute an
important lesson about the limits of this practice and the uncertainty
in terms of results, towards the definition of a sustainable good
practice in the restoration of military architectures.
Abstract: Geometric and mechanical properties all influence the
resistance of RC structures and may, in certain combination of
property values, increase the risk of a brittle failure of the whole
system.
This paper presents a statistical and probabilistic investigation on
the resistance of RC beams designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8,
and subjected to multiple failure modes, under both the natural
variation of material properties and the uncertainty associated with
cross-section and transverse reinforcement geometry. A full
probabilistic model based on JCSS Probabilistic Model Code is
derived. Different beams are studied through material nonlinear
analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. The resistance model is
consistent with Eurocode 2. Both a multivariate statistical evaluation
and the data clustering analysis of outcomes are then performed.
Results show that the ultimate load behaviour of RC beams
subjected to flexural and shear failure modes seems to be mainly
influenced by the combination of the mechanical properties of both
longitudinal reinforcement and stirrups, and the tensile strength of
concrete, of which the latter appears to affect the overall response of
the system in a nonlinear way. The model uncertainty of the
resistance model used in the analysis plays undoubtedly an important
role in interpreting results.
Abstract: In this paper a real-time obstacle avoidance approach
for both autonomous and non-autonomous dynamical systems (DS) is
presented. In this approach the original dynamics of the controller
which allow us to determine safety margin can be modulated.
Different common types of DS increase the robot’s reactiveness in
the face of uncertainty in the localization of the obstacle especially
when robot moves very fast in changeable complex environments.
The method is validated by simulation and influence of different
autonomous and non-autonomous DS such as important
characteristics of limit cycles and unstable DS. Furthermore, the
position of different obstacles in complex environment is explained.
Finally, the verification of avoidance trajectories is described through
different parameters such as safety factor.
Abstract: One of the major difficulties introduced with wind
power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating
from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many
different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing
power requirements. For this reason, in power system development
planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future
wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are
required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts.
This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models
which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed
models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized
in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct
models are presented based on data availability. First model uses
wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant
locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind
speeds.
Abstract: Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under
optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability
of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator
outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge
investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc.
As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk,
which has led to the development of risk management practices. This
paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market
participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.
Abstract: The knowledge of biodiesel density over large ranges
of temperature and pressure is important for predicting the behavior
of fuel injection and combustion systems in diesel engines, and for
the optimization of such systems. In this study, cottonseed oil was
transesterified into biodiesel and its density was measured at
temperatures between 288 K and 358 K and pressures between 0.1
MPa and 30 MPa, with expanded uncertainty estimated as ±1.6 kg⋅m-
3. Experimental pressure-volume-temperature (pVT) cottonseed data
was used along with literature data relative to other 18 biodiesels, in
order to build a database used to test the correlation of density with
temperarure and pressure using the Goharshadi–Morsali–Abbaspour
equation of state (GMA EoS). To our knowledge, this is the first that
density measurements are presented for cottonseed biodiesel under
such high pressures, and the GMA EoS used to model biodiesel
density. The new tested EoS allowed correlations within 0.2 kg·m-3
corresponding to average relative deviations within 0.02%. The built
database was used to develop and test a new full predictive model
derived from the observed linear relation between density and degree
of unsaturation (DU), which depended from biodiesel FAMEs
profile. The average density deviation of this method was only about
3 kg.m-3 within the temperature and pressure limits of application.
These results represent appreciable improvements in the context of
density prediction at high pressure when compared with other
equations of state.
Abstract: Natural gas, as one of the most important sources of
energy for many of the industrial and domestic users all over the
world, has a complex, huge supply chain which is in need of heavy
investments in all the phases of exploration, extraction, production,
transportation, storage and distribution. The main purpose of supply
chain is to meet customers’ need efficiently and with minimum cost.
In this study, with the aim of minimizing economic costs, different
levels of natural gas supply chain in the form of a multi-echelon,
multi-period fuzzy linear programming have been modeled. In this
model, different constraints including constraints on demand
satisfaction, capacity, input/output balance and presence/absence of a
path have been defined. The obtained results suggest efficiency of the
recommended model in optimal allocation and reduction of supply
chain costs.
Abstract: This work proposes a fuzzy methodology to support
the investment decisions. While choosing among competitive
investment projects, the methodology makes ranking of projects
using the new aggregation OWA operator – AsPOWA, presented in
the environment of possibility uncertainty. For numerical evaluation
of the weighting vector associated with the AsPOWA operator the
mathematical programming problem is constructed. On the basis of
the AsPOWA operator the projects’ group ranking maximum criteria
is constructed. The methodology also allows making the most
profitable investments into several of the project using the method
developed by the authors for discrete possibilistic bicriteria problems.
The article provides an example of the investment decision-making
that explains the work of the proposed methodology.
Abstract: Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns
with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes.
Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become
increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty
related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed
changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an
increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although
the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general
picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and
frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary
characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate
change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic
downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models
(RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric
physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields
as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture
the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a
basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical
relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called
predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands.
The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical
downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological
variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then
served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to
obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other
hydrological variables of interest.
Abstract: The construction of a new airport or the extension of
an existing one requires massive investments and many times public
private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such
projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with
respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long
term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects.
While many airport development projects have been a success, some
others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters.
This communication puts forward a new approach for airport
investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into
account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and
proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for
minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory
and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An
illustration of the proposed approach is provided.
Abstract: Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.