Abstract: One of the major difficulties introduced with wind
power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating
from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many
different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing
power requirements. For this reason, in power system development
planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future
wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are
required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts.
This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models
which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed
models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized
in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct
models are presented based on data availability. First model uses
wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant
locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind
speeds.