Abstract: The quality of short term load forecasting can improve the efficiency of planning and operation of electric utilities. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are employed for nonlinear short term load forecasting owing to their powerful nonlinear mapping capabilities. At present, there is no systematic methodology for optimal design and training of an artificial neural network. One has often to resort to the trial and error approach. This paper describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for short-term load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to develop the optimum large neural network structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. PSO is a novel random optimization method based on swarm intelligence, which has more powerful ability of global optimization. Employing PSO algorithms on the design and training of ANNs allows the ANN architecture and parameters to be easily optimized. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. The experimental results show that the proposed method optimized by PSO can quicken the learning speed of the network and improve the forecasting precision compared with the conventional Back Propagation (BP) method. Moreover, it is not only simple to calculate, but also practical and effective. Also, it provides a greater degree of accuracy in many cases and gives lower percent errors all the time for STLF problem compared to BP method. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.
Abstract: In this paper we propose and examine an Adaptive
Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in Smoothing Transition
Autoregressive (STAR) modeling. Because STAR models follow
fuzzy logic approach, in the non-linear part fuzzy rules can be
incorporated or other training or computational methods can be
applied as the error backpropagation algorithm instead to nonlinear
squares. Furthermore, additional fuzzy membership functions can be
examined, beside the logistic and exponential, like the triangle,
Gaussian and Generalized Bell functions among others. We examine
two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and
the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.
Abstract: Decision feedback equalizers are commonly employed to reduce the error caused by intersymbol interference. Here, an adaptive decision feedback equalizer is presented with a new adaptation algorithm. The algorithm follows a block-based approach of normalized least mean square (NLMS) algorithm with set-membership filtering and achieves a significantly less computational complexity over its conventional NLMS counterpart with set-membership filtering. It is shown in the results that the proposed algorithm yields similar type of bit error rate performance over a reasonable signal to noise ratio in comparison with the latter one.
Abstract: In this paper a comprehensive model of a fossil fueled
power plant (FFPP) is developed in order to evaluate the
performance of a newly designed turbine follower controller.
Considering the drawbacks of previous works, an overall model is
developed to minimize the error between each subsystem model
output and the experimental data obtained at the actual power plant.
The developed model is organized in two main subsystems namely;
Boiler and Turbine. Considering each FFPP subsystem
characteristics, different modeling approaches are developed. For
economizer, evaporator, superheater and reheater, first order models
are determined based on principles of mass and energy conservation.
Simulations verify the accuracy of the developed models. Due to the
nonlinear characteristics of attemperator, a new model, based on a
genetic-fuzzy systems utilizing Pittsburgh approach is developed
showing a promising performance vis-à-vis those derived with other
methods like ANFIS. The optimization constraints are handled
utilizing penalty functions. The effect of increasing the number of
rules and membership functions on the performance of the proposed
model is also studied and evaluated. The turbine model is developed
based on the equation of adiabatic expansion. Parameters of all
evaluated models are tuned by means of evolutionary algorithms.
Based on the developed model a fuzzy PI controller is developed. It
is then successfully implemented in the turbine follower control
strategy of the plant. In this control strategy instead of keeping
control parameters constant, they are adjusted on-line with regard to
the error and the error rate. It is shown that the response of the
system improves significantly. It is also shown that fuel consumption
decreases considerably.
Abstract: Cooperative diversity (CD) has been adopted in many communication systems because it helps in improving performance of the wireless communication systems with the help of the relays that emulate the multiple antenna terminals. This work aims to provide the derivation of the performance analysis expressions of the multiuser diversity (MUD) in the two-hop cooperative multi-relay wireless networks (TCMRNs). Considering the work analysis, we provide analytically the derivation of a closed form expression of the two most commonly used performance metrics namely, the outage probability and the symbol error probability (SEP) for the fixed decode-and-forward (FDF) protocol with MUD.
Abstract: Prior research evidenced that unimodal biometric
systems have several tradeoffs like noisy data, intra-class variations,
restricted degrees of freedom, non-universality, spoof attacks, and
unacceptable error rates. In order for the biometric system to be more
secure and to provide high performance accuracy, more than one
form of biometrics are required. Hence, the need arise for multimodal
biometrics using combinations of different biometric modalities. This
paper introduces a multimodal biometric system (MMBS) based on
fusion of whole dorsal hand geometry and fingerprints that acquires
right and left (Rt/Lt) near-infra-red (NIR) dorsal hand geometry (HG)
shape and (Rt/Lt) index and ring fingerprints (FP). Database of 100
volunteers were acquired using the designed prototype. The acquired
images were found to have good quality for all features and patterns
extraction to all modalities. HG features based on the hand shape
anatomical landmarks were extracted. Robust and fast algorithms for
FP minutia points feature extraction and matching were used. Feature
vectors that belong to similar biometric traits were fused using
feature fusion methodologies. Scores obtained from different
biometric trait matchers were fused using the Min-Max
transformation-based score fusion technique. Final normalized scores
were merged using the sum of scores method to obtain a single
decision about the personal identity based on multiple independent
sources. High individuality of the fused traits and user acceptability
of the designed system along with its experimental high performance
biometric measures showed that this MMBS can be considered for
med-high security levels biometric identification purposes.
Abstract: Flash memory has become an important storage device
in many embedded systems because of its high performance, low
power consumption and shock resistance. Multi-level cell (MLC) is
developed as an effective solution for reducing the cost and increasing
the storage density in recent years. However, most of flash file system
cannot handle the error correction sufficiently. To correct more errors
for MLC, we implement Reed-Solomon (RS) code to YAFFS, what is
widely used for flash-based file system. RS code has longer computing
time but the correcting ability is much higher than that of Hamming
code.
Abstract: The Pads have unique values of thermophysical
properties (THP) having important contribution over heat transfer
into the PCB structure.
Materials with high thermal diffusivity (TD) rapidly adjust their
temperature to that of their surroundings, because the HT is quick in
compare to their volumetric heat capacity (VHC).
In the paper is presenting the diffusivity tests (ASTM E1461 flash
method) for PCBs with different core materials. In the experiments,
the multilayer structure of PCBA was taken into consideration, an
equivalent property referring to each of experimental structure be
practically measured.
Concerning to entire structure, the THP emphasize the major
contribution of substrate in establishing of reflow soldering process
(RSP) heat transfer necessities. This conclusion offer practical
solution for heat transfer time constant calculation as function of
thickness and substrate material diffusivity with an acceptable error
estimation.
Abstract: Phase error in communications systems degrades error
performance. In this paper, we present a simple approximation for the
average error probability of the binary phase shift keying (BPSK) in
the presence of phase error having a uniform distribution on arbitrary
intervals. For the simple approximation, we use symmetry and
periodicity of a sinusoidal function. Approximate result for the
average error probability is derived, and the performance is verified
through comparison with simulation result.
Abstract: Adapting wireless devices to communicate within grid
networks empowers us by providing range of possibilities.. These
devices create a mechanism for consumers and publishers to create
modern networks with or without peer device utilization. Emerging
mobile networks creates new challenges in the areas of reliability,
security, and adaptability. In this paper, we propose a system
encompassing mobility management using AAA context transfer for
mobile grid networks. This system ultimately results in seamless task
processing and reduced packet loss, communication delays,
bandwidth, and errors.
Abstract: Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) is one of the techniques for high speed data rate communication with main consideration for 4G and 5G systems. In OFDM, there are several mapping schemes which provide a way of parallel transmission. In this paper, comparisons of mapping schemes used by some standards have been made and also has been discussed about the performance of the non-conventional modulation technique. The Comparisons of Bit Error Rate (BER) performances for conventional and non-conventional modulation schemes have been done using MATLAB software. Mentioned schemes used in OFDM system can be selected on the basis of the requirement of power or spectrum efficiency and BER analysis.
Abstract: True stress-strain curve of railhead steel is required to
investigate the behaviour of railhead under wheel loading through elasto-plastic Finite Element (FE) analysis. To reduce the rate of wear, the railhead material is hardened through annealing and
quenching. The Australian standard rail sections are not fully hardened and hence suffer from non-uniform distribution of the
material property; usage of average properties in the FE modelling can potentially induce error in the predicted plastic strains. Coupons
obtained at varying depths of the railhead were, therefore, tested under axial tension and the strains were measured using strain gauges as well as an image analysis technique, known as the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The head hardened steel exhibit existence of three distinct zones of yield strength; the yield strength as the ratio of the average yield strength provided in the standard (σyr=780MPa) and
the corresponding depth as the ratio of the head hardened zone along
the axis of symmetry are as follows: (1.17 σyr, 20%), (1.06 σyr, 20%-80%) and (0.71 σyr, > 80%). The stress-strain curves exhibit limited plastic zone with fracture occurring at strain less than 0.1.
Abstract: The log periodogram regression is widely used in empirical
applications because of its simplicity, since only a least squares
regression is required to estimate the memory parameter, d, its good
asymptotic properties and its robustness to misspecification of the
short term behavior of the series. However, the asymptotic distribution
is a poor approximation of the (unknown) finite sample distribution
if the sample size is small. Here the finite sample performance of different
nonparametric residual bootstrap procedures is analyzed when
applied to construct confidence intervals. In particular, in addition to
the basic residual bootstrap, the local and block bootstrap that might
adequately replicate the structure that may arise in the errors of the
regression are considered when the series shows weak dependence in
addition to the long memory component. Bias correcting bootstrap
to adjust the bias caused by that structure is also considered. Finally,
the performance of the bootstrap in log periodogram regression based
confidence intervals is assessed in different type of models and how
its performance changes as sample size increases.
Abstract: Genome profiling (GP), a genotype based technology, which exploits random PCR and temperature gradient gel electrophoresis, has been successful in identification/classification of organisms. In this technology, spiddos (Species identification dots) and PaSS (Pattern similarity score) were employed for measuring the closeness (or distance) between genomes. Based on the closeness (PaSS), we can buildup phylogenetic trees of the organisms. We noticed that the topology of the tree is rather robust against the experimental fluctuation conveyed by spiddos. This fact was confirmed quantitatively in this study by computer-simulation, providing the limit of the reliability of this highly powerful methodology. As a result, we could demonstrate the effectiveness of the GP approach for identification/classification of organisms.
Abstract: This paper presents a comparison between Spectrum-
Sliced Wavelength Division Multiplexing (SS-WDM) and Spectrum
Amplitude Coding Optical Code Division Multiple Access (SAC
Optical CDMA) systems for different light sources. The performance
of the system is shown in the simulated results of the bit error rate
(BER) and the eye diagram of both systems. The comparison results
indicate that the Multiple Access Interference (MAI) effects have a
significant impact on SS-WDM over SAC Optical CDMA systems.
Finally, in terms of spectral efficiency at constant BER of 10-12, SSWDM
offers higher spectral efficiency than optical CDMA since no
bandwidth expansion in needed.
Abstract: The authors present an algorithm for order reduction of linear time invariant dynamic systems using the combined advantages of the eigen spectrum analysis and the error minimization by particle swarm optimization technique. Pole centroid and system stiffness of both original and reduced order systems remain same in this method to determine the poles, whereas zeros are synthesized by minimizing the integral square error in between the transient responses of original and reduced order models using particle swarm optimization technique, pertaining to a unit step input. It is shown that the algorithm has several advantages, e.g. the reduced order models retain the steady-state value and stability of the original system. The algorithm is illustrated with the help of two numerical examples and the results are compared with the other existing techniques.
Abstract: In this paper channel estimation techniques are
considered as the support methods for OFDM transmission systems
based on Non Binary LDPC (Low Density Parity Check) codes.
Standard frequency domain pilot aided LS (Least Squares) and
LMMSE (Linear Minimum Mean Square Error) estimators are
investigated. Furthermore, an iterative algorithm is proposed as a
solution exploiting the NB-LDPC channel decoder to improve the
performance of the LMMSE estimator. Simulation results of signals
transmitted through fading mobile channels are presented to compare
the performance of the proposed channel estimators.
Abstract: In contrast to existing methods which do not take into account multiconnectivity in a broad sense of this term, we develop mathematical models and highly effective combination (BIEM and FDM) numerical methods of calculation of stationary and quasistationary temperature field of a profile part of a blade with convective cooling (from the point of view of realization on PC). The theoretical substantiation of these methods is proved by appropriate theorems. For it, converging quadrature processes have been developed and the estimations of errors in the terms of A.Ziqmound continuity modules have been received. For visualization of profiles are used: the method of the least squares with automatic conjecture, device spline, smooth replenishment and neural nets. Boundary conditions of heat exchange are determined from the solution of the corresponding integral equations and empirical relationships. The reliability of designed methods is proved by calculation and experimental investigations heat and hydraulic characteristics of the gas turbine first stage nozzle blade.
Abstract: In this paper we present a novel error model for
packet loss and subsequent error description. The proposed model
simulates the error performance of wireless communication link. The
model is designed as two independent Markov chains, where the first
one is used for packet generation and the second one generates
correctly and incorrectly transmitted bits for received packets from
the first chain. The statistical analyses of real communication on the
wireless link are used for determination of model-s parameters. Using
the obtained parameters and the implementation of the generator, we
collected generated traffic. The obtained results generated by
proposed model are compared with the real data collection.
Abstract: Estimates of temperature values at a specific time of day, from daytime and daily profiles, are needed for a number of environmental, ecological, agricultural and technical applications, ranging from natural hazards assessments, crop growth forecasting to design of solar energy systems. The scope of this research is to investigate the efficiency of data mining techniques in estimating minimum, maximum and mean temperature values. For this reason, a number of experiments have been conducted with well-known regression algorithms using temperature data from the city of Patras in Greece. The performance of these algorithms has been evaluated using standard statistical indicators, such as Correlation Coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, etc.