Abstract: Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.
Abstract: In data-driven prognostic methods, the prediction
accuracy of the estimation for remaining useful life of bearings
mainly depends on the performance of health indicators, which
are usually fused some statistical features extracted from vibrating
signals. However, the existing health indicators have the following
two drawbacks: (1) The differnet ranges of the statistical features
have the different contributions to construct the health indicators,
the expert knowledge is required to extract the features. (2) When
convolutional neural networks are utilized to tackle time-frequency
features of signals, the time-series of signals are not considered.
To overcome these drawbacks, in this study, the method combining
convolutional neural network with gated recurrent unit is proposed to
extract the time-frequency image features. The extracted features are
utilized to construct health indicator and predict remaining useful life
of bearings. First, original signals are converted into time-frequency
images by using continuous wavelet transform so as to form the
original feature sets. Second, with convolutional and pooling layers
of convolutional neural networks, the most sensitive features of
time-frequency images are selected from the original feature sets.
Finally, these selected features are fed into the gated recurrent unit
to construct the health indicator. The results state that the proposed
method shows the enhance performance than the related studies which
have used the same bearing dataset provided by PRONOSTIA.
Abstract: Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) have been an interesting topic for most enthusiasts and hence people all over the United States report such findings online at the National UFO Report Center (NUFORC). Some of these reports are a hoax and among those that seem legitimate, our task is not to establish that these events confirm that they indeed are events related to flying objects from aliens in outer space. Rather, we intend to identify if the report was a hoax as was identified by the UFO database team with their existing curation criterion. However, the database provides a wealth of information that can be exploited to provide various analyses and insights such as social reporting, identifying real-time spatial events and much more. We perform analysis to localize these time-series geospatial events and correlate with known real-time events. This paper does not confirm any legitimacy of alien activity, but rather attempts to gather information from likely legitimate reports of UFOs by studying the online reports. These events happen in geospatial clusters and also are time-based. We look at cluster density and data visualization to search the space of various cluster realizations to decide best probable clusters that provide us information about the proximity of such activity. A random forest classifier is also presented that is used to identify true events and hoax events, using the best possible features available such as region, week, time-period and duration. Lastly, we show the performance of the scheme on various days and correlate with real-time events where one of the UFO reports strongly correlates to a missile test conducted in the United States.
Abstract: Autonomous vehicles offer the possibility of significant benefits to social welfare. However, fully automated cars might not be going to happen in the near further. To speed the adoption of the self-driving technologies, many governments worldwide are passing laws requiring data recorders for the testing of autonomous vehicles. Currently, the self-driving vehicle, (e.g., shuttle bus) has to be monitored from a remote control center. When an autonomous vehicle encounters an unexpected driving environment, such as road construction or an obstruction, it should request assistance from a remote operator. Nevertheless, large amounts of data, including images, radar and lidar data, etc., have to be transmitted from the vehicle to the remote center. Therefore, this paper proposes a data compression method of in-vehicle networks for remote monitoring of autonomous vehicles. Firstly, the time-series data are rearranged into a multi-dimensional signal space. Upon the arrival, for controller area networks (CAN), the new data are mapped onto a time-data two-dimensional space associated with the specific CAN identity. Secondly, the data are sampled based on differential sampling. Finally, the whole set of data are encoded using existing algorithms such as Huffman, arithmetic and codebook encoding methods. To evaluate system performance, the proposed method was deployed on an in-house built autonomous vehicle. The testing results show that the amount of data can be reduced as much as 1/7 compared to the raw data.
Abstract: The quality of press-fit assembly is closely related to
reliability and safety of product. The paper proposed a keypoint
detection method based on convolutional neural network to improve
the accuracy of keypoint detection in press-fit curve. It would
provide an auxiliary basis for judging quality of press-fit assembly.
The press-fit curve is a curve of press-fit force and displacement.
Both force data and distance data are time-series data. Therefore,
one-dimensional convolutional neural network is used to process
the press-fit curve. After the obtained press-fit data is filtered, the
multi-layer one-dimensional convolutional neural network is used to
perform the automatic learning of press-fit curve features, and then
sent to the multi-layer perceptron to finally output keypoint of the
curve. We used the data of press-fit assembly equipment in the actual
production process to train CNN model, and we used different data
from the same equipment to evaluate the performance of detection.
Compared with the existing research result, the performance of
detection was significantly improved. This method can provide a
reliable basis for the judgment of press-fit quality.
Abstract: The present study investigates the space-time impact of climate change on the rice crop calendar in tropical Gujranwala, Pakistan. The climate change impact was quantified through the climatic variables, whereas the existing calendar of the rice crop was compared with the phonological stages of the crop, depicted through the time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data for the decade 2005-2015. Local maxima were applied on the time series of NDVI to compute the rice phonological stages. Panel models with fixed and cross-section fixed effects were used to establish the relation between the climatic parameters and the time-series of NDVI across villages and across rice growing periods. Results show that the climatic parameters have significant impact on the rice crop calendar. Moreover, the fixed effect model is a significant improvement over cross-sectional fixed effect models (R-squared equal to 0.673 vs. 0.0338). We conclude that high inter-annual variability of climatic variables cause high variability of NDVI, and thus, a shift in the rice crop calendar. Moreover, inter-annual (temporal) variability of the rice crop calendar is high compared to the inter-village (spatial) variability. We suggest the local rice farmers to adapt this change in the rice crop calendar.
Abstract: In terms of ITS, information on link characteristic is an essential factor for plan or operation. But in practical cases, not every link has installed sensors on it. The link that does not have data on it is called “Missing Link”. The purpose of this study is to impute data of these missing links. To get these data, this study applies the machine learning method. With the machine learning process, especially for the deep learning process, missing link data can be estimated from present link data. For deep learning process, this study uses “Recurrent Neural Network” to take time-series data of road. As input data, Dedicated Short-range Communications (DSRC) data of Dalgubul-daero of Daegu Metropolitan Area had been fed into the learning process. Neural Network structure has 17 links with present data as input, 2 hidden layers, for 1 missing link data. As a result, forecasted data of target link show about 94% of accuracy compared with actual data.
Abstract: The effectiveness of energy demand policy depends on identifying the key drivers of energy demand both in the short-run and the long-run. This paper examines the influence of regional differences on the link between energy demand and other explanatory variables for Nigeria, China and USA using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. This study employed annual time series data on energy consumption (ED), real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (RGDP), real energy prices (P) and urbanization (N) for a thirty-six-year sample period. The utilized time-series data are sourced from World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI, 2016) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Results from the study, shows that all the independent variables (income, urbanization, and price) substantially affect the long-run energy consumption in Nigeria, USA and China, whereas, income has no significant effect on short-run energy demand in USA and Nigeria. In addition, the long-run effect of urbanization is relatively stronger in China. Urbanization is a key factor in energy demand, it therefore recommended that more attention should be given to the development of rural communities to reduce the inflow of migrants into urban communities which causes the increase in energy demand and energy excesses should be penalized while energy management should be incentivized.
Abstract: Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.
Abstract: Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a new
data-driven of time-series decomposition, has the advantage of
supposing that a time series is non-linear or non-stationary, as
is implicitly achieved in Fourier decomposition. However, the
EMD suffers of mode mixing problem in some cases. The aim of
this paper is to present a solution for a common type of signals
causing of EMD mode mixing problem, in case a signal suffers
of an intermittency. By an artificial example, the solution shows
superior performance in terms of cope EMD mode mixing problem
comparing with the conventional EMD and Ensemble Empirical
Mode decomposition (EEMD). Furthermore, the over-sifting problem
is also completely avoided; and computation load is reduced roughly
six times compared with EEMD, an ensemble number of 50.
Abstract: Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the
Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed
in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be
model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series
data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change
in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable
false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy
and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result,
the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain
uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we
present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a.
Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of
representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change
detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses.
Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity
metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current
distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass
functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to
combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied
the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to
combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative
sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect
and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation
results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental
setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.
Abstract: This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.
Abstract: Acreage response function are modeled taking account of expected harvest prices, weather related variables and other non-price variables allowing for partial adjustment possibility. At the outset, based on the literature on price expectation formation, we explored suitable formulations for estimating the farmer’s expected prices. Assuming that farmers form expectations rationally, the prices of food and biofuel crops are modeled using time-series methods for possible ARCH/GARCH effects to account for volatility. The prices projected on the basis of the models are then inserted to proxy for the expected prices in the acreage response functions. Food crop acreages in different growing states are found sensitive to their prices relative to those of one or more of the biofuel crops considered. The required percentage improvement in food crop yields is worked to offset the acreage loss.
Abstract: The research investigates the causes of unemployment
in Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa and the role of Capital
Accumulation in reducing the unemployment profile of these
economies as proposed by the post-Keynesian economics. This is
conducted through extensive review of literature on the NAIRU
models and focused on the post-Keynesian view of unemployment
within the NAIRU framework. The NAIRU (non-accelerating
inflation rate of unemployment) model has become a dominant
framework used in macroeconomic analysis of unemployment. The
study views the post-Keynesian economics arguments that capital
accumulation is a major determinant of unemployment.
Unemployment remains the fundamental socio-economic challenge
facing African economies. It has been a burden to citizens of those
economies. Namibia, Nigeria, and South Africa are great African
nations battling with high unemployment rates. The high
unemployment rate in the country led the citizens to chase away
foreigners in the country claiming that they have taken away their
jobs. The study proposes there is a strong relationship between
capital accumulation and unemployment in Namibia, Nigeria, and
South Africa, and capital accumulation is responsible for high
unemployment rates in these countries. For the economies to achieve
steady state level of employment and satisfactory level of economic
growth and development, there is need for capital accumulation to
take place. The countries in the study have been selected after a
critical research and investigations. They are selected based on the
following criteria; African economies with high unemployment rates
above 15% and have about 40% of their workforce unemployed. This
level of unemployment is the critical level of unemployment in
Africa as expressed by International Labour Organization (ILO). And
finally, the African countries experience a slow growth in their Gross
fixed capital formation. Adequate statistical measures have been
employed using a time-series analysis in the study and the results
revealed that capital accumulation is the main driver of
unemployment performance in the chosen African countries. An
increase in the accumulation of capital causes unemployment to
reduce significantly. The results of the research work will be useful
and relevant to federal governments and ministries, departments and
agencies (MDAs) of Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa to resolve
the issue of high and persistent unemployment rates in their
economies which are great burden that slows growth and
development of developing economies. Also, the result can be useful
to World Bank, African Development Bank and International Labour
Organization (ILO) in their further research and studies on how to
tackle unemployment in developing and emerging economies.
Abstract: This study investigates the use of a time-series of
MODIS NDVI data to identify agricultural land cover change on an
annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend. Following
an ISODATA classification of the MODIS imagery to selectively
mask areas not agriculture or semi-natural, NDVI signatures were
created to identify areas cereals and vineyards with the aid of
ancillary, pictometry and field sample data for 2010. The NDVI
signature curve and training samples were used to create a decision
tree model in WEKA 3.6.9 using decision tree classifier (J48)
algorithm; Model 1 including ISODATA classification and Model 2
not. These two models were then used to classify all data for the
study area for 2010, producing land cover maps with classification
accuracies of 77% and 80% for Model 1 and 2 respectively. Model 2
was subsequently used to create land cover classification and change
detection maps for all other years. Subtle changes and areas of
consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes
and crop practices. Over the years as predicted by the land cover
classification. Forty one percent of the catchment comprised of
cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system.
Vineyards largely remained constant with only one percent
conversion to vineyard from other land cover classes.
Abstract: In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series
for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by
various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of
rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in
modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter
models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the
models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give
information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the
proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water
resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained
the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA
Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.
Abstract: This paper deals the energy saving performance of GHP (Gas engine heat pump) air conditioning system has improved with time-series variation. There are two types of air conditioning systems, VRF (Variable refrigerant flow) and central cooling and heating system. VRF is classified as EHP (Electric driven heat pump) and GHP. EHP drives the compressor with electric motor. GHP drives the compressor with the gas engine. The electric consumption of GHP is less than one tenth of EHP does.
In this study, the energy consumption data of GHP installed the junior high schools was collected. An annual and monthly energy consumption per rated thermal output power of each apparatus was calculated, and then their energy efficiency was analyzed. From these data, we investigated improvement of the energy saving of the GHP air conditioning system by the change in the generation.
Abstract: In this paper we propose and examine an Adaptive
Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in Smoothing Transition
Autoregressive (STAR) modeling. Because STAR models follow
fuzzy logic approach, in the non-linear part fuzzy rules can be
incorporated or other training or computational methods can be
applied as the error backpropagation algorithm instead to nonlinear
squares. Furthermore, additional fuzzy membership functions can be
examined, beside the logistic and exponential, like the triangle,
Gaussian and Generalized Bell functions among others. We examine
two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and
the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.
Abstract: Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic metabolic disorder, where the improper management of the blood glucose level in the diabetic patients will lead to the risk of heart attack, kidney disease and renal failure. This paper attempts to enhance the diagnostic accuracy of the advancing blood glucose levels of the diabetic patients, by combining principal component analysis and wavelet neural network. The proposed system makes separate blood glucose prediction in the morning, afternoon, evening and night intervals, using dataset from one patient covering a period of 77 days. Comparisons of the diagnostic accuracy with other neural network models, which use the same dataset are made. The comparison results showed overall improved accuracy, which indicates the effectiveness of this proposed system.
Abstract: Entrepreneurship has become an important and
extensively researched concept in business studies. Research on
foreign direct investment (FDI) has become widespread due to the
growth of FDI and its importance in globalization. Most
entrepreneurship studies examined the importance and influence of
entrepreneurial orientation in a micro-level context. On the other
hand, studies and research concerning FDI used statistical techniques
to analyze the effect, determinants, and motives of FDI on a
macroeconomic level, ignoring empirical studies on other noneconomic
determinants. In order to bridge the gap between the theory
and empirical evidence on FDI and the theory and research on
entrepreneurship, this study examines the impact of entrepreneurship
on inward foreign direct investment. The relationship between
entrepreneurship and foreign direct investment is investigated
through regression analysis of pooled time-series and cross-sectional
data. The results suggest that entrepreneurship has a significant effect
on FDI.