Abstract: This paper deals with econometric analysis of real
retail trade turnover. It is a part of an extensive scientific research
about modern trends in Croatian national economy. At the end of the
period of transition economy, Croatia confronts with challenges and
problems of high consumption society. In such environment as
crucial economic variables: real retail trade turnover, average
monthly real wages and household loans are chosen for consequence
analysis. For the purpose of complete procedure of multiple
econometric analysis data base adjustment has been provided.
Namely, it has been necessary to deflate original national statistics
data of retail trade turnover using consumer price indices, as well as
provide process of seasonally adjustment of its contemporary
behavior. In model establishment it has been necessary to involve the
overcoming procedure for the autocorrelation and colinearity
problems. Moreover, for case of time-series shift a specific
appropriate econometric instrument has been applied. It would be
emphasize that the whole methodology procedure is based on the real
Croatian national economy time-series.
Abstract: The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes
requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work
established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a
suitable tool for developing such models. The current research
focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction
error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in
training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an
observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in
each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used
in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at
hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model,
consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters,
was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and
calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks
for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms,
up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of
processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced
average prediction error compared to previous research across all
horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or
12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12
hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively,
improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these
horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different
initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These
results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider
instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial
weights to establish preferred model parameters.
Abstract: In this paper real money demand function is analyzed
within multivariate time-series framework. Cointegration approach is
used (Johansen procedure) assuming interdependence between
money demand determinants, which are nonstationary variables. This
will help us to understand the behavior of money demand in Croatia,
revealing the significant influence between endogenous variables in
vector autoregrression system (VAR), i.e. vector error correction
model (VECM). Exogeneity of the explanatory variables is tested.
Long-run money demand function is estimated indicating slow speed
of adjustment of removing the disequilibrium. Empirical results
provide the evidence that real industrial production and exchange
rate explains the most variations of money demand in the long-run,
while interest rate is significant only in short-run.
Abstract: In this paper we present, propose and examine
additional membership functions for the Smoothing Transition
Autoregressive (STAR) models. More specifically, we present the
tangent hyperbolic, Gaussian and Generalized bell functions.
Because Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models
follow fuzzy logic approach, more fuzzy membership functions
should be tested. Furthermore, fuzzy rules can be incorporated or
other training or computational methods can be applied as the error
backpropagation or genetic algorithm instead to nonlinear squares.
We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the
inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.
Abstract: Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM) functional
Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) is a promising technique to
study the connectivity among brain regions and effects of stimuli
through modeling neuronal interactions from time-series
neuroimaging. The aim of this study is to study characteristics of a
mirror neuron system (MNS) in elderly group (age: 60-70 years old).
Twenty volunteers were MRI scanned with visual stimuli to study a
functional brain network. DCM was employed to determine the
mechanism of mirror neuron effects. The results revealed major
activated areas including precentral gyrus, inferior parietal lobule,
inferior occipital gyrus, and supplementary motor area. When visual
stimuli were presented, the feed-forward connectivity from visual
area to conjunction area was increased and forwarded to motor area.
Moreover, the connectivity from the conjunction areas to premotor
area was also increased. Such findings can be useful for future
diagnostic process for elderly with diseases such as Parkinson-s and
Alzheimer-s.
Abstract: In this study, the locations and areas of commercial
accumulations were detected by using digital yellow page data. An
original buffering method that can accurately create polygons of
commercial accumulations is proposed in this paper.; by using this
method, distribution of commercial accumulations can be easily
created and monitored over a wide area. The locations, areas, and
time-series changes of commercial accumulations in the South Kanto
region can be monitored by integrating polygons of commercial
accumulations with the time-series data of digital yellow page data.
The circumstances of commercial accumulations were shown to vary
according to areas, that is, highly- urbanized regions such as the city
center of Tokyo and prefectural capitals, suburban areas near large
cities, and suburban and rural areas.
Abstract: Partitioning is a critical area of VLSI CAD. In order to build complex digital logic circuits its often essential to sub-divide multi -million transistor design into manageable Pieces. This paper looks at the various partitioning techniques aspects of VLSI CAD, targeted at various applications. We proposed an evolutionary time-series model and a statistical glitch prediction system using a neural network with selection of global feature by making use of clustering method model, for partitioning a circuit. For evolutionary time-series model, we made use of genetic, memetic & neuro-memetic techniques. Our work focused in use of clustering methods - K-means & EM methodology. A comparative study is provided for all techniques to solve the problem of circuit partitioning pertaining to VLSI design. The performance of all approaches is compared using benchmark data provided by MCNC standard cell placement benchmark net lists. Analysis of the investigational results proved that the Neuro-memetic model achieves greater performance then other model in recognizing sub-circuits with minimum amount of interconnections between them.
Abstract: The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. An improved model for temperature prediction in Georgia was developed by including information on seasonality and modifying parameters of an existing artificial neural network model. Alternative models were compared by instantiating and training multiple networks for each model. The inclusion of up to 24 hours of prior weather information and inputs reflecting the day of year were among improvements that reduced average four-hour prediction error by 0.18°C compared to the prior model. Results strongly suggest model developers should instantiate and train multiple networks with different initial weights to establish appropriate model parameters.
Abstract: In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.
Abstract: The problem of estimating time-varying regression is
inevitably concerned with the necessity to choose the appropriate
level of model volatility - ranging from the full stationarity of instant
regression models to their absolute independence of each other. In the
stationary case the number of regression coefficients to be estimated
equals that of regressors, whereas the absence of any smoothness
assumptions augments the dimension of the unknown vector by the
factor of the time-series length. The Akaike Information Criterion
is a commonly adopted means of adjusting a model to the given
data set within a succession of nested parametric model classes,
but its crucial restriction is that the classes are rigidly defined by
the growing integer-valued dimension of the unknown vector. To
make the Kullback information maximization principle underlying the
classical AIC applicable to the problem of time-varying regression
estimation, we extend it onto a wider class of data models in which
the dimension of the parameter is fixed, but the freedom of its values
is softly constrained by a family of continuously nested a priori
probability distributions.
Abstract: This study applies the sequential panel selection
method (SPSM) procedure proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios
(2009) to investigate the time-series properties of energy
consumption in 50 US states from 1963 to 2009. SPSM involves the
classification of the entire panel into a group of stationary series and
a group of non-stationary series to identify how many and which
series in the panel are stationary processes. Empirical results obtained
through SPSM with the panel KSS unit root test developed by Ucar
and Omay (2009) combined with a Fourier function indicate that
energy consumption in all the 50 US states are stationary. The results
of this study have important policy implications for the 50 US states.
Abstract: The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) represents any time series into a finite set of basis functions. The bases are termed as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) which are mutually orthogonal containing minimum amount of cross-information. The EMD successively extracts the IMFs with the highest local frequencies in a recursive way, which yields effectively a set low-pass filters based entirely on the properties exhibited by the data. In this paper, EMD is applied to explore the properties of the multi-year air temperature and to observe its effects on climate change under global warming. This method decomposes the original time-series into intrinsic time scale. It is capable of analyzing nonlinear, non-stationary climatic time series that cause problems to many linear statistical methods and their users. The analysis results show that the mode of EMD presents seasonal variability. The most of the IMFs have normal distribution and the energy density distribution of the IMFs satisfies Chi-square distribution. The IMFs are more effective in isolating physical processes of various time-scales and also statistically significant. The analysis results also show that the EMD method provides a good job to find many characteristics on inter annual climate. The results suggest that climate fluctuations of every single element such as temperature are the results of variations in the global atmospheric circulation.