Abstract: A model was constructed to predict the amount of
solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in
a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported
by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during
a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce
energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal
function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to
estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized
measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia
weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and
training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with
a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation
algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In
addition, a modeled direct normal irradiance field and adjacent
weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later
trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete
wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the
measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar
radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts
are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.
Abstract: The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes
requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work
established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a
suitable tool for developing such models. The current research
focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction
error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in
training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an
observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in
each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used
in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at
hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model,
consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters,
was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and
calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks
for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms,
up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of
processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced
average prediction error compared to previous research across all
horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or
12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12
hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively,
improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these
horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different
initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These
results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider
instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial
weights to establish preferred model parameters.
Abstract: The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. An improved model for temperature prediction in Georgia was developed by including information on seasonality and modifying parameters of an existing artificial neural network model. Alternative models were compared by instantiating and training multiple networks for each model. The inclusion of up to 24 hours of prior weather information and inputs reflecting the day of year were among improvements that reduced average four-hour prediction error by 0.18°C compared to the prior model. Results strongly suggest model developers should instantiate and train multiple networks with different initial weights to establish appropriate model parameters.