Abstract: A model was constructed to predict the amount of
solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in
a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported
by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during
a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce
energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal
function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to
estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized
measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia
weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and
training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with
a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation
algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In
addition, a modeled direct normal irradiance field and adjacent
weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later
trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete
wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the
measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar
radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts
are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.
Abstract: In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.
Abstract: Time series forecasting is an important and widely
popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper
describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning
approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO
algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the
proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the
consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL)
approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance
is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster
than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the
well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the
experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in
time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better
than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent
prediction performance by the proposed approach has been
observed.