Abstract: This study investigates the use of a time-series of
MODIS NDVI data to identify agricultural land cover change on an
annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend. Following
an ISODATA classification of the MODIS imagery to selectively
mask areas not agriculture or semi-natural, NDVI signatures were
created to identify areas cereals and vineyards with the aid of
ancillary, pictometry and field sample data for 2010. The NDVI
signature curve and training samples were used to create a decision
tree model in WEKA 3.6.9 using decision tree classifier (J48)
algorithm; Model 1 including ISODATA classification and Model 2
not. These two models were then used to classify all data for the
study area for 2010, producing land cover maps with classification
accuracies of 77% and 80% for Model 1 and 2 respectively. Model 2
was subsequently used to create land cover classification and change
detection maps for all other years. Subtle changes and areas of
consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes
and crop practices. Over the years as predicted by the land cover
classification. Forty one percent of the catchment comprised of
cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system.
Vineyards largely remained constant with only one percent
conversion to vineyard from other land cover classes.