Development of an Automatic Calibration Framework for Hydrologic Modelling Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Experimental Verification of the Relationship between Physiological Indexes and the Presence or Absence of an Operation during E-learning

An experiment to verify the relationships between physiological indexes of an e-learner and the presence or absence of an operation during e-learning is described. Electroencephalogram (EEG), hemoencephalography (HEG), skin conductance (SC), and blood volume pulse (BVP) values were measured while participants performed experimental learning tasks. The results show that there are significant differences between the SC values when reading with clicking on learning materials and the SC values when reading without clicking, and between the HEG ratio when reading (with and without clicking) and the HEG ratio when resting for four of five participants. We conclude that the SC signals can be used to estimate whether or not a learner is performing an active task and that the HEG ratios can be used to estimate whether a learner is learning.

Effects of Upstream Wall Roughness on Separated Turbulent Flow over a Forward Facing Step in an Open Channel

The effect of upstream surface roughness over a smooth forward facing step in an open channel was investigated using a particle image velocimetry technique. Three different upstream surface topographies consisting of hydraulically smooth wall, sandpaper 36 grit and sand grains were examined. Besides the wall roughness conditions, all other upstream flow characteristics were kept constant. It was also observed that upstream roughness decreased the approach velocity by 2% and 10% but increased the turbulence intensity by 14% and 35% at the wall-normal distance corresponding to the top plane of the step compared to smooth upstream. The results showed that roughness decreased the reattachment lengths by 14% and 30% compared to smooth upstream. Although the magnitudes of maximum positive and negative Reynolds shear stress in separated and reattached region were 0.02Ue for all the cases, the physical size of both the maximum and minimum contour levels were decreased by increasing upstream roughness.

Energy Saving of the Paint with Mineral Insulators: Simulation and Study on Different Climates

By using an adequate thermal barrier coating in buildings the energy saving will be happened. In this study, a range of wall paints with different absorption coefficient in different climates has been investigated. In order to study these effects, heating and cooling loads of a common building with different ordinary paints and paint with mineral coating have been calculated. The effect of building paint in different climatic condition was studied and comparison was done between ordinary paints and paint with mineral insulators in temperate climate to obtain optimized energy consumption. The results have been shown that coatings with inorganic micro particles as insulation reduce the energy consumption of buildings around 14%.

Levels of Students’ Understandings of Electric Field Due to a Continuous Charged Distribution: A Case Study of a Uniformly Charged Insulating Rod

Electric field is an important fundamental concept in electrostatics. In high-school, generally Thai students have already learned about definition of electric field, electric field due to a point charge, and superposition of electric fields due to multiple-point charges. Those are the prerequisite basic knowledge students holding before entrancing universities. In the first-year university level, students will be quickly revised those basic knowledge and will be then introduced to a more complicated topic—electric field due to continuous charged distributions. We initially found that our freshman students, who were from the Faculty of Science and enrolled in the introductory physic course (SCPY 158), often seriously struggled with the basic physics concepts—superposition of electric fields and inverse square law and mathematics being relevant to this topic. These also then resulted on students’ understanding of advanced topics within the course such as Gauss's law, electric potential difference, and capacitance. Therefore, it is very important to determine students' understanding of electric field due to continuous charged distributions. The open-ended question about sketching net electric field vectors from a uniformly charged insulating rod was administered to 260 freshman science students as pre- and post-tests. All of their responses were analyzed and classified into five levels of understandings. To get deep understanding of each level, 30 students were interviewed toward their individual responses. The pre-test result found was that about 90% of students had incorrect understanding. Even after completing the lectures, there were only 26.5% of them could provide correct responses. Up to 50% had confusions and irrelevant ideas. The result implies that teaching methods in Thai high schools may be problematic. In addition for our benefit, these students’ alternative conceptions identified could be used as a guideline for developing the instructional method currently used in the course especially for teaching electrostatics.

Thermal Analysis of Photovoltaic Integrated Greenhouse Solar Dryer

Present study focused on the utilization of solar energy by the help of photovoltaic greenhouse solar dryer under forced mode. A single slope photovoltaic greenhouse solar dryer has been proposed and thermal modelling has been developed. Various parameters have been calculated by thermal modelling such as greenhouse room temperature, cell temperature, crop temperature and air temperature at exit of greenhouse. Further cell efficiency, thermal efficiency, and overall thermal efficiency have been calculated for a typical day of May and November. It was found that system can generate equivalent thermal energy up to 7.65 kW and 6.66 kW per day for clear day of May and November respectively.

Reducing Pressure Drop in Microscale Channel Using Constructal Theory

The effectiveness of microchannels in enhancing heat transfer has been demonstrated in the semiconductor industry. In order to tap the microscale heat transfer effects into macro geometries, overcoming the cost and technological constraints, microscale passages were created in macro geometries machined using conventional fabrication methods. A cylindrical insert was placed within a pipe, and geometrical profiles were created on the outer surface of the insert to enhance heat transfer under steady-state single-phase liquid flow conditions. However, while heat transfer coefficient values of above 10 kW/m2·K were achieved, the heat transfer enhancement was accompanied by undesirable pressure drop increment. Therefore, this study aims to address the high pressure drop issue using Constructal theory, a universal design law for both animate and inanimate systems. Two designs based on Constructal theory were developed to study the effectiveness of Constructal features in reducing the pressure drop increment as compared to parallel channels, which are commonly found in microchannel fabrication. The hydrodynamic and heat transfer performance for the Tree insert and Constructal fin (Cfin) insert were studied using experimental methods, and the underlying mechanisms were substantiated by numerical results. In technical terms, the objective is to achieve at least comparable increment in both heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop, if not higher increment in the former parameter. Results show that the Tree insert improved the heat transfer performance by more than 16 percent at low flow rates, as compared to the Tree-parallel insert. However, the heat transfer enhancement reduced to less than 5 percent at high Reynolds numbers. On the other hand, the pressure drop increment stayed almost constant at 20 percent. This suggests that the Tree insert has better heat transfer performance in the low Reynolds number region. More importantly, the Cfin insert displayed improved heat transfer performance along with favourable hydrodynamic performance, as compared to Cfinparallel insert, at all flow rates in this study. At 2 L/min, the enhancement of heat transfer was more than 30 percent, with 20 percent pressure drop increment, as compared to Cfin-parallel insert. Furthermore, comparable increment in both heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop was observed at 8 L/min. In other words, the Cfin insert successfully achieved the objective of this study. Analysis of the results suggests that bifurcation of flows is effective in reducing the increment in pressure drop relative to heat transfer enhancement. Optimising the geometries of the Constructal fins is therefore the potential future study in achieving a bigger stride in energy efficiency at much lower costs.

Investigation of Utilization Possibility of Fluid Gas Desulfurization Waste for Industrial Waste Water Treatment

Flue gas desulfurization gypsum (FGD) is a waste material arouse from coal power plants. Hydroxyapatite (HAP) is a biomaterial with porous structure. In this study, FGD gypsum which retrieved from coal power plant in Turkey was characterized and HAP particles which can be used as an adsorbent in wastewater treatment application were synthesized from the FGD gypsum. The raw materials are characterized by using X Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) techniques and produced HAP are characterized by using XRD. As a result, HAP particles were synthesized at the molar ratio of 5:10, 5:15, 5:20, 5:24, at room temperature, in alkaline medium (pH=11) and in 1 hour-reaction time. Among these conditions, 5:20 had the best result.

Augmented Reality in Advertising and Brand Communication: An Experimental Study

Digital technologies offer many opportunities in the design and implementation of brand communication and advertising. Augmented reality (AR) is an innovative technology in marketing communication that focuses on the fact that virtual interaction with a product ad offers additional value to consumers. AR enables consumers to obtain (almost) real product experiences by the way of virtual information even before the purchase of a certain product. Aim of AR applications in relation with advertising is in-depth examination of product characteristics to enhance product knowledge as well as brand knowledge. Interactive design of advertising provides observers with an intense examination of a specific advertising message and therefore leads to better brand knowledge. The elaboration likelihood model and the central route to persuasion strongly support this argumentation. Nevertheless, AR in brand communication is still in an initial stage and therefore scientific findings about the impact of AR on information processing and brand attitude are rare. The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the potential of AR applications in combination with traditional print advertising. To that effect an experimental design with different levels of interactivity is built to measure the impact of interactivity of an ad on different variables o advertising effectiveness.

Optical Repeater Assisted Visible Light Device-to-Device Communications

Device-to-device (D2D) communication is considered a promising technique to provide wireless peer-to-peer communication services. Due to increasing demand on mobile services, available spectrum for radio frequency (RF) based communications becomes scarce. Recently, visible light communications (VLC) has evolved as a high speed wireless data transmission technology for indoor environments with abundant available bandwidth. In this paper, a novel VLC based D2D communication that provides wireless peer-to-peer communication is proposed. Potential low operating power devices for an efficient D2D communication over increasing distance of separation between devices is analyzed. Optical repeaters (OR) are also proposed to enhance the performance in an environment where direct D2D communications yield degraded performance. Simulation results show that VLC plays an important role in providing efficient D2D communication up to a distance of 1 m between devices. It is also found that the OR significantly improves the coverage distance up to 3.5 m.

Adaptation Actions in Companies as Theoretical and Practical Aspects: A Case Study of a Food Ingredients and Additives Producer

The aim of this article is to identify the measures companies undertake in order to adapt to the environment as well as discussing their diversity and effectiveness. The research methods used in the study include an in-depth analysis of the literature and a case study, which helps to illustrate the issue in question. Referring to the concept of agility, which is firmly embedded in the theory of strategic management and has been developed with the aim of adapting to the environment and its changes, the paper first examines different types of adaptation measures for companies. Then the issue under discussion is illustrated with the example of the company Hortimex. This company is an eminent representative of the world’s leading manufacturers of food additives and ingredients. The company was established in 1988 and is a family business, which in practice means that it conducts business in a responsible manner, observing the law and respecting the interests of society and the environment. The company’s mission is to develop a market in Poland for the products and solutions offered by their partners and to share their knowledge of additives in food production and consumption.

A Numerical and Experimental Analysis of the Performance of a Combined Solar Unit for Air Conditioning and Water Desalination

In this paper, a desiccant solar unit for air conditioning and desalination is presented first. Secondly, a dynamic modelling study of the desiccant wheel is developed. After that, a simulation study and an experimental investigation of the behaviour of desiccant wheel are developed. The experimental investigation is done in the chamber of commerce in Freiburg-Germany. Indeed, the variations of calculated and measured temperatures and specific humidity of dehumidified and rejected air are presented where a good agreement is found when comparing the model predictions with experimental data under the considered range of operating conditions. Finally, the study of the compartments of desalination and water condensation shows that the unit can produce an acceptable quantity of water at the same time of the air conditioning operation.

Computing Transition Intensity Using Time-Homogeneous Markov Jump Process: Case of South African HIV/AIDS Disposition

This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Evaluation of PTFE Composites with Mineral Tailing Considering Friction, Wear and Cost

The tribological test with Pin-On-Disc configuration measures friction and wear properties in dry or lubricated sliding surfaces of a variety of materials and coatings. Polymeric matrix composites loaded with mineral filler were used, 1%, 3%, 10%, 30%, and 50% mass percentage of filler, to reduce the material cost by using mineral tailings. Using a pin-on-disc tribometer to quantify coefficient of friction and wear resistance of the specimens. The parameters known to performing the test were 300 rpm rotation, normal load of 16N and duration of 33.5 minutes. The composite with 10% mineral filler performed better, considering that the wear resistance was good when compared to the other compositions and an average low coefficient of friction, in the order of μ ≤ 0.15.

Energy Strategy and Economic Growth of Russia

This article considers the problems of economic growth and Russian energy strategy. Also in this paper, the issues related to the economic growth prospects of Russian were discussed. Russian energy strategy without standing Russia`s stature in global energy markets, at the current production and extraction rates, will not be able to sustain its own production as well as fulfil its energy strategy. Indeed, Russia’s energy sector suffers from a chronic lack of investments which are necessary to modernize its energy supply system. In recent years, especially since the international financial crisis, Russia-EU energy cooperation has made substantive progress. Recently the break-through progress has been made, resulting mainly from long-term contributing factors between the countries and recent international economic and political situation changes. Analytical material presented in the article is intended for a more detailed or substantive analysis related to foreign economic relations of the countries and Russia as well.

Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Mg-Zn Alloys

Effect of Zn addition on the microstructure and mechanical properties of Mg-Zn alloys with Zn contents from 6 to 10 weight percent was investigated in this study. Through calculation of phase equilibria of Mg-Zn alloys, carried out by using FactSage® and FTLite database, solution treatment temperature was decided as temperatures from 300 to 400oC, where supersaturated solid solution can be obtained. Solid solution treatment of Mg-Zn alloys was successfully conducted at 380oC and supersaturated microstructure with all beta phase resolved into matrix was obtained. After solution treatment, hot rolling was successfully conducted by reduction of 60%. Compression and tension tests were carried out at room temperature on the samples as-cast, solution treated, hot-rolled and recrystallized after rolling. After solid solution treatment, each alloy was annealed at temperatures of 180 and 200oC for time intervals from 1 min to 48 hrs and hardness of each condition was measured by micro-Vickers method. Peak aging conditions were deduced as at the temperature of 200oC for 10 hrs. By addition of Zn by 10 weight percent, hardness and strength were enhanced.

Optical and Double Folding Model Analysis for Alpha Particles Elastically Scattered from 9Be and 11B Nuclei at Different Energies

Elastic scattering of α-particles from 9Be and 11B nuclei at different alpha energies have been analyzed. Optical model parameters (OMPs) of α-particles elastic scattering by these nuclei at different energies have been obtained. In the present calculations, the real part of the optical potential are derived by folding of nucleonnucleon (NN) interaction into nuclear matter density distribution of the projectile and target nuclei using computer code FRESCO. A density-dependent version of the M3Y interaction (CDM3Y6), which is based on the G-matrix elements of the Paris NN potential, has been used. Volumetric integrals of the real and imaginary potential depth (JR, JW) have been calculated and found to be energy dependent. Good agreement between the experimental data and the theoretical predictions in the whole angular range. In double folding (DF) calculations, the obtained normalization coefficient Nr is in the range 0.70–1.32.

Role of Community Youths in Conservation of Forests and Protected Areas of Bangladesh

Community living adjacent to forests and Protected Areas, especially in South Asian countries, have a common practice in extracting resources for their living and livelihoods. This extraction of resources, because the way it is done, destroys the biophysical features of the area. Deforestation, wildlife poaching, illegal logging, unauthorized hill cutting etc. are some of the serious issues of concern for the sustainability of the natural resources that has a direct impact on environment and climate as a whole. To ensure community involvement in conservation initiatives of the state, community based forest management, commonly known as Comanagement, has been in practice in 6 South Asian countries. These are -India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Involving community in forestry management was initiated first in Bangladesh in 1979 and reached as an effective co-management approach through a several paradigm shifts. This idea of Comanagement has been institutionalized through a Government Order (GO) by the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of Bangladesh on November 23, 2009. This GO clearly defines the structure and functions of Co-management and its different bodies. Bangladesh Forest Department has been working in association with community to conserve and manage the Forests and Protected areas of Bangladesh following this legal document. Demographically young people constitute the largest segment of population in Bangladesh. This group, if properly sensitized, can produce valuable impacts on the conservation initiatives, both by community and government. This study traced the major factors that motivate community youths to work effectively with different tiers of comanagement organizations in conservation of forests and Protected Areas of Bangladesh. For the purpose of this study, 3 FGDs were conducted with 30 youths from the community living around the Protected Areas of Cox’s bazar, South East corner of Bangladesh, who are actively involved in Co-management organizations. KII were conducted with 5 key officials of Forest Department stationed at Cox’s Bazar. 2 FGDs were conducted with the representatives of 7 Co-management organizations working in Cox’s Bazar region and approaches of different community outreach activities conducted for forest conservation by 3 private organizations and Projects have been reviewed. Also secondary literatures were reviewed for the history and evolution of Co-management in Bangladesh and six South Asian countries. This study found that innovative community outreach activities that are financed by public and private sectors involving youths and community as a whole have played a pivotal role in conservation of forests and Protected Areas of the region. This approach can be replicated in other regions of Bangladesh as well as other countries of South Asia where Co-Management exists in practice.

Performance Analysis of Modified Solar Water Heating System for Climatic Condition of Allahabad, India

Solar water heating is a thermodynamic process of heating water using sunlight with the help of solar water heater. Thus, solar water heater is a device used to harness solar energy. In this paper, a modified solar water heating system (MSWHS) has been proposed over flat plate collector (FPC) and Evacuated tube collector (ETC). The modifications include selection of materials other than glass, and glass wool which are conventionally used for fabricating FPC and ETC. Some modifications in design have also been proposed. Its collector is made of double layer of semi-cylindrical acrylic tubes and fibre reinforced plastic (FRP) insulation base. Water tank is made of double layer of acrylic sheet except base and north wall. FRP is used in base and north wall of the water tank. A concept of equivalent thickness has been utilised for calculating the dimensions of collector plate, acrylic tube and tank. A thermal model for the proposed design of MSWHS is developed and simulation is carried out on MATLAB for the capacity of 200L MSWHS having collector area of 1.6 m2, length of acrylic tubes of 2m at an inclination angle 25° which is taken nearly equal to the latitude of the given location. Latitude of Allahabad is 24.45° N. The results show that the maximum temperature of water in tank and tube has been found to be 71.2°C and 73.3°C at 17:00hr and 16:00hr respectively in March for the climatic data of Allahabad. Theoretical performance analysis has been carried out by varying number of tubes of collector, the tank capacity and climatic data for given months of winter and summer.

Saudi Twitter Corpus for Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment analysis (SA) has received growing attention in Arabic language research. However, few studies have yet to directly apply SA to Arabic due to lack of a publicly available dataset for this language. This paper partially bridges this gap due to its focus on one of the Arabic dialects which is the Saudi dialect. This paper presents annotated data set of 4700 for Saudi dialect sentiment analysis with (K= 0.807). Our next work is to extend this corpus and creation a large-scale lexicon for Saudi dialect from the corpus.