Abstract: The coverage probability and range of IEEE 802.16
systems depend on different wireless scenarios. Evaluating the
performance of IEEE 802.16 systems over Stanford University
Interim (SUI) channels is suggested by IEEE 802.16 specifications.
In order to derive an effective method for forecasting the coverage
probability and range, this study uses the SUI channel model to
analyze the coverage probability with Rayleigh fading for an IEEE
802.16 system. The BER of the IEEE 802.16 system is shown in the
simulation results. Then, the maximum allowed path loss can be
calculated and substituted into the coverage analysis. Therefore,
simulation results show the coverage range with and without
Rayleigh fading.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical
model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in
particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was
carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our
interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General
Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships
associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of
appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases.
For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be
used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that
of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most
relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide
information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to
forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in
the immediate future.
Abstract: The connection between solar activity and adverse phenomena in the Earth’s environment that can affect space and ground based technologies has spurred interest in Space Weather (SW) research. A great effort has been put on the development of suitable models that can provide advanced forecast of SW events. With the progress in computational technology, it is becoming possible to develop operational large scale physics based models which can incorporate the most important physical processes and domains of the Sun-Earth system. In order to enhance our SW prediction capabilities we are developing advanced numerical tools. With operational requirements in mind, our goal is to develop a modular simulation framework of propagation of the disturbances from the Sun through interplanetary space to the Earth. Here, we report and discuss on the development of coronal field and solar wind components for a large scale MHD code. The model for these components is based on a potential field source surface model and an empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge solar wind relation.
Abstract: Model Predictive Control has been previously applied
to supply chain problems with promising results; however hitherto
proposed systems possessed no information on future demand. A
forecasting methodology will surely promote the efficiency of
control actions by providing insight on the future. A complete supply
chain management framework that is based on Model Predictive
Control (MPC) and Time Series Forecasting will be presented in this
paper. The proposed framework will be tested on industrial data in
order to assess the efficiency of the method and the impact of
forecast accuracy on overall control performance of the supply chain.
To this end, forecasting methodologies with different characteristics
will be implemented on test data to generate forecasts that will serve
as input to the Model Predictive Control module.
Abstract: The statistical process control (SPC) is one of the most powerful tools developed to assist ineffective control of quality, involves collecting, organizing and interpreting data during production. This article aims to show how the use of CEP industries can control and continuously improve product quality through monitoring of production that can detect deviations of parameters representing the process by reducing the amount of off-specification products and thus the costs of production. This study aimed to conduct a technological forecasting in order to characterize the research being done related to the CEP. The survey was conducted in the databases Spacenet, WIPO and the National Institute of Industrial Property (INPI). Among the largest are the United States depositors and deposits via PCT, the classification section that was presented in greater abundance to F.
Abstract: Prior research has not effectively investigated how the
profitability of Chinese branches affect FDIs in China [1, 2], so this
study for the first time incorporates realistic earnings information
to systematically investigate effects of innovation, imitation, and
profit factors of FDI diffusions from Taiwan to China. Our nonlinear
least square (NLS) model, which incorporates earnings factors,
forms a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) in numerical
simulation programs. The model parameters are obtained through
a genetic algorithms (GA) technique and then optimized with the
collected data for the best accuracy. Particularly, Taiwanese regulatory
FDI restrictions are also considered in our modified model to meet
the realistic conditions. To validate the model-s effectiveness, this
investigation compares the prediction accuracy of modified model
with the conventional diffusion model, which does not take account
of the profitability factors.
The results clearly demonstrate the internal influence to be positive,
as early FDI adopters- consistent praises of FDI attract potential firms
to make the same move. The former erects a behavior model for the
latter to imitate their foreign investment decision. Particularly, the
results of modified diffusion models show that the earnings from
Chinese branches are positively related to the internal influence. In
general, the imitating tendency of potential consumers is substantially
hindered by the losses in the Chinese branches, and these firms would
invest less into China. The FDI inflow extension depends on earnings
of Chinese branches, and companies will adjust their FDI strategies
based on the returns. Since this research has proved that earning is
an influential factor on FDI dynamics, our revised model explicitly
performs superior in prediction ability than conventional diffusion
model.
Abstract: Time series forecasting is an important and widely
popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper
describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning
approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO
algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the
proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the
consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL)
approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance
is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster
than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the
well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the
experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in
time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better
than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent
prediction performance by the proposed approach has been
observed.
Abstract: This paper presents the methodology from machine
learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision
Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine
(SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models
for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to
demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the
relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather
conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for
predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to
launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of
Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the
Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin,
Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making
Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai
Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57
features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three
main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm
(C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain.
The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the
five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.),
few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall
accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN
was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square
error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of
the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for
daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day
estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to
classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and
moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10%
of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM
models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison
of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.
Abstract: Tool wear and surface roughness prediction plays a
significant role in machining industry for proper planning and control
of machining parameters and optimization of cutting conditions. This
paper deals with developing an artificial neural network (ANN)
model as a function of cutting parameters in turning steel under
minimum quantity lubrication (MQL). A feed-forward
backpropagation network with twenty five hidden neurons has been
selected as the optimum network. The co-efficient of determination
(R2) between model predictions and experimental values are 0.9915,
0.9906, 0.9761 and 0.9627 in terms of VB, VM, VS and Ra
respectively. The results imply that the model can be used easily to
forecast tool wear and surface roughness in response to cutting
parameters.
Abstract: Training neural networks to capture an intrinsic
property of a large volume of high dimensional data is a difficult
task, as the training process is computationally expensive. Input
attributes should be carefully selected to keep the dimensionality of
input vectors relatively small.
Technical indexes commonly used for stock market prediction
using neural networks are investigated to determine its effectiveness
as inputs. The feed forward neural network of Levenberg-Marquardt
algorithm is applied to perform one step ahead forecasting of
NASDAQ and Dow stock prices.
Abstract: The Bangalore City is facing the acute problem of
pollution in the atmosphere due to the heavy increase in the traffic
and developmental activities in recent years. The present study is an
attempt in the direction to assess trend of the ambient air quality
status of three stations, viz., AMCO Batteries Factory, Mysore Road,
GRAPHITE INDIA FACTORY, KHB Industrial Area, Whitefield
and Ananda Rao Circle, Gandhinagar with respect to some of the
major criteria pollutants such as Total Suspended particular matter
(SPM), Oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and Oxides of sulphur (SO2). The
sites are representative of various kinds of growths viz., commercial,
residential and industrial, prevailing in Bangalore, which are
contributing to air pollution. The concentration of Sulphur Dioxide
(SO2) at all locations showed a falling trend due to use of refined
petrol and diesel in the recent years. The concentration of Oxides of
nitrogen (NOx) showed an increasing trend but was within the
permissible limits. The concentration of the Suspended particular
matter (SPM) showed the mixed trend. The correlation between
model and observed values is found to vary from 0.4 to 0.7 for SO2,
0.45 to 0.65 for NOx and 0.4 to 0.6 for SPM. About 80% of data is
observed to fall within the error band of ±50%. Forecast test for the
best fit models showed the same trend as actual values in most of the
cases. However, the deviation observed in few cases could be
attributed to change in quality of petro products, increase in the
volume of traffic, introduction of LPG as fuel in many types of
automobiles, poor condition of roads, prevailing meteorological
conditions, etc.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in
three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data
mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering
into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an
artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented
after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring
error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on
previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of
network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast
for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential
Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based
on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support
vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results
show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in
comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods'
stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of
clustering analysis is measured.
Abstract: Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on
costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water
demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task
because the forecast model should consider variations in economic
progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is
further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by
large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious
occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to
handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for
Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed
based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors-
distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying
variables such as household income, household density, and
city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected
number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.
Abstract: Wind farms (WFs) with high level of penetration are
being established in power systems worldwide more rapidly than
other renewable resources. The Independent System Operator (ISO),
as a policy maker, should propose appropriate places for WF
installation in order to maximize the benefits for the investors. There
is also a possibility of congestion relief using the new installation of
WFs which should be taken into account by the ISO when proposing
the locations for WF installation. In this context, efficient wind farm
(WF) placement method is proposed in order to reduce burdens on
congested lines. Since the wind speed is a random variable and load
forecasts also contain uncertainties, probabilistic approaches are used
for this type of study. AC probabilistic optimal power flow (P-OPF)
is formulated and solved using Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). In
order to reduce computation time, point estimate methods (PEM) are
introduced as efficient alternative for time-demanding MCS.
Subsequently, WF optimal placement is determined using generation
shift distribution factors (GSDF) considering a new parameter
entitled, wind availability factor (WAF). In order to obtain more
realistic results, N-1 contingency analysis is employed to find the
optimal size of WF, by means of line outage distribution factors
(LODF). The IEEE 30-bus test system is used to show and compare
the accuracy of proposed methodology.
Abstract: This paper presents Faults Forecasting System (FFS)
that utilizes statistical forecasting techniques in analyzing process
variables data in order to forecast faults occurrences. FFS is
proposing new idea in detecting faults. Current techniques used in
faults detection are based on analyzing the current status of the
system variables in order to check if the current status is fault or not.
FFS is using forecasting techniques to predict future timing for faults
before it happens. Proposed model is applying subset modeling
strategy and Bayesian approach in order to decrease dimensionality
of the process variables and improve faults forecasting accuracy. A
practical experiment, designed and implemented in Okayama
University, Japan, is implemented, and the comparison shows that
our proposed model is showing high forecasting accuracy and
BEFORE-TIME.
Abstract: In this paper, the modelling and design of artificial neural network architecture for load forecasting purposes is investigated. The primary pre-requisite for power system planning is to arrive at realistic estimates of future demand of power, which is known as Load Forecasting. Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) helps in determining the economic, reliable and secure operating strategies for power system. The dependence of load on several factors makes the load forecasting a very challenging job. An over estimation of the load may cause premature investment and unnecessary blocking of the capital where as under estimation of load may result in shortage of equipment and circuits. It is always better to plan the system for the load slightly higher than expected one so that no exigency may arise. In this paper, a load-forecasting model is proposed using a multilayer neural network with an appropriately modified back propagation learning algorithm. Once the neural network model is designed and trained, it can forecast the load of the power system 24 hours ahead on daily basis and can also forecast the cumulative load on daily basis. The real load data that is used for the Artificial Neural Network training was taken from LDC, Gujarat Electricity Board, Jambuva, Gujarat, India. The results show that the load forecasting of the ANN model follows the actual load pattern more accurately throughout the forecasted period.
Abstract: This research focus on developing a new segmentation method for improving forecasting model which is call trend based segmentation method (TBSM). Generally, the piece-wise linear representation (PLR) can finds some of pair of trading points is well for time series data, but in the complicated stock environment it is not well for stock forecasting because of the stock has more trends of trading. If we consider the trends of trading in stock price for the trading signal which it will improve the precision of forecasting model. Therefore, a TBSM with SVR model used to detect the trading points for various stocks of Taiwanese and America under different trend tendencies. The experimental results show our trading system is more profitable and can be implemented in real time of stock market
Abstract: Unlike Christianity and Buddhism, Islam, being one
of the three universal world religions, actively penetrates into
people-s everyday life. The main reason for this is that in Islam the
religion and ideology, philosophy, religious organizations and state
bodies are closely interrelated. In order to analyze the state of being
of interrelations of religion and civil society in Kazakhstan, it is
necessary to study Islam and its relations with spiritual culture of the
society. According to the Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan
the religion is separated from the state, i.e. each performs its own
function without interfering into each other-s affairs. The right of the
citizens of our republic to freedom of thinking and faith is based on
the Constitution of the RK, Civil Code, Law “On freedom of faith
and religious unions in the Republic of Kazakhstan".
Legislatively secured separation of the mosque and church from
the state does not mean that religion has no influence on the latter.
The state, consisting of citizens with their own beliefs, including
religious ones, cannot be isolated from the influence of religion.
Nowadays it is commonly accepted that it is not possible to
understand and forecast key social processes without taking into
account the religious factor.
Abstract: Embedded systems need to respect stringent real
time constraints. Various hardware components included in such
systems such as cache memories exhibit variability and therefore
affect execution time. Indeed, a cache memory access from an
embedded microprocessor might result in a cache hit where the
data is available or a cache miss and the data need to be fetched
with an additional delay from an external memory. It is therefore
highly desirable to predict future memory accesses during
execution in order to appropriately prefetch data without incurring
delays. In this paper, we evaluate the potential of several artificial
neural networks for the prediction of instruction memory
addresses. Neural network have the potential to tackle the nonlinear
behavior observed in memory accesses during program
execution and their demonstrated numerous hardware
implementation emphasize this choice over traditional forecasting
techniques for their inclusion in embedded systems. However,
embedded applications execute millions of instructions and
therefore millions of addresses to be predicted. This very
challenging problem of neural network based prediction of large
time series is approached in this paper by evaluating various neural
network architectures based on the recurrent neural network
paradigm with pre-processing based on the Self Organizing Map
(SOM) classification technique.
Abstract: The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. An improved model for temperature prediction in Georgia was developed by including information on seasonality and modifying parameters of an existing artificial neural network model. Alternative models were compared by instantiating and training multiple networks for each model. The inclusion of up to 24 hours of prior weather information and inputs reflecting the day of year were among improvements that reduced average four-hour prediction error by 0.18°C compared to the prior model. Results strongly suggest model developers should instantiate and train multiple networks with different initial weights to establish appropriate model parameters.