Abstract: The interaction of tunneling or mining with
groundwater has become a very relevant problem not only due to the
need to guarantee the safety of workers and to assure the efficiency of
the tunnel drainage systems, but also to safeguard water resources
from impoverishment and pollution risk. Therefore it is very
important to forecast the drainage processes (i.e., the evaluation of
drained discharge and drawdown caused by the excavation). The aim
of this study was to know better the system and to quantify the flow
drained from the Fontane mines, located in Val Germanasca (Turin,
Italy). This allowed to understand the hydrogeological local changes
in time. The work has therefore been structured as follows: the
reconstruction of the conceptual model with the geological,
hydrogeological and geological-structural study; the calculation of
the tunnel inflows (through the use of structural methods) and the
comparison with the measured flow rates; the water balance at the
basin scale. In this way it was possible to understand what are the
relationships between rainfall, groundwater level variations and the
effect of the presence of tunnels as a means of draining water.
Subsequently, it the effects produced by the excavation of the mining
tunnels was quantified, through numerical modeling. In particular,
the modeling made it possible to observe the drawdown variation as a
function of number, excavation depth and different mines linings.
Abstract: This paper introduces a framework that aims to
support the design and development of mobile services. The
traditional innovation process and its supporting instruments in form
of creativity tools, acceptance research and user-generated content
analysis are screened for potentials for improvement. The result is a
reshaped innovation process where acceptance research and usergenerated
content analysis are fully integrated within a creativity
tool. Advantages of this method are the enhancement of design
relevant information for developers and designers and the possibility
to forecast market success.
Abstract: In the last few years, several steps were taken in order
to improve the quality of corporate governance for Romanian listed
companies. Higher standards of corporate governance is documented
in the literature to lead to a better information environment, and,
consequently, to increase analysts forecast accuracy. Accordingly, the
purpose of this paper is to investigate the extent to which corporate
governance policies affect analysts forecasts for companies listed on
Bucharest Stock Exchange. The results showed that there is indeed a
negative correlation between a corporate governance index – used as
a proxy for the quality of corporate governance practices - and
analysts forecast errors.
Abstract: The significance of emissions from the road transport
sector (such as air pollution, noise, etc) has grown considerably in
recent years. In Australia, 14.3% of national greenhouse gas
emissions in 2000 were the transport sector-s share which 12.9% of
net national emissions were related to a road transport alone.
Considering the growing attention to the green house gas(GHG)
emissions, this paper attempts to provide air pollution modeling
aspects of environmental consequences of the road transport by using
one of the best computer based tools including the Geographic
Information System (GIS). In other word, in this study, GIS and its
applications is explained, models which are used to model air
pollution and GHG emissions from vehicles are described and GIS is
applied in real case study that attempts to forecast GHG emission
from people who travel to work by car in 2031 in Melbourne for
analysing results as thematic maps.
Abstract: Human Resource (HR) applications can be used to
provide fair and consistent decisions, and to improve the
effectiveness of decision making processes. Besides that, among
the challenge for HR professionals is to manage organization
talents, especially to ensure the right person for the right job at the
right time. For that reason, in this article, we attempt to describe
the potential to implement one of the talent management tasks i.e.
identifying existing talent by predicting their performance as one of
HR application for talent management. This study suggests the
potential HR system architecture for talent forecasting by using
past experience knowledge known as Knowledge Discovery in
Database (KDD) or Data Mining. This article consists of three
main parts; the first part deals with the overview of HR
applications, the prediction techniques and application, the general
view of Data mining and the basic concept of talent management
in HRM. The second part is to understand the use of Data Mining
technique in order to solve one of the talent management tasks, and
the third part is to propose the potential HR system architecture for
talent forecasting.
Abstract: In this paper we describe the design and implementation of a parallel algorithm for data assimilation with ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for oil reservoir history matching problem. The use of large number of observations from time-lapse seismic leads to a large turnaround time for the analysis step, in addition to the time consuming simulations of the realizations. For efficient parallelization it is important to consider parallel computation at the analysis step. Our experiments show that parallelization of the analysis step in addition to the forecast step has good scalability, exploiting the same set of resources with some additional efforts.
Abstract: In July 1, 2007, Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) on
market observation post system (MOPS) adds a new "Financial
reference database" for investors to do investment reference. This
database as a warning to public offering companies listed on the
public financial information and it original within eight targets. In
this paper, this database provided by the indicators for the application
of company financial crisis early warning model verify that the
database provided by the indicator forecast for the financial crisis,
whether or not companies have a high accuracy rate as opposed to
domestic and foreign scholars have positive results. There is use of
Logistic Regression Model application of the financial early warning
model, in which no joined back-conditions is the first model, joined it
in is the second model, has been taken occurred in the financial crisis
of companies to research samples and then business took place
before the financial crisis point with T-1 and T-2 sample data to do
positive analysis. The results show that this database provided the
debt ratio and net per share for the best forecast variables.
Abstract: This paper mainly investigates the environmental and
economic impacts of worldwide use of electric vehicles. It can be
concluded that governments have good reason to promote the use of
electric vehicles. First, the global vehicles population is evaluated with
the help of grey forecasting model and the amount of oil saving is
estimated through approximate calculation. After that, based on the
game theory, the amount and types of electricity generation needed by
electronic vehicles are established. Finally, some conclusions on the
government-s attitudes are drawn.
Abstract: DG application has received increasing attention during
recent years. The impact of DG on various aspects of distribution system
operation, such as reliability and energy loss, depend highly on DG
location in distribution feeder. Optimal DG placement is an important
subject which has not been fully discussed yet.
This paper presents an optimization method to determine optimal DG
placement, based on a cost/worth analysis approach. This method
considers technical and economical factors such as energy loss, load point
reliability indices and DG costs, and particularly, portability of DG. The
proposed method is applied to a test system and the impacts of different
parameters such as load growth rate and load forecast uncertainty (LFU)
on optimum DG location are studied.
Abstract: In the last 15 years, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of enrollments at the University of Alabama. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on frequency density based partitioning of the historical enrollment data. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting enrollments than the existing methods.
Abstract: Many studies have shown that Artificial Neural
Networks (ANN) have been widely used for forecasting financial
markets, because of many financial and economic variables are nonlinear,
and an ANN can model flexible linear or non-linear
relationship among variables.
The purpose of the study was to employ an ANN models to
predict the direction of the Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100
Indices (ISE National-100).
As a result of this study, the model forecast the direction of the
ISE National-100 to an accuracy of 74, 51%.
Abstract: This paper presents an alternate approach that uses
artificial neural network to simulate the flood level dynamics in a
river basin. The algorithm was developed in a decision support
system environment in order to enable users to process the data. The
decision support system is found to be useful due to its interactive
nature, flexibility in approach and evolving graphical feature and can
be adopted for any similar situation to predict the flood level. The
main data processing includes the gauging station selection, input
generation, lead-time selection/generation, and length of prediction.
This program enables users to process the flood level data, to
train/test the model using various inputs and to visualize results. The
program code consists of a set of files, which can as well be modified
to match other purposes. This program may also serve as a tool for
real-time flood monitoring and process control. The running results
indicate that the decision support system applied to the flood level
seems to have reached encouraging results for the river basin under
examination. The comparison of the model predictions with the
observed data was satisfactory, where the model is able to forecast
the flood level up to 5 hours in advance with reasonable prediction
accuracy. Finally, this program may also serve as a tool for real-time
flood monitoring and process control.
Abstract: Quality evaluation of urban environment is an integral
part of efficient urban environment planning and management. The
development of fuzzy set theory (FST) and the introduction of FST
to the urban study field attempts to incorporate the gradual variation
and avoid loss of information. Urban environmental quality
assessment pertain to interpretation and forecast of the urban
environmental quality according to the national regulation about the
permitted content of contamination for the sake of protecting human
health and subsistence environment . A strategic motor vehicle
control strategy has to be proposed to mitigate the air pollution in the
city. There is no well defined guideline for the assessment of urban
air pollution and no systematic study has been reported so far for
Indian cities. The methodology adopted may be useful in similar
cities of India. Remote sensing & GIS can play significant role in
mapping air pollution.
Abstract: The hydrologic time series data display periodic
structure and periodic autoregressive process receives considerable
attention in modeling of such series. In this communication long
term record of monthly waste flow of Lyari river is utilized to
quantify by using PAR modeling technique. The parameters of
model are estimated by using Frances & Paap methodology. This
study shows that periodic autoregressive model of order 2 is the most
parsimonious model for assessing periodicity in waste flow of the
river. A careful statistical analysis of residuals of PAR (2) model is
used for establishing goodness of fit. The forecast by using proposed
model confirms significance and effectiveness of the model.
Abstract: This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank model. The case study was conducted in three basins (small, medium, and large size) located in Central Vietnam. Calculated hydrographs based on ground observation rainfall showed best fit to measured stream flow, while those obtained from TRMM and NWP showed high uncertainty of peak discharges. However, calculated hydrographs using the adjusted rainfield depicted a promising alternative for the application of TRMM and NWP in flood modeling for scattered observation catchments, especially for the extension of forecast lead time.
Abstract: Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key
issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of
modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy
patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no
demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large
variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting
methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy.
In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns
of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed,
which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a
traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the
described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to
forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional
recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero
demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed
approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using
Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered
perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network
and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were
applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak
Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The
results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed
mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.
Abstract: Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability distributions. The estimates of the parameters are used to calculate natural disaster forecasts. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.
Abstract: The paper presents a method for multivariate time
series forecasting using Independent Component Analysis (ICA), as a preprocessing tool. The idea of this approach is to do the forecasting in the space of independent components (sources), and then to transform back the results to the original time series
space. The forecasting can be done separately and with a different
method for each component, depending on its time structure. The
paper gives also a review of the main algorithms for independent component analysis in the case of instantaneous mixture models, using second and high-order statistics. The method has been applied in simulation to an artificial multivariate time series
with five components, generated from three sources and a mixing matrix, randomly generated.
Abstract: The prospective analysis is presented as an important tool to identify the most relevant opportunities and needs in research and development from planned interventions in innovation systems. This study chose Phyllanthus niruri, known as "stone break" to describe the knowledge about the specie, by using biotechnological forecasting through the software Vantage Point. It can be seen a considerable increase in studies on Phyllanthus niruri in recent years and that there are patents about this plant since twenty-five years ago. India was the country that most carried out research on the specie, showing interest, mainly in studies of hepatoprotection, antioxidant and anti-cancer activities. Brazil is in the second place, with special interest for anti-tumor studies. Given the identification of the Brazilian groups that exploit the species it is possible to mediate partnerships and cooperation aiming to help on the implementing of the Program of Herbal medicines (phytotherapics) in Brazil.
Abstract: This article is devoted to the analysis of results of
sociological researches carried out by authors directed on studying of
opinion of representatives of small, medium and big business on
formation of the Customs Union, Common Free Market Zone with
participation of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus.
It-s forecasted that companies, their branches will interpenetrate
with registration and moving their businesses to regions with more
beneficial conditions. They say that in Kazakhstan there are more
profitable geo-strategic operating environment for business and lower
taxes. Russia using this opportunity will create new conditions for
expansion into other countries of Central Asia and China. Opinions
of participants of questionnaire and expert poll different in estimation
of value of these two integration mechanisms since market segments
on the one hand extend, but also on the other hand - loss of exclusive
influence in certain fields of activity.