Abstract: The article deals with the relation between rainfall in selected months and subsequent weed infestation of spring barley. The field experiment was performed at Mendel University agricultural enterprise in Žabčice, Czech Republic. Weed infestation was measured in spring barley vegetation in years 2004 to 2012. Barley was grown in three tillage variants: conventional tillage technology (CT), minimization tillage technology (MT), and no tillage (NT). Precipitation was recorded in one-day intervals. Monthly precipitation was calculated from the measured values in the months of October through to April. The technique of canonical correspondence analysis was applied for further statistical processing. 41 different species of weeds were found in the course of the 9-year monitoring period. The results clearly show that precipitation affects the incidence of most weed species in the selected months, but acts differently in the monitored variants of tillage technologies.
Abstract: Fast forecasting of stock market prices is very important for
strategic planning. In this paper, a new approach for fast forecasting of
stock market prices is presented. Such algorithm uses new high speed
time delay neural networks (HSTDNNs). The operation of these
networks relies on performing cross correlation in the frequency
domain between the input data and the input weights of neural
networks. It is proved mathematically and practically that the number
of computation steps required for the presented HSTDNNs is less
than that needed by traditional time delay neural networks
(TTDNNs). Simulation results using MATLAB confirm the
theoretical computations.
Abstract: In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.
A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.
Abstract: this paper presents a multi-context recurrent network for time series analysis. While simple recurrent network (SRN) are very popular among recurrent neural networks, they still have some shortcomings in terms of learning speed and accuracy that need to be addressed. To solve these problems, we proposed a multi-context recurrent network (MCRN) with three different learning algorithms. The performance of this network is evaluated on some real-world application such as handwriting recognition and energy load forecasting. We study the performance of this network and we compared it to a very well established SRN. The experimental results showed that MCRN is very efficient and very well suited to time series analysis and its applications.
Abstract: This paper presents a new approach using Combined Artificial Neural Network (CANN) module for daily peak load forecasting. Five different computational techniques –Constrained method, Unconstrained method, Evolutionary Programming (EP), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) – have been used to identify the CANN module for peak load forecasting. In this paper, a set of neural networks has been trained with different architecture and training parameters. The networks are trained and tested for the actual load data of Chennai city (India). A set of better trained conventional ANNs are selected to develop a CANN module using different algorithms instead of using one best conventional ANN. Obtained results using CANN module confirm its validity.
Abstract: A feed-forward, back-propagation Artificial Neural
Network (ANN) model has been used to forecast the occurrences of
wastewater overflows in a combined sewerage reticulation system.
This approach was tested to evaluate its applicability as a method
alternative to the common practice of developing a complete
conceptual, mathematical hydrological-hydraulic model for the
sewerage system to enable such forecasts. The ANN approach
obviates the need for a-priori understanding and representation of the
underlying hydrological hydraulic phenomena in mathematical terms
but enables learning the characteristics of a sewer overflow from the
historical data.
The performance of the standard feed-forward, back-propagation
of error algorithm was enhanced by a modified data normalizing
technique that enabled the ANN model to extrapolate into the
territory that was unseen by the training data. The algorithm and the
data normalizing method are presented along with the ANN model
output results that indicate a good accuracy in the forecasted sewer
overflow rates. However, it was revealed that the accurate
forecasting of the overflow rates are heavily dependent on the
availability of a real-time flow monitoring at the overflow structure
to provide antecedent flow rate data. The ability of the ANN to
forecast the overflow rates without the antecedent flow rates (as is
the case with traditional conceptual reticulation models) was found to
be quite poor.
Abstract: Load forecasting has become in recent years one of the major areas of research in electrical engineering. Most traditional forecasting models and artificial intelligence neural network techniques have been tried out in this task. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have lately received much attention, and a great number of papers have reported successful experiments and practical tests. This article presents the development of an ANN-based short-term load forecasting model with improved generalization technique for the Regional Power Control Center of Saudi Electricity Company, Western Operation Area (SEC-WOA). The proposed ANN is trained with weather-related data and historical electric load-related data using the data from the calendar years 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 for training. The model tested for one week at five different seasons, typically, winter, spring, summer, Ramadan and fall seasons, and the mean absolute average error for one hour-ahead load forecasting found 1.12%.
Abstract: This research is intended to develop a raw material allocation model in timber processing industry in Perum Perhutani Unit I, Central Java, Indonesia. The model can be used to determine the quantity of allocation of timber between chain in the supply chain to select supplier considering factors that are log price and the distance. In determining the quantity of allocation of timber between chains in the supply chain, the model considers the optimal inventory in each chain. Whilst the optimal inventory is determined based on demand forecast, the capacity and safety stock. Problem solving allocation is conducted by developing linear programming model that aims to minimize the total cost of the purchase, transportation cost and storage costs at each chain. The results of numerical examples show that the proposed model can generate savings of the purchase cost of 20.84% and select suppliers with mileage closer.
Abstract: This paper presents performance comparison of three estimation techniques used for peak load forecasting in power systems. The three optimum estimation techniques are, genetic algorithms (GA), least error squares (LS) and, least absolute value filtering (LAVF). The problem is formulated as an estimation problem. Different forecasting models are considered. Actual recorded data is used to perform the study. The performance of the above three optimal estimation techniques is examined. Advantages of each algorithms are reported and discussed.
Abstract: Technology changes have been acknowledged as a
critical factor in determining competitiveness of organization. Under
such environment, the right anticipation of technology change has
been of huge importance in strategic planning. To monitor technology
change, technology forecasting (TF) is frequently utilized. In
academic perspective, TF has received great attention for a long time.
However, few researches have been conducted to provide overview of
the TF literature. Even though some studies deals with review of TF
research, they generally focused on type and characteristics of various
TF, so hardly provides information about patterns of TF research and
which TF method is used in certain technology industry. Accordingly,
this study profile developments in and patterns of scholarly research in
TF over time. Also, this study investigates which technology
industries have used certain TF method and identifies their
relationships. This study will help in understanding TF research trend
and their application area.
Abstract: A clustering based technique has been developed and implemented for Short Term Load Forecasting, in this article. Formulation has been done using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as an objective function. Data Matrix and cluster size are optimization variables. Model designed, uses two temperature variables. This is compared with six input Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (FINN) for the data of the same system, for same time period. The fuzzy inference system has the network structure and the training procedure of a neural network which initially creates a rule base from existing historical load data. It is observed that the proposed clustering based model is giving better forecasting accuracy as compared to the other two methods. Test results also indicate that the RBFNN can forecast future loads with accuracy comparable to that of proposed method, where as the training time required in the case of FINN is much less.
Abstract: To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.
Abstract: In a product development process, understanding the functional behavior of the system, the role of components in achieving functions and failure modes if components/subsystem fails its required function will help develop appropriate design validation and verification program for reliability assessment. The integration of these three issues will help design and reliability engineers in identifying weak spots in design and planning future actions and testing program. This case study demonstrate the advantage of unascertained theory described in the subjective cognition uncertainty, and then applies blind number (BN) theory in describing the uncertainty of the mechanical system failure process and the same time used the same theory in bringing out another mechanical reliability system model. The practical calculations shows the BN Model embodied the characters of simply, small account of calculation but betterforecasting capability, which had the value of macroscopic discussion to some extent.
Abstract: The photonic component industry is a highly
innovative industry with a large value chain. In order to ensure the
growth of the industry much effort must be devoted to road mapping
activities. In such activities demand and price evolution forecasting
tools can prove quite useful in order to help in the roadmap
refinement and update process. This paper attempts to provide useful
guidelines in roadmapping of optical components and considers two
models based on diffusion theory and the extended learning curve for
demand and price evolution forecasting.
Abstract: This study aims at providing empirical evidence on a
comparison of two equity valuation models: (1) the dividend discount
model (DDM) and (2) the residual income model (RIM), in
estimating equity values of Thai firms during 1995-2004. Results
suggest that DDM and RIM underestimate equity values of Thai
firms and that RIM outperforms DDM in predicting cross-sectional
stock prices. Results on regression of cross-sectional stock prices on
the decomposed DDM and RIM equity values indicate that book
value of equity provides the greatest incremental explanatory power,
relative to other components in DDM and RIM terminal values,
suggesting that book value distortions resulting from accounting
procedures and choices are less severe than forecast and
measurement errors in discount rates and growth rates.
We also document that the incremental explanatory power of book
value of equity during 1998-2004, representing the information
environment under Thai Accounting Standards reformed after the
1997 economic crisis to conform to International Accounting
Standards, is significantly greater than that during 1995-1996,
representing the information environment under the pre-reformed
Thai Accounting Standards. This implies that the book value
distortions are less severe under the 1997 Reformed Thai Accounting
Standards than the pre-reformed Thai Accounting Standards.
Abstract: The design of a complete expansion that allows for
compact representation of certain relevant classes of signals is a
central problem in signal processing applications. Achieving such a
representation means knowing the signal features for the purpose of
denoising, classification, interpolation and forecasting. Multilayer
Neural Networks are relatively a new class of techniques that are
mathematically proven to approximate any continuous function
arbitrarily well. Radial Basis Function Networks, which make use of
Gaussian activation function, are also shown to be a universal
approximator. In this age of ever-increasing digitization in the
storage, processing, analysis and communication of information,
there are numerous examples of applications where one needs to
construct a continuously defined function or numerical algorithm to
approximate, represent and reconstruct the given discrete data of a
signal. Many a times one wishes to manipulate the data in a way that
requires information not included explicitly in the data, which is
done through interpolation and/or extrapolation.
Tidal data are a very perfect example of time series and many
statistical techniques have been applied for tidal data analysis and
representation. ANN is recent addition to such techniques. In the
present paper we describe the time series representation capabilities
of a special type of ANN- Radial Basis Function networks and
present the results of tidal data representation using RBF. Tidal data
analysis & representation is one of the important requirements in
marine science for forecasting.
Abstract: This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.
Abstract: An integrated Artificial Neural Network- Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is presented for analyzing global electricity consumption. To aim this purpose, following steps are done: STEP 1: in the first step, PSO is applied in order to determine world-s oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy demand equations based on socio-economic indicators. World-s population, Gross domestic product (GDP), oil trade movement and natural gas trade movement are used as socio-economic indicators in this study. For each socio-economic indicator, a feed-forward back propagation artificial neural network is trained and projected for future time domain. STEP 2: in the second step, global electricity consumption is projected based on the oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy consumption using PSO. global electricity consumption is forecasted up to year 2040.
Abstract: The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.
Abstract: The majority of existing predictors for time series are
model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the
identification of complex systems, usually involving system
identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of
time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually
generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other
chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of
parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor
(MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or
process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the
MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating
polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict
future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and
is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast
prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The
performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the
prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.