Abstract: Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.
Abstract: India is known as a country of diversity regarding the social, cultural and wide geographical variations. In the north and north-west part of the country, the strong patriarchal norms and the male dominance based social structure are the important constructs. Patriarchal social setup adversely affects the women’s social and economic wellbeing and hence in that social structure women are considered as second level citizen. Work participation rate of women has directly linked to the development of society or household. Haryana is one of the developed states of India, still being ahead in economic prosperity, much lagged behind in gender-based equality and male dominance in all dimensions of life. The position of women in the Haryana is no better than the other states of India. Haryana state has the great difference among the male-female sex ratio which is a serious concern for social science research as a demographic problem for the state. Now women are requiring for their holistic empowerment and that will take care of them for an enabling process that must lead to their economic as well as social transformation. Hence, the objective of the paper is to address the role of sex ratio, women literacy and her work participation in the process of their empowerment with special attention to the gender perspective. The study used the data from Census of India from 1991 to 2011. This paper will examine the regional disparity of sex ratio, literacy rate and female work participation and the improvement of empowerment of women in the state of Haryana. This paper will suggest the idea for focusing much intensively on the issues of women empowerment through enhancement of her education, workforce participation and social participation with people participation and holistic approach.
Abstract: In this paper an attempt is made to establish causal nexuses between innovation and international trade in Russia. The topicality of this issue is determined by the necessity of choosing policy instruments for economic modernization and transition to innovative development. The vector auto regression (VAR) model and Granger test are applied for the Russian monthly data from 2005 until the second quartile of 2015. Both lagged import and export at the national level cause innovation, the latter starts to stimulate foreign trade since it is a remote lag. In comparison to aggregate data, the results by patent’s categories are more diverse. Importing technologies from foreign countries stimulates patent activity, while innovations created in Russia are only Granger causality for import to Commonwealth of Independent States.
Abstract: Government reports and published research have
flagged and brought to public attention the deteriorating condition of
a large percentage of bridges in Canada and the United States. With
the increasing number of deteriorated bridges in the US, Canada, and
around the globe, condition assessment techniques of concrete
bridges are evolving. Investigation for bridges’ defects such as
cracks, spalls, and delamination and their level of severity are the
main objectives of condition assessment. Inspection and
rehabilitation programs are being implemented to monitor and
maintain deteriorated bridge infrastructure. This paper highlights the
state-of-the art of current practices being performed for concrete
bridge inspection. The information is gathered from the literature and
through a distributed questionnaire. The current practices in concrete
bridge inspection rely on the use of hummer sounding and chain
dragging tests. Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) techniques are not
being utilized fully in the process. Nonetheless, they are being
partially utilized by the recommendation of the bridge inspector after
conducting visual inspection. Lanes are usually closed during the
performance of visual inspection and bridge inspection in general.
Abstract: The goal of this study was to increase the awareness of the description and assessments of rice acreage response and to offer mechanisms for agricultural policy scrutiny. The ordinary least square (OLS) technique was utilized to determine the coefficients of acreage response models for the rice varieties. The magnitudes of the coefficients (λ) of both the ROK lagged and NERICA lagged acreages were found positive and highly significant, which indicates that farmers’ adjustment rate was very low. Regarding lagged actual price for both the ROK and NERICE rice varieties, the short-run price elasticitieswere lower than long-run, which is suggesting a long term adjustment of the acreage under the crop.
However, the apparent recommendations for policy transformation are to open farm gate prices and to decrease government’s involvement in agricultural sector especially in the acquisition of agricultural inputs. Impending research have to be centered on how this might be better realized. Necessary conditions should be made available to the private sector by means of minimizing price volatility. In accordance with structural reforms, it is necessary to convey output prices to farmers with minimum distortion. There is need to eradicate price subsidies and control, which generate distortion in the market in addition to huge financial costs.
Abstract: In this paper we present a Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy
System (ANFIS) with inputs the lagged dependent variable for the
prediction of Gross domestic Product growth rate in six countries.
We compare the results with those of Autoregressive (AR) model.
We conclude that the forecasting performance of neuro-fuzzy-system
in the out-of-sample period is much more superior and can be a very
useful alternative tool used by the national statistical services and the
banking and finance industry.
Abstract: This study empirically examines the long run equilibrium relationship between South Africa’s exports and imports using quarterly data from 1985 to 2012. The theoretical framework used for the study is based on Johansen’s Maximum Likelihood cointegration technique which tests for both the existence and number of cointegration vectors that exists. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant cointegrating relationship is found to exist between exports and imports. The study models this unique linear and lagged relationship using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings of the study confirm the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship between exports and imports.
Abstract: A gene network gives the knowledge of the regulatory
relationships among the genes. Each gene has its activators and
inhibitors that regulate its expression positively and negatively
respectively. Genes themselves are believed to act as activators and
inhibitors of other genes. They can even activate one set of genes and
inhibit another set. Identifying gene networks is one of the most
crucial and challenging problems in Bioinformatics. Most work done
so far either assumes that there is no time delay in gene regulation or
there is a constant time delay. We here propose a Dynamic Time-
Lagged Correlation Based Method (DTCBM) to learn the gene
networks, which uses time-lagged correlation to find the potential
gene interactions, and then uses a post-processing stage to remove
false gene interactions to common parents, and finally uses dynamic
correlation thresholds for each gene to construct the gene network.
DTCBM finds correlation between gene expression signals shifted in
time, and therefore takes into consideration the multi time delay
relationships among the genes. The implementation of our method is
done in MATLAB and experimental results on Saccharomyces
cerevisiae gene expression data and comparison with other methods
indicate that it has a better performance.
Abstract: This article provides empirical evidence on the effect
of domestic and international factors on the U.S. current account
deficit. Linear dynamic regression and vector autoregression models
are employed to estimate the relationships during the period from 1986
to 2011. The findings of this study suggest that the current and lagged
private saving rate and foreign current account for East Asian
economies have played a vital role in affecting the U.S. current
account. Additionally, using Granger causality tests and variance
decompositions, the change of the productivity growth and foreign
domestic demand are determined to influence significantly the change
of the U.S. current account. To summarize, the empirical relationship
between the U.S. current account deficit and its determinants is
sensitive to alternative regression models and specifications.
Abstract: In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.
A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.
Abstract: As the Internet continues to grow at a rapid pace as
the primary medium for communications and commerce and as
telecommunication networks and systems continue to expand their
global reach, digital information has become the most popular and
important information resource and our dependence upon the
underlying cyber infrastructure has been increasing significantly.
Unfortunately, as our dependency has grown, so has the threat to the
cyber infrastructure from spammers, attackers and criminal
enterprises. In this paper, we propose a new machine learning based
network intrusion detection framework for cyber security. The
detection process of the framework consists of two stages: model
construction and intrusion detection. In the model construction stage,
a semi-supervised machine learning algorithm is applied to a
collected set of network audit data to generate a profile of normal
network behavior and in the intrusion detection stage, input network
events are analyzed and compared with the patterns gathered in the
profile, and some of them are then flagged as anomalies should these
events are sufficiently far from the expected normal behavior. The
proposed framework is particularly applicable to the situations where
there is only a small amount of labeled network training data
available, which is very typical in real world network environments.