Application of GM (1, 1) Model Group Based on Recursive Solution in China's Energy Demand Forecasting

To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

• Yeqing Guan
• Fen Yang

• energy demands
• GM(1
• 1) model group
• least square estimation
• prediction

[1] Deng Julong. The control problem of grey systems (J). Systems & Control
Letters, 1982, 1(5): 288~294.
[2] Deng Julong. Grey theory basic(M).Wuhan ´╝Ü Huazhong University
Publishing House, 2002: 1~7, 210~316.
[3] Liu Sifeng. To the world of grey system theory (J). Market Weekly
Economics, 2003, 1:1~3.
[4] Liu Sifeng, Dang Yaoguo, Fang Zhigeng, Xie Naiming. Grey systems
theory and its application (Fifth Edition) (M). Beijing. The Science Press,
2010.146~165.
[5] Bian Peisong, Wang Dengjie, Yu Shaohua. Application of the metabolic
GM (1, 1) model in forecast of buildings subsidence (J). Journal of
Shandong University (engineering science), 2010, 40(3): 119~123.
[6] Li Yongxiang, Yang Jianguo. Application of grey system model to
thermal error modeling on machine tool (J). China Mechanical
Engineering, 2006, 23:2439~2432.
[7] Guan Yeqing, Liu Sifeng. Research on sequence operators-based grey
forecasting models and their applications (D).Nanjing, Nanjing
University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2010.