Abstract: The electric power industry is currently undergoing an unprecedented reform. One of the most exciting and potentially profitable recent developments is increasing usage of artificial intelligence techniques. The intention of this paper is to give an overview of using neural network (NN) techniques in power systems. According to the growth rate of NNs application in some power system subjects, this paper introduce a brief overview in fault diagnosis, security assessment, load forecasting, economic dispatch and harmonic analyzing. Advantages and disadvantages of using NNs in above mentioned subjects and the main challenges in these fields have been explained, too.
Abstract: Nowadays increasingly the population makes use of
Information Technology (IT). As such, in recent year the Portuguese
government increased its focus on using the IT for improving
people-s life and began to develop a set of measures to enable the
modernization of the Public Administration, and so reducing the gap
between Public Administration and citizens.Thus the Portuguese
Government launched the Simplex Program. However these
SIMPLEX eGov measures, which have been implemented over the
years, present a serious challenge: how to forecast its impact on
existing Information Systems Architecture (ISA). Thus, this research
is focus in addressing the problem of automating the evaluation of the
actual impact of implementation an eGovSimplification and
Modernization measures in the Information Systems Architecture. To
realize the evaluation we proposes a Framework, which is supported
by some key concepts as: Quality Factors, ISA modeling,
Multicriteria Approach, Polarity Profile and Quality Metrics
Abstract: This study investigates the performance of radial basis function networks (RBFN) in forecasting the monthly CO2 emissions of an electric power utility. We also propose a method for input variable selection. This method is based on identifying the general relationships between groups of input candidates and the output. The effect that each input has on the forecasting error is examined by removing all inputs except the variable to be investigated from its group, calculating the networks parameter and performing the forecast. Finally, the new forecasting error is compared with the reference model. Eight input variables were identified as the most relevant, which is significantly less than our reference model with 30 input variables. The simulation results demonstrate that the model with the 8 inputs selected using the method introduced in this study performs as accurate as the reference model, while also being the most parsimonious.
Abstract: Forecasting the values of the indicators, which
characterize the effectiveness of performance of organizations is of
great importance for their successful development. Such forecasting
is necessary in order to assess the current state and to foresee future
developments, so that measures to improve the organization-s
activity could be undertaken in time. The article presents an
overview of the applied mathematical and statistical methods for
developing forecasts. Special attention is paid to artificial neural
networks as a forecasting tool. Their strengths and weaknesses are
analyzed and a synopsis is made of the application of artificial neural
networks in the field of forecasting of the values of different
education efficiency indicators. A method of evaluation of the
activity of universities using the Balanced Scorecard is proposed and
Key Performance Indicators for assessment of e-learning are
selected. Resulting indicators for the evaluation of efficiency of the
activity are proposed. An artificial neural network is constructed and
applied in the forecasting of the values of indicators for e-learning
efficiency on the basis of the KPI values.
Abstract: terrorism and extremism are among the most
dangerous and difficult to forecast the phenomena of our time, which
are becoming more diverse forms and rampant. Terrorist attacks often
produce mass casualties, involve the destruction of material and
spiritual values, beyond the recovery times, sow hatred among
nations, provoke war, mistrust and hatred between the social and
national groups, which sometimes can not be overcome within a
generation. Currently, the countries of Central Asia are a topical issue
– the threat of terrorism and religious extremism, which grow not
only in our area, but throughout the world. Of course, in each of the
terrorist threat is assessed differently. In our country the problem of
terrorism should not be acutely. Thus, after independence and
sovereignty of Kazakhstan has chosen the path of democracy,
progress and free economy. With the policy of the President of
Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev and well-organized political and
economic reforms, there has been economic growth and rising living
standards, socio-political stability, ensured civil peace and accord in
society [1].
Abstract: The selection for plantation of a particular type of
mustard plant depending on its productivity (pod yield) at the stage
of maturity. The growth of mustard plant dependent on some
parameters of that plant, these are shoot length, number of leaves,
number of roots and roots length etc. As the plant is growing, some
leaves may be fall down and some new leaves may come, so it can
not gives the idea to develop the relationship with the seeds weight at
mature stage of that plant. It is not possible to find the number of
roots and root length of mustard plant at growing stage that will be
harmful of this plant as roots goes deeper to deeper inside the land.
Only the value of shoot length which increases in course of time can
be measured at different time instances. Weather parameters are
maximum and minimum humidity, rain fall, maximum and minimum
temperature may effect the growth of the plant. The parameters of
pollution, water, soil, distance and crop management may be
dominant factors of growth of plant and its productivity. Considering
all parameters, the growth of the plant is very uncertain, fuzzy
environment can be considered for the prediction of shoot length at
maturity of the plant. Fuzzification plays a greater role for
fuzzification of data, which is based on certain membership
functions. Here an effort has been made to fuzzify the original data
based on gaussian function, triangular function, s-function,
Trapezoidal and L –function. After that all fuzzified data are
defuzzified to get normal form. Finally the error analysis
(calculation of forecasting error and average error) indicates the
membership function appropriate for fuzzification of data and use to
predict the shoot length at maturity. The result is also verified using
residual (Absolute Residual, Maximum of Absolute Residual, Mean
Absolute Residual, Mean of Mean Absolute Residual, Median of
Absolute Residual and Standard Deviation) analysis.
Abstract: This paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to forecast actual cost of a project based on the earned value management system (EVMS). For this purpose, some projects randomly selected based on the standard data set , and it is produced necessary progress data such as actual cost ,actual percent complete , baseline cost and percent complete for five periods of project. Then an ANN with five inputs and five outputs and one hidden layer is trained to produce forecasted actual costs. The comparison between real and forecasted data show better performance based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criterion. This approach could be applicable to better forecasting the project cost and result in decreasing the risk of project cost overrun, and therefore it is beneficial for planning preventive actions.
Abstract: In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based
Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent
variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic
variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation
rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate.
We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the
widely used linear autoregressive and nonlinear smoothing transition
autoregressive (STAR) models. The results are greatly in favour of
ANFIS indicating that is an effective tool for macroeconomic
forecasting used in academic research and in research and application
by the governmental and other institutions
Abstract: S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies.
However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead
to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology
forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be
discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other
forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in
technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages,
disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on
3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the
results will be discussed.
Abstract: In this paper we present a Feed-Foward Neural
Networks Autoregressive (FFNN-AR) model with genetic algorithms
training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product
growth of six countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted
regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the
initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum
weights from input-hidden layer of the training process. The
forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive
model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting
results outperform significant those of autoregressive model.
Moreover this technique can be used in Autoregressive-Moving
Average models, with and without exogenous inputs, as also the
training process with genetics algorithms optimization can be
replaced by the error back-propagation algorithm.
Abstract: In the oil and gas industry, energy prediction can help
the distributor and customer to forecast the outgoing and incoming
gas through the pipeline. It will also help to eliminate any
uncertainties in gas metering for billing purposes. The objective of
this paper is to develop Neural Network Model for energy
consumption and analyze the performance model. This paper
provides a comprehensive review on published research on the
energy consumption prediction which focuses on structures and the
parameters used in developing Neural Network models. This paper is
then focused on the parameter selection of the neural network
prediction model development for energy consumption and analysis
on the result. The most reliable model that gives the most accurate
result is proposed for the prediction. The result shows that the
proposed neural network energy prediction model is able to
demonstrate an adequate performance with least Root Mean Square
Error.
Abstract: This paper presents one comprehensive modelling approach for maintenance scheduling problem of thermal power units in competitive market. This problem is formulated as a 0/1 mixedinteger linear programming model. Model incorporates long-term bilateral contracts with defined profiles of power and price, and weekly forecasted market prices for market auction. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated through case study with detailed discussion.
Abstract: The theatre-auditorium under investigation following
the highly reflective characteristics of materials used in it (marble,
painted wood, smooth plaster, etc), architectural and structural
features of the Protocol and its intended use (very multifunctional:
Auditorium, theatre, cinema, musicals, conference room) from the
analysis of the statement of fact made by the acoustic simulation
software Ramsete and supported by data obtained through a
campaign of acoustic measurements of the state of fact made on the
spot by a Fonomet Svantek model SVAN 957, appears to be
acoustically inadequate. After the completion of the 3D model
according to the specifications necessary software used forecast in
order to be recognized by him, have made three simulations, acoustic
simulation of the state of and acoustic simulation of two design
solutions.
Improved noise characteristics found in the first design solution,
compared to the state in fact consists therefore in lowering
Reverberation Time that you turn most desirable value, while the
Indicators of Clarity, the Baricentric Time, the Lateral Efficiency,
Ratio of Low Tmedia BR and defined the Speech Intelligibility
improved significantly. Improved noise characteristics found instead
in the second design solution, as compared to first design solution, is
finally mostly in a more uniform distribution of Leq and in lowering
Reverberation Time that you turn the optimum values. Indicators of
Clarity, and the Lateral Efficiency improve further but at the expense
of a value slightly worse than the BR. Slightly vary the remaining
indices.
Abstract: This paper deals with heterogeneous autoregressive
models of realized volatility (HAR-RV models) on high-frequency
data of stock indices in the USA. Its aim is to capture the behavior of
three groups of market participants trading on a daily, weekly and
monthly basis and assess their role in predicting the daily realized
volatility. The benefits of this work lies mainly in the application of
heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility on stock
indices in the USA with a special aim to analyze an impact of the
global financial crisis on applied models forecasting performance.
We use three data sets, the first one from the period before the global
financial crisis occurred in the years 2006-2007, the second one from
the period when the global financial crisis fully hit the U.S. financial
market in 2008-2009 years, and the last period was defined over
2010-2011 years. The model output indicates that estimated realized
volatility in the market is very much determined by daily traders and
in some cases excludes the impact of those market participants who
trade on monthly basis.
Abstract: Horizontal wells are proven to be better producers
because they can be extended for a long distance in the pay zone.
Engineers have the technical means to forecast the well productivity
for a given horizontal length. However, experiences have shown that
the actual production rate is often significantly less than that of
forecasted. It is a difficult task, if not impossible to identify the real
reason why a horizontal well is not producing what was forecasted.
Often the source of problem lies in the drilling of horizontal section
such as permeability reduction in the pay zone due to mud invasion
or snaky well patterns created during drilling. Although drillers aim
to drill a constant inclination hole in the pay zone, the more frequent
outcome is a sinusoidal wellbore trajectory. The two factors, which
play an important role in wellbore tortuosity, are the inclination and
side force at bit. A constant inclination horizontal well can only be
drilled if the bit face is maintained perpendicular to longitudinal axis
of bottom hole assembly (BHA) while keeping the side force nil at
the bit. This approach assumes that there exists no formation force at
bit. Hence, an appropriate BHA can be designed if bit side force and
bit tilt are determined accurately. The Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) is superior to existing analytical techniques. In this study, the
neural networks have been employed as a general approximation tool
for estimation of the bit side forces. A number of samples are
analyzed with ANN for parameters of bit side force and the results
are compared with exact analysis. Back Propagation Neural network
(BPN) is used to approximation of bit side forces. Resultant low
relative error value of the test indicates the usability of the BPN in
this area.
Abstract: Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics
in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake
occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main
subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is
estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the
Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research,
we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single
decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method
in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an
earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The
information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used
to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard
rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between
HRLPP and HRSD method.
Abstract: recurrent neural network (RNN) is an efficient tool for
modeling production control process as well as modeling services. In
this paper one RNN was combined with regression model and were
employed in order to be checked whether the obtained data by the
model in comparison with actual data, are valid for variable process
control chart. Therefore, one maintenance process in workshop of
Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC) was taken for illustration of
models. First, the regression was made for predicting the response
time of process based upon determined factors, and then the error
between actual and predicted response time as output and also the
same factors as input were used in RNN. Finally, according to
predicted data from combined model, it is scrutinized for test values
in statistical process control whether forecasting efficiency is
acceptable. Meanwhile, in training process of RNN, design of
experiments was set so as to optimize the RNN.
Abstract: This paper describes interconnection between
technical and economical making decision. The reason of this dealing
could be different: poor technical condition, change of substation
(electrical network) regime, power transformer owner budget deficit
and increasing of tariff on electricity. Establishing of recommended
practice as well as to give general advice and guidance in economical
sector, testing, diagnostic power transformers to establish its
conditions, identify problems and provide potential remedies.
Abstract: The river flow forecasting represents a crucial point to employ for improving a management policy addressed to the right use of water resources as well as for conjugating prevention and defense actions against environmental degradation. The difficulties occurring during the field activities encourage the development and implementation of operative computation and measuring methods addressed to time reduction for data acquisition and processing maintaining a good level of accuracy. Therefore, the aim of the present work is to test a new entropy based expeditive methodology for the evaluation of the rating curves on three gauged sections with different geometric and morphological characteristics. The methodology requires the choice of only three verticals along the measure section and the sampling of only the maximum velocity. The results underline how in most conditions the rating curves drawn can replace those built with classic methodologies, simplifying thus the procedures of data monitoring and calculation.
Abstract: The aim of a biological model is to understand the
integrated structure and behavior of complex biological systems as a
function of the underlying molecular networks to achieve simulation
and forecast of their operation. Although several approaches have
been introduced to take into account structural and environment
related features, relatively little attention has been given to represent
the behavior of biological systems. The Abstract Biological Process
(ABP) model illustrated in this paper is an object-oriented model
based on UML (the standard object-oriented language). Its main
objective is to bring into focus the functional aspects of the
biological system under analysis.