Abstract: The majority of existing predictors for time series are
model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the
identification of complex systems, usually involving system
identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of
time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually
generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other
chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of
parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor
(MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or
process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the
MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating
polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict
future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and
is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast
prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The
performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the
prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.