A Sociocybernetics Data Analysis Using Causality in Tourism Networks
The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical
model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in
particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was
carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our
interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General
Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships
associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of
appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases.
For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be
used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that
of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most
relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide
information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to
forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in
the immediate future.
[1] Bertalanffy L.V. (1968). General Systems Theory. Foundations,
Development, Applications. George Braziller, New York. 1968.
[2] Bertalanffy L.V. The History and Status of General Systems theory. In
Klir. G. (de. Trends in General Systems Theory, pp. 21-41. 1972.
[3] Beni M. C. "Sistema de turismo –SISTUR: estudo do turismo face à
moderna teoria de sistemas”. Turismo em Análise, vol. 1 (1). pp. 15-34.
1999.
[4] ISO (2010): ISO 26000; See: http://www.iso.org/iso/
discovering_iso_26000.pdf. 2010.
[5] EU. 2011. A renewed EU strategy 2011–14 for Corporate Social
Responsibility, COM (2011) 681 (available online: 25.10.2011).
Brussels: European Commission. Available
on: http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/sustainablebusiness/
files/csr/new-csr/act_en.pdf (06.11.2011). 2011.
[6] World Commission on Environment and Development. Our common
future. Oxford University Press: Oxford. 1987.
[7] Mulej M et al. Dialectical Systems Thinking and the Law of Requisite
Holism Concerning Innovation. Litchfield Park: Emergent Publications.
2013
[8] Mulej M, Kajzer S. "Ethic of inter-dependence and the law of requisite
holism”. In: Rebernik M, Mulej M, eds. 1998. STIQE '98. Maribor:
ISRUM et al., pp. 56–67. 1998.
[9] Štrukelj T, Mulej M, Sternad S. "Firm vision and policy innovations
toward social responsibility for firm's long-term survival”. In: Tipurić D,
Dabić M (ed.). Management, governance, and entrepreneurship: new
perspectives and challenges. Darwen: Access Press, pp. 200–216. 2012.
[10] EU. 2000. Lisbon European Council, 23 and 24 March 2000, Presidency
Conclusions (online). Available on:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/summits/lis1_en.htm (18.4.2013). 2000.
[11] Barroso M. Putting Corporate Social Responsibility at the Heart of our
Vision, speech delivered at the General Assembly of CSR Europe,
Brussels (11.6.2009). Available on:
http://www.csreurope.org/data/files/2009_ga/barroso_csreurope_speech
_final.pdf (19.4.2013). 2009.
[12] Lebe, S, S. and Milfelner, B. "Innovative organisation approach to
sustainable tourism development in rural areas.” Kybernetes, Vol. 35,
pp.1136-1146. 2006.
[13] WTO. "Enhacing the economic benefits of tourism for local
communities and poverty allevation”, WTO Madrid. 2002.
[14] Jafari, J. Encyclopedia of Tourism, Routledge, London. 2003.
[15] Pidd M. Cognitive mapping and SODA, in Pidd M., Tools for thinking
modeling management science, Chichester, John Wiley and Sons. 1996.
[16] Edgar, D.A. and Nisbet, L. (1996), "A matter of chaos – some issues for
hospitality businesses”. International Journal of Contemporary
Hospitality Management, Vol. 8 No. 2, pp. 6-9.1996.
[17] McKercher, B. "A chaos approach to tourism”, Tourism Management,
Vol. 20, pp. 425-34. 1999.
[18] Russell, R. and Faulkner, B. "Reliving the destination life cycle in
Coolangatta: a historical perspective on the rise, decline and
rejuvenation of an Australian seaside resort”, in Laws, E., Faulkner, B.
and Moscardo, G. (Eds), Embracing and Managing Change in Tourism:
International Case Studies, Routledge, London, pp. 95-115. 1998.
[19] Baggio R. and Sainaghi R.. "Complex and chaotic tourism systems:
towards a quantitative approach”. International Journal of
Contemporary Hospitality Management. Vol. 23(6), pp. 840-861. 2011.
[20] Woodside. A. "Applying Systems Thinking to Sustainable Golf
Tourism”. Journal of travel Research. Vol. 48-2. pp. 205-214. 2009.
[21] Nash. R. "Causal Network Methodology. Tourism Research
Applications”. Annals of Tourism Research. Vol. 33-4. pp.918-938.
2006.
[22] Cossette, P. and Audet, M. "Mapping of an idiosyncratyc schema.”
Journal of Management Studies, Vol. 29, 3, pp.325-347. 1992.
[23] Moretti. A. "Le mappe cognitive” in Costa G., Nacamulli R.C.D.(eds).
Manuale di organizzazione aziendale, Vol. 2, Torino. Utet. Mulej M et
al. 2013. Dialectical Systems Thinking and the Law of Requisite Holism
Concerning Innovation. Litchfield Park: Emergent Publications. 1997.
[24] Garcia, H., Aledo, A., Ortiz, G. "Análisis de mapas causales de impactos
del turismo residencial”. Empiria.Vol. 20, pp. 61-86. 2010.
[25] Merinero, R. and Pulido J.R. "Desarrollo turístico y dinámica relacional:
metodología de análisis para la gestión activa de destinos turísticos”
Cuadernos de turismo, Numº 23, pp.173-194. 2009.
[26] Esteve, P.F. and Lloret, M. "Coverage and invariability by structural
functions.” International Journal of General systems, Vol. 35, pp. 699-
706. 2006
[27] Esteve, P.F. and Lloret, M. "Coverage, invariability and orbits by
structural functions.” Kybernetes, Vol. 35, pp.1236-1240. 2006.
[28] Esteve, P.F. and Lloret, M. " Attractors, structural functions and the
water cycle,” Cybernetics and Systems: An International Journal, Vol
38, pp.401-409. 2007.
[29] Lloret, M., Esteve, P.F., Almenara, E. "Algorithm for qualitative análisis
of a system´s dependencies.” Kybernetes, Vol. 38, pp.1556-1565. 2009.
[30] Lloret, M., Villacampa, Y. and Usó, J.L. System-linkage: structural
functions and hierarchies. Cybernetics and Systems: An International
Journal. 29, 29-39. 1998.
[31] Alseda, LL., Llibre, M. and Misiurewicz, M. Combinatorial dynamics
and entropy in dimension one. World Scientific Publishing Co., Inc.,
River Edge, N.J. 2000.
[32] Block, L. and Coppel, W.A. Dynamics in one dimension. Spinger-
Verlag, Berlin. 1992.
[1] Bertalanffy L.V. (1968). General Systems Theory. Foundations,
Development, Applications. George Braziller, New York. 1968.
[2] Bertalanffy L.V. The History and Status of General Systems theory. In
Klir. G. (de. Trends in General Systems Theory, pp. 21-41. 1972.
[3] Beni M. C. "Sistema de turismo –SISTUR: estudo do turismo face à
moderna teoria de sistemas”. Turismo em Análise, vol. 1 (1). pp. 15-34.
1999.
[4] ISO (2010): ISO 26000; See: http://www.iso.org/iso/
discovering_iso_26000.pdf. 2010.
[5] EU. 2011. A renewed EU strategy 2011–14 for Corporate Social
Responsibility, COM (2011) 681 (available online: 25.10.2011).
Brussels: European Commission. Available
on: http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/sustainablebusiness/
files/csr/new-csr/act_en.pdf (06.11.2011). 2011.
[6] World Commission on Environment and Development. Our common
future. Oxford University Press: Oxford. 1987.
[7] Mulej M et al. Dialectical Systems Thinking and the Law of Requisite
Holism Concerning Innovation. Litchfield Park: Emergent Publications.
2013
[8] Mulej M, Kajzer S. "Ethic of inter-dependence and the law of requisite
holism”. In: Rebernik M, Mulej M, eds. 1998. STIQE '98. Maribor:
ISRUM et al., pp. 56–67. 1998.
[9] Štrukelj T, Mulej M, Sternad S. "Firm vision and policy innovations
toward social responsibility for firm's long-term survival”. In: Tipurić D,
Dabić M (ed.). Management, governance, and entrepreneurship: new
perspectives and challenges. Darwen: Access Press, pp. 200–216. 2012.
[10] EU. 2000. Lisbon European Council, 23 and 24 March 2000, Presidency
Conclusions (online). Available on:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/summits/lis1_en.htm (18.4.2013). 2000.
[11] Barroso M. Putting Corporate Social Responsibility at the Heart of our
Vision, speech delivered at the General Assembly of CSR Europe,
Brussels (11.6.2009). Available on:
http://www.csreurope.org/data/files/2009_ga/barroso_csreurope_speech
_final.pdf (19.4.2013). 2009.
[12] Lebe, S, S. and Milfelner, B. "Innovative organisation approach to
sustainable tourism development in rural areas.” Kybernetes, Vol. 35,
pp.1136-1146. 2006.
[13] WTO. "Enhacing the economic benefits of tourism for local
communities and poverty allevation”, WTO Madrid. 2002.
[14] Jafari, J. Encyclopedia of Tourism, Routledge, London. 2003.
[15] Pidd M. Cognitive mapping and SODA, in Pidd M., Tools for thinking
modeling management science, Chichester, John Wiley and Sons. 1996.
[16] Edgar, D.A. and Nisbet, L. (1996), "A matter of chaos – some issues for
hospitality businesses”. International Journal of Contemporary
Hospitality Management, Vol. 8 No. 2, pp. 6-9.1996.
[17] McKercher, B. "A chaos approach to tourism”, Tourism Management,
Vol. 20, pp. 425-34. 1999.
[18] Russell, R. and Faulkner, B. "Reliving the destination life cycle in
Coolangatta: a historical perspective on the rise, decline and
rejuvenation of an Australian seaside resort”, in Laws, E., Faulkner, B.
and Moscardo, G. (Eds), Embracing and Managing Change in Tourism:
International Case Studies, Routledge, London, pp. 95-115. 1998.
[19] Baggio R. and Sainaghi R.. "Complex and chaotic tourism systems:
towards a quantitative approach”. International Journal of
Contemporary Hospitality Management. Vol. 23(6), pp. 840-861. 2011.
[20] Woodside. A. "Applying Systems Thinking to Sustainable Golf
Tourism”. Journal of travel Research. Vol. 48-2. pp. 205-214. 2009.
[21] Nash. R. "Causal Network Methodology. Tourism Research
Applications”. Annals of Tourism Research. Vol. 33-4. pp.918-938.
2006.
[22] Cossette, P. and Audet, M. "Mapping of an idiosyncratyc schema.”
Journal of Management Studies, Vol. 29, 3, pp.325-347. 1992.
[23] Moretti. A. "Le mappe cognitive” in Costa G., Nacamulli R.C.D.(eds).
Manuale di organizzazione aziendale, Vol. 2, Torino. Utet. Mulej M et
al. 2013. Dialectical Systems Thinking and the Law of Requisite Holism
Concerning Innovation. Litchfield Park: Emergent Publications. 1997.
[24] Garcia, H., Aledo, A., Ortiz, G. "Análisis de mapas causales de impactos
del turismo residencial”. Empiria.Vol. 20, pp. 61-86. 2010.
[25] Merinero, R. and Pulido J.R. "Desarrollo turístico y dinámica relacional:
metodología de análisis para la gestión activa de destinos turísticos”
Cuadernos de turismo, Numº 23, pp.173-194. 2009.
[26] Esteve, P.F. and Lloret, M. "Coverage and invariability by structural
functions.” International Journal of General systems, Vol. 35, pp. 699-
706. 2006
[27] Esteve, P.F. and Lloret, M. "Coverage, invariability and orbits by
structural functions.” Kybernetes, Vol. 35, pp.1236-1240. 2006.
[28] Esteve, P.F. and Lloret, M. " Attractors, structural functions and the
water cycle,” Cybernetics and Systems: An International Journal, Vol
38, pp.401-409. 2007.
[29] Lloret, M., Esteve, P.F., Almenara, E. "Algorithm for qualitative análisis
of a system´s dependencies.” Kybernetes, Vol. 38, pp.1556-1565. 2009.
[30] Lloret, M., Villacampa, Y. and Usó, J.L. System-linkage: structural
functions and hierarchies. Cybernetics and Systems: An International
Journal. 29, 29-39. 1998.
[31] Alseda, LL., Llibre, M. and Misiurewicz, M. Combinatorial dynamics
and entropy in dimension one. World Scientific Publishing Co., Inc.,
River Edge, N.J. 2000.
[32] Block, L. and Coppel, W.A. Dynamics in one dimension. Spinger-
Verlag, Berlin. 1992.
@article{"International Journal of Business, Human and Social Sciences:55722", author = "M. Lloret-Climent and J. Nescolarde-Selva", title = "A Sociocybernetics Data Analysis Using Causality in Tourism Networks", abstract = "The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical
model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in
particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was
carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our
interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General
Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships
associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of
appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases.
For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be
used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that
of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most
relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide
information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to
forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in
the immediate future.
", keywords = "Attractor, invariant set, orbits, tourist variables.", volume = "8", number = "8", pages = "2439-7", }
