Abstract: Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.
Abstract: Heart disease (HD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the modern society. Medical diagnosis is an important but complicated task that should be performed accurately and efficiently and its automation would be very useful. All doctors are unfortunately not equally skilled in every sub specialty and they are in many places a scarce resource. A system for automated medical diagnosis would enhance medical care and reduce costs. In this paper, a new approach based on coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) was presented for prediction of heart disease. The proposed CANFIS model combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy logic qualitative approach which is then integrated with genetic algorithm to diagnose the presence of the disease. The performances of the CANFIS model were evaluated in terms of training performances and classification accuracies and the results showed that the proposed CANFIS model has great potential in predicting the heart disease.
Abstract: The object of this work is the probabilistic performance evaluation of safety instrumented systems (SIS), i.e. the average probability of dangerous failure on demand (PFDavg) and the average frequency of failure (PFH), taking into account the uncertainties related to the different parameters that come into play: failure rate (λ), common cause failure proportion (β), diagnostic coverage (DC)... This leads to an accurate and safe assessment of the safety integrity level (SIL) inherent to the safety function performed by such systems. This aim is in keeping with the requirement of the IEC 61508 standard with respect to handling uncertainty. To do this, we propose an approach that combines (1) Monte Carlo simulation and (2) fuzzy sets. Indeed, the first method is appropriate where representative statistical data are available (using pdf of the relating parameters), while the latter applies in the case characterized by vague and subjective information (using membership function). The proposed approach is fully supported with a suitable computer code.
Abstract: The selection for plantation of a particular type of
mustard plant depending on its productivity (pod yield) at the stage
of maturity. The growth of mustard plant dependent on some
parameters of that plant, these are shoot length, number of leaves,
number of roots and roots length etc. As the plant is growing, some
leaves may be fall down and some new leaves may come, so it can
not gives the idea to develop the relationship with the seeds weight at
mature stage of that plant. It is not possible to find the number of
roots and root length of mustard plant at growing stage that will be
harmful of this plant as roots goes deeper to deeper inside the land.
Only the value of shoot length which increases in course of time can
be measured at different time instances. Weather parameters are
maximum and minimum humidity, rain fall, maximum and minimum
temperature may effect the growth of the plant. The parameters of
pollution, water, soil, distance and crop management may be
dominant factors of growth of plant and its productivity. Considering
all parameters, the growth of the plant is very uncertain, fuzzy
environment can be considered for the prediction of shoot length at
maturity of the plant. Fuzzification plays a greater role for
fuzzification of data, which is based on certain membership
functions. Here an effort has been made to fuzzify the original data
based on gaussian function, triangular function, s-function,
Trapezoidal and L –function. After that all fuzzified data are
defuzzified to get normal form. Finally the error analysis
(calculation of forecasting error and average error) indicates the
membership function appropriate for fuzzification of data and use to
predict the shoot length at maturity. The result is also verified using
residual (Absolute Residual, Maximum of Absolute Residual, Mean
Absolute Residual, Mean of Mean Absolute Residual, Median of
Absolute Residual and Standard Deviation) analysis.
Abstract: This paper deals with the application of a fuzzy set in
measuring teachers- beliefs about mathematics. The vagueness of
beliefs was transformed into standard mathematical values using a
fuzzy preferences model. The study employed a fuzzy approach
questionnaire which consists of six attributes for measuring
mathematics teachers- beliefs about mathematics. The fuzzy conjoint
analysis approach based on fuzzy set theory was used to analyze the
data from twenty three mathematics teachers from four secondary
schools in Terengganu, Malaysia. Teachers- beliefs were recorded in
form of degrees of similarity and its levels of agreement. The
attribute 'Drills and practice is one of the best ways of learning
mathematics' scored the highest degree of similarity at 0. 79860 with
level of 'strongly agree'. The results showed that the teachers- beliefs
about mathematics were varied. This is shown by different levels of
agreement and degrees of similarity of the measured attributes.
Abstract: For collecting data from all sensor nodes, some
changes in Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) protocol is proposed. At
each hop level, route-ranking technique is used for distributing
packets to different selected routes dynamically. For calculating rank
of a route, different parameters like: delay, residual energy and
probability of packet loss are used. A hybrid topology of
DMPR(Disjoint Multi Path Routing) and MMPR(Meshed Multi Path
Routing) is formed, where braided topology is used in different
faulty zones of network. For reducing energy consumption, variant
transmission ranges is used instead of fixed transmission range. For
reducing number of packet drop, a fuzzy logic inference scheme is
used to insert different types of delays dynamically. A rule based
system infers membership function strength which is used to
calculate the final delay amount to be inserted into each of the node
at different clusters.
In braided path, a proposed 'Dual Line ACK Link'scheme is
proposed for sending ACK signal from a damaged node or link to a
parent node to ensure that any error in link or any node-failure
message may not be lost anyway. This paper tries to design the
theoretical aspects of a model which may be applied for collecting
data from any large hanging iron structure with the help of wireless
sensor network. But analyzing these data is the subject of material
science and civil structural construction technology, that part is out
of scope of this paper.
Abstract: Dichotomization of the outcome by a single cut-off point is an important part of various medical studies. Usually the relationship between the resulted dichotomized dependent variable and explanatory variables is analyzed with linear regression, probit regression or logistic regression. However, in many real-life situations, a certain cut-off point dividing the outcome into two groups is unknown and can be specified only approximately, i.e. surrounded by some (small) uncertainty. It means that in order to have any practical meaning the regression model must be robust to this uncertainty. In this paper, we show that neither the beta in the linear regression model, nor its significance level is robust to the small variations in the dichotomization cut-off point. As an alternative robust approach to the problem of uncertain medical categories, we propose to use the linear regression model with the fuzzy membership function as a dependent variable. This fuzzy membership function denotes to what degree the value of the underlying (continuous) outcome falls below or above the dichotomization cut-off point. In the paper, we demonstrate that the linear regression model of the fuzzy dependent variable can be insensitive against the uncertainty in the cut-off point location. In the paper we present the modeling results from the real study of low hemoglobin levels in infants. We systematically test the robustness of the binomial regression model and the linear regression model with the fuzzy dependent variable by changing the boundary for the category Anemia and show that the behavior of the latter model persists over a quite wide interval.
Abstract: In data mining, the association rules are used to find
for the associations between the different items of the transactions
database. As the data collected and stored, rules of value can be found
through association rules, which can be applied to help managers
execute marketing strategies and establish sound market frameworks.
This paper aims to use Fuzzy Frequent Pattern growth (FFP-growth)
to derive from fuzzy association rules. At first, we apply fuzzy
partition methods and decide a membership function of quantitative
value for each transaction item. Next, we implement FFP-growth
to deal with the process of data mining. In addition, in order to
understand the impact of Apriori algorithm and FFP-growth algorithm
on the execution time and the number of generated association
rules, the experiment will be performed by using different sizes of
databases and thresholds. Lastly, the experiment results show FFPgrowth
algorithm is more efficient than other existing methods.
Abstract: The theory of rough sets is generalized by using a
filter. The filter is induced by binary relations and it is used to
generalize the basic rough set concepts. The knowledge
representations and processing of binary relations in the style of
rough set theory are investigated.
Abstract: A prototype of an anomaly detection system was
developed to automate process of recognizing an anomaly of
roentgen image by utilizing fuzzy histogram hyperbolization image
enhancement and back propagation artificial neural network.
The system consists of image acquisition, pre-processor, feature
extractor, response selector and output. Fuzzy Histogram
Hyperbolization is chosen to improve the quality of the roentgen
image. The fuzzy histogram hyperbolization steps consist of
fuzzyfication, modification of values of membership functions and
defuzzyfication. Image features are extracted after the the quality of
the image is improved. The extracted image features are input to the
artificial neural network for detecting anomaly. The number of nodes
in the proposed ANN layers was made small.
Experimental results indicate that the fuzzy histogram
hyperbolization method can be used to improve the quality of the
image. The system is capable to detect the anomaly in the roentgen
image.
Abstract: In this paper, based on a novel synthesis, a set of new simplified circuit design to implement the linguistic-hedge operations for adjusting the fuzzy membership function set is presented. The circuits work in current-mode and employ floating-gate MOS (FGMOS) transistors that operate in weak inversion region. Compared to the other proposed circuits, these circuits feature severe reduction of the elements number, low supply voltage (0.7V), low power consumption (60dB). In this paper, a set of fuzzy linguistic hedge circuits, including absolutely, very, much more, more, plus minus, more or less and slightly, has been implemented in 0.18 mm CMOS process. Simulation results by Hspice confirm the validity of the proposed design technique and show high performance of the circuits.
Abstract: The notions of I-vague normal groups with membership
and non-membership functions taking values in an involutary dually
residuated lattice ordered semigroup are introduced which generalize
the notions with truth values in a Boolean algebra as well as those
usual vague sets whose membership and non-membership functions
taking values in the unit interval [0, 1]. Various operations and
properties are established.
Abstract: In this paper we present, propose and examine
additional membership functions for the Smoothing Transition
Autoregressive (STAR) models. More specifically, we present the
tangent hyperbolic, Gaussian and Generalized bell functions.
Because Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models
follow fuzzy logic approach, more fuzzy membership functions
should be tested. Furthermore, fuzzy rules can be incorporated or
other training or computational methods can be applied as the error
backpropagation or genetic algorithm instead to nonlinear squares.
We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the
inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.
Abstract: In this research, the researchers have managed to
design a model to investigate the current trend of stock price of the
"IRAN KHODRO corporation" at Tehran Stock Exchange by
utilizing an Adaptive Neuro - Fuzzy Inference system. For the Longterm
Period, a Neuro-Fuzzy with two Triangular membership
functions and four independent Variables including trade volume,
Dividend Per Share (DPS), Price to Earning Ratio (P/E), and also
closing Price and Stock Price fluctuation as an dependent variable are
selected as an optimal model. For the short-term Period, a neureo –
fuzzy model with two triangular membership functions for the first
quarter of a year, two trapezoidal membership functions for the
Second quarter of a year, two Gaussian combination membership
functions for the third quarter of a year and two trapezoidal
membership functions for the fourth quarter of a year were selected
as an optimal model for the stock price forecasting. In addition, three
independent variables including trade volume, price to earning ratio,
closing Stock Price and a dependent variable of stock price
fluctuation were selected as an optimal model. The findings of the
research demonstrate that the trend of stock price could be forecasted
with the lower level of error.
Abstract: Fuzzy random variables have been introduced as an imprecise concept of numeric values for characterizing the imprecise knowledge. The descriptive parameters can be used to describe the primary features of a set of fuzzy random observations. In fuzzy environments, the expected values are usually represented as fuzzy-valued, interval-valued or numeric-valued descriptive parameters using various metrics. Instead of the concept of area metric that is usually adopted in the relevant studies, the numeric expected value is proposed by the concept of distance metric in this study based on two characters (fuzziness and randomness) of FRVs. Comparing with the existing measures, although the results show that the proposed numeric expected value is same with those using the different metric, if only triangular membership functions are used. However, the proposed approach has the advantages of intuitiveness and computational efficiency, when the membership functions are not triangular types. An example with three datasets is provided for verifying the proposed approach.
Abstract: In the literature of information theory, there is
necessity for comparing the different measures of fuzzy entropy and
this consequently, gives rise to the need for normalizing measures of
fuzzy entropy. In this paper, we have discussed this need and hence
developed some normalized measures of fuzzy entropy. It is also
desirable to maximize entropy and to minimize directed divergence
or distance. Keeping in mind this idea, we have explained the method
of optimizing different measures of fuzzy entropy.
Abstract: This paper investigates the optimization problem of
multi-product aggregate production planning (APP) with fuzzy data.
From a comprehensive viewpoint of conserving the fuzziness of input
information, this paper proposes a method that can completely
describe the membership function of the performance measure. The
idea is based on the well-known Zadeh-s extension principle which
plays an important role in fuzzy theory. In the proposed solution
procedure, a pair of mathematical programs parameterized by
possibility level a is formulated to calculate the bounds of the
optimal performance measure at a . Then the membership function of
the optimal performance measure is constructed by enumerating
different values of a . Solutions obtained from the proposed method
contain more information, and can offer more chance to achieve the
feasible disaggregate plan. This is helpful to the decision-maker in
practical applications.
Abstract: In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit
are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion
periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy
inference system with triangular membership function. We examine
the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of
sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the
Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms
significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period.
This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more
reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.
Abstract: In this study, control performance of a smart base
isolation system consisting of a friction pendulum system (FPS) and a
magnetorheological (MR) damper has been investigated. A fuzzy
logic controller (FLC) is used to modulate the MR damper so as to
minimize structural acceleration while maintaining acceptable base
displacement levels. To this end, a multi-objective optimization
scheme is used to optimize parameters of membership functions and
find appropriate fuzzy rules. To demonstrate effectiveness of the
proposed multi-objective genetic algorithm for FLC, a numerical
study of a smart base isolation system is conducted using several
historical earthquakes. It is shown that the proposed method can find
optimal fuzzy rules and that the optimized FLC outperforms not only a
passive control strategy but also a human-designed FLC and a
conventional semi-active control algorithm.
Abstract: This paper deals with the extraction of information from the experts to automatically identify and recognize Ganoderma infection in oil palm stem using tomography images. Expert-s knowledge are used as rules in a Fuzzy Inference Systems to classify each individual patterns observed in he tomography image. The classification is done by defining membership functions which assigned a set of three possible hypotheses : Ganoderma infection (G), non Ganoderma infection (N) or intact stem tissue (I) to every abnormalities pattern found in the tomography image. A complete comparison between Mamdani and Sugeno style,triangular, trapezoids and mixed triangular-trapezoids membership functions and different methods of aggregation and defuzzification is also presented and analyzed to select suitable Fuzzy Inference System methods to perform the above mentioned task. The results showed that seven out of 30 initial possible combination of available Fuzzy Inference methods in MATLAB Fuzzy Toolbox were observed giving result close to the experts estimation.