Abstract: In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based
Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent
variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic
variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation
rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate.
We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the
widely used linear autoregressive and nonlinear smoothing transition
autoregressive (STAR) models. The results are greatly in favour of
ANFIS indicating that is an effective tool for macroeconomic
forecasting used in academic research and in research and application
by the governmental and other institutions
Abstract: This study1 holds for the formation of international financial crisis and political factors for economic crisis in Turkey, are evaluated in chronological order. The international arena and relevant studies conducted in Turkey work in the literature are assessed. The main purpose of the study is to hold the linkage between the crises and political stability in Turkey in details, and to examine the position of Turkey in this regard. The introduction part follows the literature survey on the models explaining causes and results of the crises, the second part of the study. In the third part, the formations of the world financial crises are studied. The fourth part, financial crisis in Turkey in 1994, 2000, 2001 and 2008 are reviewed and their political reasons are analyzed. In the last part of the study the results and recommendations are held. Political administrations have laid the grounds for an economic crisis in Turkey. In this study, the emergence of an economic crisis in Turkey and the developments after the crisis are chronologically examined and an explanation is offered as to the cause and effect relationship between the political administration and economic equilibrium in the country. Economic crises can be characterized as follows: high prices of consumables, high interest rates, current account deficits, budget deficits, structural defects in government finance, rising inflation and fixed currency applications, rising government debt, declining savings rates and increased dependency on foreign capital stock. Entering into the conditions of crisis during a time when the exchange value of the country-s national currency was rising, speculative finance movements and shrinking of foreign currency reserves happened due to expectations for devaluation and because of foreign investors- resistance to financing national debt, and a financial risk occurs. During the February 2001 crisis and immediately following, devaluation and reduction of value occurred in Turkey-s stock market. While changing over to the system of floating exchange rates in the midst of this crisis, the effects of the crisis on the real economy are discussed in this study. Administered politics include financial reforms, such as the rearrangement of banking systems. These reforms followed with the provision of foreign financial support. There have been winners and losers in the imbalance of income distribution, which has recently become more evident in Turkey-s fragile economy.
Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to estimate the cost of road traffic accidents in Egypt. The Human Capital (HC) approach, specifically the Gross-Loss-of-Output methodology, is adopted for estimation. Moreover, cost values obtained by previous national literature are updated using the inflation rates. The results indicate an estimated cost of road traffic accidents in Egypt of approximately 10 billion Egyptian Pounds (about $US 1.8 billion) for the year 2008. In addition, it is expected that this cost will rise in 2009 to 11.8 billion Egyptian Pounds (about $US 2.1 billion).
Abstract: An inflation–extension test with human vena cava
inferior was performed with the aim to fit a material model. The vein
was modeled as a thick–walled tube loaded by internal pressure and
axial force. The material was assumed to be an incompressible
hyperelastic fiber reinforced continuum. Fibers are supposed to be
arranged in two families of anti–symmetric helices. Considered
anisotropy corresponds to local orthotropy. Used strain energy
density function was based on a concept of limiting strain
extensibility. The pressurization was comprised by four pre–cycles
under physiological venous loading (0 – 4kPa) and four cycles under
nonphysiological loading (0 – 21kPa). Each overloading cycle was
performed with different value of axial weight. Overloading data
were used in regression analysis to fit material model. Considered
model did not fit experimental data so good. Especially predictions
of axial force failed. It was hypothesized that due to
nonphysiological values of loading pressure and different values of
axial weight the material was not preconditioned enough and some
damage occurred inside the wall. A limiting fiber extensibility
parameter Jm was assumed to be in relation to supposed damage.
Each of overloading cycles was fitted separately with different values
of Jm. Other parameters were held the same. This approach turned out
to be successful. Variable value of Jm can describe changes in the
axial force – axial stretch response and satisfy pressure – radius
dependence simultaneously.
Abstract: The urban transformation processes in its framework
and its general significance became a fundamental and vital subject
of consideration for both the developed and the developing societies.
It has become important to regulate the architectural systems adopted
by the city, to sustain the present development on one hand, and on
the other hand, to facilitate its future growth.
Thus, the study dealt with the phenomenon of urban
transformation of the Mediterranean cities, and the city of Alexandria
in particular, because of its significant historical and cultural legacy,
its historical architecture and its contemporary urbanization.
This article investigates the entirety of cities in the Mediterranean
region through the analysis of the relationship between inflation and
growth of these cities and the extent of the complexity of the city
barriers. We hope to analyze not only the internal transformations,
but the external relationships (both imperial and post-colonial) that
have shaped Alexandria city growth from the nineteenth century until
today.
Abstract: In this paper we present, propose and examine
additional membership functions for the Smoothing Transition
Autoregressive (STAR) models. More specifically, we present the
tangent hyperbolic, Gaussian and Generalized bell functions.
Because Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models
follow fuzzy logic approach, more fuzzy membership functions
should be tested. Furthermore, fuzzy rules can be incorporated or
other training or computational methods can be applied as the error
backpropagation or genetic algorithm instead to nonlinear squares.
We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the
inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.
Abstract: According to the interaction of inflation and
unemployment, expectation of the rate of inflation in Croatia is
estimated. The interaction between inflation and unemployment is
shown by model based on three first-order differential i.e. difference
equations: Phillips relation, adaptive expectations equation and
monetary-policy equation. The resulting equation is second order
differential i.e. difference equation which describes the time path of
inflation. The data of the rate of inflation and the rate of
unemployment are used for parameters estimation. On the basis of
the estimated time paths, the stability and convergence analysis is
done for the rate of inflation.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of
market share and diversification on the nonlife insurers- performance.
The underlying relationships have been investigated in different
industries and different disciplines (economics, management...), still,
no consistency exists either in the magnitude or statistical
significance of the relationship between market share (and
diversification as well) on one side and companies- performance on
the other side. Moreover, the direction of the relationship is also
somewhat questionable. While some authors find this relationship to
be positive, the others reveal its negative association. In order to test
the influence of market share and diversification on companies-
performance in Croatian nonlife insurance industry for the period
from 1999 to 2009, we designed an empirical model in which we
included the following independent variables: firms- profitability
from previous years, market share, diversification and control
variables (i.e. ownership, industrial concentration, GDP per capita,
inflation). Using the two-step generalized method of moments
(GMM) estimator we found evidence of a positive and statistically
significant influence of both, market share and diversification, on
insurers- profitability.
Abstract: In this paper, an inventory model with finite and
constant replenishment rate, price dependant demand rate, time
value of money and inflation, finite time horizon, lead time and
exponential deterioration rate and with the objective of maximizing
the present worth of the total system profit is developed. Using a
dynamic programming based solution algorithm, the optimal
sequence of the cycles can be found and also different optimal
selling prices, optimal order quantities and optimal maximum
inventories can be obtained for the cycles with unequal lengths,
which have never been done before for this model. Also, a
numerical example is used to show accuracy of the solution
procedure.
Abstract: Coronary artery bypass grafts (CABG) are widely
studied with respect to hemodynamic conditions which play
important role in presence of a restenosis. However, papers which
concern with constitutive modeling of CABG are lacking in the
literature. The purpose of this study is to find a constitutive model for
CABG tissue. A sample of the CABG obtained within an autopsy
underwent an inflation–extension test. Displacements were
recoredered by CCD cameras and subsequently evaluated by digital
image correlation. Pressure – radius and axial force – elongation
data were used to fit material model. The tissue was modeled as onelayered
composite reinforced by two families of helical fibers. The
material is assumed to be locally orthotropic, nonlinear,
incompressible and hyperelastic. Material parameters are estimated
for two strain energy functions (SEF). The first is classical
exponential. The second SEF is logarithmic which allows
interpretation by means of limiting (finite) strain extensibility.
Presented material parameters are estimated by optimization based
on radial and axial equilibrium equation in a thick-walled tube. Both
material models fit experimental data successfully. The exponential
model fits significantly better relationship between axial force and
axial strain than logarithmic one.
Abstract: The strong international competition as the factor of rising economic development efficiency should not turn into destructive force for models of social orientation. What result Europe received from the accelerated integration without a long transition period of the accepted countries. Correlative relationship between the research and development expenditure and labor productivity, inflation and the rate economy's growth of the USA and the euro zone, employment and gross value added between Old and New Europe is analyzed in this article. The article estimates the differences in economic growth of Old and New Europe. Correlation rate between cycles of the euro area and the countries of Central and the Eastern Europe very much differs, though some of these countries have high correlation as members of the Economic and Monetary Union. Besides, the majority of the countries of Central and the Eastern Europe does not correspond to criteria of an optimum currency area.
Abstract: The study analyzed the risk and returns of commercial-property in Southwestern Nigeria and selected stocksmarket investment between 2000 and 2009; compared the inflation hedging characteristics and diversification potentials of investing in commercial-property and selected stock- market investment. Primary data were collected on characteristics, rental and capital values of commercial- properties from their property managers through the use of questionnaire. Secondary data on stock prices and dividends on banking, insurance and conglomerates sectors were sourced from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (2000-2009). The result showed that average return on all the selected stock- investments was higher than that of commercial-property. As regards risk, commercial-property indicated lower risk, compared to stocks. Also the stock-investment had better inflation hedging capacity than commercial-properties; combination of both had diversification potentials. The study concluded that stock-market investment offered attractive higher return than commercial-property although with higher risk and there could be diversification benefits in combining commercial-property with stock- investment.
Abstract: In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.
A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.
Abstract: The present research was focused to investigate the
role of investment in the course of economic growth with reference to
Pakistan. The study analyzed the role of the public and private
investment and impact of the political and macroeconomic
uncertainty on economic growth of Pakistan by using the vector
autoregressive approach (VAR). In long-run both public and private
investment showed a positive impact on economic growth but the
growth was largely driven by private investment as compared to
public investment. Government consumption expenditure, economic
uncertainty and political instability hampered the economic growth of
Pakistan. In short-run the private investment positively influences the
growth but there was negative and insignificant effect of the public
investment and government consumption expenditure on the growth.
There was a positive relationship found between economic
uncertainty (proxy for inflation) and GDP in short run.
Abstract: While the form of crises may change, their essence
remains the same (such as a cycle of abundant liquidity, rapid credit
growth, and a low-inflation environment followed by an asset-price
bubble). The current market turbulence began in mid-2000s when the
US economy shifted to imbalanced both internal and external
macroeconomic positions. We see two key causes of these problems
– loose US monetary policy in early 2000s and US government
guarantees issued on the securities by government-sponsored
enterprises what was further fueled by financial innovations such as
structured credit products. We have discovered both negative and
positive lessons deriving from this crisis and divided the negative
lessons into three groups: financial products and valuation, processes
and business models, and strategic issues. Moreover, we address key
risk management lessons and exit strategies derived from the current
crisis and recommend policies that should help diminish the negative
impact of future potential crises.
Abstract: There are little subjects in macroeconomics that are so
widely discussed, but at the same time controversial and without a
clear solution such as the choice of exchange rate regime. National
authorities need to take into consideration numerous fundamentals,
trying to fulfil goals of economic growth, low and stable inflation
and international stability. This paper focuses on the countries of ex-
Yugoslavia and their exchange rate history as independent states. We
follow the development of the regimes in 6 countries during the
transition through the financial crisis of the second part of the 2000s
to the prospects of their final goal: full membership in the European
Union. Main question is to what extent has the exchange regime
contributed to their economic success, considering other objective
factors.
Abstract: In textile industry, besides the conventional textile
products, technical textile goods, that have been brought external
functional properties into, are being developed for technical textile
industry. Especially these products produced with weaving
technology are widely preferred in areas such as sports, geology,
medical, automotive, construction and marine sectors. These textile
products are exposed to various stresses and large deformations under
typical conditions of use. At this point, sufficient and reliable data
could not be obtained with uniaxial tensile tests for determination of
the mechanical properties of such products due to mainly biaxial
stress state. Therefore, the most preferred method is a biaxial tensile
test method and analysis. These tests and analysis is applied to fabrics
with different functional features in order to establish the textile
material with several characteristics and mechanical properties of the
product. Planar biaxial tensile test, cylindrical inflation and bulge
tests are generally required to apply for textile products that are used
in automotive, sailing and sports areas and construction industry to
minimize accidents as long as their service life. Airbags, seat belts
and car tires in the automotive sector are also subject to the same
biaxial stress states, and can be characterized by same types of
experiments. In this study, in accordance with the research literature
related to the various biaxial test methods are compared. Results with
discussions are elaborated mainly focusing on the design of a biaxial
test apparatus to obtain applicable experimental data for developing a
finite element model. Sample experimental results on a prototype
system are expressed.
Abstract: The current situation in the eurozone raises a number of topics for discussion and to help in finding an answer to the question of whether a common currency is a more suitable means of coping with the impact of the financial crisis or whether national currencies are better suited to this. The economic situation in the EU is now considerably volatile and, due to problems with the fulfilment of the Maastricht convergence criteria, it is now being considered whether, in their further development, new member states will decide to distance themselves from the euro or will, in an attempt to overcome the crisis, speed up the adoption of the euro. The Czech Republic is one country with little interest in adopting the euro, justified by the fact that a better alternative to dealing with this crisis is an independent monetary policy and its ability to respond flexibly to the economic situation not only in Europe, but around the world. One attribute of the crisis in the Czech Republic and its mitigation is the freely floating exchange rate of the national currency. It is not only the Czech Republic that is attempting to alleviate the impact of the crisis, but also new EU member countries facing fresh questions to which theory have yet to provide wholly satisfactory answers. These questions undoubtedly include the problem of inflation targeting and the choice of appropriate instruments for achieving financial stability. The difficulty lies in the fact that these objectives may be contradictory and may require more than one means of achieving them. In this respect we may assume that membership of the euro zone might not in itself mitigate the development of the recession or protect the nation from future crises. We are of the opinion that the decisive factor in the development of any economy will continue to be the domestic economic policy and the operability of market economic mechanisms. We attempt to document this fact using selected countries as examples, these being the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia.
Abstract: Construction cost in India is increasing at around 50
per cent over the average inflation levels. It have registered increase
of up to 15 per cent every year, primarily due to cost of basic
building materials such as steel, cement, bricks, timber and other
inputs as well as cost of labour. As a result, the cost of construction
using conventional building materials and construction is becoming
beyond the affordable limits particularly for low-income groups of
population as well as a large cross section of the middle - income
groups. Therefore, there is a need to adopt cost-effective construction
methods either by up-gradation of traditional technologies using local
resources or applying modern construction materials and techniques
with efficient inputs leading to economic solutions. This has become
the most relevant aspect in the context of the large volume of housing
to be constructed in both rural and urban areas and the consideration
of limitations in the availability of resources such as building
materials and finance. This paper makes an overview of the housing
status in India and adoption of appropriate and cost effective
technologies in the country.
Abstract: The past decade has witnessed a good opportunities
for city development schemes in UK. The government encouraged
restoration of city centers to comprise mixed use developments with
high density residential apartments. Investments in regeneration areas
were doing well according to the analyses of Property Databank
(IPD). However, more recent analysis by IPD has shown that since
2007, property in regeneration areas has been more vulnerable to the
market downturn than other types of investment property. The early
stages of a property market downturn may be felt most in
regeneration where funding, investor confidence and occupier
demand would dissipate because the sector was considered more
marginal or risky when development costs rise. Moreover, the Bank
of England survey shows that lenders have sequentially tightened the
availability of credit for commercial real estate since mid-2007. A
sharp reduction in the willingness of banks to lend on commercial
property was recorded. The credit crunch has already affected
commercial property but its impact has been particularly severe in
certain kinds of properties where residential developments are
extremely difficult, in particular city centre apartments and buy-to-let
markets. Commercial property – retail, industrial leisure and mixed
use were also pressed, in Birmingham; tens of mixed use plots were
built to replace old factories in the heart of the city. The purpose of
these developments was to enable young professionals to work and
live in same place. Thousands of people lost their jobs during the
recession, moreover lending was more difficult and the future of
many developments is unknown. The recession casts its shadow upon
the society due to cuts in public spending by government, Inflation,
rising tuition fees and high rise in unemployment generated anger and
hatred was spreading among youth causing vandalism and riots in
many cities. Recent riots targeted many mixed used development in
the UK where banks, shops, restaurants and big stores were robbed
and set into fire leaving residents with horror and shock. This paper
examines the impact of the recession and riots on mixed use
development in UK.