Abstract: Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) according to
Markowitz states that investors form mean-variance efficient
portfolios which maximizes their utility. Markowitz proposed the
standard deviation as a simple measure for portfolio risk and the
lower semi-variance as the only risk measure of interest to rational
investors. This paper uses a third volatility estimator based on
intraday data and compares three efficient frontiers on the Croatian
Stock Market. The results show that range-based volatility estimator
outperforms both mean-variance and lower semi-variance model.
Abstract: Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.
Abstract: In general, reports are a form of representing data in
such way that user gets the information he needs. They can be built in
various ways, from the simplest (“select from") to the most complex
ones (results derived from different sources/tables with complex
formulas applied). Furthermore, rules of calculations could be written
as a program hard code or built in the database to be used by dynamic
code. This paper will introduce two types of reports, defined in the
DB structure. The main goal is to manage calculations in optimal
way, keeping maintenance of reports as simple and smooth as
possible.
Abstract: According to the interaction of inflation and
unemployment, expectation of the rate of inflation in Croatia is
estimated. The interaction between inflation and unemployment is
shown by model based on three first-order differential i.e. difference
equations: Phillips relation, adaptive expectations equation and
monetary-policy equation. The resulting equation is second order
differential i.e. difference equation which describes the time path of
inflation. The data of the rate of inflation and the rate of
unemployment are used for parameters estimation. On the basis of
the estimated time paths, the stability and convergence analysis is
done for the rate of inflation.
Abstract: The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant
aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are
considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the
approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel
(1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their
dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is
conducted.