Abstract: Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.
Abstract: The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant
aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are
considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the
approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel
(1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their
dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is
conducted.