Scenario Analysis of Indonesia's Energy Security by using a System-Dynamics Approach

Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.

A Case Study of Applying Virtual Prototyping in Construction

The use of 3D computer-aided design (CAD) models to support construction project planning has been increasing in the previous year. 3D CAD models reveal more planning ideas by visually showing the construction site environment in different stages of the construction process. Using 3D CAD models together with scheduling software to prepare construction plan can identify errors in process sequence and spatial arrangement, which is vital to the success of a construction project. A number of 4D (3D plus time) CAD tools has been developed and utilized in different construction projects due to the awareness of their importance. Virtual prototyping extends the idea of 4D CAD by integrating more features for simulating real construction process. Virtual prototyping originates from the manufacturing industry where production of products such as cars and airplanes are virtually simulated in computer before they are built in the factory. Virtual prototyping integrates 3D CAD, simulation engine, analysis tools (like structural analysis and collision detection), and knowledgebase to streamline the whole product design and production process. In this paper, we present the application of a virtual prototyping software which has been used in a few construction projects in Hong Kong to support construction project planning. Specifically, the paper presents an implementation of virtual prototyping in a residential building project in Hong Kong. The applicability, difficulties and benefits of construction virtual prototyping are examined based on this project.

A Study of the Relation of Wave Height and Erosion at Bangkhuntien Shoreline, Thailand

In this paper, the significant wave height at the Upper Gulf of Thailand and the changing of wave height at Bangkhuntien shoreline were simulated by using the Simulating WAves Nearshore Model (SWAN) version 40.51. The simulated results indicated that the significant wave height by SWAN model corresponded with the observed data. The results showed that the maximum significant wave height at the Bangkhuntien shoreline were 1.06-2.05 m. and the average significant wave height at the Bangkhuntien shoreline were 0.30-0.47 m. The significant wave height can be used to calculate the erosion through the Bangkhuntien shoreline. The erosion rates at the Bangkhuntien shoreline were prepared by using the aerial photo and they were about 1.80 m/yr. from 1980- 1986, 4.75 m/yr from 1987-1993, 15.28 m/yr from 1994-1996 and 10.03 m/yr from 1997-2002. The relation between the wave energy and the erosion were in good agreement. Therefore, the significant wave height was one of the major factors of the erosion at the Bangkhuntien shoreline.

Investigating Mental Workload of VR Training versus Serious Game Training on Shoot Operation Training

Thanks to VR technology advanced, there are many researches had used VR technology to develop a training system. Using VR characteristics can simulate many kinds of situations to reach our training-s goal. However, a good training system not only considers real simulation but also considers learner-s learning motivation. So, there are many researches started to conduct game-s features into VR training system. We typically called this is a serious game. It is using game-s features to engage learner-s learning motivation. However, VR or Serious game has another important advantage. That is simulating feature. Using this feature can create any kinds of pressured environments. Because in the real environment may happen any emergent situations. So, increasing the trainees- pressure is more important when they are training. Most pervious researches are investigated serious game-s applications and learning performance. Seldom researches investigated how to increase the learner-s mental workload when they are training. So, in our study, we will introduce a real case study and create two types training environments. Comparing the learner-s mental workload between VR training and serious game.

Energy Consumptions of Different Building Heating Systems for Various Meteorological Regions of Iran: A Comparison Study

To simulate heating systems in buildings, a research oriented computer code has been developed in Sharif University of Technology in Iran where the climate, existing heating equipment in buildings, consumer behavior and their interactions are considered for simulating energy consumption in conventional systems such as heaters, radiators and fan-coils. In order to validate the computer code, the available data of five buildings was used and the computed consumed energy was compared with the estimated energy extracted from monthly bills. The initial heating system was replaced by the alternative system and the effect of this change was observed on the energy consumption. As a result, the effect of changing heating equipment on energy consumption was investigated in different climates. Changing heater to radiator renders energy conservation up to 50% in all climates and changing radiator to fan-coil decreases energy consumption in climates with cold and dry winter.

Simulating Dynamics of Thoracolumbar Spine Derived from Life MOD under Haptic Forces

In this paper, the construction of a detailed spine model is presented using the LifeMOD Biomechanics Modeler. The detailed spine model is obtained by refining spine segments in cervical, thoracic and lumbar regions into individual vertebra segments, using bushing elements representing the intervertebral discs, and building various ligamentous soft tissues between vertebrae. In the sagittal plane of the spine, constant force will be applied from the posterior to anterior during simulation to determine dynamic characteristics of the spine. The force magnitude is gradually increased in subsequent simulations. Based on these recorded dynamic properties, graphs of displacement-force relationships will be established in terms of polynomial functions by using the least-squares method and imported into a haptic integrated graphic environment. A thoracolumbar spine model with complex geometry of vertebrae, which is digitized from a resin spine prototype, will be utilized in this environment. By using the haptic technique, surgeons can touch as well as apply forces to the spine model through haptic devices to observe the locomotion of the spine which is computed from the displacement-force relationship graphs. This current study provides a preliminary picture of our ongoing work towards building and simulating bio-fidelity scoliotic spine models in a haptic integrated graphic environment whose dynamic properties are obtained from LifeMOD. These models can be helpful for surgeons to examine kinematic behaviors of scoliotic spines and to propose possible surgical plans before spine correction operations.

3D Numerical Simulation of Scouring around Bridge Piers (Case Study: Bridge 524 Crosses the Tanana River)

Due to the three- dimensional flow pattern interacting with bed material, the process of local scour around bridge piers is complex. Modeling 3D flow field and scour hole evolution around a bridge pier is more feasible nowadays because the computational cost and computational time have significantly decreased. In order to evaluate local flow and scouring around a bridge pier, a completely three-dimensional numerical model, SSIIM program, was used. The model solves 3-D Navier-Stokes equations and a bed load conservation equation. The model was applied to simulate local flow and scouring around a bridge pier in a large natural river with four piers. Computation for 1 day of flood condition was carried out to predict the maximum local scour depth. The results show that the SSIIM program can be used efficiently for simulating the scouring in natural rivers. The results also showed that among the various turbulence models, the k-ω model gives more reasonable results.

Simulating Climate Change (Temperature and Soil Moisture) in a Mixed-Deciduous Forest, Ontario, Canada

To simulate expected climate change, we implemented a two-factor (temperature and soil moisture) field design in a forest in Ontario, Canada. To manipulate moisture input, we erected rain-exclusion structures. Under each structure, plots were watered with one of three treatments and thermally controlled with three heat treatments to simulate changes in air temperature and rainfall based on the climate model (GCM) predictions for the study area. Environmental conditions (including untreated controls) were monitored tracking air temperature, soil temperature, soil moisture, and photosynthetically active radiation. We measured rainfall and relative humidity at the site outside the rain-exclusion structures. Analyses of environmental conditions demonstrates that the temperature manipulation was most effective at maintaining target temperature during the early part of the growing season, but it was more difficult to keep the warmest treatment at 5º C above ambient by late summer. Target moisture regimes were generally achieved however incoming solar radiation was slightly attenuated by the structures.

Multilayer Soft Tissue Continuum Model: Towards Realistic Simulation of Facial Expressions

A biophysically based multilayer continuum model of the facial soft tissue composite has been developed for simulating wrinkle formation. The deformed state of the soft tissue block was determined by solving large deformation mechanics equations using the Galerkin finite element method. The proposed soft tissue model is composed of four layers with distinct mechanical properties. These include stratum corneum, epidermal-dermal layer (living epidermis and dermis), subcutaneous tissue and the underlying muscle. All the layers were treated as non-linear, isotropic Mooney Rivlin materials. Contraction of muscle fibres was approximated using a steady-state relationship between the fibre extension ratio, intracellular calcium concentration and active stress in the fibre direction. Several variations of the model parameters (stiffness and thickness of epidermal-dermal layer, thickness of subcutaneous tissue layer) have been considered.

An Empirical Formula for Seismic Test of Telecommunication Equipments

Antiseismic property of telecommunication equipment is very important for the grasp of the damage and the restoration after earthquake. Telecommunication business operators are regulating seismic standard for their equipments. These standards are organized to simulate the real seismic situations and usually define the minimum value of first natural frequency of the equipments or the allowable maximum displacement of top of the equipments relative to bottom. Using the finite element analysis, natural frequency can be obtained with high accuracy but the relative displacement of top of the equipments is difficult to predict accurately using the analysis. Furthermore, in the case of simulating the equipments with access floor, predicting the relative displacement of top of the equipments become more difficult. In this study, using enormous experimental datum, an empirical formula is suggested to forecast the relative displacement of top of the equipments. Also it can be known that which physical quantities are related with the relative displacement.

A Modification of Wireless and Internet Technologies for Logistics- Analysis

This research is designed for helping a WAPbased mobile phone-s user in order to analyze of logistics in the traffic area by applying and designing the accessible processes from mobile user to server databases. The research-s design comprises Mysql 4.1.8-nt database system for being the server which there are three sub-databases, traffic light – times of intersections in periods of the day, distances on the road of area-blocks where are divided from the main sample-area and speeds of sample vehicles (motorcycle, personal car and truck) in periods of the day. For interconnections between the server and user, PHP is used to calculate distances and travelling times from the beginning point to destination, meanwhile XHTML applied for receiving, sending and displaying data from PHP to user-s mobile. In this research, the main sample-area is focused at the Huakwang-Ratchada-s area, Bangkok, Thailand where usually the congested point and 6.25 km2 surrounding area which are split into 25 blocks, 0.25 km2 for each. For simulating the results, the designed server-database and all communicating models of this research have been uploaded to www.utccengineering.com/m4tg and used the mobile phone which supports WAP 2.0 XHTML/HTML multimode browser for observing values and displayed pictures. According to simulated results, user can check the route-s pictures from the requiring point to destination along with analyzed consuming times when sample vehicles travel in various periods of the day.

Experimental Investigation and Sensitivity Analysis for the Effects of Fracture Parameters to the Conductance Properties of Laterite

This experiment discusses the effects of fracture parameters such as depth, length, width, angle and the number of the fracture to the conductance properties of laterite using the DUK-2B digital electrical measurement system combined with the method of simulating the fractures. The results of experiment show that the changes of fracture parameters produce effects to the conductance properties of laterite. There is a clear degressive period of the conductivity of laterite during increasing the depth, length, width, or the angle and the quantity of fracture gradually. When the depth of fracture exceeds the half thickness of the soil body, the conductivity of laterite shows evidently non-linear diminishing pattern and the amplitude of decrease tends to increase. The length of fracture has fewer effects than the depth to the conductivity. When the width of fracture reaches some fixed values, the change of the conductivity is less sensitive to the change of the width, and at this time, the conductivity of laterite maintains at a stable level. When the angle of fracture is less than 45°, the decrease of the conductivity is more clearly as the angle increases. But when angle is more than 45°, change of the conductivity is relatively gentle as the angle increases. The increasing quantity of the fracture causes the other fracture parameters having great impact on the change of conductivity. When moisture content and temperature were unchanged, depth and angle of fractures are the major factors affecting the conductivity of laterite soil; quantity, length, and width are minor influencing factors. The sensitivity of fracture parameters affect conductivity of laterite soil is: depth >angles >quantity >length >width.

Earth Station Neural Network Control Methodology and Simulation

Renewable energy resources are inexhaustible, clean as compared with conventional resources. Also, it is used to supply regions with no grid, no telephone lines, and often with difficult accessibility by common transport. Satellite earth stations which located in remote areas are the most important application of renewable energy. Neural control is a branch of the general field of intelligent control, which is based on the concept of artificial intelligence. This paper presents the mathematical modeling of satellite earth station power system which is required for simulating the system.Aswan is selected to be the site under consideration because it is a rich region with solar energy. The complete power system is simulated using MATLAB–SIMULINK.An artificial neural network (ANN) based model has been developed for the optimum operation of earth station power system. An ANN is trained using a back propagation with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. The best validation performance is obtained for minimum mean square error. The regression between the network output and the corresponding target is equal to 96% which means a high accuracy. Neural network controller architecture gives satisfactory results with small number of neurons, hence better in terms of memory and time are required for NNC implementation. The results indicate that the proposed control unit using ANN can be successfully used for controlling the satellite earth station power system.

On the Numerical Approach for Simulating Thermal Hydraulics under Seismic Condition

The two-phase flow field and the motion of the free surface in an oscillating channel are simulated numerically to assess the methodology for simulating nuclear reacotr thermal hydraulics under seismic conditions. Two numerical methods are compared: one is to model the oscillating channel directly using the moving grid of the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian method, and the other is to simulate the effect of channel motion using the oscillating acceleration acting on the fluid in the stationary channel. The two-phase flow field in the oscillating channel is simulated using the level set method in both cases. The calculated results using the oscillating acceleration are found to coinside with those using the moving grid, and the theoretical back ground and the limitation of oscillating acceleration are discussed. It is shown that the change in the interfacial area between liquid and gas phases under seismic conditions is important for nuclear reactor thermal hydraulics.

Modeling Spatial Distributions of Point and Nonpoint Source Pollution Loadings in the Great Lakes Watersheds

A physically based, spatially-distributed water quality model is being developed to simulate spatial and temporal distributions of material transport in the Great Lakes Watersheds of the U.S. Multiple databases of meteorology, land use, topography, hydrography, soils, agricultural statistics, and water quality were used to estimate nonpoint source loading potential in the study watersheds. Animal manure production was computed from tabulations of animals by zip code area for the census years of 1987, 1992, 1997, and 2002. Relative chemical loadings for agricultural land use were calculated from fertilizer and pesticide estimates by crop for the same periods. Comparison of these estimates to the monitored total phosphorous load indicates that both point and nonpoint sources are major contributors to the total nutrient loads in the study watersheds, with nonpoint sources being the largest contributor, particularly in the rural watersheds. These estimates are used as the input to the distributed water quality model for simulating pollutant transport through surface and subsurface processes to Great Lakes waters. Visualization and GIS interfaces are developed to visualize the spatial and temporal distribution of the pollutant transport in support of water management programs.

Towards an Automatic Translation of Colored Petri Nets to Maude Language

Colored Petri Nets (CPN) are very known kind of high level Petri nets. With sound and complete semantics, rewriting logic is one of very powerful logics in description and verification of non-deterministic concurrent systems. Recently, CPN semantics are defined in terms of rewriting logic, allowing us to built models by formal reasoning. In this paper, we propose an automatic translation of CPN to the rewriting logic language Maude. This tool allows graphical editing and simulating CPN. The tool allows the user drawing a CPN graphically and automatic translating the graphical representation of the drawn CPN to Maude specification. Then, Maude language is used to perform the simulation of the resulted Maude specification. It is the first rewriting logic based environment for this category of Petri Nets.

Simulation of Online Communities Using MAS Social and Spatial Organisations

Online Communities are an example of sociallyaware, self-organising, complex adaptive computing systems. The multi-agent systems (MAS) paradigm coordinated by self-organisation mechanisms has been used as an effective way for the simulation and modeling of such systems. In this paper, we propose a model for simulating an online health community using a situated multi-agent system approach, governed by the co-evolution of the social and spatial organisations of the agents.

Optimisation of Polycyclic AromaticHydrocarbon Removal from Contaminated Soilusing Modified Fenton Treatment

The performance of modified Fenton (MF) treatment to promote PAH oxidation in artificially contaminated soil was investigated in packed soil column with a hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) delivery system simulating in situ injection. Soil samples were spiked with phenanthrene (low molecular weight PAH) and fluoranthene (high molecular weight PAH) to an initial concentration of 500 mg/kg dried soil each. The effectiveness of process parameters H2O2/soil, iron/soil, chelating agent/soil weight ratios and reaction time were studied using a 24 three level factorial design experiments. Statistically significant quadratic models were developed using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) for degrading PAHs from the soil samples. Optimum operating condition was achieved at mild range of H2O2/soil, iron/soil and chelating agent/soil weight ratios, indicating cost efficient method for treating highly contaminated lands.

A Modified Maximum Urgency First Scheduling Algorithm for Real-Time Tasks

This paper presents a modified version of the maximum urgency first scheduling algorithm. The maximum urgency algorithm combines the advantages of fixed and dynamic scheduling to provide the dynamically changing systems with flexible scheduling. This algorithm, however, has a major shortcoming due to its scheduling mechanism which may cause a critical task to fail. The modified maximum urgency first scheduling algorithm resolves the mentioned problem. In this paper, we propose two possible implementations for this algorithm by using either earliest deadline first or modified least laxity first algorithms for calculating the dynamic priorities. These two approaches are compared together by simulating the two algorithms. The earliest deadline first algorithm as the preferred implementation is then recommended. Afterwards, we make a comparison between our proposed algorithm and maximum urgency first algorithm using simulation and results are presented. It is shown that modified maximum urgency first is superior to maximum urgency first, since it usually has less task preemption and hence, less related overhead. It also leads to less failed non-critical tasks in overloaded situations.

Simulation of Thermal Storage Phase Change Material in Buildings

One of the potential and effective ways of storing thermal energy in buildings is the integration of brick with phase change materials (PCMs). This paper presents a two-dimensional model for simulating and analyzing of PCM in order to minimize energy consumption in the buildings. The numerical approach has been used with the real weather data of a selected city of Iran (Tehran). Two kinds of brick integrated PCM are investigated and compared base on outdoor weather conditions and the amount of energy consumption. The results show a significant reduction in maximum entering heat flux to building about 32.8% depending on PCM quantity. The results are analyzed by various temperature contour plots. The contour plots illustrated the time dependent mechanism of entering heat flux for a brick integrated with PCM. Further analysis is developed to investigate the effect of PCM location on the inlet heat flux. The results demonstrated that to achieve maximum performance of PCM it is better to locate PCM near the outdoor.