Abstract: Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.
Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of automatic parameter estimation in conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) models. Due to threshold structures commonly occurring in CRR models, the associated mathematical optimization problems have the significant characteristic of being strongly non-differentiable. In order to face this enormous task, the resolution method proposed adopts a smoothing strategy using a special C∞ differentiable class function. The final estimation solution is obtained by solving a sequence of differentiable subproblems which gradually approach the original conceptual problem. The use of this technique, called Hyperbolic Smoothing Method (HSM), makes possible the application of the most powerful minimization algorithms, and also allows for the main difficulties presented by the original CRR problem to be overcome. A set of computational experiments is presented for the purpose of illustrating both the reliability and the efficiency of the proposed approach.
Abstract: Accurate segmentation of the optic disc is very
important for computer-aided diagnosis of several ocular diseases
such as glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy, and hypertensive retinopathy.
The paper presents an accurate and fast optic disc detection and
segmentation method using an attention based fully convolutional
network. The network is trained from scratch using the fundus images
of extended MESSIDOR database and the trained model is used for
segmentation of optic disc. The false positives are removed based on
morphological operation and shape features. The result is evaluated
using three-fold cross-validation on six public fundus image databases
such as DIARETDB0, DIARETDB1, DRIVE, AV-INSPIRE, CHASE
DB1 and MESSIDOR. The attention based fully convolutional
network is robust and effective for detection and segmentation of
optic disc in the images affected by diabetic retinopathy and it
outperforms existing techniques.
Abstract: This research presents the first constant approximation
algorithm to the p-median network design problem with multiple
cable types. This problem was addressed with a single cable type and
there is a bifactor approximation algorithm for the problem. To the
best of our knowledge, the algorithm proposed in this paper is the first
constant approximation algorithm for the p-median network design
with multiple cable types. The addressed problem is a combination of
two well studied problems which are p-median problem and network
design problem. The introduced algorithm is a random sampling
approximation algorithm of constant factor which is conceived by
using some random sampling techniques form the literature. It is
based on a redistribution Lemma from the literature and a steiner tree
problem as a subproblem. This algorithm is simple, and it relies on the
notions of random sampling and probability. The proposed approach
gives an approximation solution with one constant ratio without
violating any of the constraints, in contrast to the one proposed in the
literature. This paper provides a (21 + 2)-approximation algorithm
for the p-median network design problem with multiple cable types
using random sampling techniques.
Abstract: In order to address the social factors of elderly health care, researcher and community members have turned to more inclusive and participatory approaches to research and interventions. One such approach, community-based participatory research (CBPR) in public health, has received increased attention as the academic and public health communities struggle to address the persistent problems of disparities in the use of health care and health outcomes for several over the past decade. As Thailand becomes an ageing society, health services and proper care systems specifically for the elderly group need to be prepared and well established. The purpose of this assignment was to study the health problems and was to explore the process of community participation in elderly health care. Participants in this study were member of elderly group of Paisanee Ramintra 65 community in Bangkok, Thailand. The results indicated two important components of community participation process in elderly health care: 1) a process to develop community participation in elderly health care, and 2) outcomes resulting from such process. The development of community participation consisted of four processes. As for the outcomes of the community participation development process, they consisted of elderly in the community got jointly and formulated a group, which strengthened the project because of collaborative supervision among themselves. Moreover, inactive health care services have changed to being energetic and focus on health promotion rather than medical achievement and elderly association of community can perform health care activities for chronically illness through the achievement of this development; consequently, they increasingly gained access to physical, cognitive, and social activity.
Abstract: The design of distribution logistics has a decisive impact on a company's logistics costs and performance. Hence, such solutions make an essential contribution to corporate success. This article describes a decision support system for analyzing the potential of distribution logistics in terms of logistics costs and performance. In contrast to previous procedures of business process re-engineering (BPR), this method maps distribution logistics holistically under variable distribution structures. Combined with qualitative measures the decision support system will contribute to a more efficient design of distribution logistics.
Abstract: This paper presents the findings of successful implementation of Business Process Reengineering (BPR) of cement dispatch activities in a cement manufacturing plant located in India. Simulation model was developed for the purpose of identifying and analyzing the areas for improvement. The company was facing a problem of low throughput rate and subsequent forced stoppages of the plant leading to a high production loss of 15000MT per month. It was found from the study that the present systems and procedures related to the in-plant logistics plant required significant changes. The major recommendations included process improvement at the entry gate, reducing the cycle time at the security gate and installation of an additional weigh bridge. This paper demonstrates how BPR can be implemented for improving the in-plant logistics process. Various recommendations helped the plant to increase its throughput by 14%.
Abstract: The process of human resources management in the structures of corporate groups demonstrates certain specificity, resulting from the division of decision-making and executive competencies, which occurs within these structures between a parent company and its subsidiaries. The subprocess of employee assessment is considered crucial, since it provides information for the implementation of personnel function. The empirical studies conducted in corporate groups, within which at least one company is located in Poland, confirmed the critical significance of employee assessment systems in the process of human resources management in corporate groups. Parent companies, most often, retain their decision-making authority within the framework of the discussed process and introduce uniform employee assessment and personnel controlling systems to subsidiary companies. However, the instruments for employee assessment applied in corporate groups do not present such specificity.
Abstract: The current study investigated the influence of milling
time and ball-to-powder (BPR) weight ratio on the microstructural
constituents and mechanical properties of bulk nanocrystalline Al;
Al-10%Cu; and Al-10%Cu-5%Ti alloys. Powder consolidation was
carried out using a high frequency induction heat sintering where the
processed metal powders were sintered into a dense and strong bulk
material. The powders and the bulk samples were characterized using
XRD and FEGSEM techniques. The mechanical properties were
evaluated at various temperatures of 25°C, 100°C, 200°C, 300°C and
400°C to study the thermal stability of the processed alloys. The
processed bulk nanocrystalline alloys displayed extremely high
hardness values even at elevated temperatures. The Al-10%Cu-5%Ti
alloy displayed the highest hardness values at room and elevated
temperatures which are related to the presence of Ti-containing
phases such as Al3Ti and AlCu2Ti. These phases are thermally stable
and retain the high hardness values at elevated temperatures up to
400ºC.
Abstract: The integrated problem of production and distribution scheduling is relevant in many industrial applications. Thus, many heuristics to solve this integrated problem have been developed in the last decade. Most of these heuristics use a sequential working principal or a single decomposition and integration approach to separate and solve subproblems. A heuristic using a multi step decomposition and integration approach is presented in this paper and evaluated in a case study. The result show significant improved results compared with sequential scheduling heuristics.
Abstract: In this article, a new inexact alternating direction method(ADM) is proposed for solving a class of variational inequality problems. At each iteration, the new method firstly solves the resulting subproblems of ADM approximately to generate an temporal point ˜xk, and then the multiplier yk is updated to get the new iterate yk+1. In order to get xk+1, we adopt a new descent direction which is simple compared with the existing prediction-correction type ADMs. For the inexact ADM, the resulting proximal subproblem has closedform solution when the proximal parameter and inexact term are chosen appropriately. We show the efficiency of the inexact ADM numerically by some preliminary numerical experiments.
Abstract: The problem of N cracks interaction in an isotropic
elastic solid is decomposed into a subproblem of a homogeneous solid
without crack and N subproblems with each having a single crack
subjected to unknown tractions on the two crack faces. The unknown
tractions, namely pseudo tractions on each crack are expanded into
polynomials with unknown coefficients, which have to be determined
by the consistency condition, i.e. by the equivalence of the original
multiple cracks interaction problem and the superposition of the N+1
subproblems. In this paper, Kachanov-s approach of average tractions
is extended into the method of moments to approximately impose the
consistence condition. Hence Kachanov-s method can be viewed as
the zero-order method of moments. Numerical results of the stress
intensity factors are presented for interactions of two collinear cracks,
three collinear cracks, two parallel cracks, and three parallel cracks.
As the order of moment increases, the accuracy of the method of
moments improves.
Abstract: Business Process Reengineering (BPR) is an essential tool before an information system project implementation. Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) projects definitely require the standardization and fixation of business processes from customer order to shipment. Therefore, ERP implementations are well proven to be coupled with BPR, although the extend and timing of BPR with respect to ERP implementation differ. This study aims at analyzing the effects of BPR on ERP implementation success. Basing on two Turkish ERP implementations in pharmaceutical sector, a comparative study is performed. One of the ERP implementations took place after a BPR implementation, whereas the other implementation was without a prior BPR application. Both implementations have been realized with the same consultant team, the case with prior BPR implementation going live first. The results of the case study reveal that if business processes are not optimized and improved before an ERP implementation, ERP live system would face with disharmony problems of processes and processes automated by ERP. This suggests a definite precedence relationship between BPR and ERP applications
Abstract: Solar power plants(SPPs) have shown a lot of good outcomes
in providing a various functions depending on industrial expectations by
deploying ad-hoc networking with helps of light loaded and battery powered
sensor nodes. In particular, it is strongly requested to develop an algorithm to
deriver the sensing data from the end node of solar power plants to the sink node
on time. In this paper, based on the above observation we have proposed an
IEEE802.15.4 based self routing scheme for solar power plants. The proposed
beacon based priority routing Algorithm (BPRA) scheme utilizes beacon
periods in sending message with embedding the high priority data and thus
provides high quality of service(QoS) in the given criteria. The performance
measures are the packet Throughput, delivery, latency, total energy
consumption. Simulation results under TinyOS Simulator(TOSSIM) have
shown the proposed scheme outcome the conventional Ad hoc On-Demand
Distance Vector(AODV) Routing in solar power plants.
Abstract: This paper presents an analysis result of relationship
between business and information technology (IT) in business process
reengineering (BPR). 258 Japanese firm-level data collected have been
analyzed using structural equation modeling. This analysis was aimed
to illuminating success factors of achieve effective BPR. Analysis was
focused on management factors (including organizational factors) and
implementing management method (e.g. balanced score card, internal
control, etc.).These results would contribute for achieving effective
BPR by showing effective tasks and environment to be focused.
Abstract: For a given specific problem an efficient algorithm has been the matter of study. However, an alternative approach orthogonal to this approach comes out, which is called a reduction. In general for a given specific problem this reduction approach studies how to convert an original problem into subproblems. This paper proposes a formal modeling language to support this reduction approach in order to make a solver quickly. We show three examples from the wide area of learning problems. The benefit is a fast prototyping of algorithms for a given new problem. It is noted that our formal modeling language is not intend for providing an efficient notation for data mining application, but for facilitating a designer who develops solvers in machine learning.
Abstract: This paper presents an on-going research work on the
implementation of feature-based machining via macro programming.
Repetitive machining features such as holes, slots, pockets etc can
readily be encapsulated in macros. Each macro consists of methods
on how to machine the shape as defined by the feature. The macro
programming technique comprises of a main program and
subprograms. The main program allows user to select several
subprograms that contain features and define their important
parameters. With macros, complex machining routines can be
implemented easily and no post processor is required. A case study
on machining of a part that comprised of planar face, hole and pocket
features using the macro programming technique was carried out. It
is envisaged that the macro programming technique can be extended
to other feature-based machining fields such as the newly developed
STEP-NC domain.
Abstract: Generalized Center String (GCS) problem are
generalized from Common Approximate Substring problem
and Common substring problems. GCS are known to be
NP-hard allowing the problems lies in the explosion of
potential candidates. Finding longest center string without
concerning the sequence that may not contain any motifs is
not known in advance in any particular biological gene
process. GCS solved by frequent pattern-mining techniques
and known to be fixed parameter tractable based on the
fixed input sequence length and symbol set size. Efficient
method known as Bpriori algorithms can solve GCS with
reasonable time/space complexities. Bpriori 2 and Bpriori
3-2 algorithm are been proposed of any length and any
positions of all their instances in input sequences. In this
paper, we reduced the time/space complexity of Bpriori
algorithm by Constrained Based Frequent Pattern mining
(CBFP) technique which integrates the idea of Constraint
Based Mining and FP-tree mining. CBFP mining technique
solves the GCS problem works for all center string of any
length, but also for the positions of all their mutated copies
of input sequence. CBFP mining technique construct TRIE
like with FP tree to represent the mutated copies of center
string of any length, along with constraints to restraint
growth of the consensus tree. The complexity analysis for
Constrained Based FP mining technique and Bpriori
algorithm is done based on the worst case and average case
approach. Algorithm's correctness compared with the
Bpriori algorithm using artificial data is shown.
Abstract: This research seeks to investigate the frequency and
profitability of index arbitrage opportunities involving the SET50
futures, SET50 component stocks, and the ThaiDEX SET50 ETF
(ticker symbol: TDEX). In particular, the frequency and profit of
arbitrage are measured in the following three arbitrage tests: (1)
SET50 futures vs. ThaiDEX SET50 ETF, (2) SET50 futures vs.
SET50 component stocks, and (3) ThaiDEX SET50 ETF vs. SET50
component stocks are investigated. For tests (2) and (3), the problems
involve conic optimization and quadratic programming as subproblems.
This research is first to apply conic optimization and
quadratic programming techniques in the context of index arbitrage
and is first to investigate such index arbitrage in the Thai equity and
derivatives markets. Thus, the contribution of this study is twofold.
First, its results would help understand the contribution of the
derivatives securities to the efficiency of the Thai markets. Second,
the methodology employed in this study can be applied to other
geographical markets, with minor adjustments.
Abstract: Web applications have become very complex and crucial, especially when combined with areas such as CRM (Customer Relationship Management) and BPR (Business Process Reengineering), the scientific community has focused attention to Web applications design, development, analysis, and testing, by studying and proposing methodologies and tools. This paper proposes an approach to automatic multi-dimensional concern mining for Web Applications, based on concepts analysis, impact analysis, and token-based concern identification. This approach lets the user to analyse and traverse Web software relevant to a particular concern (concept, goal, purpose, etc.) via multi-dimensional separation of concerns, to document, understand and test Web applications. This technique was developed in the context of WAAT (Web Applications Analysis and Testing) project. A semi-automatic tool to support this technique is currently under development.