Abstract: This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.
Abstract: To investigate some relations between higher mathe¬matics scores in Chinese graduate student entrance examination and calculus (resp. linear algebra, probability statistics) scores in subject's completion examination of Chinese university, we select 20 students as a sample, take higher mathematics score as a decision attribute and take calculus score, linear algebra score, probability statistics score as condition attributes. In this paper, we are based on rough-set theory (Rough-set theory is a logic-mathematical method proposed by Z. Pawlak. In recent years, this theory has been widely implemented in the many fields of natural science and societal science.) to investigate importance of condition attributes with respective to decision attribute and strength of condition attributes supporting decision attribute. Results of this investigation will be helpful for university students to raise higher mathematics scores in Chinese graduate student entrance examination.
Abstract: Taxation as a potent fiscal policy instrument through which infrastructures and social services that drive the development process of any society has been ineffective in Nigeria. The adoption of appropriate measures is, however, a requirement for the generation of adequate tax revenue. This study set out to investigates efficiency and effectiveness in the administration of tax in Nigeria, using Cross River State as a case-study. The methodology to achieve this objective is a qualitative technique using structured questionnaires to survey the three senatorial districts in the state; the central limit theory is adopted as our analytical technique. Result showed a significant degree of inefficiency in the administration of taxes. It is recommended that periodic review and update of tax policy will bring innovation and effectiveness in the administration of taxes. Also proper appropriation of tax revenue will drive development in needed infrastructural and social services.
Abstract: Entrepreneurship has become an important and
extensively researched concept in business studies. Research on
foreign direct investment (FDI) has become widespread due to the
growth of FDI and its importance in globalization. Most
entrepreneurship studies examined the importance and influence of
entrepreneurial orientation in a micro-level context. On the other
hand, studies and research concerning FDI used statistical techniques
to analyze the effect, determinants, and motives of FDI on a
macroeconomic level, ignoring empirical studies on other noneconomic
determinants. In order to bridge the gap between the theory
and empirical evidence on FDI and the theory and research on
entrepreneurship, this study examines the impact of entrepreneurship
on inward foreign direct investment. The relationship between
entrepreneurship and foreign direct investment is investigated
through regression analysis of pooled time-series and cross-sectional
data. The results suggest that entrepreneurship has a significant effect
on FDI.
Abstract: This paper presents an economic game for sybil
detection in a distributed computing environment. Cost parameters
reflecting impacts of different sybil attacks are introduced in the sybil
detection game. The optimal strategies for this game in which both
sybil and non-sybil identities are expected to participate are devised.
A cost sharing economic mechanism called Discriminatory
Rewarding Mechanism for Sybil Detection is proposed based on this
game. A detective accepts a security deposit from each active agent,
negotiates with the agents and offers rewards to the sybils if the latter
disclose their identity. The basic objective of the detective is to
determine the optimum reward amount for each sybil which will
encourage the maximum possible number of sybils to reveal
themselves. Maintaining privacy is an important issue for the
mechanism since the participants involved in the negotiation are
generally reluctant to share their private information. The mechanism
has been applied to Tor by introducing a reputation scoring function.
Abstract: As a vital activity for companies, new product
development (NPD) is also a very risky process due to the high
uncertainty degree encountered at every development stage and the
inevitable dependence on how previous steps are successfully
accomplished. Hence, there is an apparent need to evaluate new
product initiatives systematically and make accurate decisions under
uncertainty. Another major concern is the time pressure to launch a
significant number of new products to preserve and increase the
competitive power of the company. In this work, we propose an
integrated decision-making framework based on neural networks and
fuzzy logic to make appropriate decisions and accelerate the
evaluation process. We are especially interested in the two initial
stages where new product ideas are selected (go/no go decision) and
the implementation order of the corresponding projects are
determined. We show that this two-staged intelligent approach allows
practitioners to roughly and quickly separate good and bad product
ideas by making use of previous experiences, and then, analyze a
more shortened list rigorously.
Abstract: Nonlinear response behaviour of a cracked RC beam under harmonic excitation is analysed to investigate various instability phenomena like, bifurcation, jump phenomena etc. The nonlinearity of the system arises due to opening and closing of the cracks in the RC beam and is modelled as a cubic polynomial. In order to trace different branches at the bifurcation point on the response curve (amplitude versus frequency of excitation plot), an arc length continuation technique along with the incremental harmonic balance (IHBC) method is employed. The stability of the solution is investigated by the Floquet theory using Hsu-s scheme. The periodic solutions obtained by the IHBC method are compared with these obtained by the numerical integration of the equation of motion. Characteristics of solutions fold bifurcation, jump phenomena and from stable to unstable zones are identified.
Abstract: This paper investigates the problem of exponential stability for a class of uncertain discrete-time stochastic neural network with time-varying delays. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, combining the stochastic stability theory, the free-weighting matrix method, a delay-dependent exponential stability criteria is obtained in term of LMIs. Compared with some previous results, the new conditions obtain in this paper are less conservative. Finally, two numerical examples are exploited to show the usefulness of the results derived.
Abstract: Elementary particles are created in pairs of equal and opposite momentums at a reference frame at the speed of light. The speed of light reference frame is viewed as a point in space as observed by observer at rest. This point in space is the bang location of the big bang theory. The bang in the big bang theory is not more than sustained flow of pairs of positive and negative elementary particles. Electrons and negative charged elementary particles are ejected from this point in space at velocities faster than light, while protons and positively charged particles obtain velocities lower than light. Subsonic masses are found to have real and positive charge, while supersonic masses are found to be negative and imaginary indicating that the two masses are of different entities. The electron-s super-sonic speed, as viewed by rest observer was calculated and found to be less than the speed of light and is little higher than the electron speed in Bohr-s orbit. The newly formed hydrogen gas temperature was found to be in agreement with temperatures found on newly formed stars. Universe expansion was found to be in agreement. Partial mass and charge elementary particles and particles with momentum only were explained in the context of this theoretical approach.
Abstract: Classification is an interesting problem in functional
data analysis (FDA), because many science and application problems
end up with classification problems, such as recognition, prediction,
control, decision making, management, etc. As the high dimension
and high correlation in functional data (FD), it is a key problem to
extract features from FD whereas keeping its global characters, which
relates to the classification efficiency and precision to heavens. In this
paper, a novel automatic method which combined Genetic Algorithm
(GA) and classification algorithm to extract classification features is
proposed. In this method, the optimal features and classification model
are approached via evolutional study step by step. It is proved by
theory analysis and experiment test that this method has advantages in
improving classification efficiency, precision and robustness whereas
using less features and the dimension of extracted classification
features can be controlled.
Abstract: Scarcity of resources for biodiversity conservation gives rise to the need of strategic investment with priorities given to the cost of conservation. While the literature provides abundant methodological options for biodiversity conservation; estimating true cost of conservation remains abstract and simplistic, without recognising dynamic nature of the cost. Some recent works demonstrate the prominence of economic theory to inform biodiversity decisions, particularly on the costs and benefits of biodiversity however, the integration of the concept of true cost into biodiversity actions and planning are very slow to come by, and specially on a farm level. Conservation planning studies often use area as a proxy for costs neglecting different land values as well as protected areas. These literature consider only heterogeneous benefits while land costs are considered homogenous. Analysis with the assumption of cost homogeneity results in biased estimation; since not only it doesn’t address the true total cost of biodiversity actions and plans, but also it fails to screen out lands that are more (or less) expensive and/or difficult (or more suitable) for biodiversity conservation purposes, hindering validity and comparability of the results. Economies of scope” is one of the other most neglected aspects in conservation literature. The concept of economies of scope introduces the existence of cost complementarities within a multiple output production system and it suggests a lower cost during the concurrent production of multiple outputs by a given farm. If there are, indeed, economies of scope then simplistic representation of costs will tend to overestimate the true cost of conservation leading to suboptimal outcomes. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to provide first road review of the various theoretical ways in which economies of scope are likely to occur of how they might occur in conservation. Consequently, the paper addresses gaps that have to be filled in future analysis.
Abstract: The study attempted to identify the dominant
intelligences of athletes by comparing the developmental differences
of multiple intelligences between athletes and non-athletes. The
weekly specialized training hours and years of specialized training
was examined to see how it can predict the dominant intelligence with
the age factor controlled. There were 355 participants in the research
(202 athletes and 153 non-athletes). Collected data were analyzed with
one-way MANOVA and multiple hierarchical regression. The results
suggested the dominant intelligences of athletes were Interpersonal
Intelligence, Bodily-Kinesthetic Intelligence, and Intrapersonal
Intelligence. The weekly specialized training hours and years of
specialized training could effectively predict the Interpersonal
Intelligence, Bodily-Kinesthetic Intelligence, and Intrapersonal
Intelligence of athletes. The author suggested the future studies could
focus on the theory construction of weekly specialized training and
years of specialized training. Also, the studies on using “Bridge
strategy" by the athletes to guide disadvantage intelligences with
dominant intelligences are highly valued.
Abstract: Aim. We have introduced the notion of order to multinormed spaces and countable union spaces and their duals. The topology of bounded convergence is assigned to the dual spaces. The aim of this paper is to develop the theory of ordered topological linear
spaces La,b, L(w, z), the dual spaces of ordered multinormed spaces
La,b, ordered countable union spaces L(w, z), with the topology of bounded convergence assigned to the dual spaces. We apply Laplace transformation to the ordered linear space of Laplace transformable
generalized functions. We ultimately aim at finding solutions to nonhomogeneous
nth order linear differential equations with constant
coefficients in terms of generalized functions and comparing different
solutions evolved out of different initial conditions.
Method. The above aim is achieved by
• Defining the spaces La,b, L(w, z).
• Assigning an order relation on these spaces by identifying a
positive cone on them and studying the properties of the cone.
• Defining an order relation on the dual spaces La,b, L(w, z) of La,b, L(w, z) and assigning a topology to these dual spaces which makes the order dual and the topological dual the same. • Defining the adjoint of a continuous map on these spaces
and studying its behaviour when the topology of bounded
convergence is assigned to the dual spaces.
• Applying the two-sided Laplace Transformation on the ordered
linear space of generalized functions W and studying some
properties of the transformation which are used in solving
differential equations.
Result. The above techniques are applied to solve non-homogeneous
n-th order linear differential equations with constant coefficients in
terms of generalized functions and to compare different solutions of the differential equation.
Abstract: This paper is part of an ongoing research on the
development of systemic maintenance management model Malaysian
university buildings. In order to achieve this aim, there is a need to
develop a performance model against which services are measure.
Measuring performance is a significant part of maintenance
management service delivery. Maintenance organization needs to
know where they are in order to provide user-driven services and to
enhance productivity. The aim of this paper is to formulate a
template or model for university maintenance organization in
Malaysia. The model is based on literature review and survey
questionnaire and has been validated. Through grounded theory, this
paper developed a 8 points matrix for the university maintenance
organizations for measuring and improving their service delivery.
The potential of the model is guide and assists towards providing
value added service delivery through initiating maintenance
according to user value system rather than on the condition of the
building.
Abstract: The proliferation of user-generated content (UGC) results in huge opportunities to explore event patterns. However, existing event recommendation systems primarily focus on advanced information technology users. Little work has been done to address novice and low-literacy users. The next billion users providing and consuming UGC are likely to include communities from developing countries who are ready to use affordable technologies for subsistence goals. Therefore, we propose a design framework for providing event recommendations to address the needs of such users. Grounded in information integration theory (IIT), our framework advocates that effective event recommendation is supported by systems capable of (1) reliable information gathering through structured user input, (2) accurate sense making through spatial-temporal analytics, and (3) intuitive information dissemination through interactive visualization techniques. A mobile pest management application is developed as an instantiation of the design framework. Our preliminary study suggests a set of design principles for novice and low-literacy users.
Abstract: As there are also graph methods of circuit analysis in
addition to algebraic methods, it is, in theory, clearly possible to
carry out an analysis of a whole switched circuit in two-phase
switching exclusively by the graph method as well. This article deals
with two methods of full-graph solving of switched circuits: by
transformation graphs and by two-graphs. It deals with the circuit
switched capacitors and the switched current, too. All methods are
presented in an equally detailed steps to be able to compare.
Abstract: One of the main trouble in a steel strip manufacturing
line is the breakage of whatever weld carried out between steel coils,
that are used to produce the continuous strip to be processed. A weld
breakage results in a several hours stop of the manufacturing line. In
this process the damages caused by the breakage must be repaired.
After the reparation and in order to go on with the production it will
be necessary a restarting process of the line. For minimizing this
problem, a human operator must inspect visually and manually each
weld in order to avoid its breakage during the manufacturing process.
The work presented in this paper is based on the Bayesian decision
theory and it presents an approach to detect, on real-time, steel strip
defective welds. This approach is based on quantifying the tradeoffs
between various classification decisions using probability and the
costs that accompany such decisions.
Abstract: The influence of eccentric discharge of stored solids in
squat silos has been highly valued by many researchers. However,
calculation method of lateral pressure under eccentric flowing still
needs to be deeply studied. In particular, the lateral pressure
distribution on vertical wall could not be accurately recognized
mainly because of its asymmetry. In order to build mechanical model
of lateral pressure, flow channel and flow pattern of stored solids in
squat silo are studied. In this passage, based on Janssen-s theory, the
method for calculating lateral static pressure in squat silos after
eccentric discharge is proposed. Calculative formulae are deduced for
each of three possible cases. This method is also focusing on
unsymmetrical distribution characteristic of silo wall normal
pressure. Finite element model is used to analysis and compare the
results of lateral pressure and the numerical results illustrate the
practicability of the theoretical method.
Abstract: In this paper, a class of generalized bi-directional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with mixed delays is investigated. On the basis of Lyapunov stability theory and contraction mapping theorem, some new sufficient conditions are established for the existence and uniqueness and globally exponential stability of equilibrium, which generalize and improve the previously known results. One example is given to show the feasibility and effectiveness of our results.
Abstract: In the present article, nonlinear vibration analysis of
single layer graphene sheets is presented and the effect of small
length scale is investigated. Using the Hamilton's principle, the three
coupled nonlinear equations of motion are obtained based on the von
Karman geometrical model and Eringen theory of nonlocal
continuum. The solutions of Free nonlinear vibration, based on a one
term mode shape, are found for both simply supported and clamped
graphene sheets. A complete analysis of graphene sheets with
movable as well as immovable in-plane conditions is also carried out.
The results obtained herein are compared with those available in the
literature for classical isotropic rectangular plates and excellent
agreement is seen. Also, the nonlinear effects are presented as
functions of geometric properties and small scale parameter.