Abstract: Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.
Abstract: This study endeavors to evaluate the effects of farmers’ training program on the adoption of improved farming practices, the output of rice farming, and the income as well as the profit from rice farming by employing an ex-post non-experimental data in Sierra Leone. It was established that participating in farmers’ training program increased the possibility of adoption of the improved farming activities that were implemented in the study area. Through the training program also, the proceeds from rice production was also established to have increased considerably. These results were in line with the assumption that one of the main constraints on the growth in agricultural output particularly rice cultivation in most African states is the lack of efficient extension programs.
Abstract: Aldehydes as secondary lipid oxidation products are highly specific to the oxidative degradation of particular polyunsaturated fatty acids present in foods. Gas chromatographic analysis of those volatile compounds has been widely used for monitoring of the deterioration of food products. Developed static headspace gas chromatography method using flame ionization detector (SHS GC FID) was applied to monitor the aldehydes present in processed foods such as bakery, meat and confectionary products.
Five selected aldehydes were determined in samples without any sample preparation, except grinding for bakery and meat products. SHS–GC analysis allows the separation of propanal, pentanal, hexanal, heptanal and octanal, within 15min. Aldehydes were quantified in fresh and stored samples, and the obtained range of aldehydes in crackers was 1.62±0.05 – 9.95±0.05mg/kg, in sausages 6.62±0.46 – 39.16±0.39mg/kg; and in cocoa spread cream 0.48±0.01 – 1.13±0.02mg/kg. Referring to the obtained results, the following can be concluded, proposed method is suitable for different types of samples, content of aldehydes varies depending on the type of a sample, and differs in fresh and stored samples of the same type.
Abstract: In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded
to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a
competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic
decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a
satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation
model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price
evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering
software, considers two main factors affecting the
bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the
project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate
projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk
analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price
with associated certainty level in a scientific method.
Abstract: A clustering is process to identify a homogeneous
groups of object called as cluster. Clustering is one interesting topic
on data mining. A group or class behaves similarly characteristics.
This paper discusses a robust clustering process for data images with
two reduction dimension approaches; i.e. the two dimensional
principal component analysis (2DPCA) and principal component
analysis (PCA). A standard approach to overcome this problem is
dimension reduction, which transforms a high-dimensional data into
a lower-dimensional space with limited loss of information. One of
the most common forms of dimensionality reduction is the principal
components analysis (PCA). The 2DPCA is often called a variant of
principal component (PCA), the image matrices were directly treated
as 2D matrices; they do not need to be transformed into a vector so
that the covariance matrix of image can be constructed directly using
the original image matrices. The decomposed classical covariance
matrix is very sensitive to outlying observations. The objective of
paper is to compare the performance of robust minimizing vector
variance (MVV) in the two dimensional projection PCA (2DPCA)
and the PCA for clustering on an arbitrary data image when outliers
are hiden in the data set. The simulation aspects of robustness and
the illustration of clustering images are discussed in the end of
paper
Abstract: Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is a powerful
and efficient mathematical approach widely applied in the
optimization of cultivation process. Cellulase enzyme production by
Trichoderma reesei RutC30 using agricultural waste rice straw and
banana fiber as carbon source were investigated. In this work,
sequential optimization strategy based statistical design was
employed to enhance the production of cellulase enzyme through
submerged cultivation. A fractional factorial design (26-2) was applied
to elucidate the process parameters that significantly affect cellulase
production. Temperature, Substrate concentration, Inducer
concentration, pH, inoculum age and agitation speed were identified
as important process parameters effecting cellulase enzyme synthesis.
The concentration of lignocelluloses and lactose (inducer) in the
cultivation medium were found to be most significant factors. The
steepest ascent method was used to locate the optimal domain and a
Central Composite Design (CCD) was used to estimate the quadratic
response surface from which the factor levels for maximum
production of cellulase were determined.
Abstract: This paper was aimed to survey the level of awareness
of traditional grocery stores in Bangkok in these categories: location,
service quality, risk, shopping, worthwhile, shopping satisfaction, and
future shopping intention. The paper was also aimed to survey factors
influencing the decision to shop at traditional grocery stores in
Bangkok in the future. The findings revealed that consumers had a
high level of awareness of traditional grocery stores in Bangkok.
Consumers were aware that the price was higher and it was riskier to
buy goods and services at traditional grocery stores but they still had
a high level of preference to patronage traditional grocery stores. This
was due to the reasons that there was a high level of satisfaction from
the factors of the friendliness of the owner, the ability to negotiate the
price, the ability to buy on credit, free delivery, and the enjoyment to
meet with other customers in the same neighborhood.
Abstract: Carbon fibers have specific characteristics in
comparison with industrial and structural materials used in different
applications. Special properties of carbon fibers make them attractive
for reinforcing and fabrication of composites. These fibers have been
utilized for composites of metals, ceramics and plastics. However,
it-s mainly used in different forms to reinforce lightweight polymer
materials such as epoxy resin, polyesters or polyamides. The
composites of carbon fiber are stronger than steel, stiffer than
titanium, and lighter than aluminum and nowadays they are used in a
variety of applications. This study explains applications of carbon
fibers in different fields such as space, aviation, transportation,
medical, construction, energy, sporting goods, electronics, and the
other commercial/industrial applications. The last findings of
composites with polymer, metal and ceramic matrices containing
carbon fibers and their applications in the world investigated.
Researches show that carbon fibers-reinforced composites due to
unique properties (including high specific strength and specific
modulus, low thermal expansion coefficient, high fatigue strength,
and high thermal stability) can be replaced with common industrial
and structural materials.
Abstract: This paper deals with econometric analysis of real
retail trade turnover. It is a part of an extensive scientific research
about modern trends in Croatian national economy. At the end of the
period of transition economy, Croatia confronts with challenges and
problems of high consumption society. In such environment as
crucial economic variables: real retail trade turnover, average
monthly real wages and household loans are chosen for consequence
analysis. For the purpose of complete procedure of multiple
econometric analysis data base adjustment has been provided.
Namely, it has been necessary to deflate original national statistics
data of retail trade turnover using consumer price indices, as well as
provide process of seasonally adjustment of its contemporary
behavior. In model establishment it has been necessary to involve the
overcoming procedure for the autocorrelation and colinearity
problems. Moreover, for case of time-series shift a specific
appropriate econometric instrument has been applied. It would be
emphasize that the whole methodology procedure is based on the real
Croatian national economy time-series.
Abstract: Most parts of the world such as Iran are facing the excessive consumption of fertilizers, that are used to achieve high yield, but increase the cost of production of fertilizer and degradation of soil and water resources. This experiment was carried out to study the effect of PGPR and planting pattern on yield and yield components of rice (Oryza sativa L.) using split plot based on randomized complete block design with three replications in Ilam province, Iran. Bio-fertilizer including Azotobacter, Nitroxin and control treatment (without consumption) were designed as a main plot and planting pattern including 15 × 10, 15 × 15 and 15 × 20 and the number of plant in hill including 3, 4 and 5 plants in hill were considered as a sub-plots. The results showed that the effect of bio-fertilizers, planting pattern and the number of plants in hill were significant affect on yield and yield components. Interaction effect between bio-fertilizer and planting pattern had important difference on the number spikelet of panicle and harvest index. Interaction effect between bio-fertilizer and the number of plants in hill were significant affect on the number of spikelet per panicle. The maximum grain yield was obtained by inoculation with Nitroxin, planting pattern of 15 × 15 and 4 plants in hill with mean of 1110.6 g.m-2, 959.9 g.m-2 and 928.4 g.m-2, respectively.
Abstract: Photo-crosslinked rice starch-based biodegradable
films were prepared by casting film-solution on leveled trays and
ultra violet (UV) irradiation was applied for 10 minute. The effect of
the content (3%, 6% and 9 wt. %)of photosensitiser (sodium
benzoate) on mechanical properties, water vapor permeability (WVP)
and structural properties of rice starch films were investigated. The
tensile strength increased while elongation at break and water
resistance properties of rice starch films decreased with addition and
increasing content of photosensitiser. The % crystallinity of rice
starch films were decreased when the content of photosensitiser
increased and UV were applied. The results showed that the
carboxylate group band of sodium benzoate was found in the FTIR
spectrum of rice starch films and found that incorporation of 6% of
photosensitiser into the films showed a higher absorption band of
resulted films. This result pointed out the highest interaction between
starch molecules was occurred.
Abstract: Phytases are acid phosphatase enzymes, which
efficiently cleave phosphate moieties from phytic acid, thereby
generating myo-inositol and inorganic phosphate. Thirty four
isolates of endophytic fungi to produce of phytases were isolated
from leaf, stem and root fragments of soybean. Screening of 34
isolates of endophytic fungi identified the phytases produced by
Rhizoctonia sp. and Fusarium verticillioides . The phytase
production were the best induced by phytic acid and rice bran
compared the others inducer in submerged fermentation medium
used. The phytase produced by both Rhizoctonia sp. and F.
verticillioides have pH optimum at 4.0 and 5.0 respectively. The
characterization of phytase from Fusarium verticillioides showed that
temperature optimum was 500C and stability until 600C, the pH
optimum 5.0 and pH stability was 2.5 – 6.0, and substrate specificity
were rice bran>soybean meal>corn> coconut cake, respectively.
Abstract: The equilibrium chemical reactions taken place in a converter reactor of the Khorasan Petrochemical Ammonia plant was studied using the minimization of Gibbs free energy method. In the minimization of the Gibbs free energy function the Davidon– Fletcher–Powell (DFP) optimization procedure using the penalty terms in the well-defined objective function was used. It should be noted that in the DFP procedure along with the corresponding penalty terms the Hessian matrices for the composition of constituents in the Converter reactor can be excluded. This, in fact, can be considered as the main advantage of the DFP optimization procedure. Also the effect of temperature and pressure on the equilibrium composition of the constituents was investigated. The results obtained in this work were compared with the data collected from the converter reactor of the Khorasan Petrochemical Ammonia plant. It was concluded that the results obtained from the method used in this work are in good agreement with the industrial data. Notably, the algorithm developed in this work, in spite of its simplicity, takes the advantage of short computation and convergence time.
Abstract: Implementation of response surface methodology (RSM) was employed to study the effects of two factor (rubber clearance and round per minute) in brown rice peeling machine of The optimal BROKENS yield (19.02, average of three repeats),.The optimized composition derived from RSM regression was analyzed using Regression analysis and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). At a significant level α = 0.05, the values of Regression coefficient, R 2 (adj)were 97.35 % and standard deviation were 1.09513. The independent variables are initial rubber clearance, and round per minute parameters namely. The investigating responses are final rubber clearance, and round per minute (RPM). The restriction of the optimization is the designated.
Abstract: Application of Expert System in the area of agriculture would take the form of Integrated Crop Management decision aids and would encompass water management, fertilizer management, crop protection systems and identification of implements. In order to remain competitive, the modern farmer often relies on agricultural specialists and advisors to provide information for decision-making. An expert system normally composed of a knowledge base (information, heuristics, etc.), inference engine (analyzes knowledge base), and end user interface (accepting inputs, generating outputs). Software named 'CROP-9-DSS' incorporating all modern features like, graphics, photos, video clippings etc. has been developed. This package will aid as a decision support system for identification of pest and diseases with control measures, fertilizer recommendation system, water management system and identification of farm implements for leading crops of Kerala (India) namely Coconut, Rice, Cashew, Pepper, Banana, four vegetables like Amaranthus, Bhindi, Brinjal and Cucurbits. 'CROP-9-DSS' will act as an expert system to agricultural officers, scientists in the field of agriculture and extension workers for decision-making and help them in suggesting suitable recommendations.
Abstract: In this paper, the American exchange option (AEO) valuation problem is modelled as a free boundary problem. The critical stock price for an AEO is satisfied an integral equation implicitly. When the remaining time is large enough, an asymptotic formula is provided for pricing an AEO. The numerical results reveal that our asymptotic pricing formula is robust and accurate for the long-term AEO.
Abstract: There is strong evidence that water channel proteins
'aquaporins (AQPs)' are central components in plant-water relations
as well as a number of other physiological parameters. We had
previously reported the isolation of 24 plasma membrane intrinsic
protein (PIP) type AQPs. However, the gene numbers in rice and the
polyploid nature of bread wheat indicated a high probability of
further genes in the latter. The present work focused on identification
of further AQP isoforms in bread wheat. With the use of altered
primer design, we identified five genes homologous, designated
PIP1;5b, PIP2;9b, TaPIP2;2, TaPIP2;2a, TaPIP2;2b. Sequence
alignments indicate PIP1;5b, PIP2;9b are likely to be homeologues of
two previously reported genes while the other three are new genes
and could be homeologs of each other. The results indicate further
AQP diversity in wheat and the sequence data will enable physical
mapping of these genes to identify their genomes as well as genetic to
determine their association with any quantitative trait loci (QTLs)
associated with plant-water relation such as salinity or drought
tolerance.
Abstract: This study1 holds for the formation of international financial crisis and political factors for economic crisis in Turkey, are evaluated in chronological order. The international arena and relevant studies conducted in Turkey work in the literature are assessed. The main purpose of the study is to hold the linkage between the crises and political stability in Turkey in details, and to examine the position of Turkey in this regard. The introduction part follows the literature survey on the models explaining causes and results of the crises, the second part of the study. In the third part, the formations of the world financial crises are studied. The fourth part, financial crisis in Turkey in 1994, 2000, 2001 and 2008 are reviewed and their political reasons are analyzed. In the last part of the study the results and recommendations are held. Political administrations have laid the grounds for an economic crisis in Turkey. In this study, the emergence of an economic crisis in Turkey and the developments after the crisis are chronologically examined and an explanation is offered as to the cause and effect relationship between the political administration and economic equilibrium in the country. Economic crises can be characterized as follows: high prices of consumables, high interest rates, current account deficits, budget deficits, structural defects in government finance, rising inflation and fixed currency applications, rising government debt, declining savings rates and increased dependency on foreign capital stock. Entering into the conditions of crisis during a time when the exchange value of the country-s national currency was rising, speculative finance movements and shrinking of foreign currency reserves happened due to expectations for devaluation and because of foreign investors- resistance to financing national debt, and a financial risk occurs. During the February 2001 crisis and immediately following, devaluation and reduction of value occurred in Turkey-s stock market. While changing over to the system of floating exchange rates in the midst of this crisis, the effects of the crisis on the real economy are discussed in this study. Administered politics include financial reforms, such as the rearrangement of banking systems. These reforms followed with the provision of foreign financial support. There have been winners and losers in the imbalance of income distribution, which has recently become more evident in Turkey-s fragile economy.
Abstract: This paper presents the influence of distributed generation (DG) on congestion and locational marginal price (LMP) in an optimal power flow (OPF) based wholesale electricity market. The problem of optimal placement to manage congestion and reduce LMP is formulated for the objective of social welfare maximization. From competitive electricity market standpoint, DGs have great value when they reduce load in particular locations and at particular times when feeders are heavily loaded. The paper lies on the groundwork that solution to optimal mix of generation and transmission resources can be achieved by addressing congestion and corresponding LMP. Obtained as lagrangian multiplier associated with active power flow equation for each node, LMP gives the short run marginal cost (SRMC) of electricity. Specific grid locations are examined to study the influence of DG penetration on congestion and corresponding shadow prices. The influence of DG on congestion and locational marginal prices has been demonstrated in a modified IEEE 14 bus test system.
Abstract: Supply chain management has become more
challenging with the emerging trend of globalization and
sustainability. Lately, research related to perishable products supply
chains, in particular agricultural food products, has emerged. This is
attributed to the additional complexity of managing this type of
supply chains with the recently increased concern of public health,
food quality, food safety, demand and price variability, and the
limited lifetime of these products. Inventory management for agrifood
supply chains is of vital importance due to the product
perishability and customers- strive for quality. This paper
concentrates on developing a simulation model of a real life case
study of a two echelon production-distribution system for agri-food
products. The objective is to improve a set of performance measures
by developing a simulation model that helps in evaluating and
analysing the performance of these supply chains. Simulation results
showed that it can help in improving overall system performance.