Using Statistical Significance and Prediction to Test Long/Short Term Public Services and Patients Cohorts: A Case Study in Scotland

Health and Social care (HSc) services planning and scheduling are facing unprecedented challenges, due to the pandemic pressure and also suffer from unplanned spending that is negatively impacted by the global financial crisis. Data-driven approaches can help to improve policies, plan and design services provision schedules using algorithms that assist healthcare managers to face unexpected demands using fewer resources. The paper discusses services packing using statistical significance tests and machine learning (ML) to evaluate demands similarity and coupling. This is achieved by predicting the range of the demand (class) using ML methods such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forests (RF), and Logistic Regression (LGR). The significance tests Chi-Squared and Student’s test are used on data over a 39 years span for which data exist for services delivered in Scotland. The demands are associated using probabilities and are parts of statistical hypotheses. These hypotheses, as their NULL part, assume that the target demand is statistically dependent on other services’ demands. This linking is checked using the data. In addition, ML methods are used to linearly predict the above target demands from the statistically found associations and extend the linear dependence of the target’s demand to independent demands forming, thus, groups of services. Statistical tests confirmed ML coupling and made the prediction statistically meaningful and proved that a target service can be matched reliably to other services while ML showed that such marked relationships can also be linear ones. Zero padding was used for missing years records and illustrated better such relationships both for limited years and for the entire span offering long-term data visualizations while limited years periods explained how well patients numbers can be related in short periods of time or that they can change over time as opposed to behaviours across more years. The prediction performance of the associations were measured using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC) and Accuracy (ACC) as well as the statistical tests Chi-Squared and Student. Co-plots and comparison tables for the RF, CART, and LGR methods as well as the p-value from tests and Information Exchange (IE/MIE) measures are provided showing the relative performance of ML methods and of the statistical tests as well as the behaviour using different learning ratios. The impact of k-neighbours classification (k-NN), Cross-Correlation (CC) and C-Means (CM) first groupings was also studied over limited years and for the entire span. It was found that CART was generally behind RF and LGR but in some interesting cases, LGR reached an AUC = 0 falling below CART, while the ACC was as high as 0.912 showing that ML methods can be confused by zero-padding or by data’s irregularities or by the outliers. On average, 3 linear predictors were sufficient, LGR was found competing well RF and CART followed with the same performance at higher learning ratios. Services were packed only when a significance level (p-value) of their association coefficient was more than 0.05. Social factors relationships were observed between home care services and treatment of old people, low birth weights, alcoholism, drug abuse, and emergency admissions. The work found  that different HSc services can be well packed as plans of limited duration, across various services sectors, learning configurations, as confirmed by using statistical hypotheses.

Index t-SNE: Tracking Dynamics of High-Dimensional Datasets with Coherent Embeddings

t-SNE is an embedding method that the data science community has widely used. It helps two main tasks: to display results by coloring items according to the item class or feature value; and for forensic, giving a first overview of the dataset distribution. Two interesting characteristics of t-SNE are the structure preservation property and the answer to the crowding problem, where all neighbors in high dimensional space cannot be represented correctly in low dimensional space. t-SNE preserves the local neighborhood, and similar items are nicely spaced by adjusting to the local density. These two characteristics produce a meaningful representation, where the cluster area is proportional to its size in number, and relationships between clusters are materialized by closeness on the embedding. This algorithm is non-parametric. The transformation from a high to low dimensional space is described but not learned. Two initializations of the algorithm would lead to two different embedding. In a forensic approach, analysts would like to compare two or more datasets using their embedding. A naive approach would be to embed all datasets together. However, this process is costly as the complexity of t-SNE is quadratic, and would be infeasible for too many datasets. Another approach would be to learn a parametric model over an embedding built with a subset of data. While this approach is highly scalable, points could be mapped at the same exact position, making them indistinguishable. This type of model would be unable to adapt to new outliers nor concept drift. This paper presents a methodology to reuse an embedding to create a new one, where cluster positions are preserved. The optimization process minimizes two costs, one relative to the embedding shape and the second relative to the support embedding’ match. The embedding with the support process can be repeated more than once, with the newly obtained embedding. The successive embedding can be used to study the impact of one variable over the dataset distribution or monitor changes over time. This method has the same complexity as t-SNE per embedding, and memory requirements are only doubled. For a dataset of n elements sorted and split into k subsets, the total embedding complexity would be reduced from O(n2) to O(n2/k), and the memory requirement from n2 to 2(n/k)2 which enables computation on recent laptops. The method showed promising results on a real-world dataset, allowing to observe the birth, evolution and death of clusters. The proposed approach facilitates identifying significant trends and changes, which empowers the monitoring high dimensional datasets’ dynamics.

Battery Grading Algorithm in 2nd-Life Repurposing Li-ion Battery System

This article presents a methodology that improves reliability and cyclability of 2nd-life Li-ion battery system repurposed as energy storage system (ESS). Most of the 2nd-life retired battery systems in market have module/pack-level state of health (SOH) indicator, which is utilized for guiding appropriate depth of discharge (DOD) in the application of ESS. Due to the lack of cell-level SOH indication, the different degrading behaviors among various cells cannot be identified upon reaching retired status; in the end, considering end of life (EOL) loss and pack-level DOD, the repurposed ESS has to be oversized by > 1.5 times to complement the application requirement of reliability and cyclability. This proposed battery grading algorithm, using non-invasive methodology, is able to detect outlier cells based on historical voltage data and calculate cell-level historical maximum temperature data using semi-analytic methodology. In this way, the individual battery cell in the 2nd-life battery system can be graded in terms of SOH on basis of the historical voltage fluctuation and estimated historical maximum temperature variation. These grades will have corresponding DOD grades in the application of the repurposed ESS to enhance the system reliability and cyclability. In all, this introduced battery grading algorithm is non-invasive, compatible with all kinds of retired Li-ion battery systems which lack of cell-level SOH indication, as well as potentially being embedded into battery management software for preventive maintenance and real-time cyclability optimization.

Methodology for the Multi-Objective Analysis of Data Sets in Freight Delivery

Data flow and the purpose of reporting the data are different and dependent on business needs. Different parameters are reported and transferred regularly during freight delivery. This business practices form the dataset constructed for each time point and contain all required information for freight moving decisions. As a significant amount of these data is used for various purposes, an integrating methodological approach must be developed to respond to the indicated problem. The proposed methodology contains several steps: (1) collecting context data sets and data validation; (2) multi-objective analysis for optimizing freight transfer services. For data validation, the study involves Grubbs outliers analysis, particularly for data cleaning and the identification of statistical significance of data reporting event cases. The Grubbs test is often used as it measures one external value at a time exceeding the boundaries of standard normal distribution. In the study area, the test was not widely applied by authors, except when the Grubbs test for outlier detection was used to identify outsiders in fuel consumption data. In the study, the authors applied the method with a confidence level of 99%. For the multi-objective analysis, the authors would like to select the forms of construction of the genetic algorithms, which have more possibilities to extract the best solution. For freight delivery management, the schemas of genetic algorithms' structure are used as a more effective technique. Due to that, the adaptable genetic algorithm is applied for the description of choosing process of the effective transportation corridor. In this study, the multi-objective genetic algorithm methods are used to optimize the data evaluation and select the appropriate transport corridor. The authors suggest a methodology for the multi-objective analysis, which evaluates collected context data sets and uses this evaluation to determine a delivery corridor for freight transfer service in the multi-modal transportation network. In the multi-objective analysis, authors include safety components, the number of accidents a year, and freight delivery time in the multi-modal transportation network. The proposed methodology has practical value in the management of multi-modal transportation processes.

A Visual Analytics Tool for the Structural Health Monitoring of an Aircraft Panel

Aerospace, mechanical, and civil engineering infrastructures can take advantages from damage detection and identification strategies in terms of maintenance cost reduction and operational life improvements, as well for safety scopes. The challenge is to detect so called “barely visible impact damage” (BVID), due to low/medium energy impacts, that can progressively compromise the structure integrity. The occurrence of any local change in material properties, that can degrade the structure performance, is to be monitored using so called Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems, in charge of comparing the structure states before and after damage occurs. SHM seeks for any "anomalous" response collected by means of sensor networks and then analyzed using appropriate algorithms. Independently of the specific analysis approach adopted for structural damage detection and localization, textual reports, tables and graphs describing possible outlier coordinates and damage severity are usually provided as artifacts to be elaborated for information extraction about the current health conditions of the structure under investigation. Visual Analytics can support the processing of monitored measurements offering data navigation and exploration tools leveraging the native human capabilities of understanding images faster than texts and tables. Herein, a SHM system enrichment by integration of a Visual Analytics component is investigated. Analytical dashboards have been created by combining worksheets, so that a useful Visual Analytics tool is provided to structural analysts for exploring the structure health conditions examined by a Principal Component Analysis based algorithm.

Automatic Thresholding for Data Gap Detection for a Set of Sensors in Instrumented Buildings

Building systems are highly vulnerable to different kinds of faults and failures. In fact, various faults, failures and human behaviors could affect the building performance. This paper tackles the detection of unreliable sensors in buildings. Different literature surveys on diagnosis techniques for sensor grids in buildings have been published but all of them treat only bias and outliers. Occurences of data gaps have also not been given an adequate span of attention in the academia. The proposed methodology comprises the automatic thresholding for data gap detection for a set of heterogeneous sensors in instrumented buildings. Sensor measurements are considered to be regular time series. However, in reality, sensor values are not uniformly sampled. So, the issue to solve is from which delay each sensor become faulty? The use of time series is required for detection of abnormalities on the delays. The efficiency of the method is evaluated on measurements obtained from a real power plant: an office at Grenoble Institute of technology equipped by 30 sensors.

Semi-Supervised Outlier Detection Using a Generative and Adversary Framework

In many outlier detection tasks, only training data belonging to one class, i.e., the positive class, is available. The task is then to predict a new data point as belonging either to the positive class or to the negative class, in which case the data point is considered an outlier. For this task, we propose a novel corrupted Generative Adversarial Network (CorGAN). In the adversarial process of training CorGAN, the Generator generates outlier samples for the negative class, and the Discriminator is trained to distinguish the positive training data from the generated negative data. The proposed framework is evaluated using an image dataset and a real-world network intrusion dataset. Our outlier-detection method achieves state-of-the-art performance on both tasks.

An Efficient Fundamental Matrix Estimation for Moving Object Detection

In this paper, an improved method for estimating fundamental matrix is proposed. The method is applied effectively to monocular camera based moving object detection. The method consists of corner points detection, moving object’s motion estimation and fundamental matrix calculation. The corner points are obtained by using Harris corner detector, motions of moving objects is calculated from pyramidal Lucas-Kanade optical flow algorithm. Through epipolar geometry analysis using RANSAC, the fundamental matrix is calculated. In this method, we have improved the performances of moving object detection by using two threshold values that determine inlier or outlier. Through the simulations, we compare the performances with varying the two threshold values.

Moving Object Detection Using Histogram of Uniformly Oriented Gradient

Moving object detection (MOD) is an important issue in advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). There are two important moving objects, pedestrians and scooters in ADAS. In real-world systems, there exist two important challenges for MOD, including the computational complexity and the detection accuracy. The histogram of oriented gradient (HOG) features can easily detect the edge of object without invariance to changes in illumination and shadowing. However, to reduce the execution time for real-time systems, the image size should be down sampled which would lead the outlier influence to increase. For this reason, we propose the histogram of uniformly-oriented gradient (HUG) features to get better accurate description of the contour of human body. In the testing phase, the support vector machine (SVM) with linear kernel function is involved. Experimental results show the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method. With SVM classifiers, the real testing results show the proposed HUG features achieve better than classification performance than the HOG ones.

Impact of Coal Mining on River Sediment Quality in the Sydney Basin, Australia

The environmental impacts arising from mining activities affect the air, water, and soil quality. Impacts may result in unexpected and adverse environmental outcomes. This study reports on the impact of coal production on sediment in Sydney region of Australia. The sediment samples upstream and downstream from the discharge points from three mines were taken, and 80 parameters were tested. The results were assessed against sediment quality based on presence of metals. The study revealed the increment of metal content in the sediment downstream of the reference locations. In many cases, the sediment was above the Australia and New Zealand Environment Conservation Council and international sediment quality guidelines value (SQGV). The major outliers to the guidelines were nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn).

Development of Energy Benchmarks Using Mandatory Energy and Emissions Reporting Data: Ontario Post-Secondary Residences

Governments are playing an increasingly active role in reducing carbon emissions, and a key strategy has been the introduction of mandatory energy disclosure policies. These policies have resulted in a significant amount of publicly available data, providing researchers with a unique opportunity to develop location-specific energy and carbon emission benchmarks from this data set, which can then be used to develop building archetypes and used to inform urban energy models. This study presents the development of such a benchmark using the public reporting data. The data from Ontario’s Ministry of Energy for Post-Secondary Educational Institutions are being used to develop a series of building archetype dynamic building loads and energy benchmarks to fill a gap in the currently available building database. This paper presents the development of a benchmark for college and university residences within ASHRAE climate zone 6 areas in Ontario using the mandatory disclosure energy and greenhouse gas emissions data. The methodology presented includes data cleaning, statistical analysis, and benchmark development, and lessons learned from this investigation are presented and discussed to inform the development of future energy benchmarks from this larger data set. The key findings from this initial benchmarking study are: (1) the importance of careful data screening and outlier identification to develop a valid dataset; (2) the key features used to develop a model of the data are building age, size, and occupancy schedules and these can be used to estimate energy consumption; and (3) policy changes affecting the primary energy generation significantly affected greenhouse gas emissions, and consideration of these factors was critical to evaluate the validity of the reported data.

Empirical Study on Causes of Project Delays

Renowned offshore organizations are drifting towards collaborative exertion to win and implement international projects for business gains. However, devoid of financial constraints, with the availability of skilled professionals, and despite improved project management practices through state-of-the-art tools and techniques, project delays have become a norm these days. This situation calls for exploring the factor(s) affecting the bonding between project management performance and project success. In the context of the well-known 3M’s of project management (that is, manpower, machinery, and materials), machinery and materials are dependent upon manpower. Because the body of knowledge inveterate on the influence of national culture on men, hence, the realization of the impact on the link between project management performance and project success need to be investigated in detail to arrive at the possible cause(s) of project delays. This research initiative was, therefore, undertaken to fill the research gap. The unit of analysis for the proposed research excretion was the individuals who had worked on skyscraper construction projects. In reverent studies, project management is best described using construction examples. It is due to this reason that the project oriented city of Dubai was chosen to reconnoiter on causes of project delays. A structured questionnaire survey was disseminated online with the courtesy of the Project Management Institute local chapter to carry out the cross-sectional study. The Construction Industry Institute, Austin, of the United States of America along with 23 high-rise builders in Dubai were also contacted by email requesting for their contribution to the study and providing them with the online link to the survey questionnaire. The reliability of the instrument was warranted using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.70. The appropriateness of sampling adequacy and homogeneity in variance was ensured by keeping Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) and Bartlett’s test of sphericity in the range ≥ 0.60 and < 0.05, respectively. Factor analysis was used to verify construct validity. During exploratory factor analysis, all items were loaded using a threshold of 0.4. Four hundred and seventeen respondents, including members from top management, project managers, and project staff, contributed to the study. The link between project management performance and project success was significant at 0.01 level (2-tailed), and 0.05 level (2-tailed) for Pearson’s correlation. Before initiating the moderator analysis test for linearity, multicollinearity, outliers, leverage points and influential cases, test for homoscedasticity and normality were carried out which are prerequisites for conducting moderator review. The moderator analysis, using a macro named PROCESS, was performed to verify the hypothesis that national culture has an influence on the said link. The empirical findings, when compared with Hofstede's results, showed high power distance as the cause of construction project delays in Dubai. The research outcome calls for the project sponsors and top management to reshape their project management strategy and allow for low power distance between management and project personnel for timely completion of projects.

EEG Signal Processing Methods to Differentiate Mental States

EEG is a very complex signal with noises and other bio-potential interferences. EOG is the most distinct interfering signal when EEG signals are measured and analyzed. It is very important how to process raw EEG signals in order to obtain useful information. In this study, the EEG signal processing techniques such as EOG filtering and outlier removal were examined to minimize unwanted EOG signals and other noises. The two different mental states of resting and focusing were examined through EEG analysis. A focused state was induced by letting subjects to watch a red dot on the white screen. EEG data for 32 healthy subjects were measured. EEG data after 60-Hz notch filtering were processed by a commercially available EOG filtering and our presented algorithm based on the removal of outliers. The ratio of beta wave to theta wave was used as a parameter for determining the degree of focusing. The results show that our algorithm was more appropriate than the existing EOG filtering.

Robust Variogram Fitting Using Non-Linear Rank-Based Estimators

In this paper numerous robust fitting procedures are considered in estimating spatial variograms. In spatial statistics, the conventional variogram fitting procedure (non-linear weighted least squares) suffers from the same outlier problem that has plagued this method from its inception. Even a 3-parameter model, like the variogram, can be adversely affected by a single outlier. This paper uses the Hogg-Type adaptive procedures to select an optimal score function for a rank-based estimator for these non-linear models. Numeric examples and simulation studies will demonstrate the robustness, utility, efficiency, and validity of these estimates.

Upgraded Rough Clustering and Outlier Detection Method on Yeast Dataset by Entropy Rough K-Means Method

Rough set theory is used to handle uncertainty and incomplete information by applying two accurate sets, Lower approximation and Upper approximation. In this paper, the rough clustering algorithms are improved by adopting the Similarity, Dissimilarity–Similarity and Entropy based initial centroids selection method on three different clustering algorithms namely Entropy based Rough K-Means (ERKM), Similarity based Rough K-Means (SRKM) and Dissimilarity-Similarity based Rough K-Means (DSRKM) were developed and executed by yeast dataset. The rough clustering algorithms are validated by cluster validity indexes namely Rand and Adjusted Rand indexes. An experimental result shows that the ERKM clustering algorithm perform effectively and delivers better results than other clustering methods. Outlier detection is an important task in data mining and very much different from the rest of the objects in the clusters. Entropy based Rough Outlier Factor (EROF) method is seemly to detect outlier effectively for yeast dataset. In rough K-Means method, by tuning the epsilon (ᶓ) value from 0.8 to 1.08 can detect outliers on boundary region and the RKM algorithm delivers better results, when choosing the value of epsilon (ᶓ) in the specified range. An experimental result shows that the EROF method on clustering algorithm performed very well and suitable for detecting outlier effectively for all datasets. Further, experimental readings show that the ERKM clustering method outperformed the other methods.

One-Class Support Vector Machine for Sentiment Analysis of Movie Review Documents

Sentiment analysis means to classify a given review document into positive or negative polar document. Sentiment analysis research has been increased tremendously in recent times due to its large number of applications in the industry and academia. Sentiment analysis models can be used to determine the opinion of the user towards any entity or product. E-commerce companies can use sentiment analysis model to improve their products on the basis of users’ opinion. In this paper, we propose a new One-class Support Vector Machine (One-class SVM) based sentiment analysis model for movie review documents. In the proposed approach, we initially extract features from one class of documents, and further test the given documents with the one-class SVM model if a given new test document lies in the model or it is an outlier. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed sentiment analysis model.

Alternative Robust Estimators for the Shape Parameters of the Burr XII Distribution

In general, classical methods such as maximum likelihood (ML) and least squares (LS) estimation methods are used to estimate the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution. However, these estimators are very sensitive to the outliers. To overcome this problem we propose alternative robust estimators based on the M-estimation method for the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution. We provide a small simulation study and a real data example to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimators over the ML and the LS estimators. The simulation results show that the proposed robust estimators generally outperform the classical estimators in terms of bias and root mean square errors when there are outliers in data.

Robust ANOVA: An Illustrative Study in Horticultural Crop Research

An attempt has been made in the present communication to elucidate the efficacy of robust ANOVA methods to analyse horticultural field experimental data in the presence of outliers. Results obtained fortify the use of robust ANOVA methods as there was substantiate reduction in error mean square, and hence the probability of committing Type I error, as compared to the regular approach.

Identification of Outliers in Flood Frequency Analysis: Comparison of Original and Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test

At-site flood frequency analysis is used to estimate flood quantiles when at-site record length is reasonably long. In Australia, FLIKE software has been introduced for at-site flood frequency analysis. The advantage of FLIKE is that, for a given application, the user can compare a number of most commonly adopted probability distributions and parameter estimation methods relatively quickly using a windows interface. The new version of FLIKE has been incorporated with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test which can identify multiple numbers of potentially influential low flows. This paper presents a case study considering six catchments in eastern Australia which compares two outlier identification tests (original Grubbs and Beck test and multiple Grubbs and Beck test) and two commonly applied probability distributions (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson type 3 (LP3)) using FLIKE software. It has been found that the multiple Grubbs and Beck test when used with LP3 distribution provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than when LP3 distribution is used with the original Grubbs and Beck test. Between these two methods, the differences in flood quantile estimates have been found to be up to 61% for the six study catchments. It has also been found that GEV distribution (with L moments) and LP3 distribution with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test provide quite similar results in most of the cases; however, a difference up to 38% has been noted for flood quantiles for annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 1 in 100 for one catchment. This finding needs to be confirmed with a greater number of stations across other Australian states.

The Effect of Outliers on the Economic and Social Survey on Income and Living Conditions

The European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) is a popular survey which provides information on income, poverty, social exclusion and living conditions of households and individuals in the European Union. The EU-SILC contains variables which may contain outliers. The presence of outliers can have an impact on the measures and indicators used by the EU-SILC. In this paper, we used data sets from various countries to analyze the presence of outliers. In addition, we obtain some indicators after removing these outliers, and a comparison between both situations can be observed. Finally, some conclusions are obtained.