Abstract: A cyclostationary Gaussian linearization method is
formulated for investigating the time average response of nonlinear
system under sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation. The
quantitative measure of cyclostationary mean, variance, spectrum of
mean amplitude, and mean power spectral density of noise are
analyzed. The qualitative response behavior of stochastic jump and
bifurcation are investigated. The validity of the present approach in
predicting the quantitative and qualitative statistical responses is
supported by utilizing Monte Carlo simulations. The present analysis
without imposing restrictive analytical conditions can be directly
derived by solving non-linear algebraic equations. The analytical
solution gives reliable quantitative and qualitative prediction of mean
and noise response for the Duffing system subjected to both sinusoidal
signal and white noise excitation.
Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to provide a new
methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the
development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique
with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop
these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized
T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit
measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed
models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based
models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full
models containing both exposure functions and other significant
geometry and traffic variables.
The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much
better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables
were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed,
major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn
curb radius.
The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or
upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T-intersections.
Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection
conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in
several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.
Abstract: The paper deals with possibilities of interpretation of
iron ore reducibility tests. It presents a mathematical model
developed at Centre ENET, VŠB – Technical University of Ostrava,
Czech Republic for an evaluation of metallurgical material of blast
furnace feedstock such as iron ore, sinter or pellets. According to the
data from the test, the model predicts its usage in blast furnace
technology and its effects on production parameters of shaft
aggregate. At the beginning, the paper sums up the general concept
and experience in mathematical modelling of iron ore reduction. It
presents basic equation for the calculation and the main parts of the
developed model. In the experimental part, there is an example of
usage of the mathematical model. The paper describes the usage of
data for some predictive calculation. There are presented material,
method of carried test of iron ore reducibility. Then there are
graphically interpreted effects of used material on carbon
consumption, rate of direct reduction and the whole reduction
process.
Abstract: A model was constructed to predict the amount of
solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in
a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported
by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during
a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce
energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal
function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to
estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized
measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia
weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and
training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with
a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation
algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In
addition, a modeled direct normal irradiance field and adjacent
weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later
trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete
wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the
measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar
radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts
are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.
Abstract: Traditional document representation for classification
follows Bag of Words (BoW) approach to represent the term weights.
The conventional method uses the Vector Space Model (VSM) to
exploit the statistical information of terms in the documents and they
fail to address the semantic information as well as order of the terms
present in the documents. Although, the phrase based approach
follows the order of the terms present in the documents rather than
semantics behind the word. Therefore, a semantic concept based
approach is used in this paper for enhancing the semantics by
incorporating the ontology information. In this paper a novel method
is proposed to forecast the intraday stock market price directional
movement based on the sentiments from Twitter and money control
news articles. The stock market forecasting is a very difficult and
highly complicated task because it is affected by many factors such
as economic conditions, political events and investor’s sentiment etc.
The stock market series are generally dynamic, nonparametric, noisy
and chaotic by nature. The sentiment analysis along with wisdom of
crowds can automatically compute the collective intelligence of
future performance in many areas like stock market, box office sales
and election outcomes. The proposed method utilizes collective
sentiments for stock market to predict the stock price directional
movements. The collective sentiments in the above social media have
powerful prediction on the stock price directional movements as
up/down by using Granger Causality test.
Abstract: The arm length, hand length, hand breadth and middle
finger length of 1540 right-handed industrial workers of Haryana
state was used to assess the relationship between the upper limb
dimensions and stature. Initially, the data were analyzed using basic
univariate analysis and independent t-tests; then simple and multiple
linear regression models were used to estimate stature using SPSS
(version 17). There was a positive correlation between upper limb
measurements (hand length, hand breadth, arm length and middle
finger length) and stature (p < 0.01), which was highest for hand
length. The accuracy of stature prediction ranged from ± 54.897 mm
to ± 58.307 mm. The use of multiple regression equations gave better
results than simple regression equations. This study provides new
forensic standards for stature estimation from the upper limb
measurements of male industrial workers of Haryana (India). The
results of this research indicate that stature can be determined using
hand dimensions with accuracy, when only upper limb is available
due to any reasons likewise explosions, train/plane crashes, mutilated
bodies, etc. The regression formula derived in this study will be
useful for anatomists, archaeologists, anthropologists, design
engineers and forensic scientists for fairly prediction of stature using
regression equations.
Abstract: An artificial neural network is a mathematical model
inspired by biological neural networks. There are several kinds of
neural networks and they are widely used in many areas, such as:
prediction, detection, and classification. Meanwhile, in day to day life,
people always have to make many difficult decisions. For example,
the coach of a soccer club has to decide which offensive player
to be selected to play in a certain game. This work describes a
novel Neural Network using a combination of the General Regression
Neural Network and the Probabilistic Neural Networks to help a
soccer coach make an informed decision.
Abstract: Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most
important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this
study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow
assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling.
In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important
role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is
very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model
boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow
into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence,
in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code
(UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as
tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain
extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent
is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel
radius and joint spacing.
Abstract: The main goal of this article is to describe the online
flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed
for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic
process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and
hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and
uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process
sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use
of a high performance computing environment is proposed for all
parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on
the Ostravice River catchment is presented that shows actual
durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.
Abstract: Customer churn prediction is one of the most useful
areas of study in customer analytics. Due to the enormous amount
of data available for such predictions, machine learning and data
mining have been heavily used in this domain. There exist many
machine learning algorithms directly applicable for the problem of
customer churn prediction, and here, we attempt to experiment on
a novel approach by using a cognitive learning based technique in
an attempt to improve the results obtained by using a combination
of supervised learning methods, with cognitive unsupervised learning
methods.
Abstract: Pulmonary Function Tests are important non-invasive
diagnostic tests to assess respiratory impairments and provides
quantifiable measures of lung function. Spirometry is the most
frequently used measure of lung function and plays an essential role
in the diagnosis and management of pulmonary diseases. However,
the test requires considerable patient effort and cooperation,
markedly related to the age of patients resulting in incomplete data
sets. This paper presents, a nonlinear model built using Multivariate
adaptive regression splines and Random forest regression model to
predict the missing spirometric features. Random forest based feature
selection is used to enhance both the generalization capability and the
model interpretability. In the present study, flow-volume data are
recorded for N= 198 subjects. The ranked order of feature importance
index calculated by the random forests model shows that the
spirometric features FVC, FEF25, PEF, FEF25-75, FEF50 and the
demographic parameter height are the important descriptors. A
comparison of performance assessment of both models prove that, the
prediction ability of MARS with the `top two ranked features namely
the FVC and FEF25 is higher, yielding a model fit of R2= 0.96 and
R2= 0.99 for normal and abnormal subjects. The Root Mean Square
Error analysis of the RF model and the MARS model also shows that
the latter is capable of predicting the missing values of FEV1 with a
notably lower error value of 0.0191 (normal subjects) and 0.0106
(abnormal subjects) with the aforementioned input features. It is
concluded that combining feature selection with a prediction model
provides a minimum subset of predominant features to train the
model, as well as yielding better prediction performance. This
analysis can assist clinicians with a intelligence support system in the
medical diagnosis and improvement of clinical care.
Abstract: The development of allometric models is crucial to
accurate forest biomass/carbon stock assessment. The aim of this
study was to develop a set of biomass prediction models that will
enable the determination of total tree aboveground biomass for
savannah woodland area in Niger State, Nigeria. Based on the data
collected through biometric measurements of 1816 trees and
destructive sampling of 36 trees, five species specific and one site
specific models were developed. The sample size was distributed
equally between the five most dominant species in the study site
(Vitellaria paradoxa, Irvingia gabonensis, Parkia biglobosa,
Anogeissus leiocarpus, Pterocarpus erinaceous). Firstly, the
equations were developed for five individual species. Secondly these
five species were mixed and were used to develop an allometric
equation of mixed species. Overall, there was a strong positive
relationship between total tree biomass and the stem diameter. The
coefficient of determination (R2 values) ranging from 0.93 to 0.99 P
< 0.001 were realised for the models; with considerable low standard
error of the estimates (SEE) which confirms that the total tree above
ground biomass has a significant relationship with the dbh. F-test
values for the biomass prediction models were also significant at p
Abstract: Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose
the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the
distressed extent differs substantially among different financial
distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed”
and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article
to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper
explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method.
First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate
governance and market factors to measure the probability of various
financial distress events based on multinomial logit models.
Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the
difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work
further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle
index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage
models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and
two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial
distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared
with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the
one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the
two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the
two-stage model.
Abstract: The composite pavement system considered in this
paper is composed of a functional surface layer, a fiber reinforced
asphalt middle layer and a fiber reinforced lean concrete base layer.
The mix design of the fiber reinforced lean concrete corresponds to the
mix composition of conventional lean concrete but reinforced by
fibers. The quasi-absence of research on the durability or long-term
performances (fatigue, creep, etc.) of such mix design stresses the
necessity to evaluate experimentally the long-term characteristics of
this layer composition. This study tests the creep characteristics as one
of the long-term characteristics of the fiber reinforced lean concrete
layer for composite pavement using a new creep device. The test
results reveal that the lean concrete mixed with fiber reinforcement
and fly ash develops smaller creep than the conventional lean
concrete. The results of the application of the CEB-FIP prediction
equation indicate that a modified creep prediction equation should be
developed to fit with the new mix design of the layer.
Abstract: Due to the rapid increase of Internet, web opinion
sources dynamically emerge which is useful for both potential
customers and product manufacturers for prediction and decision
purposes. These are the user generated contents written in natural
languages and are unstructured-free-texts scheme. Therefore, opinion
mining techniques become popular to automatically process customer
reviews for extracting product features and user opinions expressed
over them. Since customer reviews may contain both opinionated and
factual sentences, a supervised machine learning technique applies
for subjectivity classification to improve the mining performance. In
this paper, we dedicate our work is the task of opinion
summarization. Therefore, product feature and opinion extraction is
critical to opinion summarization, because its effectiveness
significantly affects the identification of semantic relationships. The
polarity and numeric score of all the features are determined by
Senti-WordNet Lexicon. The problem of opinion summarization
refers how to relate the opinion words with respect to a certain
feature. Probabilistic based model of supervised learning will
improve the result that is more flexible and effective.
Abstract: Livestock is one of the fastest-growing sectors in
agriculture. If carefully managed, have potential opportunities for
economic growth, food sovereignty and food security. In this study
we mainly analyse and compare long-term i.e. for year 2030 climate
variability impact on predicted productivity of meat i.e. beef, mutton
and poultry for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia w.r.t three factors i.e. i)
climatic-change vulnerability ii) CO2 fertilization and iii) water
scarcity and compare the results with two countries of the region i.e.
Iraq and Yemen. We do the analysis using data from diverse sources,
which was extracted, transformed and integrated before usage. The
collective impact of the three factors had an overall negative effect on
the production of meat for all the three countries, with adverse impact
on Iraq. High similarity was found between CO2 fertilization
(effecting animal fodder) and water scarcity i.e. higher than that
between production of beef and mutton for the three countries
considered. Overall, the three factors do not seem to be favorable for
the three Middle-East countries considered. This points to possibility
of a vegetarian year 2030 based on dependency on indigenous livestock
population.
Abstract: The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ
test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more
quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore,
it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil
properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this
paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using
artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal
friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results
considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In
addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different
parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as
input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover
relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation
of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies.
General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful
neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large
amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate
load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data
of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the
United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the
validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between
the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common
traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with
respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show
that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was
obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured
results with comparison to other correlations available in the
literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters
that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to
improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction
ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the
estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.
Abstract: Experimental & numeral study of temperature
distribution during milling process, is important in milling quality
and tools life aspects. In the present study the milling cross-section
temperature is determined by using Artificial Neural Networks
(ANN) according to the temperature of certain points of the work
piece and the point specifications and the milling rotational speed of
the blade. In the present work, at first three-dimensional model of the
work piece is provided and then by using the Computational Heat
Transfer (CHT) simulations, temperature in different nods of the
work piece are specified in steady-state conditions. Results obtained
from CHT are used for training and testing the ANN approach. Using
reverse engineering and setting the desired x, y, z and the milling
rotational speed of the blade as input data to the network, the milling
surface temperature determined by neural network is presented as
output data. The desired points temperature for different milling
blade rotational speed are obtained experimentally and by
extrapolation method for the milling surface temperature is obtained
and a comparison is performed among the soft programming ANN,
CHT results and experimental data and it is observed that ANN soft
programming code can be used more efficiently to determine the
temperature in a milling process.
Abstract: This study presents the moisture variations of
unbound layers from April 2012 to January 2014 in the Interstate 40
(I-40) pavement section in New Mexico. Three moisture probes were
installed at different layers inside the pavement which measure the
continuous moisture variations of the unbound layers. Data show that
the moisture contents of unbound layers are typically constant
throughout the day and month unless there is rainfall. Moisture
contents of all unbound layers change with rainfall. Change in ground
water table may affect the moisture content of unbound layers which
has not been investigated in this study. In addition, the Level 3
predictions of moisture contents using the Pavement Mechanistic-
Empirical (ME) Design software were compared and found quite
reasonable. However, results presented in the current study may not
be applicable for pavement in other regions.
Abstract: Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of
predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index
(S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to
predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an
in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively
complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these
in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was
unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for
commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-ofsample
strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive
set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the
S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of
greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.