Abstract: The purpose of this study is providing an improved mode choice model considering parameters including age grouping of prime-aged and old age. In this study, 2010 Household Travel Survey data were used and improper samples were removed through the analysis. Chosen alternative, date of birth, mode, origin code, destination code, departure time, and arrival time are considered from Household Travel Survey. By preprocessing data, travel time, travel cost, mode, and ratio of people aged 45 to 55 years, 55 to 65 years and over 65 years were calculated. After the manipulation, the mode choice model was constructed using LIMDEP by maximum likelihood estimation. A significance test was conducted for nine parameters, three age groups for three modes. Then the test was conducted again for the mode choice model with significant parameters, travel cost variable and travel time variable. As a result of the model estimation, as the age increases, the preference for the car decreases and the preference for the bus increases. This study is meaningful in that the individual and households characteristics are applied to the aggregate model.
Abstract: Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose
the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the
distressed extent differs substantially among different financial
distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed”
and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article
to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper
explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method.
First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate
governance and market factors to measure the probability of various
financial distress events based on multinomial logit models.
Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the
difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work
further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle
index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage
models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and
two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial
distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared
with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the
one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the
two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the
two-stage model.
Abstract: In the planning point of view, it is essential to have
mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation
systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as
against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and
socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to
recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models,
for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya.
Multinomial Logit Model for all the intercity trips has been
formulated to examine the national-level intercity transportation in
Libya. The Multinomial logit model was calibrated using nationwide
revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) survey. The
model was developed for deference purpose of intercity trips (work,
social and recreational). The variables of the model have been
predicted based on maximum likelihood method. The data needed for
model development were obtained from all major intercity corridors
in Libya. The final sample size consisted of 1300 interviews. About
two-thirds of these data were used for model calibration, and the
remaining parts were used for model validation. This study, which is
the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s
mode-choice behavior. The intercity travel mode-choice model was
successfully calibrated and validated. The outcomes indicate that, the
overall model is effective and yields higher precision of estimation.
The proposed model is beneficial, due to the fact that, it is receptive
to a lot of variables, and can be employed to determine the impact of
modifications in the numerous characteristics on the need for various
travel modes. Estimations of the model might also be of valuable to
planners, who can estimate possibilities for various modes and
determine the impact of unique policy modifications on the need for
intercity travel.