Predicting Long-Term Meat Productivity for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Livestock is one of the fastest-growing sectors in
agriculture. If carefully managed, have potential opportunities for
economic growth, food sovereignty and food security. In this study
we mainly analyse and compare long-term i.e. for year 2030 climate
variability impact on predicted productivity of meat i.e. beef, mutton
and poultry for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia w.r.t three factors i.e. i)
climatic-change vulnerability ii) CO2 fertilization and iii) water
scarcity and compare the results with two countries of the region i.e.
Iraq and Yemen. We do the analysis using data from diverse sources,
which was extracted, transformed and integrated before usage. The
collective impact of the three factors had an overall negative effect on
the production of meat for all the three countries, with adverse impact
on Iraq. High similarity was found between CO2 fertilization
(effecting animal fodder) and water scarcity i.e. higher than that
between production of beef and mutton for the three countries
considered. Overall, the three factors do not seem to be favorable for
the three Middle-East countries considered. This points to possibility
of a vegetarian year 2030 based on dependency on indigenous livestock
population.
[1] Anonymous-a. 1996. USDA database http://www.ers.usda.gov/
data/InternationalFoodDemand/ {accessed Aug. 2013}.
[2] Trading Economics http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/
arable-land-percent-of-land-area-wb-data.html { accessed Dec 2013}.
[3] Anonymous-b "2030: The perfect storm Scenario”, 2010,
http://www.populationinstitute.org/external/files/reports/The_Perfect_St
orm_Scenario_for_2030.pdf {accessed Oct 2013}.
[4] Biodiversity International http://www.bioversityinternational.org/
fileadmin/bioversity/publications/Web_version/47/ch07.htm {accessed
June 2014}.
[5] van de Steeg, J., & Tibbo, M. Livestock and Climate Change in the Near
East Region, 2012.
[6] FAO http://faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/browse/area/249/E
{accessed June 2014}.
[7] E. Lamy et al., "Factors influencing livestock productivity". Springer-
Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, pp.19-30, 2012.
[8] W. Killmann, "Climate change and food security: a framework
document". FAO, pp.1-110, 2008.
[9] Thornton, P., Herrero, M., & Ericksen, P. Livestock and climate change.
ILRI (International Livestock Research Institute). Livestock exchange
Issue Brief, 3, 2011.
[10] C. Calvosa, D. Chuluunbaatar and K. Fara, "Livestock and climate
change". International Fund for Agricultural Development, pp.1-20,
2009.
[11] Alexandratos, N., & Bruinsma, J. (2012). World agriculture towards
2030/2050: the 2012 revision (No. 12-03). ESA Working paper.
[12] Bruinsma, J. (Ed.). (2003). World agriculture: towards 2015/2030: an
FAO perspective. Earthscan.
[13] Linehan, V., Thorpe, S., Gunning-Trant, C., Heyhoe, E., Harle, K.,
Hormis, M., & Harris-Adams, K. (2013, March). Global food production
and prices to 2050. In Paper presented at the 43rd ABARES Outlook
conference.
[14] Bazzaz, F. & Sombroek, W., eds. 1996. Global climate change and
agricultural production: direct and indirect effects of changing
hydrological, pedological and plant physiological processes. Rome,
FAO and Chichester, UK, John Wiley.
[15] Ben Larkin, "Red Meat Market Report", www.mla.com.au/files/
17d47c22.../RMMR_MENA_June_2013.pdf {accessed May 2014}
[16] Canary Wharf, "Five-year global supply and demand projections",
www.igc.int/en/downloads/grainsupdate/igc_5yrprojections.pdf
{accessed June 2014}.[17] T. P. Robinson and F. Pozzi, "Mapping supply and demand for animalsource
foods to 2030". FAO Animal Production and Health Working
Paper. No. 2. Rome, 2011.
[18] McKinnon et al, "Climate Vulnerability Monitor". Dara, pp.1-290, 2010.
[19] G. Fischer, "World food and agriculture to 2030/50". In Technical paper
from the Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in .Vol. 2050, 2009.
[20] Z. Mintz, "Deserts are ‘greening’ from carbon dioxide fertilization,
satellite imagery saw arid regions bloom", International Business Times,
2013, http://www.ibtimes.com/deserts-are-greening-carbon-dioxidefertilization-
satellite-imagery-saw-arid-regions-bloom-photo {accessed
June 2013}.
[21] Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends {accessed June 2013}.
[22] Image Color Summarizer http://mkweb.bcgsc.ca/color_summarizer/?
{accessed June 2013}.
[23] P. Steduto, "Coping with water scarcity an action framework for
agriculture and food security". Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations, pp.5-8, 2012.
[24] J. Doorenbos and A. H. Kasssam, "Yield response to water. FAO
Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 33. Rome". FAO, 1979.
[25] T. Gardner-Outlaw and R. Engelman, "Sustaining water, easing scarcity:
a second update". Population and environment program, pp. 1-20, 1999.
[26] Ianchovichina, E., Loening, J., & Wood, C. How vulnerable are Arab
countries to global food price shocks?. World Bank Policy Research
Working Paper, 2012
[1] Anonymous-a. 1996. USDA database http://www.ers.usda.gov/
data/InternationalFoodDemand/ {accessed Aug. 2013}.
[2] Trading Economics http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/
arable-land-percent-of-land-area-wb-data.html { accessed Dec 2013}.
[3] Anonymous-b "2030: The perfect storm Scenario”, 2010,
http://www.populationinstitute.org/external/files/reports/The_Perfect_St
orm_Scenario_for_2030.pdf {accessed Oct 2013}.
[4] Biodiversity International http://www.bioversityinternational.org/
fileadmin/bioversity/publications/Web_version/47/ch07.htm {accessed
June 2014}.
[5] van de Steeg, J., & Tibbo, M. Livestock and Climate Change in the Near
East Region, 2012.
[6] FAO http://faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/browse/area/249/E
{accessed June 2014}.
[7] E. Lamy et al., "Factors influencing livestock productivity". Springer-
Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, pp.19-30, 2012.
[8] W. Killmann, "Climate change and food security: a framework
document". FAO, pp.1-110, 2008.
[9] Thornton, P., Herrero, M., & Ericksen, P. Livestock and climate change.
ILRI (International Livestock Research Institute). Livestock exchange
Issue Brief, 3, 2011.
[10] C. Calvosa, D. Chuluunbaatar and K. Fara, "Livestock and climate
change". International Fund for Agricultural Development, pp.1-20,
2009.
[11] Alexandratos, N., & Bruinsma, J. (2012). World agriculture towards
2030/2050: the 2012 revision (No. 12-03). ESA Working paper.
[12] Bruinsma, J. (Ed.). (2003). World agriculture: towards 2015/2030: an
FAO perspective. Earthscan.
[13] Linehan, V., Thorpe, S., Gunning-Trant, C., Heyhoe, E., Harle, K.,
Hormis, M., & Harris-Adams, K. (2013, March). Global food production
and prices to 2050. In Paper presented at the 43rd ABARES Outlook
conference.
[14] Bazzaz, F. & Sombroek, W., eds. 1996. Global climate change and
agricultural production: direct and indirect effects of changing
hydrological, pedological and plant physiological processes. Rome,
FAO and Chichester, UK, John Wiley.
[15] Ben Larkin, "Red Meat Market Report", www.mla.com.au/files/
17d47c22.../RMMR_MENA_June_2013.pdf {accessed May 2014}
[16] Canary Wharf, "Five-year global supply and demand projections",
www.igc.int/en/downloads/grainsupdate/igc_5yrprojections.pdf
{accessed June 2014}.[17] T. P. Robinson and F. Pozzi, "Mapping supply and demand for animalsource
foods to 2030". FAO Animal Production and Health Working
Paper. No. 2. Rome, 2011.
[18] McKinnon et al, "Climate Vulnerability Monitor". Dara, pp.1-290, 2010.
[19] G. Fischer, "World food and agriculture to 2030/50". In Technical paper
from the Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in .Vol. 2050, 2009.
[20] Z. Mintz, "Deserts are ‘greening’ from carbon dioxide fertilization,
satellite imagery saw arid regions bloom", International Business Times,
2013, http://www.ibtimes.com/deserts-are-greening-carbon-dioxidefertilization-
satellite-imagery-saw-arid-regions-bloom-photo {accessed
June 2013}.
[21] Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends {accessed June 2013}.
[22] Image Color Summarizer http://mkweb.bcgsc.ca/color_summarizer/?
{accessed June 2013}.
[23] P. Steduto, "Coping with water scarcity an action framework for
agriculture and food security". Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations, pp.5-8, 2012.
[24] J. Doorenbos and A. H. Kasssam, "Yield response to water. FAO
Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 33. Rome". FAO, 1979.
[25] T. Gardner-Outlaw and R. Engelman, "Sustaining water, easing scarcity:
a second update". Population and environment program, pp. 1-20, 1999.
[26] Ianchovichina, E., Loening, J., & Wood, C. How vulnerable are Arab
countries to global food price shocks?. World Bank Policy Research
Working Paper, 2012
@article{"International Journal of Biological, Life and Agricultural Sciences:69377", author = "A. Abdullah and A. Bakshwain and A. Aslam", title = "Predicting Long-Term Meat Productivity for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia", abstract = "Livestock is one of the fastest-growing sectors in
agriculture. If carefully managed, have potential opportunities for
economic growth, food sovereignty and food security. In this study
we mainly analyse and compare long-term i.e. for year 2030 climate
variability impact on predicted productivity of meat i.e. beef, mutton
and poultry for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia w.r.t three factors i.e. i)
climatic-change vulnerability ii) CO2 fertilization and iii) water
scarcity and compare the results with two countries of the region i.e.
Iraq and Yemen. We do the analysis using data from diverse sources,
which was extracted, transformed and integrated before usage. The
collective impact of the three factors had an overall negative effect on
the production of meat for all the three countries, with adverse impact
on Iraq. High similarity was found between CO2 fertilization
(effecting animal fodder) and water scarcity i.e. higher than that
between production of beef and mutton for the three countries
considered. Overall, the three factors do not seem to be favorable for
the three Middle-East countries considered. This points to possibility
of a vegetarian year 2030 based on dependency on indigenous livestock
population.
", keywords = "Prediction, animal-source foods, pastures, CO2
fertilization, climatic-change vulnerability, water scarcity.", volume = "9", number = "3", pages = "304-5", }
