Abstract: This paper presents a regression model with
autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by
analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic
model, where document topics are extracted using LDA. The
regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more
precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.
Abstract: The study investigated the implementation of the
Neural Network (NN) techniques for prediction of the loading of Cu
ions onto clinoptilolite. The experimental design using analysis of
variance (ANOVA) was chosen for testing the adequacy of the
Neural Network and for optimizing of the effective input parameters
(pH, temperature and initial concentration). Feed forward, multi-layer
perceptron (MLP) NN successfully tracked the non-linear behavior of
the adsorption process versus the input parameters with mean squared
error (MSE), correlation coefficient (R) and minimum squared error
(MSRE) of 0.102, 0.998 and 0.004 respectively. The results showed
that NN modeling techniques could effectively predict and simulate
the highly complex system and non-linear process such as ionexchange.
Abstract: Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.
Abstract: The acidity (citric acid) is the one of chemical content that can be refer to the internal quality and it’s a maturity index of tomato, The titratable acidity (%TA) can be predicted by a non-destructive method prediction by using the transmittance short wavelength (SW-NIR) spectroscopy in the wavelength range between 665-955 nm. The set of 167 tomato samples divided into groups of 117 tomatoes sample for training set and 50 tomatoes sample for test set were used to establish the calibration model to predict and measure %TA by partial least squares regression (PLSR) technique. The spectra were pretreated with MSC pretreatment and it gave the optimal result for calibration model as (R = 0.92, RMSEC = 0.03%) and this model obtained high accuracy result to use for %TA prediction in test set as (R = 0.81, RMSEP = 0.05%). From the result of prediction in test set shown that the transmittance SW-NIR spectroscopy technique can be used for a non-destructive method for %TA prediction of tomato.
Abstract: In recent years, many researchers are involved in the
field of fuzzy theory. However, there are still a lot of issues to be
resolved. Especially on topics related to controller design such as the
field of robot, artificial intelligence, and nonlinear systems etc.
Besides fuzzy theory, algorithms in swarm intelligence are also a
popular field for the researchers. In this paper, a concept of utilizing
one of the swarm intelligence method, which is called Bacterial-GA
Foraging, to find the stabilized common P matrix for the fuzzy
controller system is proposed. An example is given in in the paper, as
well.
Abstract: This paper presents a comparative study between two
neural network models namely General Regression Neural Network
(GRNN) and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) are used
to estimate radial overcut produced during Electrical Discharge
Machining (EDM). Four input parameters have been employed:
discharge current (Ip), pulse on time (Ton), Duty fraction (Tau) and
discharge voltage (V). Recently, artificial intelligence techniques, as
it is emerged as an effective tool that could be used to replace
time consuming procedures in various scientific or engineering
applications, explicitly in prediction and estimation of the complex
and nonlinear process. The both networks are trained, and the
prediction results are tested with the unseen validation set of the
experiment and analysed. It is found that the performance of both the
networks are found to be in good agreement with average percentage
error less than 11% and the correlation coefficient obtained for the
validation data set for GRNN and BPNN is more than 91%. However,
it is much faster to train GRNN network than a BPNN and GRNN is
often more accurate than BPNN. GRNN requires more memory space
to store the model, GRNN features fast learning that does not require
an iterative procedure, and highly parallel structure. GRNN networks
are slower than multilayer perceptron networks at classifying new
cases.
Abstract: The rapid expansion of deserts in recent decades as a result of human actions combined with climatic changes has highlighted the necessity to understand biological processes in arid environments. Whereas physical processes and the biology of flora and fauna have been relatively well studied in marginally used arid areas, knowledge of desert soil micro-organisms remains fragmentary. The objective of this study is to conduct a diversity analysis of bacterial communities in unvegetated arid soils. Several biological phenomena in hot deserts related to microbial populations and the potential use of micro-organisms for restoring hot desert environments. Dry land ecosystems have a highly heterogeneous distribution of resources, with greater nutrient concentrations and microbial densities occurring in vegetated than in bare soils. In this work, we found it useful to use techniques of artificial intelligence in their treatment especially artificial neural networks (ANN). The use of the ANN model, demonstrate his capability for addressing the complex problems of uncertainty data.
Abstract: In terms of ecology forecast effects of desertification, the purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model of growth and adaptation of species in arid environment and bioclimatic conditions. The impact of climate change and the desertification phenomena is the result of combined effects in magnitude and frequency of these phenomena. Like the data involved in the phytopathogenic process and bacteria growth in arid soil occur in an uncertain environment because of their complexity, it becomes necessary to have a suitable methodology for the analysis of these variables. The basic principles of fuzzy logic those are perfectly suited to this process. As input variables, we consider the physical parameters, soil type, bacteria nature, and plant species concerned. The result output variable is the adaptability of the species expressed by the growth rate or extinction. As a conclusion, we prevent the possible strategies for adaptation, with or without shifting areas of plantation and nature adequate vegetation.
Abstract: This paper presents an Artificial Neural Network based approach for short-term load forecasting and exactly for two days ahead. Two seasons have been discussed for Iraqi power system, namely summer and winter; the hourly load demand is the most important input variables for ANN based load forecasting. The recorded daily load profile with a lead time of 1-48 hours for July and December of the year 2012 was obtained from the operation and control center that belongs to the Ministry of Iraqi electricity.
The results of the comparison show that the neural network gives a good prediction for the load forecasting and for two days ahead.
Abstract: This work investigates the wear of a steam turbine blade coated with titanium nitride (TiN), and compares to the wear of uncoated blades. The coating is deposited on by physical vapor deposition (PVD) method. The working conditions of the blade were simulated and surface temperature and pressure values as well as flow velocity and flow direction were obtained. This data was used in the finite element wear model developed here in order to predict the wear of the blade. The wear mechanisms considered are erosive wear due to particle impingement and fluid jet, and fatigue wear due to repeated impingement of particles and fluid jet. Results show that the life of the TiN-coated blade is approximately 1.76 times longer than the life of the uncoated one.
Abstract: The optimization of biological systems, which is a branch of metabolic engineering, has generated a lot of industrial and academic interest for a long time. In the last decade, metabolic engineering approaches based on mathematical optimizations have been used extensively for the analysis and manipulation of metabolic networks. In practical optimization of metabolic reaction networks, designers have to manage the nature of uncertainty resulting from qualitative characters of metabolic reactions, e.g., the possibility of enzyme effects. A deterministic approach does not give an adequate representation for metabolic reaction networks with uncertain characters. Fuzzy optimization formulations can be applied to cope with this problem. A fuzzy multi-objective optimization problem can be introduced for finding the optimal engineering interventions on metabolic network systems considering the resilience phenomenon and cell viability constraints. The accuracy of optimization results depends heavily on the development of essential kinetic models of metabolic networks. Kinetic models can quantitatively capture the experimentally observed regulation data of metabolic systems and are often used to find the optimal manipulation of external inputs. To address the issues of optimizing the regulatory structure of metabolic networks, it is necessary to consider qualitative effects, e.g., the resilience phenomena and cell viability constraints. Combining the qualitative and quantitative descriptions for metabolic networks makes it possible to design a viable strain and accurately predict the maximum possible flux rates of desired products. Considering the resilience phenomena in metabolic networks can improve the predictions of gene intervention and maximum synthesis rates in metabolic engineering. Two case studies will present in the conference to illustrate the phenomena.
Abstract: Using the technology acceptance model (TAM), this
study examined the external variables of technological complexity
(TC) to acquire a better understanding of the factors that influence the
acceptance of computer application courses by learners at Active
Aging Universities. After the learners in this study had completed a
27-hour Facebook course, 44 learners responded to a modified TAM
survey. Data were collected to examine the path relationships among
the variables that influence the acceptance of Facebook-mediated
community learning. The partial least squares (PLS) method was used
to test the measurement and the structural model. The study results
demonstrated that attitudes toward Facebook use directly influence
behavioral intentions (BI) with respect to Facebook use, evincing a
high prediction rate of 58.3%. In addition to the perceived usefulness
(PU) and perceived ease of use (PEOU) measures that are proposed in
the TAM, other external variables, such as TC, also indirectly
influence BI. These four variables can explain 88% of the variance in
BI and demonstrate a high level of predictive ability. Finally,
limitations of this investigation and implications for further research
are discussed.
Abstract: Seismic design criteria based on performance of
structures have recently been adopted by practicing engineers in
response to destructive earthquakes. A simple but efficient
structural-analysis tool capable of predicting both the strength and
ductility is needed to analyze reinforced concrete (RC) structures
under such event. A three-dimensional lattice model is developed in
this study to analyze torsions in high-strength RC members.
Optimization techniques for determining optimal variables in each
lattice model are introduced. Pure torsion tests of RC members are
performed to validate the proposed model. Correlation studies
between the numerical and experimental results confirm that the
proposed model is well capable of representing salient features of the
experimental results.
Abstract: This paper aims at experimental and numerical investigation of springback behavior of sheet metals during L-bending process with emphasis on Stribeck-type friction modeling. The coefficient of friction in Stribeck curve depends on sliding velocity and contact pressure. The springback behavior of mild steel and aluminum alloy 6022-T4 sheets was studied experimentally and using numerical simulations with ABAQUS software with two types of friction model: Coulomb friction and Stribeck friction. The influence of forming speed on springback behavior was studied experimentally and numerically. The results showed that Stribeck-type friction model has better results in predicting springback in sheet metal forming. The FE prediction error for mild steel and 6022-T4 AA is 23.8%, 25.5% respectively, using Coulomb friction model and 11%, 13% respectively, using Stribeck friction model. These results show that Stribeck model is suitable for simulation of sheet metal forming especially at higher forming speed.
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the residual life prediction
problem for a partially observable system subject to two failure
modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system
degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the
degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model with
unknown parameters. The parameter estimation procedure based on
an EM algorithm is developed and the formulas for the conditional
reliability function and the mean residual life are derived, illustrated
by a numerical example.
Abstract: Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.
Abstract: The design of multi stage deep drawing processes requires the evaluation of many process parameters such as the intermediate die geometry, the blank shape, the sheet thickness, the blank holder force, friction, lubrication etc..These process parameters have to be determined for the optimum forming conditions before the process design. In general sheet metal forming may involve stretching drawing or various combinations of these basic modes of deformation. It is important to determine the influence of the process variables in the design of sheet metal working process. Especially, the punch and die corner for deep drawing will affect the formability. At the same time the prediction of sheet metals springback after deep drawing is an important issue to solve for the control of manufacturing processes. Nowadays, the importance of this problem increases because of the use of steel sheeting with high stress and also aluminum alloys.
The aim of this paper is to give a better understanding of the springback and its effect in various sheet metals forming process such as expansion and restreint deep drawing in the cup drawing process, by varying radius die, lubricant for two commercially available materials e.g. galvanized steel and Aluminum sheet. To achieve these goals experiments were carried out and compared with other results. The original of our purpose consist on tests which are ensured by adapting a U-type stretching-bending device on a tensile testing machine, where we studied and quantified the variation of the springback.
Abstract: Machine learning represents a set of topics dealing with the creation and evaluation of algorithms that facilitate pattern recognition, classification, and prediction, based on models derived from existing data. The data can present identification patterns which are used to classify into groups. The result of the analysis is the pattern which can be used for identification of data set without the need to obtain input data used for creation of this pattern. An important requirement in this process is careful data preparation validation of model used and its suitable interpretation. For breeders, it is important to know the origin of animals from the point of the genetic diversity. In case of missing pedigree information, other methods can be used for traceability of animal´s origin. Genetic diversity written in genetic data is holding relatively useful information to identify animals originated from individual countries. We can conclude that the application of data mining for molecular genetic data using supervised learning is an appropriate tool for hypothesis testing and identifying an individual.
Abstract: This paper presents a study on the effect of
second-order slip on forced convection through a long isoflux heated
or cooled planar microchannel. The fully developed solutions of flow
and thermal fields are analytically obtained on the basis of the
second-order Maxwell-Burnett slip and local heat flux boundary
conditions. Results reveal that when the average flow velocity
increases or the wall heat flux amount decreases, the role of thermal
creep becomes more insignificant, while the effect of second-order slip
becomes larger. The second-order term in the Deissler slip boundary
condition is found to contribute a positive velocity slip and then to lead
to a lower pressure drop as well as a lower temperature rise for the
heated-wall case or to a higher temperature rise for the cooled-wall
case. These findings are contrary to predictions made by the
Karniadakis slip model.
Abstract: Diesel vehicle should be equipped with emission after-treatment devices as NOx reduction catalyst and particulate filtersin order to meet more stringer diesel emission standard. Urea-SCR is being developed as the most efficient method of reducing NOx emissions in the after-treatment devices of diesel engines, and recent studies have begun to mount the Urea-SCR device for diesel passenger cars and light duty vehicles. In the present study, the effects of the mixer on the efficiency of urea-SCR System (i.e., NH3uni- formityindex (NH3 UI) is investigated by predicting the transport phenomena in the urea-SCR system. The three dimensional Eulerian-Lagrangian CFD simulationfor internal flow and spray characteristics in front of SCR is carried out by using STAR-CCM+ 7.06 code. In addition, the paper proposes a method to minimize the wall-wetting around the urea injector in order to prevent injector blocks caused by solid urea loading.