Abstract: Future flood can be predicted using the probable
maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical
discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters
remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the
key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea
level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or
catchment scale these important climatic variables should be
considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more
suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy
basin and presented in this paper.
Abstract: Wet scrubbers have found widespread use in cleaning
contaminated gas streams because of their ability to remove
particulates and based on the applications of scrubbing of marine
engine exhaust gases by spraying sea-water. In order to examine the
flow characteristics inside the scrubber, the model is designated with
flow properties of hot air and water sprayer. The flow dynamics of
evaporation of hot air by the injection of water droplets is the key
factor considered in this paper. The flow behavior inside the scrubber
was investigated from the previous works and to sum up the
evaporation rate with respect to the concentration of water droplets are
predicted to bring out the competent modelling. The numerical
analysis using CFD facilitates in understanding the problem better and
empathies the behavior of the model over its entire operating envelope.
Abstract: Factors affecting construction unit cost vary
depending on a country’s political, economic, social and
technological inclinations. Factors affecting construction costs have
been studied from various perspectives. Analysis of cost factors
requires an appreciation of a country’s practices. Identified cost
factors provide an indication of a country’s construction economic
strata. The purpose of this paper is to identify the essential factors
that affect unit cost estimation and their breakdown using artificial
neural networks. Twenty five (25) identified cost factors in road
construction were subjected to a questionnaire survey and employing
SPSS factor analysis the factors were reduced to eight. The 8 factors
were analysed using neural network (NN) to determine the
proportionate breakdown of the cost factors in a given construction
unit rate. NN predicted that political environment accounted 44% of
the unit rate followed by contractor capacity at 22% and financial
delays, project feasibility and overhead & profit each at 11%. Project
location, material availability and corruption perception index had
minimal impact on the unit cost from the training data provided.
Quantified cost factors can be incorporated in unit cost estimation
models (UCEM) to produce more accurate estimates. This can create
improvements in the cost estimation of infrastructure projects and
establish a benchmark standard to assist the process of alignment of
work practises and training of new staff, permitting the on-going
development of best practises in cost estimation to become more
effective.
Abstract: Systems Engineering plays a key role during industrial
product development of complex technical systems. The need for
systems engineers in industry is growing. But there is a gap between
the industrial need and the academic education. Normally the
academic education is focused on the domain specific design,
implementation and testing of technical systems. Necessary systems
engineering expertise like knowledge about requirements analysis,
product cost estimation, management or social skills are poorly
taught. Thus there is the need of new academic concepts for teaching
systems engineering skills. This paper presents a project-orientated
training concept to prepare students from different technical degree
programs for systems engineering activities. The training concept has
been initially implemented and applied in the industrial engineering
master program of the University of Applied Sciences Offenburg.
Abstract: This paper presents the application of the Discrete
Component Model for heating and evaporation to multi-component
biodiesel fuel droplets in direct injection internal combustion engines.
This model takes into account the effects of temperature gradient,
recirculation and species diffusion inside droplets. A distinctive
feature of the model used in the analysis is that it is based on the
analytical solutions to the temperature and species diffusion
equations inside the droplets. Nineteen types of biodiesel fuels are
considered. It is shown that a simplistic model, based on the
approximation of biodiesel fuel by a single component or ignoring
the diffusion of components of biodiesel fuel, leads to noticeable
errors in predicted droplet evaporation time and time evolution of
droplet surface temperature and radius.
Abstract: In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series
for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by
various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of
rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in
modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter
models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the
models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give
information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the
proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water
resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained
the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA
Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.
Abstract: Heightened concerns over the amount of carbon
emitted from coal-related processes are generating shifts to the
application of biomass. In co-gasification, where coal is gasified
along with biomass, the biomass may be fed together with coal (cofeeding)
or an independent biomass gasifier needs to be integrated
with the coal gasifier. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the
biomass introduction methods in coal co-gasification. This includes
the evaluation of biomass concentration input (B0 to B100) and its
gasification performance. A process model is developed and
simulated in Aspen HYSYS, where both coal and biomass are
modelled according to its ultimate analysis. It was found that the
syngas produced increased with increasing biomass content for both
co-feeding and independent schemes. However, the heating values
and heat duties decreases with biomass concentration as more CO2
are produced from complete combustion.
Abstract: Using ETABS software, this study analyzed 23
buildings to evaluate effects of mistakes during construction phase on
buildings structural behavior. For modelling, two different loadings
were assumed: 1) design loading and 2) loading due to the effects of
mistakes in construction phase. Research results determined that
considering traditional construction methods for buildings resulted in
a significant increase in dead loads and consequently intensified the
displacements and base-shears of buildings under seismic loads.
Abstract: A new small–scale test rig developed for rolling
contact fatigue (RCF) investigations in wheel–rail material. This
paper presents the scaling strategy of the rig based on dimensional
analysis and mechanical modelling. The new experimental rig is
indeed a spinning frame structure with multiple wheel components
over a fixed rail-track ring, capable of simulating continuous wheelrail
contact in a laboratory scale. This paper describes the
dimensional design of the rig, to derive its overall scaling strategy
and to determine the key elements’ specifications. Finite element
(FE) modelling is used to simulate the mechanical behavior of the rig
with two sample scale factors of 1/5 and 1/7. The results of FE
models are compared with the actual railway system to observe the
effectiveness of the chosen scales. The mechanical properties of the
components and variables of the system are finally determined
through the design process.
Abstract: Human movement in the real world provides
important information for developing human behaviour models and
simulations. However, it is difficult to assess ‘real’ human behaviour
since there is no established method available. As part of the AUNTSUE
(Accessibility and User Needs in Transport – Sustainable Urban
Environments) project, this research aimed to propose a method to
assess human movement and behaviour in crowded areas. The
method is based on the three major steps of video recording,
conceptual behavior modelling and video analysis. The focus is on
individual human movement and behaviour in normal situations
(panic situations are not considered) and the interactions between
individuals in localized areas. Emphasis is placed on gaining
knowledge of characteristics of human movement and behaviour in
the real world that can be modelled in the virtual environment.
Abstract: This paper presents a 4-DOF nonlinear model of a
cracked de Laval rotor-stator system derived based on Energy
Principles. The model has been used to simulate coupled torsionallateral
response of the faulty system with multiple parametric
excitations; rotor-stator-rub, a breathing transverse crack, eccentric
mass and an axial force. Nonlinearity of a “breathing” crack is
incorporated in the model using a simple hinge mechanism suitable
for a shallow crack. Response of the system while passing via its
critical speed with intermittent rotor-stator rub is analyzed. Effects of
eccentricity with phase and acceleration are investigated. Features of
crack, rub and eccentricity in vibration response are explored for
condition monitoring. The presence of a crack and rub are observable
in the power spectrum despite excitations by an axial force and rotor
unbalance. Obtained results are consistent with existing literature and
could be adopted into rotor condition monitoring strategies.
Abstract: The organizations of European and Czech critical
infrastructure have specific position, mission, characteristics and
behaviour in European Union and Czech state/business environments,
regarding specific requirements for regional and global security
environments. They must respect policy of national security and
global rules, requirements and standards in all their inherent and
outer processes of supply - customer chains and networks. A
controlling is generalized capability to have control over situational
policy. This paper aims and purposes are to introduce the controlling
as quite new necessary process attribute providing for critical
infrastructure is environment the capability and profit to achieve its
commitment regarding to the effectiveness of the quality
management system in meeting customer/ user requirements and also
the continual improvement of critical infrastructure organization’s
processes overall performance and efficiency, as well as its societal
security via continual planning improvement via DYVELOP
modelling.
Abstract: Well-designed composite steel and concrete structures
highlight the good material properties and lower the deficiencies of
steel and concrete, in particular they make use of high tensile strength
of steel and high stiffness of concrete. The most common composite
steel and concrete structure is a simply supported beam, which
concrete slab transferring the slab load to a beam is connected to the
steel cross-section. The aim of this paper is to find the most adequate
numerical model of a simply supported composite beam with the
cross-sectional and material parameters based on the results of a
processed parametric study and numerical analysis. The paper also
evaluates the suitability of using compact concrete with the
lightweight aggregates for composite steel and concrete beams. The
most adequate numerical model will be used in the resent future to
compare the results of laboratory tests.
Abstract: The mathematical analysis on radiation obtained and
the development of the solar photovoltaic (PV) array groundwater
pumping is needed in the rural areas of Thohoyandou for sizing and
power performance subject to the climate conditions within the area.
A simple methodology approach is developed for the directed
coupled solar, controller and submersible ground water pump system.
The system consists of a PV array, pump controller and submerged
pump, battery backup and charger controller. For this reason, the
theoretical solar radiation is obtained for optimal predictions and
system performance in order to achieve different design and
operating parameters. Here the examination of the PV schematic
module in a Direct Current (DC) application is used for obtainable
maximum solar power energy for water pumping. In this paper, a
simple efficient photovoltaic water pumping system is presented with
its theoretical studies and mathematical modeling of photovoltaics
(PV) system.
Abstract: Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns
with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes.
Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become
increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty
related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed
changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an
increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although
the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general
picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and
frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary
characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate
change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic
downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models
(RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric
physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields
as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture
the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a
basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical
relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called
predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands.
The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical
downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological
variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then
served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to
obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other
hydrological variables of interest.
Abstract: We used high-precision Global Positioning System
(GPS) to geodetically constrain the motion of stations in the
Darjiling-Sikkim Himalayan (DSH) wedge and examine the
deformation at the Indian-Tibetan plate boundary using IGS
(International GPS Service) fiducial stations. High-precision GPS
based displacement and velocity field was measured in the DSH
between 1997 and 2009. To obtain additional insight north of the
Indo-Tibetan border and in the Darjiling-Sikkim-Tibet (DaSiT)
wedge, published velocities from four stations J037, XIGA, J029 and
YADO were also included in the analysis. India-fixed velocities or
the back-slip was computed relative to the pole of rotation of the
Indian Plate (Latitude 52.97 ± 0.22º, Longitude - 0.30 ± 3.76º, and
Angular Velocity 0.500 ± 0.008º/ Myr) in the DaSiT wedge.
Dislocation modelling was carried out with the back-slip to model the
best possible solution of a finite rectangular dislocation or the
causative fault based on dislocation theory that produced the
observed back-slip using a forward modelling approach. To find the
best possible solution, three different models were attempted. First,
slip along a single thrust fault, then two thrust faults and in finally,
three thrust faults were modelled to simulate the back-slip in the
DaSiT wedge. The three-fault case bests the measured displacements
and is taken as the best possible solution.
Abstract: This work presents the modelling and simulation of
saponification of ethyl acetate in the presence of sodium hydroxide in
a plug flow reactor using Aspen Plus simulation software. Plug flow
reactors are widely used in the industry due to the non-mixing
property. The use of plug flow reactors becomes significant when
there is a need for continuous large scale reaction or fast reaction.
Plug flow reactors have a high volumetric unit conversion as the
occurrence for side reactions is minimum. In this research Aspen Plus
V8.0 has been successfully used to simulate the plug flow reactor. In
order to simulate the process as accurately as possible HYSYS Peng-
Robinson EOS package was used as the property method. The results
obtained from the simulation were verified by the experiment carried
out in the EDIBON plug flow reactor module. The correlation
coefficient (r2) was 0.98 and it proved that simulation results
satisfactorily fit for the experimental model. The developed model
can be used as a guide for understanding the reaction kinetics of a
plug flow reactor.
Abstract: The study examines the influence of marital status on
consumers of products and services using blogs as a source of
information. A pre-designed questionnaire was used to collect the
primary data from the respondents (experiences). Data were collected
from one hundred and eighty seven respondents residing in and
around the Emirates of Sharjah and Dubai of the United Arab
Emirates. The collected data was analyzed with the help of statistical
tools such as averages, percentages, factor analysis, Student’s t-test
and Structural Equation Modelling Technique.
Objectives of the study are to know the reasons how married and
unmarried or single consumers of products and services are
motivated to use blogs as a source of information, to know whether
the consumers of products and services irrespective of their marital
status share their views and experiences with other bloggers and to
know the respondents’ future intentions towards blogging.
The study revealed the following: Majority of the respondents
have the motivation to blog because they are willing to receive
comments on what they post about services, convenience of blogs to
search for information about services and products, by blogging
respondents share information on the symptoms of a disease/ disorder
that may be experienced by someone, helps to share information
about ready to cook mix products and are keen to spend more time
blogging in the future.
Abstract: A continuous time model of the interaction between
crop insect pests and naturally beneficial pest enemies is created
using a set of simultaneous, non-linear, ordinary differential
equations incorporating natural death rates based on the Weibull
distribution. The crop pest is present in all its life-cycle stages of:
egg, larva, pupa and adult. The beneficial insects, parasitoid wasps,
may be present in either or all parasitized: eggs, larva and pupa.
Population modelling is used to estimate the quantity of the natural
pest enemies that should be introduced into the pest infested
environment to suppress the pest population density to an
economically acceptable level within a prescribed number of days.
The results obtained illustrate the effect of different combinations of
parasitoid wasps, using the Pascal distribution to estimate their
success in parasitizing different pest developmental stages, to deliver
pest control to a sustainable level. Effective control, within a
prescribed number of days, is established by the deployment of two
or all three species of wasps, which partially destroy pest: egg, larvae
and pupae stages. The selected scenarios demonstrate effective
sustainable control of the pest in less than thirty days.
Abstract: This paper presents a neural network based model predictive control (MPC) strategy to control a strongly exothermic reaction with complicated nonlinear kinetics given by Chylla-Haase polymerization reactor that requires a very precise temperature control to maintain product uniformity. In the benchmark scenario, the operation of the reactor must be guaranteed under various disturbing influences, e.g., changing ambient temperatures or impurity of the monomer. Such a process usually controlled by conventional cascade control, it provides a robust operation, but often lacks accuracy concerning the required strict temperature tolerances. The predictive control strategy based on the RBF neural model is applied to solve this problem to achieve set-point tracking of the reactor temperature against disturbances. The result shows that the RBF based model predictive control gives reliable result in the presence of some disturbances and keeps the reactor temperature within a tight tolerance range around the desired reaction temperature.