Flood Scenarios for Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Modelling
Future flood can be predicted using the probable
maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical
discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters
remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the
key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea
level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or
catchment scale these important climatic variables should be
considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more
suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy
basin and presented in this paper.
[1] J. J. McCarthy, Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and
vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the third assessment
report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge
University Press, 2001.
[2] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul et al., “Numerical
modelling for the extreme flood events in the Fitzroy basin, Queensland,
Australia,” International Journal of Environmental Science and
Development, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 346-350, June 2013.
[3] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, R. H. Sharma, and F.
Akram, "Watershed delineation and cross-section extraction from DEM
for flood modelling," In 19th Australasian Fluid Mechanics Conference,
Melbourne, Australia, 8-11 December 2014.
[4] IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; The Fourth
Assessment Report of the Climate Change, 2007.
[5] B. L. Finlayson, and T. A. McMahon, “Runoff variability in Australia.
Causes and environmental consequences,” Perth, Australia, 1991, pp.
504-511.
[6] Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Annual Sea Level Data Summary
Report, July 2010-June 2011, The Australian Baseline Sea Level
Monitoring Project, National Tidal Centre (Internet),
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60202/IDO60202.2011.pdf (accessed
28.01.2015).
[7] N. Nicholls, and D. Collins, “Observed climate change in Australia over
the past century,” Energy and Environment, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 1-12,
2006.
[8] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, R. H. Sharma, and F.
Akram, "A review of downscaling and 1-D/2-D hydraulic model for
flood studies," In Proceedings of the Central Region Engineering
Conference, Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia, 10-11 August 2012,
pp. 80-85.
[9] Australian Federal Government’s Climate Commission, 2011. The
Critical Decade (Internet). http://climatecommission.files.wordpress.
com/2013/09/the-critical-decade-2013_website.pdf (accessed
28.01.2015).
[10] T. A. McMahon, B. L. Finlayson, A. T. Haines, and R. Srikanthan,
Global runoff: continental comparisons of annual flows and peak
discharges: Catena Verlag, 1992.
[11] Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Baseline Sea Level
Monitoring Project (Internet). www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/projects/
abslmp/abslmp.shtml (accessed 28.01.2015).
[12] J. Church, N. White, J. Hunter, K. McInnes, P. Cowell, and S. O’Farrell,
Sea-level rise: CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Victoria, 2008.
[13] J. A. Church, J. R. Hunter, K. L. McInnes, and N. J. White, Sea-level
rise around the Australian coastline and the changing frequency of
extreme sea-level events, Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol. 55,
no. 4, pp. 253-260, 2006.
[14] A. Parker, M. Saad Saleem, and M. Lawson, “Sea-level trend analysis
for coastal management,” Ocean & Coastal Management, vol. 73, pp.
63-81, 2013.
[15] T. D. Keenan, and H. A. Cleugh, Climate science update: a report to the
2011 Garnaut review, Technical Report No. 036, Centre for Australian
Weather and Climate Research, 2011.
[16] J. Callaghan, and S. Power, “Variability and decline in the number of
severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since
the late nineteenth century,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 37, no. 3-4, pp.
647-662, 2011/08/01, 2011.
[17] K. Walsh, K.-C. Nguyen, and J. McGregor, “Fine-resolution regional
climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical
cyclones near Australia,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 47-56,
2004.
[18] L. Leslie, D. Karoly, M. Leplastrier et al., “Variability of tropical
cyclones over the southwest Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution
climate model,” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, vol. 97, no. 1-4,
pp. 171-180, 2007.
[19] D. Abbs, S. Aryal, E. Campbell, J. McGregor, K. Nguyen, M. Palmer, T.
Rafter, I. Watterson, and B. Bates, Projections of extreme rainfall and
cyclones, A report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra,
Australia, 2006.
[20] J. Sammut, and W. D. Erskine, “Age and hydrological significance of
lichen limits on sandstone river channels near Sydney, Australia,”
Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, vol. 95, no. 3, pp.
227-239, 2013.
[21] D. Patel, and P. Srivastava, "Application of Geo-Spatial Technique for
Flood Inundation Mapping of Low Lying Areas," Remote Sensing
Applications in Environmental Research, Society of Earth Scientists
Series P. K. Srivastava, S. Mukherjee, M. Gupta et al., eds., pp. 113-130:
Springer International Publishing, 2014.
[22] L. S. Kuchment, and A. N. Gelfan, “Assessment of extreme flood
characteristics based on a dynamic-stochastic model of runoff generation
and the probable maximum discharge,” Journal of Flood Risk
Management, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 115-127, 2011.
[23] W. Yigzaw, F. Hossain, and A. Kalyanapu, “Comparison of PMPDriven
Probable Maximum Floods with Flood Magnitudes due to
Increasingly Urbanized Catchment: The Case of American River
Watershed,” Earth Interactions, vol. 17, no. 8, pp. 1-15, 2013.
[24] D. B. Wright, J. A. Smith, G. Villarini et al., “Estimating the frequency
of extreme rainfall using weather radar and stochastic storm
transposition,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 488, no. 0, pp. 150-165, 2013.
[25] M. C. Casas, R. Rodríguez, M. Prohom et al., “Estimation of the
probable maximum precipitation in Barcelona (Spain),” International
Journal of Climatology, vol. 31, no. 9, pp. 1322-1327, 2011.
[26] D. Patel, and P. Srivastava, “Flood Hazards Mitigation Analysis Using
Remote Sensing and GIS: Correspondence with Town Planning
Scheme,” Water Resources Management, vol. 27, no. 7, pp. 2353-2368,
2013.
[27] J. Yazdi, and S. A. A. Salehi Neyshabouri, “Optimal design of floodcontrol
multi-reservoir system on a watershed scale,” Natural Hazards,
vol. 63, no. 2, pp. 629-646, 2012.
[28] Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Climate Change in the
Netherlands (Internet). http://www.knmi.nl/bibliotheek/
klimaatbrochures/supplementsto06scenarios.pdf (accessed 28.01.2015).
[29] N. W. Arnell, and S. N. Gosling, “The impacts of climate change on
river flow regimes at the global scale,” Journal of Hydrology, 2013.
[30] A. Bakker, B. Van den Hurk, J. Bessembinder et al., “Standard years for
large-scale hydrological scenario simulations,” Environmental
Modelling & Software, vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 797-803, 2011.
[31] J. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. Griggs et al., “IPCC, 2001: Climate Change
2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change,” Cambridge, United Kingdom, New York, USA, Cambridge
University Press, vol. 881, pp. 9, 2001.
[32] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, R. H. Sharma, and F.
Akram, "Rainfall, temperature and evaporation trends in the Fitzroy
Basin, Queensland, Australia," In 34th Hydrology and Water Resources
Symposium, Sydney, Australia, 19-22 November 2012.
[33] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, R. H. Sharma, and F.
Akram, “Automatic Multi-Objective Calibration of a Rainfall Runoff
Model for the Fitzroy Basin, Queensland, Australia,” International
Journal of Environmental Science and Development, vol. 4, no. 3, pp.
311-315, June 2013.
[34] Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and
Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia, Technical Report
2007 (Internet). http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Divisions/
Marine--Atmospheric-Research/Climate-Change-Technical-Report-
2007.aspx (accessed 28.01.2015)."
[35] X. Zhou, J. Zheng, D.-J. Doong et al., “Sea level rise along the East Asia
and Chinese coasts and its role on the morphodynamic response of the
Yangtze River Estuary,” Ocean Engineering, vol. 71, pp. 40-50, 10/1/,
2013.
[36] HYMOS 4, User Manual.
[37] IEAust, Australian Rainfall and Runoff - A Guide to flood estimation,
Engineers Australia, 1997.
[38] R. Alam, Z. H. Khan, M. S. I. I. Amir, and S. Akhter, "Model Study for
prediction of thermal discharge diffusion for proposed 360 MW
combined cycle power plant at Haripur," In 2nd International Conference
on Water and Flood Management, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 15-17 March
2009.
[1] J. J. McCarthy, Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and
vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the third assessment
report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge
University Press, 2001.
[2] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul et al., “Numerical
modelling for the extreme flood events in the Fitzroy basin, Queensland,
Australia,” International Journal of Environmental Science and
Development, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 346-350, June 2013.
[3] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, R. H. Sharma, and F.
Akram, "Watershed delineation and cross-section extraction from DEM
for flood modelling," In 19th Australasian Fluid Mechanics Conference,
Melbourne, Australia, 8-11 December 2014.
[4] IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; The Fourth
Assessment Report of the Climate Change, 2007.
[5] B. L. Finlayson, and T. A. McMahon, “Runoff variability in Australia.
Causes and environmental consequences,” Perth, Australia, 1991, pp.
504-511.
[6] Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Annual Sea Level Data Summary
Report, July 2010-June 2011, The Australian Baseline Sea Level
Monitoring Project, National Tidal Centre (Internet),
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60202/IDO60202.2011.pdf (accessed
28.01.2015).
[7] N. Nicholls, and D. Collins, “Observed climate change in Australia over
the past century,” Energy and Environment, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 1-12,
2006.
[8] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, R. H. Sharma, and F.
Akram, "A review of downscaling and 1-D/2-D hydraulic model for
flood studies," In Proceedings of the Central Region Engineering
Conference, Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia, 10-11 August 2012,
pp. 80-85.
[9] Australian Federal Government’s Climate Commission, 2011. The
Critical Decade (Internet). http://climatecommission.files.wordpress.
com/2013/09/the-critical-decade-2013_website.pdf (accessed
28.01.2015).
[10] T. A. McMahon, B. L. Finlayson, A. T. Haines, and R. Srikanthan,
Global runoff: continental comparisons of annual flows and peak
discharges: Catena Verlag, 1992.
[11] Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Baseline Sea Level
Monitoring Project (Internet). www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/projects/
abslmp/abslmp.shtml (accessed 28.01.2015).
[12] J. Church, N. White, J. Hunter, K. McInnes, P. Cowell, and S. O’Farrell,
Sea-level rise: CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Victoria, 2008.
[13] J. A. Church, J. R. Hunter, K. L. McInnes, and N. J. White, Sea-level
rise around the Australian coastline and the changing frequency of
extreme sea-level events, Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol. 55,
no. 4, pp. 253-260, 2006.
[14] A. Parker, M. Saad Saleem, and M. Lawson, “Sea-level trend analysis
for coastal management,” Ocean & Coastal Management, vol. 73, pp.
63-81, 2013.
[15] T. D. Keenan, and H. A. Cleugh, Climate science update: a report to the
2011 Garnaut review, Technical Report No. 036, Centre for Australian
Weather and Climate Research, 2011.
[16] J. Callaghan, and S. Power, “Variability and decline in the number of
severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since
the late nineteenth century,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 37, no. 3-4, pp.
647-662, 2011/08/01, 2011.
[17] K. Walsh, K.-C. Nguyen, and J. McGregor, “Fine-resolution regional
climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical
cyclones near Australia,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 47-56,
2004.
[18] L. Leslie, D. Karoly, M. Leplastrier et al., “Variability of tropical
cyclones over the southwest Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution
climate model,” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, vol. 97, no. 1-4,
pp. 171-180, 2007.
[19] D. Abbs, S. Aryal, E. Campbell, J. McGregor, K. Nguyen, M. Palmer, T.
Rafter, I. Watterson, and B. Bates, Projections of extreme rainfall and
cyclones, A report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra,
Australia, 2006.
[20] J. Sammut, and W. D. Erskine, “Age and hydrological significance of
lichen limits on sandstone river channels near Sydney, Australia,”
Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, vol. 95, no. 3, pp.
227-239, 2013.
[21] D. Patel, and P. Srivastava, "Application of Geo-Spatial Technique for
Flood Inundation Mapping of Low Lying Areas," Remote Sensing
Applications in Environmental Research, Society of Earth Scientists
Series P. K. Srivastava, S. Mukherjee, M. Gupta et al., eds., pp. 113-130:
Springer International Publishing, 2014.
[22] L. S. Kuchment, and A. N. Gelfan, “Assessment of extreme flood
characteristics based on a dynamic-stochastic model of runoff generation
and the probable maximum discharge,” Journal of Flood Risk
Management, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 115-127, 2011.
[23] W. Yigzaw, F. Hossain, and A. Kalyanapu, “Comparison of PMPDriven
Probable Maximum Floods with Flood Magnitudes due to
Increasingly Urbanized Catchment: The Case of American River
Watershed,” Earth Interactions, vol. 17, no. 8, pp. 1-15, 2013.
[24] D. B. Wright, J. A. Smith, G. Villarini et al., “Estimating the frequency
of extreme rainfall using weather radar and stochastic storm
transposition,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 488, no. 0, pp. 150-165, 2013.
[25] M. C. Casas, R. Rodríguez, M. Prohom et al., “Estimation of the
probable maximum precipitation in Barcelona (Spain),” International
Journal of Climatology, vol. 31, no. 9, pp. 1322-1327, 2011.
[26] D. Patel, and P. Srivastava, “Flood Hazards Mitigation Analysis Using
Remote Sensing and GIS: Correspondence with Town Planning
Scheme,” Water Resources Management, vol. 27, no. 7, pp. 2353-2368,
2013.
[27] J. Yazdi, and S. A. A. Salehi Neyshabouri, “Optimal design of floodcontrol
multi-reservoir system on a watershed scale,” Natural Hazards,
vol. 63, no. 2, pp. 629-646, 2012.
[28] Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Climate Change in the
Netherlands (Internet). http://www.knmi.nl/bibliotheek/
klimaatbrochures/supplementsto06scenarios.pdf (accessed 28.01.2015).
[29] N. W. Arnell, and S. N. Gosling, “The impacts of climate change on
river flow regimes at the global scale,” Journal of Hydrology, 2013.
[30] A. Bakker, B. Van den Hurk, J. Bessembinder et al., “Standard years for
large-scale hydrological scenario simulations,” Environmental
Modelling & Software, vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 797-803, 2011.
[31] J. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. Griggs et al., “IPCC, 2001: Climate Change
2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change,” Cambridge, United Kingdom, New York, USA, Cambridge
University Press, vol. 881, pp. 9, 2001.
[32] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, R. H. Sharma, and F.
Akram, "Rainfall, temperature and evaporation trends in the Fitzroy
Basin, Queensland, Australia," In 34th Hydrology and Water Resources
Symposium, Sydney, Australia, 19-22 November 2012.
[33] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, R. H. Sharma, and F.
Akram, “Automatic Multi-Objective Calibration of a Rainfall Runoff
Model for the Fitzroy Basin, Queensland, Australia,” International
Journal of Environmental Science and Development, vol. 4, no. 3, pp.
311-315, June 2013.
[34] Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and
Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia, Technical Report
2007 (Internet). http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Divisions/
Marine--Atmospheric-Research/Climate-Change-Technical-Report-
2007.aspx (accessed 28.01.2015)."
[35] X. Zhou, J. Zheng, D.-J. Doong et al., “Sea level rise along the East Asia
and Chinese coasts and its role on the morphodynamic response of the
Yangtze River Estuary,” Ocean Engineering, vol. 71, pp. 40-50, 10/1/,
2013.
[36] HYMOS 4, User Manual.
[37] IEAust, Australian Rainfall and Runoff - A Guide to flood estimation,
Engineers Australia, 1997.
[38] R. Alam, Z. H. Khan, M. S. I. I. Amir, and S. Akhter, "Model Study for
prediction of thermal discharge diffusion for proposed 360 MW
combined cycle power plant at Haripur," In 2nd International Conference
on Water and Flood Management, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 15-17 March
2009.
@article{"International Journal of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences:68894", author = "Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir and Mohammad Masud Kamal khan and Mohammad Golam Rasul and Raj H Sharma and Fatema Akram", title = "Flood Scenarios for Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Modelling", abstract = "Future flood can be predicted using the probable
maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical
discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters
remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the
key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea
level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or
catchment scale these important climatic variables should be
considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more
suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy
basin and presented in this paper.
", keywords = "Climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation,
scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment.", volume = "9", number = "2", pages = "44-6", }
